It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RobertWeathers]

And again, you can't apply a science to a receiver's skills dismissing as each player is different. We can just go on what we know, and that's that Welker is healthy and just had a career season. Not sure what the hang up here is. Again, you're arguing on hypotheticals while I'm arguing on fact. .

Are you saying statistics and historical trends based on 100s of WRs who ever played the game should not be considered when making a multi-million dollar commitment to a 31 year-old player? I agree that WW looks like he will not slow down in the near future. We agree to disagree.

First, a slippery slope is a logical fallacy. Second, I would think that my point would be apparent. Welker was the only receiver on our offense that demanded double teams. As somebody that could do that patrolling the same area that Gronk and Hernandez did, it would seem apparent that he made Gronk's job easier. .

I'd consider Gronk a receiver has most certainly been double teamed.

Understood. That's the game of football. Injuries could occur at any time. As Pats fans, we understand this better than most. But the Pats don't bail out on contract proceedings based on that risk. If they did that, there wouldn't be any sense in them having a franchise. .

We agree.

1. You attempted to blast me earlier for bringing Brady into this. Now that your argument is falling flat on its face, you're bringing him in. Interesting turn of events that could go one of two ways. Either you can admit that the players mentioned are irrelevant to the argument at hand or you can admit that you just shot a hole in your primary argument. .

My bad. Let me clarify. From a contractual standpoint, QBs are in a completely different space than positional players.

2. Moss's payday in 2008 would indicate a failure in your initial sentence to support this point.

If anything, the terms Randy at age 31 agreed to prove my point...

3 years, $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, $12 million of which is in the form of a signing bonus.

Pats proposal to WW at age 31- 2yr/$16m guaranteed.

$1m more than Randy in guranteed $ and I'm guessing the singing bonuses might be comparable but I do not know that for a fact....

 

[Clonamery]

I like Ross Tucker's rebuttal to those who persist in trying to quantify that as a product of the system.

Denver in a heartbeat.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That would be my guess as well but it doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do. I was completely unaware that the CBA required teams to bargain in good faith and provided the reports to date on their offers are accurate then the Patriots are clearly in gross violation of that requirement. If they actually made him a reasonable offer that he rejected then it would be a different matter, but to date we haven't heard that.

We haven't heard anything one way or the other, actually.

Sometimes, I wonder if having a baseball-style arbitration would be a good thing in the NFL.

 

[patfanken]

Thanks for the real world analogy. I was going to hammer one out, but you beat me to the punch.

I was catching up on this thread, and thinking "why is no one looking at Adam's situation and comparing WW's to AV's?"

It seems clear to me that Route 1, right or wrong, places a fixed X dollar amount on Welker's postion, much like they did Vinatieri's. They aren't going to budge, no matter what any of us, media, or players whine about the "Patriots don't pay". IMO They simply say "this position has a budgeted number of X." and that's that.

The real world analogy: Joe works for ABC company, making widgets. Joe's the best widget maker known, and he gets $15 per hour to make widgets. Joe's been with the company forever, and he wants a raise. Joe knows that Pete, over in another dept., makes gadgets. Pete's ok at what he does, but he's no Joe. Gadget makers make more money, because gadgets sell for more. Joe finds out that Pete makes $25 per hour, and knows of guys making gadgets who make more than Pete. Joe says to management, "hey, I am the best at what I do, and I want to make $25 like Pete." Management, knowing they got Pete on the cheap, tell Joe no thanks. They also know Joe's replacement, while not as good or as productive, will cost them substantially less than Joe. They say "Joe, we love you, but widget makers top out at $15.50. Here's $15.50. If you make XX widgets, you can make $16. That's it." Management knows that even if production drops of in the widget dept. without Joe, they are going to spend maybe $8 on Joe's replacement.

