It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[Clonamery]

This is the best thread of the off-season. Long live "It Looks Like No Deal..."

This thread is great because it's about the franchise tag for a guy we actually want around and neither side stepped out and disrespected the other. Best of all, the player deserves the compensation that comes with the tag and will be in uniform on time with lots to play for.

I thought the Pats should have done a three-year deal, but all is not lost here. Not at all. Welker can be tagged again and there was no agreement between the sides not to tag him for 2013 like we saw with Samuel and Mankins. The negotiations next summer will be for a two-year deal which fits the Pats better. Welker's monetary value will be determined by his health and production from the 2012 tagged year, so his value at age 32 and 33 will be easier to assess and fit into the cap. His market value will most likely be less at that age as a slot receiver.

The challenge for the Pats and Welker (with Brady's cap number hitting like an asteroid from space) is that the 2013 cap year is probably the most complicated under the new CBA as it is probably the last of the "flat" cap years (around $121 million per team) before the new broadcast deal kicks in in 2014.

Elsewhere there is a spirited debate about whether the 2014 money shows up in 2014 or 2015, but no matter, the NFL and NFLPA know how much revenue will come in through the new broadcast deal in 2014, so contracts will address the cash-flow issue for younger guys. Welker, Brady and guys in their early- to mid-30s will have to deal with cash-flow realities next summer. I imagine lots of dead money in 2015 - 2016 from the hangover created by 2013.

Training Camp is open to the public in nine days. Hooray.

I doubt he signs the tag next time around if it goes that way....

 

[Kontradiction]

Edelman can easily replace him? Just like Hoyer can easily replace Brady.

Either you missed my sarcasm or I missed your's.

 

[Kontradiction]

WW was 28 or 29 when he suffered the knee injury and yes, he most certainly had a career year. My argument is 32 or later WRs historically start to break down.

And that argument has been successfully refuted.

I'd argue that Gronk had just as big of a share of the offensive load and production.

And I would argue that Gronk was more able to do what he did based on the double coverage that Welker routinely dictated (moreso than any other WR on this team, in fact).

They've been pretty damn good at it for 13 years, Kontra.

Who have they not paid based on the fear that an injury could occur within the contract period? Such a lack of critical thinking and awareness of th game they are presiding over would not seem to describe a guy like Belichick or an organization like the Patriots.

 

[Don_the_patfan]

You took what I said and responded with something that's not even tangential. In answer to your unrelated question:

Yes, yes get your critique in, it makes you feel better am all about community service so glad I could help. You need your ego stroked it's evident on every post you make, you try to find a word, a punctuation that you may turn around and criticize and try to put the other individual whom you are arguing against down or on the defensive immediately so the point is lost/muddled. It's a constant itch with you, cant help yourself. Have a friend who is a lawyer same deal cant get away from an argument(the philosophical meaning). So am glad I could help.

1.) I've said before that Welker deserves a Calvin Johnson contract based upon production, but would not get that due to age and his "slot"ness.

2.) Ian and I had a conversation on this some time ago (in a thread), where both he and I seemed to be in agreement that a 3 year deal in the $8m-$9m range would be a bargain for the Patriots. I bring this up not for use as authoritative backing, but to show that I've been of the same mind for some time and that my numbers are not Calvin Johnson numbers.

So the answer is NOT at those numbers and essentially answer is NO and indeed if that is what he is looking for you would be against it, got it. Listen I want Welker here for the future and no one in this forum knows what he wants. Schefter insinuates he is looking for numbers in that neighborhood and quoted by a local reporter, and that's all I have to go with.

Schefter: Welker deal not expected - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

a slot receiver typically doesn't make as much money as a Calvin Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald, and that seems to be where these talks are bogged down slightly."

