Biggest Concern Post-Moss: Bill O'Brien

[emoney_33]

Moss deserves some credit for the yardage and TDs, but not sure what you mean by INT frequency or completion %. In terms of INT frequency, 2009 was at 2.3%, which also happens to be Brady's career frequency as well.

Attempts / INTs. In 2007 it was absurdly low, in 2009 it was only bested by 2003 something like every 43.6 attempts in 09 and every 43.9 attempts in 03. My point being against those saying that Moss caused Brady to throw bad passes/INTs. But being fair, I can understand an argument that Welker has more to do with the increase in completion %. How much help Moss gave with taking the top off the defense in that regard I guess we will soon find out.

(Interesting side note: in 2003 Brady attempted 63 passes that traveled 21+ yards in the air, in 2009... 60).

Also, Moss is a deep threat and that's not a high-percentage pass. Moss caught around 60% of his passes compared to targets. By comparison, Pats WRs as a whole caught 65% of targets. I don't expect this to be high, and it's unfair to expect it to be high, just not sure why you mentioned it. It has more to do with all the short passes to Welker/Edelman/Faulk.

You are most likely correct and I have no idea just how much Moss' attention impacted the short game.

Not necessarily. As an example, Tony Romo tried to keep T.O. happy, and eventually there were clashes with Jason Garrett, and the Cowboys eventually booting T.O. At the time, he was an elite WR, but he wasn't content to play within the flow of the game. It's no different with Moss when he's not focused. And lets not forget at one time the Vikings actually had a "Randy Ratio" and tried to force 40% of the passes to him, which culminated in a 6-10 season.

Well Moss was in the Patriots system for his 4th year, that's not how the Patriots operate, Moss is not TO and Brady is definitely not Romo. I just can't buy into the idea they threw to Moss to please him rather than because they felt it was best for the team. For example this season so far it seems they were shifting their strategy even with Moss here.

You seem to think I'm bashing Moss, but just so we're clear, I like him a lot. I just feel this year was not going to be a good year for him here for a variety of reasons, and it seemed to show in his play. He seemed very distracted by the contract uncertainty, and he was not going to be able to put up the numbers he wanted to get the contract he wanted with our new offensive focus on running the ball and integrating the tight ends in the passing game.

I fully expect him to light it up in Minnesota, he's got the perfect QB to feed him the ball and give him chances to make plays, he's heavily-motivated to prove us wrong, and he'll probably destroy us when he returns to New England in a few weeks.

But he wasn't going to be able to do it for us for a lot of different reasons. It is what it is.

Fair enough, with the 4 games of data we have I can't really argue against any of that. We'll never know how his stats would have ended up but it's definitely reasonable if not likely that they would have trended downward as you felt all along. Hopefully BB keeps true to form and doesn't allow the team's best player to beat us when the Vikes are in town.

Good points overall and I know I come off strong in Moss' defense at times but it's more to do with the irrational "Moss ruined the offense" crowd than reasonable discussions like what you have brought up. And I can definitely agree that "it is what it is"

 

[patsfan13]

BF, you say this as if it's a bad thing to give Moss the ball, in order to keep him happy.

Moss should be the primary target each play. If he isn't then something needs to be done to ensure that he is.

Making Moss the focal point of an offense isn't a bad thing. Not knowing how to do so is however, and this is the problem we have with our doofus play caller.

The open receiver should be the target each game.

In the second half of the Jets game the ball was forced to Moss the result was 3 TO's and a loss.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The open receiver should be the target each game.

In the second half of the Jets game the ball was forced to Moss the result was 3 TO's and a loss.

You write as if 2nd half duds haven't become a recurring theme for this team dating back 19+ games. These problems are exclusive and separate from Randy Moss being on the team or not.

 

[patsfan13]

You write as if 2nd half duds haven't become a recurring theme for this team dating back 19+ games. These problems are exclusive and separate from Randy Moss being on the team or not.

A lot of the poor 2nd half's from the Pats involved Brady making poor decisions, what we saw last week was Brady making better decisions.

An offense that spreads the ball around is more effective we have a wide variety of weapons now. Tate will see a lot of single coverage, Welker, Edleman, Hernandez, Gronk. Not worried about scoring points.