Mo's "real world analogy" is hardly "real world" Its more like this: Joe you are the best widget maker around, and you have been for a long time. We appreciate it, but we also recognize that your skills are going to diminish in a few years. It could be this year, it could be next year, or it could be 3 years down the road if you are lucky. But the fact is your career as an elite widget maker is a lot closer to the end that it is to your prime. As a responsible company we have to deal with those realities.

BUT we have appreciated your efforts and production so here is what we would like to offer you. We will offer you a 2 year deal with a 150% raise over your current salary and we will fully guarantee it, because we all know that widget making is a very dangerous job. OR we will offer you a raise of close to 400% percent for one year an guarantee that.

We really want you to retire as our employee, but we also have a responsibility to the rest of our employees as well, so regardless of which deal you choose, we'd like to make you a good offer year to year that reflects whatever your production is.

Your analogy is better but again you ignore the fact that the company who manufactured the widgets were willing to offer Joe a significant raise on either a one or 2 year contract. Its not like they were rejecting his need to earn more for his efforts, they just weren't willing to pay him like the top gadget makers

If you look at it on those terms the Pats offer is neither an insult or cheap. Just not what the employee was hoping for.

 

[Steve102]

Mo's "real world analogy" is hardly "real world" Its more like this: Joe you are the best widget maker around, and you have been for a long time. We appreciate it, but we also recognize that your skills are going to diminish in a few years. It could be this year, it could be next year, or it could be 3 years down the road if you are lucky. But the fact is your career as an elite widget maker is a lot closer to the end that it is to your prime. As a responsible company we have to deal with those realities.

BUT we have appreciated your efforts and production so here is what we would like to offer you. We will offer you a 2 year deal with a 150% raise over your current salary and we will fully guarantee it, because we all know that widget making is a very dangerous job. OR we will offer you a raise of close to 400% percent for one year an guarantee that.

We really want you to retire as our employee, but we also have a responsibility to the rest of our employees as well, so regardless of which deal you choose, we'd like to make you a good offer year to year that reflects whatever your production is.

Your analogy is better but again you ignore the fact that the company who manufactured the widgets were willing to offer Joe a significant raise on either a one or 2 year contract. Its not like they were rejecting his need to earn more for his efforts, they just weren't willing to pay him like the top gadget makers

If you look at it on those terms the Pats offer is neither an insult or cheap. Just not what the employee was hoping for.

The %'s of my Joe vs Pete analogy are probably a bit off, but my take on it is it's the same as Adam's situation: the team values/budgets the position at X dollar amount, and that's it. They won't compare Wes' production to an outside receivers because it's a different position.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, yes get your critique in, it makes you feel better am all about community service so glad I could help. You need your ego stroked it's evident on every post you make, you try to find a word, a punctuation that you may turn around and criticize and try to put the other individual whom you are arguing against down or on the defensive immediately so the point is lost/muddled. It's a constant itch with you, cant help yourself. Have a friend who is a lawyer same deal cant get away from an argument(the philosophical meaning). So am glad I could help.

Nothing ego driven about it. You jumped into something and asked a question that was completely unrelated. I pointed that out, but still answered your question after noting it. Since you seem to want to start off with a troll for no good reason, I'll end this line of conversation right there.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Mo's "real world analogy" is hardly "real world" Its more like this: Joe you are the best widget maker around, and you have been for a long time. We appreciate it, but we also recognize that your skills are going to diminish in a few years. It could be this year, it could be next year, or it could be 3 years down the road if you are lucky. But the fact is your career as an elite widget maker is a lot closer to the end that it is to your prime. As a responsible company we have to deal with those realities.

BUT we have appreciated your efforts and production so here is what we would like to offer you. We will offer you a 2 year deal with a 150% raise over your current salary and we will fully guarantee it, because we all know that widget making is a very dangerous job. OR we will offer you a raise of close to 400% percent for one year an guarantee that.

We really want you to retire as our employee, but we also have a responsibility to the rest of our employees as well, so regardless of which deal you choose, we'd like to make you a good offer year to year that reflects whatever your production is.