Bottom line: We all should now realize the Pats will not retain Welker. It's the logical conclusion as the only chance they had to retain him expired yesterday. No way does Welker come down on $, and no way the pats go up a year later a year older. Add to that that to franchise him next year would be crazy numbers and they are not doing that. So lets enjoy him this season and be prepared to move on without him. That's the cold hard truth as much as we don't like it.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

If Welker won SB MVP when we won 19-0, then yes, he probably would've been a Boston sports icon.

I'm sorry, I forget to apologize that I actually root for this team and its players - I know that really bothers you and thwarts your agenda of seeing your contrarian views proven right at the expense of the team's success.

LOL

Like patsfaninpittsburgh is so "anti-Patriots".

Ahhh, Branch ACTUALLY DID become a SB MVP....is he a "legend"?

You think that nonsense up to reinforce what you dearly want to believe.

patsfaninpittsburgh is proven correct because patsfaninpittsburgh actually bothers to take the time to figure out what the team is ACTUALLY DOING. That probably does seem "contrarian" because it eliminates pfip from participation in another round of *********** posting.

Points that make you oblivious from reality.

The coach of the team you claim to follow and root for values creativity. One thing he always tasks subordinate coaches with is to think up something new. This coach is the antithesis of "do what we do".

As such, a REAL fan would anticipate that the operational and intellectual philosophy of the various units would consistently evolve.

As such, using the past five year as the basis going forward isn't all that bright. You'd be better served trying to anticipate the offense 2012 going forward.

Ofcourse, maybe all these new OC, WR's, RB's, and TE's coming into their own serve the singular purpose of reinforcing WW's role in the offense?

The last time this level of disdain was hoisted on mgmt was in 2010. BB and company were imbeciles because the Patriots entered the draft period with zero TE's. patsfans.com was livid because there was no plan.

Somehow, time after time, patsfans.com can't really seem to grasp that in every time these types of situations arise, BB and company have thought the problem through and have a plan.

Reiss is of the opinion that AHern is currently higher on the future pecking order. Are you shocked that mgmt MIGHT place a 21 year old TE higher on the list vs a 31 year old WR? Therefore, you can't quite grasp that mgmt would hesitate to committment?

Were you breathing in 2010? Did you miss the Moss contract saga? A selective exercise in referencing the past?

Obviously, it's quite emotional to think that WW might have a finite future. The guy has been a phenom and is mimimum a top three favorite.

However, whatever one feels, there is zero excuse for thinking that mgmt has not thought this through and have fully planned and prepared for a post Wes future.

 

[Clonamery]

LOL

Like patsfaninpittsburgh is so "anti-Patriots".

Ahhh, Branch ACTUALLY DID become a SB MVP....is he a "legend"?

You think that nonsense up to reinforce what you dearly want to believe.

patsfaninpittsburgh is proven correct because patsfaninpittsburgh actually bothers to take the time to figure out what the team is ACTUALLY DOING. That probably does seem "contrarian" because it eliminates pfip from participation in another round of *********** posting.

Points that make you oblivious from reality.

The coach of the team you claim to follow and root for values creativity. One thing he always tasks subordinate coaches with is to think up something new. This coach is the antithesis of "do what we do".

As such, a REAL fan would anticipate that the operational and intellectual philosophy of the various units would consistently evolve.

As such, using the past five year as the basis going forward isn't all that bright. You'd be better served trying to anticipate the offense 2012 going forward.

Ofcourse, maybe all these new OC, WR's, RB's, and TE's coming into their own serve the singular purpose of reinforcing WW's role in the offense?

The last time this level of disdain was hoisted on mgmt was in 2010. BB and company were imbeciles because the Patriots entered the draft period with zero TE's. patsfans.com was livid because there was no plan.

Somehow, time after time, patsfans.com can't really seem to grasp that in every time these types of situations arise, BB and company have thought the problem through and have a plan.

Reiss is of the opinion that AHern is currently higher on the future pecking order. Are you shocked that mgmt MIGHT place a 21 year old TE higher on the list vs a 31 year old WR? Therefore, you can't quite grasp that mgmt would hesitate to committment?