All have good hands. Brady can identify coverage and throw to the correct receiver and NOT force the ball to keep the superstar happy and I am fine with that.

The panic here is unfreakinbelievable, we are 2nd in the league in scoring the offense won't disappear because Moss is gone.

 

[lamafist]

Really? Football is more like chess than any other major American sport. Football isn't like baseball or basketball where the coach is just there to keep the ship stable. The coach has a massive impact in football. It's a big reason why Dallas and San Diego will never win rings no matter how good their personnel is.

Never said that coaches don't have impact on their teams. Of course they do -- their effect on their team's play cannot be overstated. But that doesn't mean that every part of their job is as vital as every other.

Any coach will tell you, they do their most important work Monday through Saturday. Integrating all of the scouting data into a cohesive strategy, devising a game plan, imparting it to the players, making sure they understand not just their own role in the gameplan, but how it meshes with their teammates'. For a team with as fluid and polymorphous as the Pats, it's a huge undertaking.

Now, that's not to say their work on game day isn't key, too -- there are a lot of adjustments to be made, a lot of tweaking of techniques depending on the opponent's game plan, and communicating what they're seeing to their players, and explaining how and why they're going to react.

And yes, they call the plays, too -- but that's far from the most difficult or most game-influencing duties on game day, let alone all week. What play the coach chooses to call is simply the most obvious and recognizable coaching decisions, the only ones that the fans are immediately made cognizant of, and therefore, fans tend to exaggerate their importance, because it's something they can have a strong opinion on. Otherwise, you have to sit back and watch the game, resigned to the knowledge that the most important decisions the coaches are making and communicating to their players are details regarding the plays' executions that we'll never be privy to.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Good points overall and I know I come off strong in Moss' defense at times but it's more to do with the irrational "Moss ruined the offense" crowd than reasonable discussions like what you have brought up. And I can definitely agree that "it is what it is"

It does seem like a lot of people are blaming Moss for all the problems with our #1 offense, so I get it. And I'm still not quite sure I've accepted/understood everything myself.

Regarding interceptions on forced passes, some sleep has made this much clearer to me, and I guess we were both wrong. If Brady did force passes, it still didn't lead to a change in his career INT average of 2.3%. So Moss didn't really increase the interceptions (as I said) or reduce them (as you said). It was more or less the same.

As for feeding the ball, I should clarify since it was late and I wasn't really thinking straight. I don't think all the passes, or even the majority of passes, were forced to Moss to keep him happy. But there were a few passes, usually one or two a game, where it did feel forced. Maybe it was Tom giving Randy a chance to make a play since he is one of the few receivers that can catch passes while heavily covered. Sometimes Moss made a great play and sometimes he didn't, but I felt that they were poor decisions by Brady and throws he wouldn't even attempt if it was another receiver out there.

But yeah, I am going to miss Moss, and I think our offense will too. And all the Moss haters probably won't have much to say after we play the Vikings. I have no idea how we're going to cover him.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Any coach will tell you, they do their most important work Monday through Saturday. Integrating all of the scouting data into a cohesive strategy, devising a game plan, imparting it to the players, making sure they understand not just their own role in the gameplan, but how it meshes with their teammates'.

I agree that pre-game planning is a big part of a coaches job.

This coaching staff does a great job game planning, as evidenced by the fact that it was the best 1st half NFL team in 2009, with the best points differential.

At the same time, this team has lost games because once they played all their cards to start games, they have been unable to identify what the opponent is doing and how they are adjusting. It is very difficult for one man (Belichick) to keep track of all these changes during the game, and it's pretty clear at least to me that nobody else is able to help him out right now.


As for PF13 blaming the offense on Moss, it is no coincidence that the offensive yardage numbers, TD numbers, and Brady's QB rating all spiked up with Randy Moss on the team. With Moss gone, at best this offense will become what it was in 2003 (pre-Corey Dillon), where the offense will score somewhere around 380 total points for the year, making them an average offense.

 

[mgcolby]

Never said that coaches don't have impact on their teams. Of course they do -- their effect on their team's play cannot be overstated. But that doesn't mean that every part of their job is as vital as every other.

