Brady v. Brees: Two games to pass Marino

[PatriotSeven]

Here's to the thing with the ring.

On your stats: Not only does TFB best all those guys — they all played home games in warm weather stadiums or domes, and many of their opponents were the same. (Marino does get credit for playing in a division with northeast teams; meanwhile ... how the heck is Indy in the South?)

Well it just so happens those with the lowest interception efficiency happen to have most rings to and always seem to have such "great defenses"

Other guys like Elway didn't win a Super Bowl until he played in one where his opponent finally threw as many or more picks as he did. He lost the first 3 because of interceptions. I'd tell you what though, this next generation of QB's is not looking bad at all though and one of the hottest prospects it one of the NFL's "worst prospects".

Rodgers:
127/38 = 3.3
2084/38 = 54 1.8%

Tim Tebow:
16/5 = 3.2 2011: 5.5
302/5 = 60.4 1.7% 2011: 0.9%

These two will be spearheading the next QB race of the new generation and they are off to a hotter start than anyone before them. They need to figure out a way to let him throw the ball more.

Both of these guys, have learned, or somebody's teaching them. No way Tebow's going to maintain his interceptions efficiency he's putting up this year. He's making Rodgers look like a turnover machine, but Rodgers over the past two years has been pretty consistent. We'll see. I just hope Brady figures out a way to get his 4th ring before they get going. A 5th would seal the deal.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Well, its a fun argument to have in order to winnow away the time on a Friday before Christmas, but lets all be real for a few minutes. No matter who ends up with the record (Brady or Brees), its surely not as impressive a feat as the record they are actually breaking.

The league is SOOOO skewed towards passing that it's barely the same game as when Marino played the game. Marino played back in the day when you could mug a WR all the way down the field. Now a days, you just have to remain upright in the pocket because eventually someone will be strolling around free downfield on every dropback.

Don't get me wrong, congrats to Brady and Brees for great seasons, but we're kidding ourselves if we think what they are doing is even remotely as impressive as what Marino did.

p.s. As an aside, I think Marino is a tool too, so no homo on the Marino-love from me.

 

[D-Money]

The rules came into effect when the coltsies started complaining that the patriots DBs where mugging their wrs.I am more impressed with Brady's stats compared to Brees.The guy plays in a dome.He is a top 4 QB though.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd say the core stats the nation ignores is interception efficiency and TD to interception %. The two most important basically.


Brady:
296/114 = 2.6
5240/114 = 46 (2.2%)

Joe Montana:
273/139 = 2.0
5391/139 = 38.8 (2.6%)

Manning:
399/198 = 2.0
7210/198= 36.4 (2.7%)

Brees:
272/143 = 1.1
5405/143=37.8 (2.9%)

Dan Marino:
420/252 = 1.67
8358/252 = 33.2 (3%)


One day the rest of the NFL QB's and general public will catch on and stop putting so much weight on yards. Until then I expect Brady and the Patriots to keep kicking ass. Same goes for Patriots D who is currently #2 in efficiency in the NFL. I also think that 10 years after Tom Brady retires people will look back and realize Brees or Peyton were never really even that close to Tom Brady.

Not to take anything from Brees this year. He's having a great year. But I wouldn't be surprised if he follows in the footsteps of Marino either where he gets the record while Brady gets the ring this year.

Which is what happened in 1984. Marino vs Montana. Marino had the yardage record and lost the SB.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Well, its a fun argument to have in order to winnow away the time on a Friday before Christmas, but lets all be real for a few minutes. No matter who ends up with the record (Brady or Brees), its surely not as impressive a feat as the record they are actually breaking.

The league is SOOOO skewed towards passing that it's barely the same game as when Marino played the game. Marino played back in the day when you could mug a WR all the way down the field. Now a days, you just have to remain upright in the pocket because eventually someone will be strolling around free downfield on every dropback.

