My Blueprint For the Pats

[Snake Eyes]

Edit: Bill's refusal to move Connolly to Center and Donald Thomas to RG, and Wendell to the bench
where he belongs, remains a constant source of frustration.

Thomas has been a pleasant surprise at LG but pretty bad at RG, at least from what we saw in the pre-season.

 

[Sciz]

Thomas has been a pleasant surprise at LG but pretty bad at RG, at least from what we saw in the pre-season.

And the Cardinals game.

 

[patsfaninpa]

And the Cardinals game.

Maybe the player he was playing against had more to do with his performance. Calais Campbell. Not the side of the line he was on. The whole OL was terrible in the pre-season. Not just D.Thomas.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Maybe the player he was playing against had more to do with his performance. Calais Campbell. Not the side of the line he was on. The whole OL was terrible in the pre-season. Not just D.Thomas.

He stunk at RG during the pre-season as well, not just against the Cards D-line.

Right now Cannon has been decent at RT but with time I think Dante can mold Long to be a force.

 

[captain stone]

Um, perhaps you might want to ask Scar why he thinks that C Wendell-G Connolly is better than C Connolly-G Thomas?

If I could I would, because Wendell sux. I can't believe he was kept over Koppen, or even Tennant.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thinking more about the salary cap and the team for 2013, we are going to be very hard pressed to sign external FAs, and probably hard pressed to retain all of our own key FAs. Which means that we may need to figure out ways to squeeze more productivity out of our current roster.

Going back to the secondary, which was my #1 priority in the OP, I think that the key changes have largely been accomplished, though injuries have limited their effect: Talib and Dennard outside have been solid, and moving Devin McCourty to FS has largely stopped the hemorrhaging that we saw earlier in the season. Although the San Francisco game was a bit of a debacle, part of that was due to offensive turnovers and poor special teams play leading to bad field position, boxing the defense in. Even in the Jacksonville game, which started out very poorly, the defense adjusted and held the Jaguars to 16 points. Since Talib has come on board the defense has given up 24, 19, 16, 14 and 16 points in 5 games, with the exception of the San Francisco game, for an average of 17.8 PPG in those 5 games.

I still think that continuity is important, and adding another inexperienced DB to the mix won't help much. Bringing in a FA safety like Kenny Phillips would be nice, but I can't see the team having the cap space.

The guy who I could see being a dark horse for playing a key role in the secondary next year is ... drum roll ... Ras-I Dowling. Yes, Ras-I Dowling. The guy many think of as the "Shawn Crable of the secondary". I understand that counting on Dowling is foolhardy, and I'm not suggesting doing that. We're not privileged to the team's information about his long term health, though I believe early reports were that he was expected to be fully healthy for next Spring's offseason activities. I know that he hasn't been able to play a full season since his junior year in college. But there's no doubt that Dowling has showed some nice flashes in his brief time - he started as a rookie and looked good before going on IR. It's not clear that he was every fully recovered this year.

I'm assuming that 2013 is a make-or-break year for Dowling. The team decided to shut him down and let him try to get healthy. Either he finally can play for a prolonged period of time, or he's not likely to be with the team much longer. In the former case, he offers the size and skill set to be a third press/man CB, and the physicality and ball skills to potentially play a big FS role alongside Devin McCourty.

In the ideal scenario, assuming Dowling is fully recovered and stays healthy, what would the Pats' secondary look like with it's current composition but using Dowling as a hybrid CB/S, instead of McCourty?

- Talib and Dennard would be the starting outside CBs
- Arrington would play the slot
- McCourty and Dowling would be the safeties, providing the kind of range and coverage ability that we've been lacking.

Now consider the depth and versatility options:

- Cole would play the dime
- Gregory and Wilson would provide depth at safety and play in "big nickel" situations
- If Talib or Dennard was injured or was otherwise out, Dowling could shift to CB without changing schemes, and Gregory/Wilson would move to safety opposite McCourty, allowing McCourty to remain at FS and anchor the secondary, playing an Earl Thomas kind of role
- Dowling and Talib would give the Pats' two 6'1" DBs who are capable of playing press-man coverage, allowing them to move Dowling outside when dealing with bigger WRs that might cause matchup problems for Dennard
- Dowling has the size and physicality to match up well with TEs

It's all predicated on Dowling getting healthy, playing up to his potential, and being able to adapt to playing safety as well as CB. That's a lot of question marks. Obviously, being able to afford a proven veteran safety would be a safer option. But unless the Pats are able to make such a move in the offseason, Dowling is the guy who has currently contributed nothing who has the most upside. If he's not going to end up as a wasted pick and actually contribute, he could really add something to the secondary.