Your analogy is better but again you ignore the fact that the company who manufactured the widgets were willing to offer Joe a significant raise on either a one or 2 year contract. Its not like they were rejecting his need to earn more for his efforts, they just were willing to pay him like the top gadget makers

If you look at it on those terms the Pats offer is neither an insult or cheap. Just not what the employee was hoping for.

Or

Dude, we know you have been the best widget maker. However, it our plan to bring widget production to the next level. As such, we are going to invest heavily in widget production equipment and the skillset required here is different than your skillset.

However, we are extending a very nice bump in salary through the transition.

Or

Dude, you have been great. However, the reality is farming out widget sub components means we will no longer need the master widget builder. However, please accept this great increase in pay through the transition.

This is similiar to when patsfaninpittsburgh was a military recruiter. Some dude came into the office and flatly stated he isn't signing anything but wanted to here about being a pilot.

pfip asked for his GPA. The "candidate" had a 2.56 GPA and was kindly informed he didn't qualify so further discussion was N/A. The "candidate" was aghast and refused to leave for the entire afternoon.

It got so bad through the next few weeks that patsfaninpittsburgh had to inform security that this guy really wasn't wanted back in the office again and again and again and again and....................

He refused to accept reality and that "it is what it is".

This post consists of 35 pages of refusal to accept that the New England Patriots are prepared to move on into the post- Wes Welker world.

The Vinatieri example was bad enough. The greivance angle is simply jumping the shark.

Ian, do you really want another 35 pages of irrelavent nonsense?

 

[BSR]

This is the same crap they pulled with Vinatieri. Tagged him once and then offered him a one year fully guaranteed deal they said they would continue to as long as he earned it. I don't think Adam has lived to regret his decision. In fact he's been to as many superbowls since as they have, only he has a 4th ring they don't. And banked about $20M more already than he'd have ever seen here. Even after spending a year on IR in 2009, they were loyal to him. Still with the Colts and making $2.7M this year and signed through 2014. Played here for 10 years and was the epitome of the clutch money kicker. He misses either of those kicks in the Snowbowl and Brady and Belichick might not still be here.

Interesting that you compare it to the Vinatieri situation. I know you don't think Adam regrets the decision but do you think the Patriots do? I don't. I think they are perfectly happy with their choice to let him go. I don't recall any big kicks that Gostkowski has missed.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I dont mean to get semantic. My definition of stopped is WW being double covered all game and being held to 1 catches for 12 yards, no 1st downs and zero TDs. Contained is 3 catches 29yds 1 first down and zero TDs.

I've never implied WW was ever "stopped".

I dont know what else to say, Andy. WW averages less 1st downs in the playoffs. They are certainly not all on him but I do believe a good margin as he is facing better players and better talent and better defensive schemes.

I'm saying that WW's across the board go down in the playoffs.

As do Brady's, not to mention the entire remainder of the supporting cast that the focus on Welker should only allow to improve. As did the defenses even back in the day when they were a top 5 unit. Funny thing how that works, as the level of consistent competition faced increases.

It's not as if any of them has a dropoff to oblivion though as do some clearly elite players.

Branch in his earlier stindt here was kind of the anthesis of that. For all the good it did him in getting paid for his value here.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo summed it up perfectly. The Pats are ok paying WW 2y @ $16m (They were until they reduced the offer). They are also ok paying him 1yr @ $9.4m.

They are not ok paying him 2 yr @ $22m.

WW at $8m/per is a steal.

That's not what I said. I said they were willing to pay him for 2 years @ $16m as long as he still had a year to go at $2.5M...which effectively allowed them to pay him $6M per for 3 years.

They are not OK paying him 2 years at $16M let alone more.

WW at $8M per is a steal, though. Even for a slot receiver.

 

[patman52]

It's amusing when the trolls come in pretending not to be trolls whilst suspiciously posting like trolls. Troll troll troll.

