Biggest Concern Post-Moss: Bill O'Brien

[Bobs My Uncle]

You're not paying attention. As I've indicated, I'd like to still have Moss being used primarily as a decoy and occassional red zone threat, not the "focal point" of the offense, if he was willing to accept this role. He clearly isn't.

If he's the focal point of the offense, he might get his 10-12 TDs, but Brady's completion rate would plummet and his interceptions would go up. And to answer your question - no, 3 TDs in 4 games is not worth an incomplete pass 59% of the time.

OK, whatever. You sound like the guy who wouldn't want Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson because some of their touches resulted in negative yardage.

To each his own I guess.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

OK, whatever. You sound like the guy who wouldn't want Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson because some of their touches resulted in negative yardage.

To each his own I guess.

I think you're not looking at the whole picture here. Against the Jets, Moss made one of the most amazing catches I've ever seen. He also dropped a pass, gave up on a route that was intercepted, and alligator-armed another pass. Brady threw another pick when forcing the ball to Moss who was double-covered. It wasn't Moss's fault, but it felt like Brady was going out of his way to try to appease him.

I really am going to miss Moss, but even the biggest Moss fan can't deny he hasn't played very well. He has caught 3 TDs, but only 6 other passes, and let's not forget that he leads the league in dropped passes with 5. He's gotten lots of targets but not produced, given up on several routes, not even bothered with blocking, argued with the coaching staff, caused distractions even after wins...there's not exactly much we could do here.

He's going to Minnesota and he's going to have a huge year with Favre. Favre loves to throw the ball up and give his guy a chance, and Randy loves going up to get it. They'll connect a lot, miss a lot, maybe win a few games or maybe not. Randy will probably put up 200 yards on our secondary when we play them.

But no matter what he does with Minnesota, he wasn't going to do it for us. He was mentally gone, checked out, and nothing short of a massive contract was going to change that.

 

[emoney_33]

I think you're not looking at the whole picture here. Against the Jets, Moss made one of the most amazing catches I've ever seen. He also dropped a pass, gave up on a route that was intercepted, and alligator-armed another pass. Brady threw another pick when forcing the ball to Moss who was double-covered. It wasn't Moss's fault, but it felt like Brady was going out of his way to try to appease him..

EVEN if what you claim is true (it's not), that is a knock on Brady. So you believe Brady is a system QB that isn't good enough to make the right decision when he has an elite receiver on the team?

 

[lamafist]

I think people are putting WAY too much importance into play calling.

Gameday decision-making is a relatively small part of a coach's job, and play calling is a relatively small part of a coach's gameday strategizing. And then to focus on playcalling in such a reductive, narrow manner -- how can you possibly think that any meaningful judgements can be made on that criteria?

The criticisms one finds in threads like this aren't even coherent enough to be wrong. It's just a lot of motivated and post-hoc reasoning. People act like any time something doesn't work, it was necessarily the wrong move, as opposed to just being poorly executed, or hell, maybe just executed not quite as well as the opponent executed their play.

 

[emoney_33]

And I don't subscribe to the Patsfans.com favorite past time of bashing the OC. It is humerous to see people wish for Charlie to come back, given the fact that this board had me convinced that he was the worst OC in history, even after winning 3 SB's.

Nor do I, but I can't ignore BB's actions either. He did not give O'Brien the OC title after his first trial year. So that tells me that he is still learning and isn't quite there yet. I don't want Weis back and I'm fine with BB growing his coaches as well as his players.

Not saying you were one of them, because I don't know. I just find it hard to bash a guy when he produced a top 5 scoring offense last season and is leading the league in scoring this season (ST's and Defensive TD's are noted).

Absolutely, most of the OC bashing is just scapegoating. O'Brien isn't -terrible- but he still has lots of room to grow.

The more I listen to Troy, Tedy, Rich Gannon, Mike Lombardi etc... I think this offense will be more dynamic and far less predictable. Tate needs to touch the ball more, especially in space. He won't command over the top help right away, but all it takes is for him to catch a few deep balls and he will start to draw it. I am not blind to what Moss meant to this offense, but I also think some people are taking what he meant to the offense to the extreme today.

That's what it has been becoming even when Moss was here. For all we know Moss and BB had respectful conversations about Moss' future and they both mutually decided that it was best to move on. Moss got traded to a good (for him) situation, at a time that has the potential to directly help the Patriots in week 5.

I will surely not be surprised if we finish the year as a top 5 offense, although I expected to be #1. All in all, the success of this season has always relied on the defensive growth. They have less room for error now, but I still believe they can do it

 

[jczxohn1]

In evaluating BOB, you have to realize that play-calling for Tom is always a presentation of options. If 4th Qtr production is a problem, Brady is as big a part of the decision making process as anyone. IMO, since his injury, Tom has been more likely to rely on guys he feels he can trust, and that has been Moss, Welker, and Faulk. He's said as much, intimating he'll throw to them until they stop him. Once they do, lately in the 2nd 1/2, there haven't been many successful options. Some say that Charley Weiss drove the bus in Tom's early going successfully, but CW made some pretty bone-headed calls at times, too. The real mark of success in those days was, IMO, Tom's ability to spread the ball around. This last game with the Dolphins, hopefully, is a harbinger of what is to come.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think people are putting WAY too much importance into play calling.

