Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[shmessy]

Who is in the best position to decide on those probabilities.


The football head coach with the scouting team or the fan on the messageboard?

Does that also answer the question of "genius" of the trade down from #62 to get #90 and #163 when the Bills later traded down #67 for #87 and #120?

Is anyone going to explain away THAT? Resdub - I'd like to hear your defense of the math there.

C'mon folks, stop twisting yourselves into pretzels to defend this. That second round was a massive screwup.

Great first round, but someone put a mickey in their drinks last night.

 

[ivanvamp]

Is that what our scouting staff said about him?

You and a handful of others should just switch beverages altogether. Go find a better overall organization to root for. One that nails all it's picks and wins superbowls every year...or at least competes for them more often than this outfit does. Good luck on your search.

Mo, just curious....are we supposed to react to every decision BB makes with, "Well, it's BB so it must be a good one!"? Or are we free to go, what the hell? when he makes a decision that we don't understand?

I think it's pretty well understood by most Patriots fans (and most people who follow the NFL) that BB gets a higher percentage of his decisions (both in terms of personnel and X's and O's) correct than most people in the game - that's why he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. But nobody gets every decision right and we can all point to a TON of decisions BB has gotten wrong. Again, he's better at this than pretty much everyone else, but he's not flawless. As we react to his draft choices, it would make for a pretty dull board to simply list each pick and say, "BB made it so it must be good."

I don't think it's unreasonable at all for us to wonder aloud at a decision like the Wilson pick. We ALL hope it turns out great and that he becomes an all-pro safety. But that doesn't mean we all understand the move.

 

[Off The Grid]

Hmmm...

May I point out a few things?

1 ~ Just because Mad Bill is the greatest ~ and he is ~ doesn't mean he doesn't make big mistakes!!

2 ~ Just because somebody commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing him doesn't mean that they don't think he's the greatest...which he is, in case I didn't mention it.

3 ~ Just because somebody commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing him also doesn't mean that they think they know more, or could do a better job than The Great One.

4 ~ Mind you: We all know that there are plenty of Chicken Littles and Bill Bashers around here. They are easily identifiable, and they deserve all the scorn they receive...But to sweepingly condemn everyone who commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing Mad Bill as a Chicken Little...is pathetic Cool Aid Guzzling.

 

[patsfan13]

So BB makes mistakes just like every other guy in the league. What exactly should he do beside what he believes in?

He didn't get where he is now (lock HOF coach) by worrying about everybody else thinks.

He does what he believes in based on a lot of hard work he puts in. What else would we have him do?

If he is worng too often he loses his job.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Is that what our scouting staff said about him?

You and a handful of others should just switch beverages altogether. Go find a better overall organization to root for. One that nails all it's picks and wins superbowls every year...or at least competes for them more often than this outfit does. Good luck on your search.

Ok, so if I don't stroke every move by BB I don't deserve to root for my team?

I call them as I see them, BB has made great moves but he's also made stupid ones, stating that truth doesn't make one less of a fan, just a more honest one.

 

[hambone1818]

Does that also answer the question of "genius" of the trade down from #62 to get #90 and #163 when the Bills later traded down #67 for #87 and #120?

Is anyone going to explain away THAT? Resdub - I'd like to hear your defense of the math there.

C'mon folks, stop twisting yourselves into pretzels to defend this. That second round was a massive screwup.

Great first round, but someone put a mickey in their drinks last night.

One bad trade doesn't make the Wilson pick a bad decision. For all we know someone had Wilson lined up for later in the round...maybe it's not likely, but it's possible. As I've said before Belichick has a great track record with these massive 'reach' picks, if he didn't I'd be right there with you saying this was a bust of a round.

The trade of pick 62 is indefensible IMO, just terrible value and I don't think anyone has said otherwise. But going off draft 'pundits' like Kiper to determine the value of the Wilson pick is just foolish to me.

 

[Nunchucks]

If I knew that he would be available in the 6th, then yes, I still would have waited until the 6th. If I knew that other teams would somehow *know* what Brady would become, then I would have tried to draft him sooner, but then again, it wouldn't have mattered, because if people knew what he'd become, he would have been the #1 pick in the draft that year and New England would have had no shot at him at all.

and perhaps you would have drafted Jamarcus Russel with the first over all pick, or any number of busts in round one. I don't care when a guy is taken or whether he could have been had in the later rounds. I just care about how they perform.

 

[Snake Eyes]

What do you say to all the draft analyses that have come out saying the Patriots have been far and away the most successful team over the last decade in the draft? Even excluding the Brady pick there have been any number of home runs, along with dozens of solid depth picks.

'Failing plenty' is something every single team does in the draft. Not every 2nd rounder pans out...hell, not every 1st rounder pans out. But like it or not Belichick has done better in the draft anyone else over the past decade, which is why I always give him the benefit of the doubt on questionable picks--even if they don't pan out.

I'm criticizing a pick, a pick. We all know not every pick works out but that doesn't mean every pick was a smart decision, there's a difference between the two.