Were you breathing in 2010? Did you miss the Moss contract saga? A selective exercise in referencing the past?

Obviously, it's quite emotional to think that WW might have a finite future. The guy has been a phenom and is mimimum a top three favorite.

However, whatever one feels, there is zero excuse for thinking that mgmt has not thought this through and have fully planned and prepared for a post Wes future.

Awesome post. Welcome to the Board!

You have a bright future here.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And that argument has been successfully refuted. .

I dont see it Kontra. Suffering a career-threatening injury at 29 and making a complete recovery has nothing to do with being a 32 year old WR with the liklihood of his skills and physical abilities gradually dimishing.

And I would argue that Gronk was more able to do what he did based on the double coverage that Welker routinely dictated (moreso than any other WR on this team, in fact). .

i'm not arguing who was more double-covered and who benefited more by the other ones presence. WW ad Gronk are great players who i think would be sucessful no matter what. It seems that you are implying that Gronk would not have been as productive w/o WW and that is a slipprery argument to have.

Who have they not paid based on the fear that an injury could occur within the contract period? Such a lack of critical thinking and awareness of th game they are presiding over would not seem to describe a guy like Belichick or an organization like the Patriots.

Everyone gets hurt and that is the risk. The Pats philosophy is not to overpay for older players or commit to long term deals w/ big up-front $$ on players that in their mind, no longer have a upside or will maintaining the same level of production. We saw it with Law, Seymour, Vrable, etc. They paid Gronk, Brady, Mankins, etc because they felt strongly that they would produce at high-level over the meaty portion of the contract.

 

[Ring 6]

Either you missed my sarcasm or I missed your's.

Yeah, I missed yours......

 

[Steve102]

I think most people think negotiation means genuine back and forth discussion and exchange of proposals and counter proposals and some level of compromise on both sides. I wish people would stop injecting the red herring crap about giving the player whatever he wants.

According to guys like Bedard, they haven't negotiated since the tag was placed. That was the day Wes discovered their previous offer had been lowered. There was lots of speculation that they must be talking to some extent. But Bedard found out that the only time they did was in passing when Dunn was dealing with rookies and other business at Gillette. And the message remained offer unchanged. They talked this week about what a 3rd year might look like, but the talk never led to an offer. They talked today, but apparently not for long. Wes did say they were trying and hoping, but apparently that was mostly one sided, naive and wishful thinking on his part. The gulf basically remained the same from the time he was tagged until 4PM today, roughly $6M in guaranteed money. The only way to accommodate that was to talk about a third year, which is less than I would have anticipated Welker even settling for, and the team obviously never budged on offering that. Short of it there was no way to make the numbers work more favorably against the cap. $21 guaranteed divided by 2 is the same as two tags. $21 guaranteed divided by 3 is millions cheaper against the cap. But for reasons that defy logic, they simply wanted nothing to do with him past 2013 and they weren't even willing to guarantee him more than $6-7M per over 2 years in the interim except on a one year $9.5M deal.

I think it's so hard for some folks to correlate their situation to Welker's. After all, few among us will make $9.5M over the span of a 45-50 year career. Welker has 10-12 years at best in his career. In the last 5 years he's caught more balls than any WR in the league. Say you were the most successful but increasingly underpaid salesman in your industry for the last decade and your boss approached you at 55 and said Ray, I just have a gut feeling you're going to tank in the next year or two, so here's the deal. How about I finally pay you what you're worth - but just for this year because I believe there is a chance you won't be worth a hill of beans shortly thereafter. Although if you still want to work here for another 4-5 years you can and I'll cover your mileage and provide a free lunch for as long as you do. Then I'm retiring you.

You're first inclination would probably be to tell him to shove his offer where the sun don't shine because you know even at 55 with your resume you can get a job somewhere else paying a lot more than this jerk is offering. Only it turns out your union signed a piece of paper that says he can retain you on his terms for another 8 years whether you like it or not. And your option is to do a bang up job so that someone may still interested in hiring you at all at 63. Or just go home.