Just food for thought.

 

[captain stone]

Even ass-uming that Glas-IR will someday see the field in a meaningful way, I feel that his skills
as a Safety would supplement those of McCourty rather than complement them. I'm hoping that
the future starting S/SS of the NEP - be he a rookie or vet FA - has experience actually playing
the position, is a stouter run defender/tackler than Gregory, and is a better pass defender than Chung.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Thinking more about the salary cap and the team for 2013, we are going to be very hard pressed to sign external FAs, and probably hard pressed to retain all of our own key FAs. Which means that we may need to figure out ways to squeeze more productivity out of our current roster.

Going back to the secondary, which was my #1 priority in the OP, I think that the key changes have largely been accomplished, though injuries have limited their effect: Talib and Dennard outside have been solid, and moving Devin McCourty to FS has largely stopped the hemorrhaging that we saw earlier in the season. Although the San Francisco game was a bit of a debacle, part of that was due to offensive turnovers and poor special teams play leading to bad field position, boxing the defense in. Even in the Jacksonville game, which started out very poorly, the defense adjusted and held the Jaguars to 16 points. Since Talib has come on board the defense has given up 24, 19, 16, 14 and 16 points in 5 games, with the exception of the San Francisco game, for an average of 17.8 PPG in those 5 games.

I still think that continuity is important, and adding another inexperienced DB to the mix won't help much. Bringing in a FA safety like Kenny Phillips would be nice, but I can't see the team having the cap space.

The guy who I could see being a dark horse for playing a key role in the secondary next year is ... drum roll ... Ras-I Dowling. Yes, Ras-I Dowling. The guy many think of as the "Shawn Crable of the secondary". I understand that counting on Dowling is foolhardy, and I'm not suggesting doing that. We're not privileged to the team's information about his long term health, though I believe early reports were that he was expected to be fully healthy for next Spring's offseason activities. I know that he hasn't been able to play a full season since his junior year in college. But there's no doubt that Dowling has showed some nice flashes in his brief time - he started as a rookie and looked good before going on IR. It's not clear that he was every fully recovered this year.

I'm assuming that 2013 is a make-or-break year for Dowling. The team decided to shut him down and let him try to get healthy. Either he finally can play for a prolonged period of time, or he's not likely to be with the team much longer. In the former case, he offers the size and skill set to be a third press/man CB, and the physicality and ball skills to potentially play a big FS role alongside Devin McCourty.

In the ideal scenario, assuming Dowling is fully recovered and stays healthy, what would the Pats' secondary look like with it's current composition but using Dowling as a hybrid CB/S, instead of McCourty?

- Talib and Dennard would be the starting outside CBs
- Arrington would play the slot
- McCourty and Dowling would be the safeties, providing the kind of range and coverage ability that we've been lacking.

Now consider the depth and versatility options:

- Cole would play the dime
- Gregory and Wilson would provide depth at safety and play in "big nickel" situations
- If Talib or Dennard was injured or was otherwise out, Dowling could shift to CB without changing schemes, and Gregory/Wilson would move to safety opposite McCourty, allowing McCourty to remain at FS and anchor the secondary, playing an Earl Thomas kind of role
- Dowling and Talib would give the Pats' two 6'1" DBs who are capable of playing press-man coverage, allowing them to move Dowling outside when dealing with bigger WRs that might cause matchup problems for Dennard
- Dowling has the size and physicality to match up well with TEs

It's all predicated on Dowling getting healthy, playing up to his potential, and being able to adapt to playing safety as well as CB. That's a lot of question marks. Obviously, being able to afford a proven veteran safety would be a safer option. But unless the Pats are able to make such a move in the offseason, Dowling is the guy who has currently contributed nothing who has the most upside. If he's not going to end up as a wasted pick and actually contribute, he could really add something to the secondary.

Just food for thought.

Sounds great if Dowling has game. Besides being made of glass, I question whether if he's even a good NFL player. Before being put on IR he was the dime back, behind Arrington and even Sterling Moore....

 

[mayoclinic]

Sounds great if Dowling has game. Besides being made of glass, I question whether if he's even a good NFL player. Before being put on IR he was the dime back, behind Arrington and even Sterling Moore....

If he was healthy at all. Who knows? He started 2 games as a rookie before injuring his hip. He team will be privy to his health status. We aren't.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Even ass-uming that Glas-IR will someday see the field in a meaningful way, I feel that his skills
as a Safety would supplement those of McCourty rather than complement them. I'm hoping that
the future starting S/SS of the NEP - be he a rookie or vet FA - has experience actually playing
the position, is a stouter run defender/tackler than Gregory, and is a better pass defender than Chung.

