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Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good


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It's definitely encouraging, but we haven't faced a really good QB with this combo, and won't next week either. There's something to be said for having a few games to get in sync though. It would be great if these guys could do what they did last night against Houston and San Fran.

There's a lot to be said for small steps and getting confidence. I didn't expect transformation overnight.

As for the "really good QB" argument, there just aren't that many in the NFL. Brady, Manning, Rodger, Brees, Eli Manning when on. Those are the best. Philip Rivers is having a down year, Ben Rothlisberger is beat up. Matt Schaub is better than what we've seen recently, but I'm not sure he's any better than Andrew Luck is right now, and he's no Manning/Rodgers. Colin Kaepernick is effectively a rookie and Alex Smith is nothing special.

As for the playoffs, we're like to see one or more out of Manning, Joe Flacco, Schaub, Rothlisberger or Luck to get to the Super Bowl. We've already faced Manning and Flacco with the old secondary; I think we would do better against the right now, much less in 6 weeks or so by which time the secondary should be significantly better. And I'll be content if they can feast on Sanchez and some inexperienced QBs and keep getting better in the process.
 
GREGORY

It seems that Gregory is part of our new 3-man safety unit. Maybe Wilson or a draftee will take reps from Gregory in 2013 and start.

So, no, Gregory isn't the foundation of our defensive backfield. Is it really pro-bowler or bust?

Last year, safety was a disaster position. The oft-injured Chung was the best we had. He is now our #4 safety, with our top 3 (and long-shot Ebner) coming back in 2013.

I have no problems in drafting a safety in a solid safety class. HOWEVER, McCourty, Gregory, Wilson is a reasonable set of safeties, with Ebner as a developmental 4th or 5th.

ARRINGTON

IMHO, Arrington will play half the defensive reps for someone next year (starter or nickel). I suspect that it will be elsewhere. He is a reasonable nickel back. I understand that the 2012 signings and draftees make it seem that corners/nickel backs are easy to find. I would note that that reasonable players have not been easy to find over the last couple of years. We are spoiled when we have been able to add Dennard, Talib and Cole.

But neither one is a player that I would in any way build around as a foundation of my defensive backfield. If they can produce within context, great. If not, find someone else who can.
 
There's a lot to be said for small steps and getting confidence. I didn't expect transformation overnight.

As for the "really good QB" argument, there just aren't that many in the NFL. Brady, Manning, Rodger, Brees, Eli Manning when on. Those are the best. Philip Rivers is having a down year, Ben Rothlisberger is beat up. Matt Schaub is better than what we've seen recently, but I'm not sure he's any better than Andrew Luck is right now, and he's no Manning/Rodgers. Colin Kaepernick is effectively a rookie and Alex Smith is nothing special.

As for the playoffs, we're like to see one or more out of Manning, Joe Flacco, Schaub, Rothlisberger or Luck to get to the Super Bowl. We've already faced Manning and Flacco with the old secondary; I think we would do better against the right now, much less in 6 weeks or so by which time the secondary should be significantly better. And I'll be content if they can feast on Sanchez and some inexperienced QBs and keep getting better in the process.

I agree that Shaub and whoever is playing for SF aren't all world. I was thinking more that our O won't be able to score so many points against their Ds, so we need our D to keep the point total down like it did last night.
 
I agree that Shaub and whoever is playing for SF aren't all world. I was thinking more that our O won't be able to score so many points against their Ds, so we need our D to keep the point total down like it did last night.

San Francisco clearly has a very good defense, and we'll have to work harder than we usually do t get points. Though the Pats moved the ball pretty much at will against Seattle, they just left a ton of points off the board, sometimes through no effort on Seattle's part (the end of the 1st half, for example).

Houston has been feast or famine on defense. They've had a lot of low scoring defensive performances, but they've allowed 30 or more points 3 times, which is more than we've done (twice), and they've allowed 42 and 37 points, which is higher than anything the Pats' D has allowed. I'm just not convinced their elite. Brian Cushing is out for the year, Brooks Reed has a groin pull which could be a nagging injury, and Jonathan Joseph is banged up. We'll see how healthy they are in 2 weeks, but I'm not convinced that the Pats can't put up 30+ on the Texans. Maybe more.
 