Any coach will tell you, they do their most important work Monday through Saturday. Integrating all of the scouting data into a cohesive strategy, devising a game plan, imparting it to the players, making sure they understand not just their own role in the gameplan, but how it meshes with their teammates'. For a team with as fluid and polymorphous as the Pats, it's a huge undertaking.

Now, that's not to say their work on game day isn't key, too -- there are a lot of adjustments to be made, a lot of tweaking of techniques depending on the opponent's game plan, and communicating what they're seeing to their players, and explaining how and why they're going to react.

And yes, they call the plays, too -- but that's far from the most difficult or most game-influencing duties on game day, let alone all week. What play the coach chooses to call is simply the most obvious and recognizable coaching decisions, the only ones that the fans are immediately made cognizant of, and therefore, fans tend to exaggerate their importance, because it's something they can have a strong opinion on. Otherwise, you have to sit back and watch the game, resigned to the knowledge that the most important decisions the coaches are making and communicating to their players are details regarding the plays' executions that we'll never be privy to.

Playcalling is just as important if not more important than anything installed during the week. A gameplan is great, but if you don't have the gameday wherewithall to implement the gameplan then it is worthless. OC's are usually fired because of their gameday decisions, not decisions made during the week. After all the HC usually has his stamp of approval on those decisions.

Bottom line if you can't call plays on gameday you can't be an OC in the NFL. Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan had a long discussion about this last year when the NFL was an OC firing squad. Pat made a point that he has seen several coaches who were brilliant at finding the opponents weaknesses and coming up with gameplans to exploit it, but come Sunday the guy would freeze and couldn't get the job done. And he said it went the other way as well, he has seen guys that looked sloppy in their game prep, and he thought there was no way in hell the gameplan was going to work. Then on Sunday the guy conducts a symphony.

 

[woodheadwow]

I've always suspected this. Thanks.

WW

Playcalling is just as important if not more important than anything installed during the week. A gameplan is great, but if you don't have the gameday wherewithall to implement the gameplan then it is worthless. OC's are usually fired because of their gameday decisions, not decisions made during the week. After all the HC usually has his stamp of approval on those decisions.

Bottom line if you can't call plays on gameday you can't be an OC in the NFL. Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan had a long discussion about this last year when the NFL was an OC firing squad. Pat made a point that he has seen several coaches who were brilliant at finding the opponents weaknesses and coming up with gameplans to exploit it, but come Sunday the guy would freeze and couldn't get the job done. And he said it went the other way as well, he has seen guys that looked sloppy in their game prep, and he thought there was no way in hell the gameplan was going to work. Then on Sunday the guy conducts a symphony.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

A lot of the poor 2nd half's from the Pats involved Brady making poor decisions, what we saw last week was Brady making better decisions.

An offense that spreads the ball around is more effective we have a wide variety of weapons now. Tate will see a lot of single coverage, Welker, Edleman, Hernandez, Gronk. Not worried about scoring points.

All have good hands. Brady can identify coverage and throw to the correct receiver and NOT force the ball to keep the superstar happy and I am fine with that.

The panic here is unfreakinbelievable, we are 2nd in the league in scoring the offense won't disappear because Moss is gone.

I would have been a lot more happy if most of the points we scored so far were due to our offense.

You are right that our O won't disappear; it just appears a lot less potent after the Moss trade.

Hoping we prove everyone wrong next Sunday and have the other teams struggling to prepare against our new offensive strategies - which can be anything at this point.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Playcalling is just as important if not more important than anything installed during the week. A gameplan is great, but if you don't have the gameday wherewithall to implement the gameplan then it is worthless. OC's are usually fired because of their gameday decisions, not decisions made during the week. After all the HC usually has his stamp of approval on those decisions.

Bottom line if you can't call plays on gameday you can't be an OC in the NFL. Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan had a long discussion about this last year when the NFL was an OC firing squad. Pat made a point that he has seen several coaches who were brilliant at finding the opponents weaknesses and coming up with gameplans to exploit it, but come Sunday the guy would freeze and couldn't get the job done. And he said it went the other way as well, he has seen guys that looked sloppy in their game prep, and he thought there was no way in hell the gameplan was going to work. Then on Sunday the guy conducts a symphony.

spot on.

teams like the Chargers are like this. Decent initial game plans, horrible in-game coaching

 

[lamafist]

Playcalling is just as important if not more important than anything installed during the week. A gameplan is great, but if you don't have the gameday wherewithall to implement the gameplan then it is worthless. OC's are usually fired because of their gameday decisions, not decisions made during the week. After all the HC usually has his stamp of approval on those decisions.