If Welker isn't extended in 2013 the very first place I'd have my agent knocking on the door is Denver with Peyton Manning.

And how much more will Denver offer him over the pats will next that would entice him to go.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Are you saying statistics and historical trends based on 100s of WRs who ever played the game should not be considered when making a multi-million dollar commitment to a 31 year-old player? I agree that WW looks like he will not slow down in the near future. We agree to disagree.

Only to the extent you acknowledge you are applying them to a player who has consistently outperformed them. That appears to be what they were not willing to do.

If anything, the terms Randy at age 31 agreed to prove my point...

3 years, $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, $12 million of which is in the form of a signing bonus.

Pats proposal to WW at age 31- 2yr/$16m guaranteed.

$1m more than Randy in guranteed $ and I'm guessing the singing bonuses might be comparable but I do not know that for a fact....

Those terms were offered to Randy 4 years ago... And Randy had a history of quitting on teams who stepped up and paid him as well as those who didn't opt to pay him more when he felt entitled to it. And leopards never change their spots. Wes was coming off 5 years of consistently outperforming his first big contract. For them. And never complaining about being grossly underpaid. Talk about apples and oranges.

 

[treeclimber]

Those terms were offered to Randy 4 years ago... And Randy had a history of quitting on teams who stepped up and paid him as well as those who didn't opt to pay him more when he felt entitled to it. And leopards never change their spots. Wes was coming off 5 years of consistently outperforming his first big contract. For them. And never complaining about being grossly underpaid. Talk about apples and oranges.

Apples n' oranges in the sense that Welker is no where even close to being on the same level as Moss as a receiver (or was as a receiver, however you want to put it).

Even with the bloated passing numbers this year, do people honestly think Welker would put up 1500 yards anywhere else in this league? No, not even close. He wouldn't even be the number one receiver on about half the teams in this league.

 

[Clonamery]

Apples n' oranges in the sense that Welker is no where even close to being on the same level as Moss as a receiver (or was as a receiver, however you want to put it).

Even with the bloated passing numbers this year, do people honestly think Welker would put up 1500 yards anywhere else in this league? No, not even close. He wouldn't even be the number one receiver on about half the teams in this league.

WW is a football player who plays wide receiver; Randy Moss is an athlete that plays wide receiver. How do you like them apples?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo's "real world analogy" is hardly "real world" Its more like this: Joe you are the best widget maker around, and you have been for a long time. We appreciate it, even though you'd never know it considering what we chose to continue paying you for the last 30 years , but we also recognize that your skills are going to diminish in a few years in our opinion even though you're only 55 and your production shows no signs of drop off and you planned to work just as hard for another 10 years so you could afford to retire comfortably. It could be this year, it could be next year, or it could be 3 years down the road if you are lucky. But the fact is your career as an elite widget maker is a lot closer to the end that it is to your prime. As a responsible company we have to deal with those realities.

BUT we have appreciated your efforts and production so here is what we would like to offer you. We will offer you a 2 year deal with a 150% raise over your current salary and we will fully guarantee it, because we all know that widget making is a very dangerous job. OR we will offer you a raise of close to 400% percent for one year an guarantee that.

We really want you to retire as our employee, but we also have a responsibility to the rest of our employees who will one day be in your shoes no matter how well they've performed for usas well, so regardless of which deal you choose, we'd like to somehow convince you we will also make you an offer year to year that reflects whatever we determine your value is relative to what your production we don't presently value nearly as highly as you do is. Even though we've got a track record including with you that proves we don't do that because we're value driven. And then we will retire you at an age when no other widget maker will likely have any interest in you. And by the way you really have no choice because your union signed a deal that says we can do whatever we want to you for the next 2-3 years and you can take it or quit working altogether.

Your analogy is better but again you ignore the fact that the company who manufactured the widgets were willing to offer Joe a significant raise on either a one or 2 year contract. Its not like they were rejecting his need to earn more for his efforts, they just weren't willing to pay him like the top gadget makers

If you look at it on those terms the Pats offer is neither an insult or cheap. Just not what the employee was hoping for.