The funny thing is that I can actually admit when I'm wrong, and I've been wrong before, but the BB Kool-Aid drinkers can't ever admit that a pick was garbage, even long after it's failed, I just hear people talk about when he's been right.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

EDIT: BradyManny stole my thunder, beat me to the punch on the trade of pick 62. Big-time headscratcher, and it's the only thing that we can definitively point to as a bad decision.

It's not definitively a bad decision unless you lost something other than meaningless points on an outdated draft chart. Bill has stated that it was what it was, that was the only offer and they still took it for a reason. He clearly had no one to draft at that juncture so unless you wanted him to pick the guy he did at 62 instead of 90 while adding a 5th...he will probably reach on his favorite potential UDFA... We've already got 80 or so players on our roster (as compared to a team like Baltimore who barely have 53) so there aren't going to be a lot of openings and I think he's willing to limit and making his selections with an eye to units/positions where guys may actually make the grade for the 53.

It is better to outsmart yourself like the Rams did in the first?? Bill is apparently damned if he does and damned if he doesn't by some here. That's probably the root of his favorite saying, it is what it is.

 

[Tunescribe]

Fighting Illini Fan Poll: Who is Tavon Wilson?

Most recent name for Artist formerly known as Prince: 12%
Most recent name for Artist formerly known as Ron Artest: 6%
Defensive back for the fighting Illini: 4%

And of course...

"That kid in Florida": 78%

This all started when Wilson, after a night on the town, looked in the mirror and didn't recognize himself.

 

[hambone1818]

Mo, just curious....are we supposed to react to every decision BB makes with, "Well, it's BB so it must be a good one!"? Or are we free to go, what the hell? when he makes a decision that we don't understand?

I think it's pretty well understood by most Patriots fans (and most people who follow the NFL) that BB gets a higher percentage of his decisions (both in terms of personnel and X's and O's) correct than most people in the game - that's why he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. But nobody gets every decision right and we can all point to a TON of decisions BB has gotten wrong. Again, he's better at this than pretty much everyone else, but he's not flawless. As we react to his draft choices, it would make for a pretty dull board to simply list each pick and say, "BB made it so it must be good."

I don't think it's unreasonable at all for us to wonder aloud at a decision like the Wilson pick. We ALL hope it turns out great and that he becomes an all-pro safety. But that doesn't mean we all understand the move.

See but here's the thing: the decisions he's gotten wrong were guys like Chad Jackson and Darius Butler...and those picks were praised on high as fantastic moves. Meanwhile Belichick was roundly criticized for the picks of Mankins and Vollmer and McCourty.

Face it: we don't know what Wilson will become...sure, you can speculate and ***** and moan about a 'reach' pick, but until we see what kind of pro he develops into it's impossible to say. And that's where the 'kool-aid' drinkers and the people who criticize Belichick differ: I give him the benefit of the doubt because of his track record--especially on these kinds of picks--while other people choose the 'instant analysis' and look at Kipers board and say it was a terrible pick.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm criticizing a pick, a pick. We all know not every pick works out but that doesn't mean every pick was a smart decision, there's a difference between the two.

The funny thing is that I can actually admit when I'm wrong, and I've been wrong before, but the BB Kool-Aid drinkers can't ever admit that a pick was garbage, even long after it's failed, I just hear people talk about when he's been right.

That's because he's right more often than not, or more often that most of his peers (if he truly even has any at present). It's kind of mindless to keep harping on the fact that he isn't always right once you embrace the simple fact that no one is... That's what the koolaid is, not a salute to perfection but a homage to being as close to it all things considered as rational fans could ever dream of their HC/GM/organization being.

So again, think you can do better? Like Nike says, go for it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I love reading the words "Mel Kiper; Draft Guru".

He's absolutely nothing of the sort.

Closer to Draft G-nu?

 

[Off The Grid]

Hmmm...

May I point out a few things?

1 ~ Just because Mad Bill is the greatest ~ and he is ~ doesn't mean he doesn't make big mistakes!!

2 ~ Just because somebody commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing him doesn't mean that they don't think he's the greatest...which he is, in case I didn't mention it.

3 ~ Just because somebody commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing him also doesn't mean that they think they know more, or could do a better job than The Great One.

4 ~ Mind you: We all know that there are plenty of Chicken Littles and Bill Bashers around here. They are easily identifiable, and they deserve all the scorn they receive...But to sweepingly condemn everyone who commits the unpardonable sin of criticizing Mad Bill as a Chicken Little...is pathetic Cool Aid Guzzling.

So BB makes mistakes just like every other guy in the league. What exactly should he do beside what he believes in?

He didn't get where he is now (lock HOF coach) by worrying about everybody else thinks.

He does what he believes in based on a lot of hard work he puts in. What else would we have him do?

If he is worng too often he loses his job.

Nobody ~ at least nobody with any sense ~ is suggesting he should do anything BUT what he believes is best. Where are getting THAT from??

