Patriots officially a top 10 Defense!

[captain stone]

man...even when I was a kid I never drank no g-dyamed kool aid...c'mon, let's find something else besides this idiotic metaphor to describe fans who believe in the team and the system

We drank the Kool-Aid as kids all the time when it contained the saccharin. Mmm...

 

[Ring 6]

Being a chronic complainer and being realistic are not always mutually exclusive.

It is unless the team you are complaining about is chronically bad.
Thats not the case here.

 

[Fixit]

When they faced that "pretty rough opening schedule", they were lit up like a Christmas tree. When the defense has been in a position to come up with a stop and win a game, it's failed miserably. That's sort of the point here.



It's been done already, time and again.

Of course it has.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree that no one stat defines everything, but only a fool would think that yardage allowed is more significant than points allowed. It is points that go on the scoreboard and win or lose games.

When I rate a defense for a general comparison, I use points allowed. When I rate an offense for a general comparison, I use points scored. When I'm trying to look deeper than surface level, points allowed becomes much less important, because it ignores too much to be dispositive.

When the sample size is so significant as to largely negate variability in quality of offenses faced (and 10 games is a substantial sample size) you can also put a lot of creedance into the validity of the stat.

In a league that's got 32 teams, and where injuries can have such a significant impact upon teams, 10 games is nowhere near enough of a sample size. Even 16 games isn't enough. We're stuck doing the best we can with the data we have, though.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The Patriots are also 8th in the league in total team takeaways, or turnovers forced, with 20.

That is a stat that is probably less well-correlated with winning than total points allowed is correlated with winning, but I would expect it to have a much higher correlation with winning than yardage allowed would have.

ANy way you look at it, you have to seriously cherry-pick stats to insist that the Patriots defense is the worst in the league or even close to it.

 

[captain stone]

It is unless the team you are complaining about is chronically bad.
Thats not the case here.

Perhaps it may depend on which aspect of the team is drawing the complaints.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Patriots are also 8th in the league in total team takeaways, or turnovers forced, with 20.

That is a stat that is probably less well-correlated with winning than total points allowed is correlated with winning, but I would expect it to have a much higher correlation with winning than yardage allowed would have.

ANy way you look at it, you have to seriously cherry-pick stats to insist that the Patriots defense is the worst in the league or even close to it.

No, you don't. All you have to do is go to the stat that is generally used.

 

[mgcolby]

Let's hope so. It appears that Welker is going to be double teamed often (or their best defender is put on him). Gronk, and Hernandez, better be the mismatch that Brady can routinely go to or the Jekyll and Hyde offense will be too much Hyde. On an additional note, the Patriots are also lacking enough backfield receiving production. It would be nice to see that come alive soon.

The Patriot O better find a way to be more effective against these man/hybrid man coverages. If it becomes a well entrenched method for stopping the O, opposing D's will become comfortably confident this is how you beat the Patriots. Patriots past kept opposing teams up late wondering how to stop them and that, obviously, is a good thing.

If they can get Vereen up to speed he can be a huge threat against Man coverage out of the backfield. His speed is ridiculous, I don't know if he wasn't healthy or if it was simply a numbers game through the first half of the season, but I'm glad he is getting his feet wet. He is straight out of the Best/Forte mold, getting him one on one with a LB out of the backfield while the rest of the DB's are down field in man coverage could be a dagger to opposing defenses that try to instill the latest "blueprint".

Off topic...am I the only that hates the term blueprint in sports? Blueprint it sounds idiotic to me and annoys me to no end.

 

[mgcolby]

I thought statistics were for losers?

Some may be....but not this one..

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

No, you don't. All you have to do is go to the one single stat that is generally used for no obvious reason whatsoever, and applied incorrectly as a stand-alone measure of defensive ability

I modified your statement to make it more accurate and relevant to this discussion, adding the words in bold.

 

[Deus Irae]

I modified your statement to make it more accurate and relevant to this discussion

No, you didn't. What you did was "modify it" to try making it fit your argument, because you had made a lousy argument that didn't hold up. I don't use the yards stat, as I noted, but using it is not cherry picking, which was your claim.

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps it may depend on which aspect of the team is drawing the complaints.

I don't think anyone described as a chronic complainer limits their complaining to a single topic, and even if so, they are clearly giving it too much attention if it isn't causing a lack of success.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

No, you didn't. What you did was "modify it" to try making it fit your argument, because you had made a lousy argument that didn't hold up. I don't use the yards stat, as I noted, but using it is not cherry picking, which was your claim.

Cherry-picking is to focus on one isolated stat to argue a point that is contradicted by many other stats that would lead to a very different opinion.

I don't have all of the statistics to do a complete analysis, but I would be very surprised to learn that the Patriots have anything but a better than average defense when based upon:

points allowed per game
turnovers forced per game
points allowed per defensive snap
percentage of plays yielded that result in points scored
rushing yards allowed per game
turnovers forced that result in easy scores for the offense
perhaps others?

On the other hand, what statistics do you have to rely on that suggest the Patriots defense is the worst in the league? Only two, and one is the cause of the other: passing yardage allowed per game and total yardage allowed per game.