Gameday decision-making is a relatively small part of a coach's job, and play calling is a relatively small part of a coach's gameday strategizing.

Really? Football is more like chess than any other major American sport. Football isn't like baseball or basketball where the coach is just there to keep the ship stable. The coach has a massive impact in football. It's a big reason why Dallas and San Diego will never win rings no matter how good their personnel is.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

EVEN if what you claim is true (it's not), that is a knock on Brady. So you believe Brady is a system QB that isn't good enough to make the right decision when he has an elite receiver on the team?

A lot of Brady's interceptions over the past two seasons were forced passes to Moss. Most of the time, these were poor decisions when Moss wasn't open, often thrown into double coverage.

I don't believe Brady is a system QB, but I do believe he was conscious of keeping Moss happy. In the same way that you try to feed the ball early to some players to keep their heads in the game, there were definitely forced plays to Moss over the past two seasons.

Part of that is Moss is dynamic enough to make a play on the ball even in double coverage, but they were still poor decisions. As I said, that's not Moss's fault, but keeping a moody elite WR happy is something many QBs must be aware of and deal with.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

A lot of Brady's interceptions over the past two seasons were forced passes to Moss. Most of the time, these were poor decisions when Moss wasn't open, often thrown into double coverage.

I don't believe Brady is a system QB, but I do believe he was conscious of keeping Moss happy. In the same way that you try to feed the ball early to some players to keep their heads in the game, there were definitely forced plays to Moss over the past two seasons.

Part of that is Moss is dynamic enough to make a play on the ball even in double coverage, but they were still poor decisions. As I said, that's not Moss's fault, but keeping a moody elite WR happy is something many QBs must be aware of and deal with.

Similar complaints have been made that Brady locks in on Welker. We'll see if the same interception issues happen with Welker now that Moss is gone.

 

[IllegalContact]

so far this season, the best offensive scheme that has worked has been a mixture of nu-huddle and quick counts.

guess who didn't fit that scheme?

 

[emoney_33]

A lot of Brady's interceptions over the past two seasons were forced passes to Moss. Most of the time, these were poor decisions when Moss wasn't open, often thrown into double coverage.

Yet he threw INTs less frequently than any year without Moss, all while increasing his completion %, yardage and TDs?

You do know that he's human and will make mistakes no matter who he is throwing too right?

I don't believe Brady is a system QB, but I do believe he was conscious of keeping Moss happy. In the same way that you try to feed the ball early to some players to keep their heads in the game, there were definitely forced plays to Moss over the past two seasons.

Of course you beleive that, because it fits with your conclusion.

Part of that is Moss is dynamic enough to make a play on the ball even in double coverage, but they were still poor decisions. As I said, that's not Moss's fault, but keeping a moody elite WR happy is something many QBs must be aware of and deal with.

You got it man! They threw to him to keep him happy not because there was a high reward for doing so. Silly me, I always thought elite receivers were I dunno ELITE and that's why they got the balls thrown their way.

 

[emoney_33]

Similar complaints have been made that Brady locks in on Welker. We'll see if the same interception issues happen with Welker now that Moss is gone.

There will be complaints no matter what. Every single year there are complaints about something because for some reason people feel perfection is the only acceptable outcome.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I disagree that Moss was a negative for the offense. It's not a coincidence that Brady's yardage, %, and qb rating spiked up after Moss arrived

 

[DropKickFlutie]

so far this season, the best offensive scheme that has worked has been a mixture of nu-huddle and quick counts.

guess who didn't fit that scheme?

I'm a big fan of the greater use of multiple TE sets. I can also agree that Moss wouldn't fit a shift towards just hitting the open man. At the same time, Moss was jettisoned because he got into a heated argument with an inexperienced hasn't-done-anything OC, and now the spotlight moving forward is on the OC to show to his boss that they made the right choice.

 

[Haley]

My concern with O'Brien is not whether or not he's running the show well. Clearly you must be doing something right when you have the number 1 offense in the league.

However, I did find myself disturbed by this public fight with Moss. Obviously whatever the problem was, it was not handled well. As coach, I see it as his responsibility to get that situation under control or at minimum out of the public eye. I was disappointed by his lack of professionalism in that situation.

 

[IcyPatriot]

So Randy Moss, 2nd best receiver ever, is not on the team anymore.
I have 1000% faith in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that this team will always be a contender with this pair still around.

My biggest concern, however, is that Bill O'Brien is the offensive coordinator. I know the OC is always bashed here as a convenient scapegoat, but in this particular case I think he is a glaring weak link on the team.