That's the deal they offered Welker. Kraft said he wanted him to retire a Patriot, apparently in two years after making less than market value. They toyed with the idea of letting him stay on for a third year, but only if they didn't have to pay him to.

I guess if Welker is out of the league at 33 they're not just geniuses, they're clairvoyant. Although if he's still putting up 90-100+ reception seasons somewhere, they are going to look like their genius is slipping. Especially if their offensive production declines. Remember, all the established WR's on the roster are over 30 already too. And their track record for developing drafted WR talent is sketchy to put it mildly.

This is the same crap they pulled with Vinatieri. Tagged him once and then offered him a one year fully guaranteed deal they said they would continue to as long as he earned it. I don't think Adam has lived to regret his decision. In fact he's been to as many superbowls since as they have, only he has a 4th ring they don't. And banked about $20M more already than he'd have ever seen here. Even after spending a year on IR in 2009, they were loyal to him. Still with the Colts and making $2.7M this year and signed through 2014. Played here for 10 years and was the epitome of the clutch money kicker. He misses either of those kicks in the Snowbowl and Brady and Belichick might not still be here.

Thanks for the real world analogy. I was going to hammer one out, but you beat me to the punch.

I was catching up on this thread, and thinking "why is no one looking at Adam's situation and comparing WW's to AV's?"

It seems clear to me that Route 1, right or wrong, places a fixed X dollar amount on Welker's postion, much like they did Vinatieri's. They aren't going to budge, no matter what any of us, media, or players whine about the "Patriots don't pay". IMO They simply say "this position has a budgeted number of X." and that's that.

The real world analogy: Joe works for ABC company, making widgets. Joe's the best widget maker known, and he gets $15 per hour to make widgets. Joe's been with the company forever, and he wants a raise. Joe knows that Pete, over in another dept., makes gadgets. Pete's ok at what he does, but he's no Joe. Gadget makers make more money, because gadgets sell for more. Joe finds out that Pete makes $25 per hour, and knows of guys making gadgets who make more than Pete. Joe says to management, "hey, I am the best at what I do, and I want to make $25 like Pete." Management, knowing they got Pete on the cheap, tell Joe no thanks. They also know Joe's replacement, while not as good or as productive, will cost them substantially less than Joe. They say "Joe, we love you, but widget makers top out at $15.50. Here's $15.50. If you make XX widgets, you can make $16. That's it." Management knows that even if production drops of in the widget dept. without Joe, they are going to spend maybe $8 on Joe's replacement.

 

[satz]

My only opinion on this WW choice of doing every thing the patriot way is a total bad move. from now the patriot way is not for contracts and should entail a hold out to get paid step added to it.

i think too much emphasis is put of brady for ww success.even he goes to a team with say dauta culpper and joey harrington and producess 70 catches as he in miami or 110 catches with matt cassel . i am sure most team would consider that a good signing for 8 million a year.

 

[Ring 6]

You are the one implying he can't be stopped. There are several games where WW was contained.

Wes Welker Career Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Are you arguing he is supposed to be the only WR ever who has only great games?
He really hasn't been stopped. Contained is a poor mans word for I was wrong saying he has been stopped.

I acknowledge your counter argument as well. On a per instance basis you are right. I'm going by 7 playoff games where he averages the same number of catches as he does during the regular season, but less YPC and less 1st downs a game...In my mind, the did occur based on the numbers.

But he isn't converting fewer first downs.

I'm stubborn too.

I see the trend and it tells me something irrefutable. Not sure what else I can say....

I have no idea what trend you mean. If you are saying players put up lesser statistics vs good defenses, and WRs have lesser #s in the playoffs because the opponents are better, passing offenses are less productive, games are closer, and you don't have huge days against weak opponents to drive up those average stats, then yes you have identified a real trend.
Sadly you are claiming it is Welker-centric, which is just not the case.