Those actually mean the same thing. . . .

 

[Off The Grid]

1 ~ Even back when I was Scouting Dowling ~ in our amateur sense ~ before the Draft, 2 years ago, I was describing'm as a Free Safety. Never did see the Verticity to play Press Corner, but that's me.

2 ~ In my eyes, the biggest move was McCourty to Free Safety, for that was the one that effected the Ripple Effect that substantially and immediately improved not only our play at Free Safety, but Strong Safety and MidFielder, as well...and indeed, the Defense as an whole benefited. But there's no question that Talib is having an Impact.

3 ~ I'd love to see us add Depth of Talent to Corner ~ a couple Draftees or UFA's to develop behind Talib, Dennard, and Arrington.

4 ~ And I'd love to see Dowling simply join McCourty at Free Safety, without being anything more than a 6th option at Corner: Maybe not having to Flip Hips all the time will save the wear and tear on'is wickets.

5 ~ And I'd love to see'm compliment'm and supplement'm. I like'm as a Backup and as a 2 Deep Partner.

6 ~ Wouldn't mind drafting another Corner/Free Safety Hybrid on top'f that, even allowing for keeping Wilson and Ebner around to develop. And if those two Rookie Corners had the Size & Range for Free Safety, all the better.

7 ~ I applaud my Brother Mayo's Fiscal Sanity!! I've always loudly declaimed the destructive Impact of dumping multiple Millions on guys who have to be trained in our System ~ just did so a day or two ago, in fact.

8 ~ All things considered, the Return On Investment of drafting and training your own Players dwarfs that ~ no, it absolutely annihilates that ~ of dumping multiple Millions on Free Agents.

 

[jsull87]

1 ~ Even back when I was Scouting Dowling ~ in our amateur sense ~ before the Draft, 2 years ago, I was describing'm as a Free Safety. Never did see the Verticity to play Press Corner, but that's me.

2 ~ In my eyes, the biggest move was McCourty to Free Safety, for that was the one that effected the Ripple Effect that substantially and immediately improved not only our play at Free Safety, but Strong Safety and MidFielder, as well...and indeed, the Defense as an whole benefited. But there's no question that Talib is having an Impact.

3 ~ I'd love to see us add Depth of Talent to Corner ~ a couple Draftees or UFA's to develop behind Talib, Dennard, and Arrington.

4 ~ And I'd love to see Dowling simply join McCourty at Free Safety, without being anything more than a 6th option at Corner: Maybe not having to Flip Hips all the time will save the wear and tear on'is wickets.

5 ~ And I'd love to see'm compliment'm and supplement'm. I like'm as a Backup and as a 2 Deep Partner.

6 ~ Wouldn't mind drafting another Corner/Free Safety Hybrid on top'f that, even allowing for keeping Wilson and Ebner around to develop. And if those two Rookie Corners had the Size & Range for Free Safety, all the better.

7 ~ I applaud my Brother Mayo's Fiscal Sanity!! I've always loudly declaimed the destructive Impact of dumping multiple Millions on guys who have to be trained in our System ~ just did so a day or two ago, in fact.

8 ~ All things considered, the Return On Investment of drafting and training your own Players dwarfs that ~ no, it absolutely annihilates that ~ of dumping multiple Millions on Free Agents.

I understand throwing a bit more at the DB possition. But my personal preference is letting this group stick together and get some continuity.

I think we have overhauled our LB corp to a point where we can call ourselves one of the top units in the NFL. I think Dennard Talib McCourty and Gregory can be a solid unit if given enough time and also let our rookie this year and ras-i fight it out with Gregory for the other saftey spot.

I want to keep investing in our DL. Jones and Wilfork are very good Love is a good run stopper, one more talent at DE and anothe ryear seasoning on this young group and i really think some strides will be made.

But in summary my preference is that DE/DT to play LE in the 4-3 and LDE in a 3-4.

 

[captain stone]

Those actually mean the same thing. . . .

Perhaps I should've used "replace" or "duplicate" instead of "supplement."
What I meant was that Glas-IR's skills are pretty much the same as McCourty's, and I would rather
have my other starting Base Safety bring more run-defending & intimidation skills to the position.
OTOH, I don't want him to be useless in pass defense either (see: Chung, Patrick).

 

[manxman2601]

Perhaps I should've used "replace" or "duplicate" instead of "supplement."
What I meant was that Glas-IR's skills are pretty much the same as McCourty's, and I would rather
have my other starting Base Safety bring more run-defending & intimidation skills to the position.
OTOH, I don't want him to be useless in pass defense either (see: Chung, Patrick).