Since 2009, under Bill O'Brien the Patriots have been the best 1st half team in the league, but completely underwhelming in the 2nd half. Tom Brady has the worst road 4th quarter QB rating of any QB since 2009. To me, this tells me that there is enough talent on the team and that they start games with good game plans, but that coaching is an issue once the game starts. Bill Belichick simply can't be in 4 different places at the same time, he's merely one man.

Making comparisons to 2001-2004 don't really make sense to me, because at that time you had two very experienced coordinators who were trained under Bill Parcells working for Belichick. It's very different now.

How about Bill O'Brien can be more creative now that he does not have to coddle a receiver past his prime.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

How about Bill O'Brien can be more creative now that he does not have to coddle a receiver past his prime.

I would rephrase that. Bill O'Brien *must* be more creative now that he doesn't have the 2nd best receiver in NFL history constantly drawing double teams on every play. He'll actually have to earn his paycheck now as a play caller.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

My concern with O'Brien is not whether or not he's running the show well. Clearly you must be doing something right when you have the number 1 offense in the league.

I don't know about that. Did you know that last year the Patriots had a top 5 offense and top 5 defense, according to the stats?

Sometimes stats can be misleading, especially with this Patriots team which has amazing 1st half numbers but dramatically different 2nd half performances.

 

[woodheadwow]

I will say that I think O'Brien is improving. However, he is still too predictable. The one point I haven't seen made is that his formations give his plays away far too often. Last year, it was a joke. I could call "run" or "pass" preplay 90% of the time. His only regular crossup' play was his famous/favorite finesse slow developing trap draw. Even that play I hate, because any defensive player that knows how to read keys can pick up the pulling guard and blow up the play far too easily. I don't believe the fake draw ever featured a pulling guard (I may have missed it, but I don't recall seeing it), so there was nothing to keep the defense honest.

This year we aren't seeing shotgun run nearly as often. Is this because of the personell or because O'Brien is improving, or both? I think it's both, BUT there are still too many tells. The halfback or tailback often moves up a half a yard when they dive to the left, and again on PA they don't put the RBs in the same slightly forward position. This drives me INSANE. This is pro football. As a casual fan that doesn't break down game tape, if I can notice this so easily, what does that say? I've also noticed suspicious variations of splits for certain plays. A lot of teams do this stuff, but if you are going to try and give yourself this type of edge, you have to cross them up enough if you want to capitalize on overplays. The GOOD OC out there tend to do this in key spots and get big plays when they do it. As far as I can tell, O'Brien NEVER or very rarely does this.

What he does do pretty well is innovate new imaginative plays into the offense. Based on what I've seen, though... he shows his good stuff too early and goes with what he knows (and what the other team knows) when the going gets tough. There is a reason that BB didn't promote him this year.

I'm willing to give the guy the rest of the year to show he can adapt to this job. Either he makes it and gets promoted, or he gets fired. I bet BB is thinking the same way. So far, I think it's probably 60/40 he gets fired as the bad has slightly outweighed the good.

WW

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Yet he threw INTs less frequently than any year without Moss, all while increasing his completion %, yardage and TDs?

You do know that he's human and will make mistakes no matter who he is throwing too right?

Moss deserves some credit for the yardage and TDs, but not sure what you mean by INT frequency or completion %. In terms of INT frequency, 2009 was at 2.3%, which also happens to be Brady's career frequency as well.

Also, Moss is a deep threat and that's not a high-percentage pass. Moss caught around 60% of his passes compared to targets. By comparison, Pats WRs as a whole caught 65% of targets. I don't expect this to be high, and it's unfair to expect it to be high, just not sure why you mentioned it. It has more to do with all the short passes to Welker/Edelman/Faulk.

You got it man! They threw to him to keep him happy not because there was a high reward for doing so. Silly me, I always thought elite receivers were I dunno ELITE and that's why they got the balls thrown their way.

Not necessarily. As an example, Tony Romo tried to keep T.O. happy, and eventually there were clashes with Jason Garrett, and the Cowboys eventually booting T.O. At the time, he was an elite WR, but he wasn't content to play within the flow of the game. It's no different with Moss when he's not focused. And lets not forget at one time the Vikings actually had a "Randy Ratio" and tried to force 40% of the passes to him, which culminated in a 6-10 season.

You seem to think I'm bashing Moss, but just so we're clear, I like him a lot. I just feel this year was not going to be a good year for him here for a variety of reasons, and it seemed to show in his play. He seemed very distracted by the contract uncertainty, and he was not going to be able to put up the numbers he wanted to get the contract he wanted with our new offensive focus on running the ball and integrating the tight ends in the passing game.

I fully expect him to light it up in Minnesota, he's got the perfect QB to feed him the ball and give him chances to make plays, he's heavily-motivated to prove us wrong, and he'll probably destroy us when he returns to New England in a few weeks.

But he wasn't going to be able to do it for us for a lot of different reasons. It is what it is.