Actually, the Patriots made it clear that they wanted Lloyd at a better price. I don't see how this translates to "we've certainly lost Lloyd".
Well, for starters he's not on the damn team, so I'm not sure what clue you'd need?
We're so optimistic now around here that we're going to start counting players who have been cut as being on the roster? Edelman's situation is different. He is a FA who has yet to be signed. I can understand those who want to count him as a member of the team. Llyod's situation is much different.
As you said, there is always a possibility that no other team will show any interest at anything close to the 3 million he was due to make, but I don't see why anyone should be overly confident either? It's not like this happens all the time around here.
Saying "you wouldn't be surprised if he came back" is one thing. I can totally see that opinion. Saying that "I'm expecting BOTH Llyod and Edelman to return" is something entirely different...and that is what I was addressing.
And the Patriots organization (and BB) is known for making decisions on a business basis, not a personal level. Hence BB resigns Branch despite the 2005 fiasco and resigns Ty Law despite the personal insults and lies that were publicly aired.
I have no idea if Lloyd will sign with the Patriots, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least were it to happen.
The bottom line is that they didn't want him for a very reasonable salary. I'm not sure how much lower they could go without any of the other 31 teams being interested in a proven vet receiver who had 75 catches and almost 1000 yds last year snagging passes from Tom Brady?
The expansion of the TC 'roster' to 90 players makes a guy who may have been previously team-less like Llyod that much more likely to find a spot somewhere as a WR3 or even WR4.
Your example of Branch (4-5 seasons later for cheap) is really the only thing we have to go on, and even that was due to being brought in mid-season after Moss was released. All of Law, Wilfork, Seymour etc all had public contractual issues but were re-signed based on their talent and importance, so they shouldn't be included in this discussion. Those were contractual problems. I'm not seeing a guy like Brandon Llyod in that same category. He was outright cut. I don't think that Belichick would have risked losing him to another team if he wasn't prepared to move on.
I'd see it as a 75% chance that we've moved on. You may see it differently, and I can understand that.