"supplant" perhaps?

Damn grammar Nazi's

 

[mayoclinic]

So, with the regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start, here's some initial thoughts:

FA:

- Pats re-sign FAs Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington, Myron Pryor, Jake Ballard (RFA), Michael Hoomanawanui (RFA), Donald Thomas, Dane Fletcher, and one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (if Arrington can't be re-signed for reaosnable money then both Cole and Martin could be re-signed as the nickel/dime guys and STers); they will need to do some significant restructuring to accomplish this
- Let go: Deion Branch, Pat Chung, Trevor Scott (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Tracey White (would like to resign, but $$ may not be there), Niko Koutovides, Josh Barrett, Will Allen, Jamey Richard. Chung has salvaged a bit the past few weeks, but I just don't see enough to warrant re-signing him. White and Scott are valuable role players, but they aren't my priorities, and given the number of FAs and the cap situation, if someone has to go they are down the line. I'd welcome both back if it could be managed. Branch has had a great career, but it's time to move on. He'll be on the shadow roster for 2013.
- Cut/traded: Daniel Fells, Spencer Larsen, Brian Waters (retired), probably one of Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin (money issue, unless Kyle Arrington walks)
- External FAs: Pats sign QB Matt Cassel. I wouldn't mind picking up someone like DT Glenn Dorsey as an alternative to Pyror, but unless some money can be found, I'm not sure how to do it.

Draft:

All picks based on CBS Sports/NFL DraftScout's current (1/1) rankings (indicated in parentheses) and taken within 5 picks of their current order:

Trades:

- Pats trade 32 (590 points) to Dallas for 50 and 82 (580 points).
- Pats trade Ryan Mallett to Arizona for 102, 135 and a conditional 2013 pick;
- Pats trade their 2 7th round picks to Philly for #165 in the 6th round.

50. Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia (81). 6'3" 234#.

Freak! Physical freak with tremendous range and upside, will solve the LB coverage problems. Dont'a Hightower moves up on the line at times. If Trent Murphy declares, he is an option. Otherwise, the Pats flip this pick for a 2013 1st.

62. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon St. (57) 6' 182#.

Greyhound! Silky smooth WR with a bit of Reggie Wayne/Greg Jennings in his game. If the Pats re-sign Welker and Edelman, a WR group of Welker, Lloyd, Wheaton and Edelman would be very nice.

82. David Amerson, DB, North Carolina St. (83) 6'2" 194#.

Stud Horse! Big DB who was an interception machine in 2011 but struggled this year. Move him to safety along with McCourty, and he will match up beautifully on TEs and big WRs as well.

94. Cornelius "Tank" Carradine, DE, Florida St. (103) 6'5" 265#.

Wounded Beast! 1st round talent who slips because of ACL injury. Goes on PUP and probably gets a red shirt year, but could be another Chandler Jones. William Gholston (114) is intriguing, but his inconsistency is scary.

102. Brian Winters, OG, Kent St. (116) 6'5" 310#.

Stud Horse! Physical, tough, small school lineman reminiscent of Logan Mankins, should step in immediately and eventually take over at LG.

135. Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern (143). 6'3" 328#

Sleeper! Small school prospect with hints of Vince Wilfork kind of athleticism, had 8.5 sacks and 16.5 TFL playing NT this year. Can penetrate as well as be a space eater.

160. Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St. (161) 6'7" 305#.

Sleeper! Former TE with one year of experience at RT. Very athletic, could develop as a swing tackle or even eventual starter.

Lot of speed and athleticism with that draft, plus some physical toughness. A fair amount of overlap with Manx's draft - not surprising, given that we like a lot of the same guys, and he's had a big influence on my thoughts. It's ironic though that Manx currently has the Pats taking Tavon Austin in the 1st round - my binky at WR for the Pats for months, but I just wouldn't take a WR in the 1st - while I have them taking his binky Wheaton in the 2nd.

Initial 2013 Roster:

QB(2): Brady, Cassel
RB(5): Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Jeff Demps
WR(5): Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Markus Wheaton, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater
TE(4): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui
OT(5): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Reid Fragel, Markus Zukevics
OG/C(6): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Winters, Donald Thomas, Ryan Wendell, Nick McDonald

DT(5): Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick, Brandon Williams, Myron Pryor/Marcus Forston
DE(5): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Francis, Jake Bequette; Dont'a Hightower also plays DE; PUP/IR: Tank Carradine
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower (also plays DE), Brandon Spikes, Alec Ogletree, Dane Fletcher
S(5): Devin McCourty, David Amerson, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB(5): Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Marquice Cole/Derrick Martin

ST(3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Danny Aiken

That's 55 players. There would like be only four OTs, cutting the number to 54. The last cut would work itself out.

