Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[resdubwhite]

From NFLN

"They love his versatility and they love his toughness"

 

[Tunescribe]

Here's the thing about the draft:

If there's a player you want, you have to take him before someone else does.

Sometimes people call that a reach.

For me, its very intriguing when Belichick likes a guy enough to "reach."

Certainly, but then there's the nagging question: why reach when you don't have to?

 

[Snake Eyes]

So I don't get all worked up about whether this guy or that guy was a reach. I view the draft as an opportunity to see where he thinks the roster is in term of the team building process.

He normally trades down to accululate more picks, by this method he has rebuilt the core of the team the past few years. This year he traded up twice in the first round. I am infering that he thinks the roster s in good shat & that he really thinks these 2 players will be significent contributors.

BTW given the state of the roster while waiting for today's pick(s), I think we will field a conpetive team when they walk on the field for the season opener against the Titans and have a good chance of winning the division again.

A couple of things:

- I am concerned with whether a player is a reach for the simple reason that I don't want to pay Mercedes money for a Toyota when I can pay Toyota money for a Toyota. I believe how well a team manages their personnel to be critically important to their chances of Superbowl success, and wasted draft capital means that capital cannot be applied elsewhere.

- I also believe that we will field a competitive team that will win the division, but I'm more concerned with whether or not we could have been in a better position to win the Superbowl!

 

[40yrpatsfan]

When analyzing the seemingly strange second round for the Patriots--taking a player ranked as a Day Three guy at 48 and trading down for poor value--one needs to pay attention in future years not just to the play of Tavon Wilson, assuming he plays, which I think he will, but the play of the talented guys available at 48 that we passed on.

Like UConn's Reyes, the defensive lineman, taken at 49. Or another DB like Oklahoma's Jamell Fleming, another perfect fit for the Patriots.

I'm convinced taking another Wilson DB from Illinois wasn't merely a reach, it was a panic move. We totally screwed over the Ravens again in the first round by taking Hightower whom they obviously coveted, and perhaps Bill was worried that another team was going to do the same to us with Wilson.

I just think it was going to happen that high in the draft.

The probability is very high--of course impossible to prove--that Wilson is there for us at 62--or well beyond.

Wilson was a need pick but taken earlier than he needed to be. And I'm worried that Belichick is starting to internalize his own press about being a genius.

It's possible everyone was wrong about Wilson. It's possible teams had him ranked much higher than we were led to believe. Having in for a visit, as seven teams are reported to have done, shows a possible interest.

But I believe Belichick likes to stir the pot. I think he enjoyed seeing The Hair (Mel Kiper) rendered speechless. I know Ron Zook from my own sources thinks very highly of the player selected.

And yet...it was a reach. Better players were available for us at 48. And Belichick made a mistake, which I think will be proven in the next few years.

Chandler Jones--Dont'a Hightower--Kendall Reyes/Jamell Fleming. That's what we should have done. It hurts that we didn't get a better player at 48. If I'm wrong, it's likely the Patriots were in taking Wilson when he would very likely have around at 62.

But since the Patriots were apparently not going to keep 62, as events turned out, they were forced to go for the reach and take a player at an obvious HUGE need, safety.

Grade C. Same as Pete Prisco.

Disagree with your post and many many others like it on this board. You and the pundits have NO WAY of knowing when Wilson would have been taken. Not a clue in the world, just the bible according to Kiper or USAToday or whatever draftnik rag you may like.

Let's assume you're not questioning whether the Pats should or should not like the player, and are just complaining about the value of taking him at 62. Their brain trust felt there was risk that he may not last until 62. Did you have a better feel for that than they did? There's only 13 spots between 48 and 62, and it's clear they suspected someone in there could take him or someone else move up above 62.

Or do you think maybe BB just enjoys squandering resources. Or that he just doesn't give a sh*t about maximizing his returns from the draft? It's got to be one of those 3, so which is it?

Wilson was their target. They executed the choice. Belichick is the unquestioned master of navigating a draft board up or down. Wth are you complaining about?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FAIL!!

I...am a Mad Bill Devotee.