Fixed that for you because each of your analogies fails to account for the fact that if Joe is that good a widget maker he could tell his boss to stick it and get a deal that will take him within spitting distance of his preferred retirement age earning 4 times what he's been making with more than twice as much guaranteed as his present employer is offering him because real unions don't sign CBA's that allow employees to be retained against their own interest.

 

[Deus Irae]

Apples n' oranges in the sense that Welker is no where even close to being on the same level as Moss as a receiver (or was as a receiver, however you want to put it).

Even with the bloated passing numbers this year, do people honestly think Welker would put up 1500 yards anywhere else in this league? No, not even close. He wouldn't even be the number one receiver on about half the teams in this league.

Source told @FOXSports.com that #Colts WR Pierre Garcon signed 5-yr, $42.5M contract with #Redskins. Roughly $21.5M guaranteed.

Garcon, 25, reportedly turned down a five-year, $35 million offer from the Colts. The four-year NFL veteran caught a career-high 70 passes for 947 yards and six touchdowns this past season.

/thread

Go troll somewhere else

 

[BradyFTW!]

I dont see it Kontra. Suffering a career-threatening injury at 29 and making a complete recovery has nothing to do with being a 32 year old WR with the liklihood of his skills and physical abilities gradually dimishing.

He's peaked as a player, I'll accept that. But even if he diminishes at a moderate rate, and three years from now is 80% of the player that he is today, that's still a WR who you could argue wouldn't be hugely overpaid. He has a long way to fall before his value drops to the Deion Branch tier.

Everyone gets hurt and that is the risk. The Pats philosophy is not to overpay for older players or commit to long term deals w/ big up-front $$ on players that in their mind, no longer have a upside or will maintaining the same level of production. We saw it with Law, Seymour, Vrable, etc. They paid Gronk, Brady, Mankins, etc because they felt strongly that they would produce at high-level over the meaty portion of the contract.

That's fair, and I'd mostly agree with it, although it depends on the years involved. If a three year deal was what it would have taken to get it done, then I would have made the deal and cut him in year 3 if his production had dropped precipitously. Don't really see what risk there is in signing Welker that wasn't also there for Mankins, Bodden, TBC, etc. Then again, maybe those contracts are exactly what the Pats learned from that's making them gun-shy now.

If they don't want to commit to Welker long-term because he's the odd one out in the Welker/Hernandez/Chung/Vollmer category, then I can sorta accept that, although i'd prioritize him far ahead of Chung. If they don't think that he can maintain his production for the next three years, then I disagree and I'd guess that they may be basing their decision off of fairly significant information that is not available to us (ie maybe he's been banged up an awful lot behind the scenes these past couple of seasons?)

 

[treeclimber]

/thread

Go troll somewhere else

1. How old are you? Do you expect people to take you seriously when you insult them? Poor insults at that, you sound like the average, prepubeescent youtube-r.

2. Your logic is severely flawed.

Try harder next time, man. You're better than this.

 

[RobertWeathers]

As do Brady's, not to mention the entire remainder of the supporting cast that the focus on Welker should only allow to improve. As did the defenses even back in the day when they were a top 5 unit. Funny thing how that works, as the level of consistent competition faced increases.

It's not as if any of them has a dropoff to oblivion though as do some clearly elite players.

Branch in his earlier stindt here was kind of the anthesis of that. For all the good it did him in getting paid for his value here.

Gronk had better numbers in the playoffs than the reg season. All depends on the player and the matchups. The player either rises above the competition of they don't.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's not what I said. I said they were willing to pay him for 2 years @ $16m as long as he still had a year to go at $2.5M...which effectively allowed them to pay him $6M per for 3 years.

They are not OK paying him 2 years at $16M let alone more.

WW at $8M per is a steal, though. Even for a slot receiver.

Starting to believe something else is going on......