Note that if Alec Ogletree goes earlier than #50 the Pats try to flip #50 for a 2014 1st round pick, and then they probably try to re-sign Tracy White or Niko Koutovides later on, or promote Jeff Tarpinian from the PS. Either way, the Pats get a 1st round talent at #50 in Ogletree, or hopefully a 2014 1st.

I think this would address the major priorities expressed in the OP:

1. Fix the secondary: Talib/Dennard outside with Dowling for depth, and some combination of Arrington/Cole/Martin as the slot/nickel/dime/ST guys; McCourty staying at FS and becoming an Earl Thomas kind of safety and the QB of the secondary, with David Amerson developing as a big, rangy safety (perhaps an Adrian Wilson kind of player), with Gregory/Wilson as backups and playing the big nickel role, and Ebner for STs and development. I think this would be a very strong group.

2. The defensive line: Ninkovich/Cunningham/Francis/Scott has emerged as a nice platoon opposite Chandler Jones. I'd like to keep Scott but it may not be feasible. Hopefully Jake Bequette can step up and replace his productivity. In addition, if the Pats get Alec Ogletree it would allow Dont'a Hightower to play on the DL more, which should more than make up for Scott's loss. For the long term, Tank Carradine would be a potential stud DE opposite Chandler Jones. He would likely redshirt for 2013, but could be a force in 2014. Brandon Williams is an under-the-radar talent with 2nd round potential who could develop nicely as a rotational DL. He offers more athleticism and playmaking ability than Love or Deaderick. The return of Myron Pryor and/or the development of Marcus Forston (or picking up Glenn Dorsey in FA, a longshot given the cap situation) would add a penetrating interior lineman that we've needed.

3. The OL: extending Vollmer is key. Donald Thomas has been a nice surprise this year, and should be kept on. Brian Winters is a potential long term starter at OG. Reid Fragel offers athleticism and upside as a swing tackle, or even a long term starter.

4. Receivers: keeping Welker and Edelman and adding a WR like Wheaton gives a solid long term group. Sign Ballard and Hoomanawanui as depth behind Gronk and Hernandez and the Pats are in very, very good shape.

5. A coverage LB: Alec Ogletree would be far more than that, and well worth the #50 pick. He's a 1st round talent, and would allow the Pats to move Dont'a Hightower around more and take advantage of his versatility.

Add in an extra conditional pick for 2014. If Ogletree is gone, then an extra 1st, which could be used to snag some major talent.

 

[manxman2601]

As far as I'm concerned, that's close to a perfect mock. Would be deliriously happy with that.

 

[mayoclinic]

As far as I'm concerned, that's close to a perfect mock. Would be deliriously happy with that.

High praise indeed. But, as noted, it was highly influenced by yourself. :eat3:

 

[TFB*]

I know Amerson is a big, rangy ballhawk but how are his tackling abilities? I feel like DMC and Amerson would be the same type of player back there.

This may not be so bad because our front 7 is large, physical and very stout against the run so I would emphasize coverage skills over run support in the safety group. However, if you look at the two best secondaries, the 9ers and Seahawks, they both have safeties that can lay the boom.

We all know BB loves versatility. I wonder if we do get Amerson then will DMC or Amerson end up playing the star position in the nickel because of their experience at corner. Tavon could come in at safety to line up with the TE and either DMC or Amerson (if he proves hes capable) can play the deep part of the field.

Talib, Dennard, Amerson, DMC and Tavon have more talent and playmaking ability than just throwing Arrington or Cole out there as a nickel. Just a little wrinkle that could be used if we have two converted corners playing safety. Also need to factor in Ras-I but who knows what we'll get from him next season.

PS I was very impressed with Ogletree. I know he has some red flags but Id be surprised if he fell to 50.

 

[mayoclinic]

As far as I'm concerned, that's close to a perfect mock. Would be deliriously happy with that.

That scenario seems "Belichick-like" to me in a couple of respects:

- Pats pick up 2 1st round talents without using a 1st round pick. Ogletree and Carradine are both 1st round talents.
- Pats get a 1st round talent who falls due to injury, and red shirt him. Class Pats move.
- The trade back to 50 targeting Ogletree is a "win-win". If he's there, the Pats get a 1st round talent at 50. If he's not, they flip the pick into 2014 and load up for the future. Either way works for me.

 

[Ivan]

This may be an exceptionally dense question but are Mayoclinic and Off The Grid the same person?