And I DO lambaste that Pick. :snob:

I'm sorry for not quoting your original post, but your exact words were "fawning, unquestioning devotee."

If you're lambasting the pick, then you're not an "unquestioning" devotee.

 

[Deus Irae]

It seems as if we go through this every year.

1.) Kiper's excellent at what he does.

2.) The pick was a huge reach.

3.) Time will tell if the reach works out.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You have to admit BB has been pretty good about cutting his losses with players when it's clear it's not going to work out. Taylor Price would probably still be on a lot of rosters after investing a 3rd only two drafts ago.

Price would probably still be here if they hadn't had all the injuries in the secondary and along the OL.

 

[patsfan13]

A couple of things:

- I am concerned with whether a player is a reach for the simple reason that I don't want to pay Mercedes money for a Toyota when I can pay Toyota money for a Toyota. I believe how well a team manages their personnel to be critically important to their chances of Superbowl success, and wasted draft capital means that capital cannot be applied elsewhere.
!

Mankins, Villmer and Solder were all reaches, should we have waited and taken a chance on toehr teams drafting them?

The bottom line is the roster we field on opening day.

Barring injuries I think this will be the strongest roster in the NFL.

Thanks is all I care about.

I can't wait to see Kiper whining when we stomp the Ravens this year.

 

[RayClay]

A couple of things:

- I am concerned with whether a player is a reach for the simple reason that I don't want to pay Mercedes money for a Toyota when I can pay Toyota money for a Toyota. I believe how well a team manages their personnel to be critically important to their chances of Superbowl success, and wasted draft capital means that capital cannot be applied elsewhere.

- I also believe that we will field a competitive team that will win the division, but I'm more concerned with whether or not we could have been in a better position to win the Superbowl!

the difference being, you can't build another one on the assembly line. You may think that from a draft guide, but they wanted this player, thought another team in position did too, so they made the move.

They are obviously in the mode of targetting players to fit (two move ups in round 1). They've drafted multitudes in recent years and had some hits, but they just aren't bothereing with a massive draft class they will cut half of this year.

They need a safety, they want this one. Versatile, team captain, good character, attitude, apparently.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It seems as if we go through this every year.

1.) Kiper's excellent at what he does.

2.) The pick was a huge reach.

3.) Time will tell if the reach works out.

If by "reach" you mean that they drafted him earlier than they could have, you have no way of knowing that. They felt he was going to be taken between 48 and 62 and made their decision to take him at 48. They may have tried to move down 3 or 4 spots, we'll never know that. But they were not comfortable waiting until 62.

 

[The Boomer]

Seriously?


Another argument here is that Belichick knows more than us, and more than the analysts. Absolutely. That's correct. But, anyone see the couple hundred hours of NFL draft programming? See the magazines? The websites? This is not the NFL draft over the phone from 1967. This is now a big industry. Analysts are paid to track a thousand or more prospects. They watch tape. They go to the Combine. They speak to coaches. They consult with guys like Polian and Casserly who have built teams.

Other than coaches who trust each other speaking between themselves privately (and it is pretty obvious which college coaches are on Bellichick's list), outsider speaking to coaches is of almost no value. Every college coach will praise almost any of his players to others. Professional coaches, before every draft, are masters of misinformation. Polian and Casserly are working as talking heads between jobs for a reason.

Only what a college coach honestly tells a professional coach privately and not for public consumption matters.

The leadership an pedigrees that Belichick covets are apparently the only real clues to who he might like apart from combine measurables. I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere but on one of his bios it was mentioned that Tavon Wilson was given a sportsmanship award by his Big Ten peers. That says something about his character in overcoming daunting personal hardships.

 

[Deus Irae]

If by "reach" you mean that they drafted him earlier than they could have, you have no way of knowing that. They felt he was going to be taken between 48 and 62 and made their decision to take him at 48. They may have tried to move down 3 or 4 spots, we'll never know that. But they were not comfortable waiting until 62.

We don't know what they were "comfortable" with, and that's completely irrelevant to whether or not the pick was a reach. We know that they drafted a kid in round 2 when he was projected at the bottom of the draft or a UDFA. That's a reach, and playing the "but you don't know..." card doesn't change that.