Don't get me wrong, congrats to Brady and Brees for great seasons, but we're kidding ourselves if we think what they are doing is even remotely as impressive as what Marino did.

p.s. As an aside, I think Marino is a tool too, so no homo on the Marino-love from me.

It was during Marino's days too though. Keep in mind Otto Graham set the old rookie passing record before Newton broke it in 1950. And Norm Van Brocklin still holds the single game passing record of 554 which he set in 1951.

The Air Coryell offense tore up the 1980's. There were some bad teams back in the old days too and the competition wasn't as close as it is today.

Really the biggest difference is interceptions. Up until about the mid 1980s the total number of interceptions in the league was more than touchdowns every year.

It wasn't so much passing yards that the NFL helped QB's on, but interceptions. And the other biggest difference is yards after catch. I didn't check the Patriots lately but I know Carolina was over 1500 in yards after catch and GB over 1700. Those extra "passing yards" aren't passing yards at all when you think about it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well, its a fun argument to have in order to winnow away the time on a Friday before Christmas, but lets all be real for a few minutes. No matter who ends up with the record (Brady or Brees), its surely not as impressive a feat as the record they are actually breaking.

The league is SOOOO skewed towards passing that it's barely the same game as when Marino played the game. Marino played back in the day when you could mug a WR all the way down the field. Now a days, you just have to remain upright in the pocket because eventually someone will be strolling around free downfield on every dropback.

Don't get me wrong, congrats to Brady and Brees for great seasons, but we're kidding ourselves if we think what they are doing is even remotely as impressive as what Marino did.

p.s. As an aside, I think Marino is a tool too, so no homo on the Marino-love from me.

On NFLN they had a special on the top 10 greatest passing seasons ever and listed Marino's 1984 season as #1. I don't disagree.

They threw the ball 54% of the time too so it wasn't like they ALWAYS threw it.

They also faced 4 top 10 pass defenses (Pitt,LAR, DAL and SEA) and with the exception of Pitt in the regular season game, he shredded them all.

He was also only sacked 13 times all year.

And yes, they didn't have 5 yd chuck, illegal contact penalties and pass interference calls REALLY needed to be blatant.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It wasn't so much passing yards that the NFL helped QB's on, but interceptions. And the other biggest difference is yards after catch. I didn't check the Patriots lately but I know Carolina was over 1500 in yards after catch and GB over 1700. Those extra "passing yards" aren't passing yards at all when you think about it.

True. In 1984 Marino averaged 9 yards per attempt and 14.0 YARDS PER COMPLETION.

This year, Brees is 8.2 YPA and 11.5 YPC. He was 7.8 and 12.3 in 2009 when he almost broke DM's record.

Brady is 8.7 YPA and 13.1 YPC this year which is IMO is a bit more similar to what DM did.

 

[PatriotSeven]

True. In 1984 Marino averaged 9 yards per attempt and 14.0 YARDS PER COMPLETION.

This year, Brees is 8.2 YPA and 11.5 YPC. He was 7.8 and 12.3 in 2009 when he almost broke DM's record.

Brady is 8.7 YPA and 13.1 YPC this year which is IMO is a bit more similar to what DM did.

That's crazy I didn't know that. They really should give us air passing yards.

I know ball placement matters, and hitting receiver in strides, but it would still provide a good comparison. I think QB's should get 10% of those YAC tops in the QB passer rating. You may have placed that ball accurately on your dump off behind the line of scrimmage, for your receiver not to get wrapped up at the point of catch, but the other 60 that comes after that for a touchdown, that's all on that receiver. Or put a max on it.

It's pretty ridiculous. Which is why stats like interception efficiency 5 td-to-interceptions % are so much more telling about a QB.

If you're a QB with a higher interception % there's a good chance you're also not the most accurate passer. You might just have a great receiver or OC saving your ass so you end up with a passable completion %.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

It was during Marino's days too though. Keep in mind Otto Graham set the old rookie passing record before Newton broke it in 1950. And Norm Van Brocklin still holds the single game passing record of 554 which he set in 1951.