Reiss' defensive snap count from the Jets game:

Snaps: Safety depth & Chung - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Talib and Dennard led the way playing 71 of 72 snaps, every snap except for the 4th and goal from inside the 1 play. More snaps even than McCourty. Seems like things are settling down in terms of the constant DB shuffle, God granting that the players can stay healthy.
 
Remember a couple of the Jet completions early on were against Spikes & Hightower, BB was playing the run knowing that the Sanchize would turn the ball over given a chance. Against a passing team the subs would be different.

The Texans are balanced offensively with Their TE, WR and RB. This will be a very good measuring stick game for the Pats D.
 
There is room for cautious optimism, that's about as far as I will take it.

Our D did not look great nor like a complete sieve last night. I'd say though, that if this group can get a little healthier, and improve a little more each week it does have a chance to be more stout than we've become accustomed to.

Crazy as it sounds, I"m not worried about the D come playoff time. I'm worried about the O. For one reason or another, when push comes to shove they haven't gotten it done in the playoffs (2007, 2010, 2011) in the game they ultimately lost relative to what's expected of them.
 
Remember a couple of the Jet completions early on were against Spikes & Hightower, BB was playing the run knowing that the Sanchize would turn the ball over given a chance. Against a passing team the subs would be different.

The Texans are balanced offensively with Their TE, WR and RB. This will be a very good measuring stick game for the Pats D.

I would agree with that. Texans will be the toughest matchup for our D of the season. 49ers will be the toughest matchup for our O.
 
The turnovers were good but, much like the 2010 unit, this team can't rely on those alone in the postseason. The pass defense was still yielding too many yards through the air last night. If not for the turnovers, this would have been a much closer game.
 
I hope you enjoyed yourself Mr Talib. Now just sign an extension and be a major part of this going forward.
 
The turnovers were good but, much like the 2010 unit, this team can't rely on those alone in the postseason. The pass defense was still yielding too many yards through the air last night. If not for the turnovers, this would have been a much closer game.

Correct. But moving McCourty to safety, acquiring Talib, and starting Dennard, and moving Arrington back to the slot, all appear to be remarkable improvements. They are much more competitive than they were a few weeks ago, and this group has played together for only one game. There is every reason to think they will continue to improve as a unit. The return of Chung and especially Jones will further enhance capabilities. The trajectory here is promising.
 
This is the type of of improvement everyone has been looking for. I like to imagine this particular secondary playing that Baltimore game.

They will give up plays but at least they will be contested by aggressive playmaking cornerbacks from now on.
 
Reiss' defensive snap count from the Jets game:

Snaps: Safety depth & Chung - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Talib and Dennard led the way playing 71 of 72 snaps, every snap except for the 4th and goal from inside the 1 play. More snaps even than McCourty. Seems like things are settling down in terms of the constant DB shuffle, God granting that the players can stay healthy.

A couple other things that I thought were of note:

1.) The teamwork aspect of the secondary (i.e. handing a playoff off from S to CB or LB to S, etc....) looked improved.

2.) The team clearly looks more comfortable gambling on blitzes now that Talib/Dennard is the CB combo.
 
I would agree with that. Texans will be the toughest matchup for our D of the season. 49ers will be the toughest matchup for our O.

I'm kinda on the fence with the 49ers defense. I know they shine in all statistical categories, but I have watched them play and I'm not as impressed as I was last year. I feel like their secondary is suspect, especially because Carlos Rodgers hasn't been nearly as good as he was last year.

Here is one secret to their great numbers though. QB's the 49ers have played this year and the points they conceded:
Rodgers - 22
Stafford - 19
Ponder - 24
Sanchez - 0
Fitzpatrick - 3
E. Manning - 26
Wilson - 6
Skelton - 3
Bradford - 24
Campbell - 7

So basically their great PA/G average consists of completely shutting down all the worst QBs in that list (+ Fitz who is better than Bradford). They haven't really stopped the better QBs and despite holding Rodgers to 22 points is always a great feat, we have to remember that GB offense was coughing furballs early in the season and it wasn't until week 6 when they topped 30 points for the first time (with 42 against Houston).
 