It is what it is.

 

[Snake Eyes]

the difference being, you can't build another one on the assembly line. You may think that from a draft guide, but they wanted this player, thought another team in position did too, so they made the move.

They are obviously in the mode of targetting players to fit (two move ups in round 1). They've drafted multitudes in recent years and had some hits, but they just aren't bothereing with a massive draft class they will cut half of this year.

They need a safety, they want this one. Versatile, team captain, good character, attitude, apparently.

Aside from the fact that he can't change direction, has poor instincts, can't cover or tackle, he sounds like a great player.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Mankins, Villmer and Solder were all reaches, should we have waited and taken a chance on toehr teams drafting them?

The bottom line is the roster we field on opening day.

Barring injuries I think this will be the strongest roster in the NFL.

Thanks is all I care about.

I can't wait to see Kiper whining when we stomp the Ravens this year.

Mankins, Vollmer, and Solder could all play, and they did immediately. Wilson sucks, I'd be interested to see how many snaps he gets this season.

 

[hambone1818]

A couple of things:

- I am concerned with whether a player is a reach for the simple reason that I don't want to pay Mercedes money for a Toyota when I can pay Toyota money for a Toyota.

As I've pointed out before, and other posters as well: we have NO idea of knowing where other teams had Wilson on their board. I'd love to get a peak at the draft boards of the 7 teams that saw Wilson but we'll likely never know if another team valued him as a 2nd round talent. And at the time of the pick Belichick didn't have that information either, he just knew the kid fit what htey were after and made the pick.

I feel like I had read, a few years after the Mankins pick, that another team (or teams) had him rated pretty high. Had the Patriots not drafted him and another did we'd likely never know that the Pats liked him that much, we'd only know we didn't have Mankins on this team. And the same goes for Wilson: if he pans out we likely won't know if other teams had him rated high but what does it matter when we get a player who works out?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

We don't know what they were "comfortable" with, and that's completely irrelevant to whether or not the pick was a reach. We know that they drafted a kid in round 2 when he was projected at the bottom of the draft or a UDFA. That's a reach, and playing the "but you don't know..." card doesn't change that.

It is what it is.

It is what is is, all right: Wilson was a 2nd round prospect and draftee, not whatever the pundits thought.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

We don't know what they were "comfortable" with, and that's completely irrelevant to whether or not the pick was a reach. We know that they drafted a kid in round 2 when he was projected at the bottom of the draft or a UDFA. That's a reach, and playing the "but you don't know..." card doesn't change that.

It is what it is.

and ps: we obviously do know what they weren't comfortable with, or else they wouldn't have made the move at 48. Either that or they loved him so much that they didn't even hesitate about pulling the trigger at 48. One or the other.

 

[patsfan13]

Mankins, Vollmer, and Solder could all play, and they did immediately. Wilson sucks, I'd be interested to see how many snaps he gets this season.

Vollemer wasn't even invited to the combine, who cold he POSSIBLE be worth a 2nd round pick.......

For the time being I will trust poor old BB POV on whether Wilson can play or not over your vast football knowledge, for me ignorance of all these draftees is bliss. I don't have to bear the burden of your total knowledge of all thing football.

 

[hambone1818]

We don't know what they were "comfortable" with, and that's completely irrelevant to whether or not the pick was a reach. We know that they drafted a kid in round 2 when he was projected at the bottom of the draft or a UDFA. That's a reach, and playing the "but you don't know..." card doesn't change that.

It is what it is.

Projected by who? The Kipers and McShay's of the world? Sorry but if your team is going off their analysis then you're probably not having very successful drafts.

IF another team drafts Wilson later in the second their fans would all be talking about what a reach it is...but that would be forgotten if he turns into a stud, the only absolutely, 100% fact is that their team drafted Wilson and he panned out. We don't know where other teams valued Wilson, only where a bunch of media 'pundits' had him...so I guess the questions is: why would anyone trust Kiper and McShay more than Belichick?

 

[Sfpat]

From NFLN

"They love his versatility and they love his toughness"

Ventrone is versatile and tough.