The Air Coryell offense tore up the 1980's. There were some bad teams back in the old days too and the competition wasn't as close as it is today.

Really the biggest difference is interceptions. Up until about the mid 1980s the total number of interceptions in the league was more than touchdowns every year.

It wasn't so much passing yards that the NFL helped QB's on, but interceptions. And the other biggest difference is yards after catch. I didn't check the Patriots lately but I know Carolina was over 1500 in yards after catch and GB over 1700. Those extra "passing yards" aren't passing yards at all when you think about it.

True, but YAC and interceptions are all part of the equation, then and now. Coverage now is much looser, so a QB can have a much greater room for error on a throw then in the past. Basically, if you give a QB a few seconds protection, someone is gonna come free and when they do, the DB is usually off them by a few yards, which leads to too (like you mentioned) - better YAC, less interceptions.......... and greater room for error on QB throws. All of which will translate to better passing yards, and more TD's.

Statistically, what Marino did was more impressive.... Although Brady's numbers are closer in comparison then Brees' are.

Rogers isn't far behind Brees and Brady and the fact that you have 3 guys all in the hunt for a 25 year old yardage record is pretty telling in and of itself. Let alone 1 in the hunt for a TD record (that was set within the last few years as well).

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's crazy I didn't know that. They really should give us air passing yards.

I know ball placement matters, and hitting receiver in strides, but it would still provide a good comparison. I think QB's should get 10% of those YAC tops in the QB passer rating. You may have placed that ball accurately on your dump off behind the line of scrimmage, for your receiver not to get wrapped up at the point of catch, but the other 60 that comes after that for a touchdown, that's all on that receiver. Or put a max on it.

It's pretty ridiculous. Which is why stats like interception efficiency 5 td-to-interceptions % are so much more telling about a QB.

If you're a QB with a higher interception % there's a good chance you're also not the most accurate passer. You might just have a great receiver or OC saving your ass so you end up with a passable completion %.

Yepper. I'm not a big stats guy but 14.0 YPC is pretty ridiculous for a guy who threw that much in that era. There are a couple of guys like McNabb and Roethisberger who had high YPC but did not throw nearly as often. There are a ton of guys in the 50s, 60s and 70s who had high YPC but back then you didn't have nickel/dime defenses, etc. Incredible.

His WRs (Marks Brothers) averaged 19.0 and 18.4 yards per catch. With that said, going off memory here (I'm 40) those throws by Marino to those guys weren't 10 yd outs or slants with a lot of YAC, those were 15yd posts and when the stopped, the ball was there. Duper and Clayton were little guys who could stop on a dime and ran great routes. Duper had a little more speed but Clayton had slightly better hands. Tony Nathan was kinda like their Kevin Faulk. Great RB who could make guys miss.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I just love to see Brady do well no matter what's being discussed.

 

[nukin]

Would Tom Brady Be Better If He Played in a Dome? - New England Patriots - NESN.com I'll just leave this right here

 

[EJ Blitz]

Do we even know if Brady will play the entire game vs Bills?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Do we even know if Brady will play the entire game vs Bills?

Not sure if serious

 

[Uncle Rico]

Not sure if serious

C'mon man, you gotta include the visual. SOP here.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Yepper. I'm not a big stats guy but 14.0 YPC is pretty ridiculous for a guy who threw that much in that era. There are a couple of guys like McNabb and Roethisberger who had high YPC but did not throw nearly as often. There are a ton of guys in the 50s, 60s and 70s who had high YPC but back then you didn't have nickel/dime defenses, etc. Incredible.