From Curran:

Opposing wide receivers left desperately and totally alone along the sidelines for 20-something gains are becoming less frequent. Late-arriving defensive backs arriving without brakes and plowing into receivers have become scarce. The Patriots secondary is making incremental improvement. Just like it did last year. Bill Belichick sees it too.

"I think over the last couple of weeks we've made improvement there," Belichick said on a morning conference call Monday. "Steve (Gregory) coming back, Devin (McCourty) at safety and with (Aqib) Talib and Alfonzo (Dennard) switching sides; with Talib coming (to the team) in the past couple games . . . there's some moving parts there but I think those guys have worked hard to try to improve it and I think there are some positive signs and they need to continue to do that."

Belichick said that, although the Patriots' track record has been to build momentum and efficiency as a season progresses, improvement is not automatic.

"It can increase as the season goes along," Belichick said, speaking of the secondary's intuitiveness and anticipation specifically. "I don't think that's a given or something you can take for granted. The people that are involved in the rotation and the amount of opportunity that they get to practice, prepare, play and communicate together (leads to improvement)."

Belichick cited practice reps as being indispensable to being able to effectively carry out a game-day plan.

"If your scout team gives you a really good look at a play in practice and you get that play in the game it can really build your timing and help your anticipation," Belichick noted. "That can make a difference too. All those little things add up. Where one stops and the other starts, they're all interrelated and all a part of the end-result product. We just try to incrementally (improve) and hope that in the end the product (is effective)."

The Patriots have cycled through a slew of defensive backs this season. Injuries, ineffectiveness and skipping on from ineffective combinations have forced their hand into moving guys around. But it now seems the intangible and invaluable attributes of confidence, aggressiveness and trust are starting to emerge.

"You know how quickly it moves and how fast the game is, especially at that position," said Belichick. "Just a split-second of anticipation or of saved reaction time can make the difference between making a play and giving up a play and those split-seconds are very hard to measure but the difference can be the difference in a game. So if you think that it's improving, I think it should continue to improve, it needs to continue to improve. We've gotta really work hard at it. That's everybody."

Belichick is seeing secondary gains

Pretty honest assessment. Getting better, still has a ways to go. The basic pieces are in place, now consistency and lots of hard work are needed.
 
From Curran:



Belichick is seeing secondary gains

Pretty honest assessment. Getting better, still has a ways to go. The basic pieces are in place, now consistency and lots of hard work are needed.

I'm really ecstatic about next year.

It feels like we are 2-3 guys away from having a young, top 10 defense.

... wonder if Revis could be lured over for a ring and a nod? :biggrin2:
 
With Cunningham probably juicing, we really need to invest in DT talent or think about putting Hightower at end and drafting another LB
 
A couple other things that I thought were of note:

1.) The teamwork aspect of the secondary (i.e. handing a playoff off from S to CB or LB to S, etc....) looked improved.

2.) The team clearly looks more comfortable gambling on blitzes now that Talib/Dennard is the CB combo.

The Dolphins receiving corps is another one that this secondary can gain valuable experience with in its new structure with Gregory and McCourtney at safety, and Dennard and Talib at the corners. It's great to have Patrick Chung available as the 3rd safety and Kyle Arrington in a slot corner role in nickle or dime packages. It looks like true depth, and all six of those guys have closing speed. I'd like to see Chung blitz Tannehill some - he's a great hitter and from a dime package, that still leaves Gregory and McCourtney over the top.

Miami has a total of 8 TD receptions after 11 games. Their receivers aren't as bad as the Jets - Bess and Hartline each have 55 receptions right now and come with five/six years of experience. Neither is a #1 wideout for a playoff contender. TE Tony Fasano is a tough guy but a second-tier tight end along the lines of Justin Keller. The Patriots secondary should do fine against these guys who are neither physically imposing nor particularly gifted pass catchers.

This two-week period against the Jets and the Dolphins comes at a great time for the secondary to get ready for Houston and San Francisco which is a step up in class in the passing game.
 
I'm really ecstatic about next year.

It feels like we are 2-3 guys away from having a young, top 10 defense.

... wonder if Revis could be lured over for a ring and a nod? :biggrin2:

Revis wouldn't show up for his own team after his contract was up coming off an arc championship appearance. I see no reason. Why this one will be any different. His knee be dammed he will look for the big pay day once again.
 
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