 

[RobertWeathers]

My only opinion on this WW choice of doing every thing the patriot way is a total bad move. from now the patriot way is not for contracts and should entail a hold out to get paid step added to it.

i think too much emphasis is put of brady for ww success.even he goes to a team with say dauta culpper and joey harrington and producess 70 catches as he in miami or 110 catches with matt cassel . i am sure most team would consider that a good signing for 8 million a year.

Mo summed it up perfectly. The Pats are ok paying WW 2y @ $16m (They were until they reduced the offer). They are also ok paying him 1yr @ $9.4m.

They are not ok paying him 2 yr @ $22m.

WW at $8m/per is a steal.

 

[Kontradiction]

I dont see it Kontra. Suffering a career-threatening injury at 29 and making a complete recovery has nothing to do with being a 32 year old WR with the liklihood of his skills and physical abilities gradually dimishing.

And again, you can't apply a science to a receiver's skills dismissing as each player is different. We can just go on what we know, and that's that Welker is healthy and just had a career season. Not sure what the hang up here is. Again, you're arguing on hypotheticals while I'm arguing on fact.

i'm not arguing who was more double-covered and who benefited more by the other ones presence. WW ad Gronk are great players who i think would be sucessful no matter what. It seems that you are implying that Gronk would not have been as productive w/o WW and that is a slipprery argument to have.

First, a slippery slope is a logical fallacy. Second, I would think that my point would be apparent. Welker was the only receiver on our offense that demanded double teams. As somebody that could do that patrolling the same area that Gronk and Hernandez did, it would seem apparent that he made Gronk's job easier.

Everyone gets hurt and that is the risk.

Understood. That's the game of football. Injuries could occur at any time. As Pats fans, we understand this better than most. But the Pats don't bail out on contract proceedings based on that risk. If they did that, there wouldn't be any sense in them having a franchise.

The Pats philosophy is not to overpay for older players or commit to long term deals w/ big up-front $$ on players that in their mind, no longer have a upside or will maintaining the same level of production. We saw it with Law, Seymour, Vrable, etc. They paid Gronk, Brady, Mankins, etc because they felt strongly that they would produce at high-level over the meaty portion of the contract.

1. You attempted to blast me earlier for bringing Brady into this. Now that your argument is falling flat on its face, you're bringing him in. Interesting turn of events that could go one of two ways. Either you can admit that the players mentioned are irrelevant to the argument at hand or you can admit that you just shot a hole in your primary argument.

2. Moss's payday in 2008 would indicate a failure in your initial sentence to support this point.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Are you arguing he is supposed to be the only WR ever who has only great games?
He really hasn't been stopped. Contained is a poor mans word for I was wrong saying he has been stopped. .

I dont mean to get semantic. My definition of stopped is WW being double covered all game and being held to 1 catches for 12 yards, no 1st downs and zero TDs. Contained is 3 catches 29yds 1 first down and zero TDs.

I've never implied WW was ever "stopped".

But he isn't converting fewer first downs. .

I dont know what else to say, Andy. WW averages less 1st downs in the playoffs. They are certainly not all on him but I do believe a good margin as he is facing better players and better talent and better defensive schemes.

I have no idea what trend you mean. If you are saying players put up lesser statistics vs good defenses, and WRs have lesser #s in the playoffs because the opponents are better, passing offenses are less productive, games are closer, and you don't have huge days against weak opponents to drive up those average stats, then yes you have identified a real trend.
Sadly you are claiming it is Welker-centric, which is just not the case.

I'm saying that WW's across the board go down in the playoffs.

 

[Ivan]

There isn't. However, under the terms of the CBA you are required to negotiate in good faith with any player you tender in an effort to get a deal done. Clearly it doesn't sound like anything remotely like that happened here if team sources are telling Curran they decided last fall that they would go year to year with Welker. And we know from multiple media reports that there has been little to no discussion between the sides or movement beyond downward by the team (on guaranteed money per Welker) since the tag was placed in March.