His WRs (Marks Brothers) averaged 19.0 and 18.4 yards per catch. With that said, going off memory here (I'm 40) those throws by Marino to those guys weren't 10 yd outs or slants with a lot of YAC, those were 15yd posts and when the stopped, the ball was there. Duper and Clayton were little guys who could stop on a dime and ran great routes. Duper had a little more speed but Clayton had slightly better hands. Tony Nathan was kinda like their Kevin Faulk. Great RB who could make guys miss.

This is what I noticed about Carolina this year. Just for the record, I'm a Panthers fans primarily but the reason I started watching football in the first place was the Patriots' and then just decided to stick with my home state team ever since. Been kind of switching back and forth between the two teams ever since, but this year I started looking at stats and trying to pin-point Carolina's leak despite their offense and it became pretty apparent Newton's got some serious issues with efficiency and interceptions as well as late game pressure. We're like the Greatest Show on Turf basically.

But what became really eye opening for me other than Smith turning long bombs and bad passes into gold was when I started looking into yards after catch. I'm sure Pats fans are pretty familiar with Steve Smith, who has always been pretty great and underrated all around and no slouch when it came to yards after catch. Well this year something definitely changed.

Looking at the leader boards in YAC, I see the Pats with 2 guys in the top 10 Welker, Gronk, at 3rd and 5th respectively, which is pretty expected. But then I saw Smith at 17th, and Johnathan Stewart, our running back, at #7. And the difference kept growing throughout this season. So it became pretty eye-opening as far as how much offensive styles can make or break a QB's stats. You can see a pass here and there that goes for a lot of yards while watching the game, but until I looked it up, I didn't realize just how much they added up to. And boy do they add up.

As of right now, team yards after catch:

1 New England Patriots 2340
2 New Orleans Saints 2295
3 Detroit Lions 2086
4 Green Bay Packers 2054

That's a lot of yards that get credited to quarterbacks. I would like to see a similar breakdown for Marino but not sure where I can find it. Either Marino really was that damn good and was getting them through the air, or like you said, they may have been doing something similar to Air Coryell and what Carolina's doing this year and was depending on RB's.

I did find one website that keeps track of air yards per attempt though for current QB's.
Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position

Percentage of deep passes over 15 yards:
1-T.Tebow DEN 32.7%
2-C.Palmer OAK 29.3%
3-E.Manning NYG 29.0%
4-C.Newton CAR 27.2%
5-M.Moore MIA 25.4%


Now some people may argue that guys in west coast offenses will get hurt by looking at air yards.....well here's what's interesting

Total air passing yards(according to how advancedstats split them up):
1 Drew Brees - 3964
2 Tom Brady - 3816
3 Aaron Rodgers - 3587
4 Tony Romo - 3091
5 M. Schaub - 2014

Not at all. Great passers still come out on top. Although I'd argue some of those guys above would be on here with a better receiving squad who can catch. And furthermore when looking at efficiency.

air yards per attempt %(avg):
1-A.Rodgers 7.6
2-T.Brady 7.2
3-M.Schaub 6.9
4-D.Brees 6.8
5-T.Romo 6.4


So there's guys who go deep a lot and miss a lot and don't even make the list, and then there's quarterbacks that get a lot of yards by air. And then there's quarterbacks that are also efficiently getting yards by air at a high completion %. And I highly doubt too many people would argue with the last list. Efficiency stats >>>>> count/total stats.


PS: I would have loved to see what Brady could have done with someone like Smith, and likewise what Smith's stats would look like with Brady throwing him the ball.

 

[Mogamedogz]

Don't know but I feel like both players aren't too concerned about the record.

oh Bull****. Of coarse they are. let's not be naive.

 

[strngplyr]

As of right now, team yards after catch:

1 New England Patriots 2340
2 New Orleans Saints 2295
3 Detroit Lions 2086
4 Green Bay Packers 2054


Total air passing yards(according to how advancedstats split them up):
1 Drew Brees - 3964
2 Tom Brady - 3816
3 Aaron Rodgers - 3587
4 Tony Romo - 3091
5 M. Schaub - 2014

Ok, so, the way I view these 2 things is one is yards a receiver gets after catching the ball, that one is obvious, the 2nd is yards the ball travels through the air, no?

