I appreciate your timely response and evaluation. I'm a bit disappointed but everything in your analysis is dead on. I read through a few other prospects I'm watching and must say my eye for talent isn't very good...this year anyway.
If Werner had been available at 29 would you have taken him or accepted the trade? He's the one of the few I pegged as a blue chip player.
Good Morning!! How I love the occasions when I get to sleep at night!!
Philosophically, I am such a
rabid fan of Trading Down ~ and that particular Trade was so
heavily tipped in our favor, from my Perspective ~ that I would've considered it even if
Star Lotulelei had still been on the Board.
Had I been running things, I would've traded Mallett to the highest Bidder, which I strongly suspect may very well have netted us #38 from the Cardinals, which would've greatly influenced my answer to your Query.
But I'm assuming that your Query precludes any such machinations...
Thinking, thinking, thinking...
Well, after much agonizing reflection, I am going to say that I'd've taken the Trade.
1 ~ Passing on
Bjoern Werner ~ or his TeamMate,
Tank Carradine, who I like even more and is still available ~ would probably cause me physical Pain, as I believe that the import of a Top Level Defensive End could ~ across from
Chandler Jones ~ cause a dramatic Ripple Effect for our Defense
far in excess of'is nominal Value.
2 ~ Therefore, the Opportunity Cost of passing on Werner & Carradine ~ for there's no way in Hell that either would be available, come #52 ~ could be
immense. If you care to read them, these Factors are what persuade me:
3 ~ We are aiming far higher, but
Rob Ninkovich was pretty adept on the Job in 2012, and I believe it's important to consider how much better he'll likely be in 2013, with a full Year of experience under'is belt.
4 ~
Jake Bequette & Justin Francis are unknown quantities ~ as indeed are Werner & Carradine, though less so ~ but I believe that they offer considerable UpSide, though not as dynamic, mind you.
5 ~ All of which is to say: I expect considerable improvement and substantially increased Impact in 2013, simply from developing who we already have at Defensive End, albeit not the Impact of Werner or Carradine.
6 ~ As such, the possibilities inherent in that remarkable Heist seduce me. If we trade down a few more times ~ and we should have no problems doing so ~ #29 could actually parlay into several of the following Prospects:
QB Sean Renfree ~ 6th/7th Round
OC Barrett Jones ~ 3rd/4th Round
OG Hugh Thornton ~ 4th/5th Round
OG Joe Tretter ~ 6th/7th Round
OT Reid Fragel ~ 4th/5th Round
TE Travis Kelce ~ 3rd/4th Round
XE Jordan Reed ~ 3rd/4th Round
SE Christopher Harper ~ 4th/5th Round
SE Corey Fuller ~ 6th/7th Round
FL Marquise Goodwin ~ 4th/5th Round
XB Marcus Lattimore ~ 4th/5th Round
XB Kerwynn Williams ~ 6th/7th Round
XB Latavius Murray ~ 6th/7th Round
XB Damon Harper ~ 6th/7th Round
DT Brandon Williams ~ 3rd/4th Round
DF DeVonte Holloman ~ 4th/5th Round
MF Keith Pough ~ 6th/7th Round
SS Duke Williams ~ 5th/6th Round
FS Josh Evans ~ 4th/5th Round
Except for Barrett Jones & Christopher Harper, I believe that every single Prospect on that list commands tremendous Impact Potential as a top level Starter in the NFL ~ and Jones & Harper are the kind of guys who're virtually guaranteed to be Starters and savvy, steadying Rocks for a Decade or so.
Every Year, the Fears, Prejudices, and Foolishness of NFL Leadership render the Prospects of dozens upon dozens of highly talented & motivated Prospects virtually
barren.
Most decision makers ~ it seems to me ~ get caught up in Statistics, Combine Numbers, and a misperceived notion of Pedigree, as well as their own lack of Vision, Judgment, and Testicular Fortitude.
That ~ and my belief that insufficient Depth of Talent has cost us
Six SuperBowls ~ is why I am so
maniacally aggressive in my Relentless Pursuit of Draft Picks.
~ I don't want
Scrubs backing up our Starters
and inevitably stepping in in the PlayOffs.
~ I want
future Starters & Studs & All Pros doing so.
And because of the continuing foolishness of most GM's...it's quite possible to
have that.
Every
Year.
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Wow.
That turned into a much longer Answer than I'd planned.
That's what a night of good sleep'll do!!
Addendum > In Summary, I, personally, would've taken the Trade, but had Coach Bill taken the theoretically available Bjoern Werner at #29, as you've posited, I would've
applauded the move!!