Remember, the tag was intended to be a place holder, intended to give teams time to get a deal done with a franchise caliber player. It was never intended to be a means to simply restrict a player from departing a team unwilling to sign him to a long term deal. Although increasingly teams have appeared to use it to that end.

It's also technically against the rules to tag a player specifically to trade him. However in all these cases unless a player files a grievance they've let it go. Usually when it comes to that point the player just wants out and while the tag may limit his compensation to some extent because of the compensation the trade necessitates, he's getting his long term deal from a team who wants him.

Great post, I wasn't aware they had it in writing. Welker should absolutely file a grievance to have the tag removed and become an unrestricted free agent. The Patriots will get clocked if this goes to arbitration, and in this instance they truly deserve it.

 

[Kontradiction]

Great post, I wasn't aware they had it in writing. Welker should absolutely file a grievance to have the tag removed and become an unrestricted free agent. The Patriots will get clocked if this goes to arbitration, and in this instance they truly deserve it.

Welker is too classy of a guy to do this.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I doubt he signs the tag next time around if it goes that way....

It's also amazing that folks don't get that the only way his market will go down is if he fails to produce in 2012 which means the team will have overpaid for him in 2012 and are more likely than ever not going to be willing to tag him again. That is the conundrum the team now faces of it's own making. Have to hope he both produces well and doesn't produce that well... Because if he does his projected two year value going forward will only increase, not only over what they offered this time around but over what he was asking for or willing to settle for this time around. But then again some people refuse to accept the rationale that the cap won't go up until after 2015 because the money that kicks in in 2014 won't hit the cap before 2015 and some of it (several million at least) will never hit future caps because it was already borrowed to prop up earlier caps that were less than $123M and it has to be paid back...

Yesterday the national media continued to speculate there was a 50% chance a deal got done. They did that not based on anything they were hearing - aside from each other, but based on the fact that despite the teams apparent reluctance to do a deal with close to $20M guaranteed it just made too much sense not to. So much for sense.

I'd put the odds this AM he's done here after 2012 at about 90% if he has another season approaching 2011 production levels and increasing or decreasing by about 1% for every catch over 110 he does or doesn't make in 2012. Welker is on the cusp of being a HOF candidate based on the criteria that you dominate at the position for an extended period. A lot of folks here can't wrap their heads around that. He's caught more passes and not just than any slot WR but than any WR since 2007 in a league that boasts mega talents at the position. In an 8 year career to date he's a 4 time consecutive pro bowler and you could make a case he got snubbed in 2007 and a 2 time first team all pro. On a team with a HOF QB that struggles to locate receiving talent that fits it's system.

I like Ross Tucker's rebuttal to those who persist in trying to quantify that as a product of the system.

Ross Tucker‏@RossTuckerNFL

Tired of hearing Welker is "system" guy. EVERY team has slot receiver. Same routes. He's unstoppable. Rare/unique player.

 

[Ivan]

Welker is too classy of a guy to do this.

That would be my guess as well but it doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do. I was completely unaware that the CBA required teams to bargain in good faith and provided the reports to date on their offers are accurate then the Patriots are clearly in gross violation of that requirement. If they actually made him a reasonable offer that he rejected then it would be a different matter, but to date we haven't heard that.

 

[brdmaverick]

I may be overly pessimistic here, but I do feel that a non-deal does in fact mean that it's Welker's final year as a Patriot.

I mean, let's think about it....a long term extension would have been more beneficial to our salary cap this year.

Are the Patriots waiting because they expect his market value to drop next offseason? Why would that make sense, why would you 'hope', 'root', or 'expect' his value to drop? In order for that to happen, he would have to have a subpar season. In which case, why would you pay 9 mil this year with the expectation of a down year?

I love Welker and hope they can come to some sort of agreement past this season, but we all know from past experience (Milloy, Vrabel, Seymour) that it's a business.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker is too classy of a guy to do this.

Yup, and too good and loyal a teammate.