This says that Brady and Brees have over 6100 yards. Either I'm reading these very wrong, or one of the two stats is incredibly far off. Maybe even both. I'm going to say the "total air yards" is off by a mile.

 

[strngplyr]

oh Bull****. Of coarse they are. let's not be naive.

Caring about the record is one thing, game planning for it is another. Neither is going to purposely game plan to break it, that would be completely idiotic unless you have everything locked up. Winning comes first.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Ok, so, the way I view these 2 things is one is yards a receiver gets after catching the ball, that one is obvious, the 2nd is yards the ball travels through the air, no?

This says that Brady and Brees have over 6100 yards. Either I'm reading these very wrong, or one of the two stats is incredibly far off. Maybe even both. I'm going to say the "total air yards" is off by a mile.

One is yards after catch and one is air yards according to advancedstats.com. I believed they already include a certain percentage of yards after catch into the QB's air yards number. You will have to read their description of it.

I believe they use a league average for screen passes that would normally result in negative yardage when it comes to air yards. They took it a step further than just raw positive air yards because of so many teams that rely on screen passes. Just like QB's shouldn't be credited with all the yards after catch, they should not be punished for designed screen passes. Those guys are pretty good about stats and football logic at least when it comes to a couple of the stats they track that I looked into.

If you wanted pure net air yards estimate then this would be a half ass way to estimated it.

Total passing yards
1 Drew Brees 4,780
2 Tom Brady 4,593
3 Eli Manning 4,362
4 Aaron Rodgers 4,360
5 Matthew Stafford 4,145

minus

Team total yards after catch
1 New England Patriots 2340
2 New Orleans Saints 2295
3 Detroit Lions 2086
4 Green Bay Packers 2054
5 NY Giants 1842

= estimated net air yards:
1 Eli Manning 2520
2 Drew Brees 2485
3 Aaron Rodgers 2306
4 Tom Brady 2253
5 Detroit Lions 2059

* the problem is we're subtracting team yards after catch which is only good for estimating full season starters, doesn't account for non-QB passes or back-ups, and as explained above, will punish QB's who throw designed screen passes. Nobody really tracks pure net air yards for the quarterbacks that I know of. And of course you still have the attempts problem. Which is why efficiency stats are better. It at least accounts for that part.

net air yards avg per attempt
1 Aaron Rodgers 2306 yards/ 473 attempts = 4.9 ypa
2 Eli Manning 2520 yards / 529 = 4.8 ypa
3 Drew Brees 2485 yards / 583 = 4.3 ypa
4 Tom Brady 2253 yards /530 attempts = 4.3 ypa
5 Mathew Stafford 2059 yards / 568 attempts = 3.6 ypa

Note I'm only re-ranking the top 5 in passing yards listed above so there may be a QB that's falling through the cracks but we're mainly interested in Brees/Brady. If you look at air yards alone there might be some QB's that are not in the top 5 in total passing.

But once again, this method penalizes guys who throw a lot of designed screen passes in their ypa, which is why I actually kind of like advancedstats air passing numbers. I think they got it right by crediting QB with a certain league average % and fixes the issue. I'm pretty sure that's how they do it, and by using league average instead of their own receiver's % they also fix the issue with QB's who get a lot of help from elite rushers in yac. Pretty cool. Although I don't expect the NFL to start doing this any time soon. It's too fair.

which is why advancedstats air ypa is closer to reality:
air yards per attempt %(avg):
1-A.Rodgers 7.6
2-T.Brady 7.2
3-M.Schaub 6.9
4-D.Brees 6.8
5-T.Romo 6.4

Rodgers is still king but Eli doesn't make the cut. Either because he's inefficient, can't sell a screen, or because the Giants suck in screen passes. One or more of those. Neither does Stafford.