All I'm saying is that reasonable people can believe in Bill and admire and even worship Bill ~ I know I do ~ and STILL lambaste a move that we think was a bad one.

And we should be able to do so without others ~ not you ~ trotting out those tired old CoolAid-Stained sweeping and disparaging comments.

All Chicken Littles and Bill Bashers deserve what they get.

But criticizing Mad Bill does not make one either a Chicken Little or a Bill Basher.

You're a clearly intelligent cat. The distinction is obvious to you, at least, isn't it?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There is nothing wrong with questioning a move. Lambasting it is just silly given the circumstances of what Belichick has accomplished vs. his so called peers.

 

[hambone1818]

It's not definitively a bad decision unless you lost something other than meaningless points on an outdated draft chart. Bill has stated that it was what it was, that was the only offer and they still took it for a reason. He clearly had no one to draft at that juncture so unless you wanted him to pick the guy he did at 62 instead of 90 while adding a 5th...he will probably reach on his favorite potential UDFA... We've already got 80 or so players on our roster (as compared to a team like Baltimore who barely have 53) so there aren't going to be a lot of openings and I think he's willing to limit and making his selections with an eye to units/positions where guys may actually make the grade for the 53.

It is better to outsmart yourself like the Rams did in the first?? Bill is apparently damned if he does and damned if he doesn't by some here. That's probably the root of his favorite saying, it is what it is.

Fair enough. The question I have is why couldn't they have gotten Denver on the phone to get 87 and 120? Or the Bills, Chargers or Ravens--all of whom traded up in the next 22 picks. I know it's not nearly that easy, but the fact is other teams were looking to trade up and the Patriots got a comparatively bad deal--hell the Falcons moved pick 84 and got nearly the same deal as the Pats--#91 and #164.

I don't think it's a huge deal; in the end Bill presumably got his 3rd round target and where the 5th round pick is doesn't matter all that much. It's just a head-scratcher to me.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

What people are missing here is not supporting Tavon Wilson. I wish him well.

It's we passed on Kendall Reyes. And no one can refute the claim that we could have had Wilson with our second second. Or even a trade-down from 62.

It's baffling to me. But Belichick loves to be unpredictable. I just hope it's not for the sake of it.

Actually, it's pretty easy to refute the claim that we could have had Wilson with our second 2nd. Unless you know where all 32 teams had him ranked, you can't say that with any certainty.

And even then, I would argue that you couldn't know for sure because draft scenarios change with every single pick. Maybe we do know everyone had him as a 3rd round pick or lower and we should be able to get him with our second 2nd. But then there is a run on safeties and a team panics and drafts him a bit higher than they anticipated.

The reality is that draft scenarios are constantly changing with each pick. If the Seahawks don't draft Irvin, does that set off a chain reaction where DeCastro is not available, which leads Pittsburgh to draft Hightower? Who knows? At that point, are we trading up? Trading down? Teams have strategies, targets, and ideas, but a pick here or there makes it all obsolete really quickly.

I'm not saying Wilson is a great pick, I'm just simply stating that there's really no way you or I or even BB can say with any certainty where this kid would be drafted. He could have gone in the 2nd, 3rd, or undrafted. But BB saw something that he felt made this kid worth the price that they were willing to draft him so high and not risk losing him.

 

[jmt57]

If you told me three days ago that the Patriots would draft Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Jake Bequette would I be happy? Hell yeah, I'd be ecstatic.

If you told me three days ago that the Patriots would use the 48th pick on a completely unfamiliar name that most figured would be available at the earliest in the 5th round and others thought would be an UDFA, ranked 9th (or far lower) at his position - would I be unhappy? Hell yeah, I'd be pissed.


It's not a case of one or the other. The Patriots could have made what could be viewed as a poor value, bad pick, reach, etcetera - and at the very same time could still have what could be seen as a very productive draft.

There is one singular decision, that one single pick; then there is the draft as a whole. Can you have a good draft and also have a not so good pick? Do people consider the two to be mutually exclusive?

 

[Off The Grid]

When someone thinks a move was hideous at the time it was made, NOT lambasting it because you're a fawning, unquestioning devotee of Coach Bill is not only silly, it's ridiculous.

 

[Tunescribe]

See but here's the thing: the decisions he's gotten wrong were guys like Chad Jackson and Darius Butler...and those picks were praised on high as fantastic moves. Meanwhile Belichick was roundly criticized for the picks of Mankins and Vollmer and McCourty.

Face it: we don't know what Wilson will become...sure, you can speculate and ***** and moan about a 'reach' pick, but until we see what kind of pro he develops into it's impossible to say. And that's where the 'kool-aid' drinkers and the people who criticize Belichick differ: I give him the benefit of the doubt because of his track record--especially on these kinds of picks--while other people choose the 'instant analysis' and look at Kipers board and say it was a terrible pick.

OK, OK. Let's just hope Wilson doesn't bust in training camp and BB puts him on the 53 just to spite us.