To argue that the Patriots have the worst defense in the league (and I don't know if you are saying that, but a great many people on ESPN and NFL Network are) then it is the very definition of cherry-picking statistics.

 

[moosekill]

When I rate a defense for a general comparison, I use points allowed. When I rate an offense for a general comparison, I use points scored. When I'm trying to look deeper than surface level, points allowed becomes much less important, because it ignores too much to be dispositive.



In a league that's got 32 teams, and where injuries can have such a significant impact upon teams, 10 games is nowhere near enough of a sample size. Even 16 games isn't enough. We're stuck doing the best we can with the data we have, though.

I'm sorry Deus but really????????? Part 1 you have been ripping the pats on yards allowed. Now you come here and post you do look at points but just as a general comparison. They what, well according to what you have written, for that in depth analysis you switch over to yards. LOL perhaps you could look at strength of schedule, points scored by other teams, but to dismiss it, well that's silly.

Part 2, um how many games would you like to use to make a "sample size" More than a season. What do you think the definition of a sample is? Do you want to base how good this year's defense is based on how well they play for the next three seasons? LoL that is the dumbest statement I have ever seen you make.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I am not a fantasy football player, but a friend who is tells me that his league bases team defense on a combination of points allowed and turnovers created.

In that analysis, his league considers the Patriots to have the 12th best defense in the NFL. He is not sure if those rankings right now take into account last night's game.

Fantasy football rankings are not to my knowledge grounded in reality, but they are probably more grounded in reality than the practice of relying on yards given up as a stand-alone measure of defensive ability. Last night's game was a helluva close game based on yards allowed, so I guess both defenses played nearly equally well, right?

 

[Deus Irae]

Cherry-picking is to focus on one isolated stat to argue a point that is contradicted by many other stats that would lead to a very different opinion.

I don't have all of the statistics to do a complete analysis, but I would be very surprised to learn that the Patriots have anything but a better than average defense when based upon:

points allowed per game
turnovers forced per game
points allowed per defensive snap
percentage of plays yielded that result in points scored
rushing yards allowed per game
turnovers forced that result in easy scores for the offense
perhaps others?

On the other hand, what statistics do you have to rely on that suggest the Patriots defense is the worst in the league? Only two, and one is the cause of the other: passing yardage allowed per game and total yardage allowed per game.

To argue that the Patriots have the worst defense in the league (and I don't know if you are saying that, but a great many people on ESPN and NFL Network are) then it is the very definition of cherry-picking statistics.

No, that's not what cherry picking is. Cherry picking is, by definition:

cher·ry-pick
  cherry picking pronunciation [cher-ee-pik] Informal.
verb (used with object)
1.
to select with great care:

Cherry picking | Define Cherry picking at Dictionary.com

intransitive verb
: to select the best or most desirable
transitive verb
: to select as being the best or most desirable; also : to select the best or most desirable from <cherry–picked the art collection>

Cherry picking - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary

Referring to yards as the measure is simply pointing to the conventionally used method. That's pretty much the opposite of cherry picking.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm sorry Deus but really????????? Part 1 you have been ripping the pats on yards allowed. Now you come here and post you do look at points but just as a general comparison. They what, well according to what you have written, for that in depth analysis you switch over to yards. LOL perhaps you could look at strength of schedule, points scored by other teams, but to dismiss it, well that's silly.

What the hell are you talking about? You're not even pretending to read what I've written at this point.

Part 2, um how many games would you like to use to make a "sample size" More than a season. What do you think the definition of a sample is? Do you want to base how good this year's defense is based on how well they play for the next three seasons? LoL that is the dumbest statement I have ever seen you make.

A sample size can be of any size, so I'm not sure what point you think you're making here. The issue here was what would be a sufficiently large sample.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

You chose yards allowed to determine that the Patriots have the worst defense in the entire league.

You chose to select as being the best or most desirable that particular statistic, to the exclusion of any other statistics, to draw your preferred conclusion.

By the definition of cherry-picking, the definition that you provided, you are most definitely cherry-picking statistics. You justify it by saying, rightly, that others do it as well. That does not keep it from being cherry-picking.

This is not that hard to understand!

 

[Deus Irae]

You chose yards allowed to determine that the Patriots have the worst defense in the entire league.

You chose to select as being the best or most desirable that particular statistic, to the exclusion of any other statistics, to draw your preferred conclusion.

By the definition of cherry-picking, the definition that you provided, you are most definitely cherry-picking statistics. You justify it by saying, rightly, that others do it as well. That does not keep it from being cherry-picking.

This is not that hard to understand!

How hard is it for people here to grasp simple concepts?

If I'd said something like "The Patriots are #32 in the league on 3rd downs, on Thursdays, after 8:45 pm, in a dome, after a win against a top 10 team..." THAT would be cherry picking. Simply pointing to the conventionally used method is not.

And I didn't choose the method in the first place: the NFL chose it long ago. Hell, using points against instead of total yardage, which I think makes more sense overall, is cherry picking in comparison.

 

[mgteich]

Last I heard, the net of points scored to points allowed is the most important statistic in each game of the season. Win this stat 16 times and the rest don't matter.