Bottom line if you can't call plays on gameday you can't be an OC in the NFL. Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan had a long discussion about this last year when the NFL was an OC firing squad. Pat made a point that he has seen several coaches who were brilliant at finding the opponents weaknesses and coming up with gameplans to exploit it, but come Sunday the guy would freeze and couldn't get the job done. And he said it went the other way as well, he has seen guys that looked sloppy in their game prep, and he thought there was no way in hell the gameplan was going to work. Then on Sunday the guy conducts a symphony.

But again, play-calling is only part of an OC's gameday duties. There are plenty of adjustments to be made regarding how a play is executed, rather than what particular play is called. Things like identifying how the o-line is being confused by the defensive front and adjusting the protection scheme accordingly affects the execution of all passing plays, not just the one being called at the moment. Identifying which DB is constantly peaking into the backfield can give the QB a heads up on big play possibility on any number of passing plays.

I'd be interesting in seeing this discussion between Kirwan and Ryan you're talking about, because my guess would be that they're not talking about simple play-calling, but rather in-game coaching.

And I'm not saying that a game can't be lost by particularly egregious play-calling. For example, going conservative with a lead too early, and calling run-run-pass on first, second and third downs respectively and thus going three and out on your last 3 possessions is a particular situation where old-school coaches still steeped in 70's-era football wisdom can hurt their team.

But there are also a lot of things that fans blame on the coach's play calling that have nothing to do with it. For example, if you think Brady is throwing Moss' way too much, that's not on Brady -- with the exception of screen passes, the Pats' don't have a dedicated "primary receiver" on their passing plays. The receivers have their routes, and Brady lets the defense determing which receiver they leave most open.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

lala, those adjustments in noticing what the opponent is doing, are also part of a good oc's job

 

[BillyD123]

So Randy Moss, 2nd best receiver ever, is not on the team anymore.
I have 1000% faith in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that this team will always be a contender with this pair still around.

My biggest concern, however, is that Bill O'Brien is the offensive coordinator. I know the OC is always bashed here as a convenient scapegoat, but in this particular case I think he is a glaring weak link on the team.

Since 2009, under Bill O'Brien the Patriots have been the best 1st half team in the league, but completely underwhelming in the 2nd half. Tom Brady has the worst road 4th quarter QB rating of any QB since 2009. To me, this tells me that there is enough talent on the team and that they start games with good game plans, but that coaching is an issue once the game starts. Bill Belichick simply can't be in 4 different places at the same time, he's merely one man.

Making comparisons to 2001-2004 don't really make sense to me, because at that time you had two very experienced coordinators who were trained under Bill Parcells working for Belichick. It's very different now.

Okay what really is the problem here?
For 1) O'Brian is the OC of the #1 passing offense in the NFL. Not to bad. Considering we're a passing offense under Brady.
2) Didn't Josh McDanials operate under a cloud of mystery as an OC at first?
He turned out to be the best OC is the NFL. 16-0 One year, If I remember?
3) I see more often that not, the defense can't hold the lead. And this has been addressed = New DC for 2010 And with BB very much involved. = This time the scheme comes from the horses mouth. Not Dean Pees
4) Parcells??? His nickname shouldn't be the Tuna. It should be "The salary cap screwer upper"! And then leaves you high and dry.
Believe me. This defense will come around in a big way. And with our special Special Teams (also under new managment) The Pats will be back on top in no time. Welcome Dynasty phase II.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Okay what really is the problem here?
For 1) O'Brian is the OC of the #1 passing offense in the NFL.

Simple question - do you think O'Brien is a good coordinator, yes or no? I'm also not sure of your stats - are you taking into account defensive and special teams touchdowns or just looking at points scored?

When Moss, Welker, and Brady were still together, I would argue that a blind monkey randomly pushing buttons on a keyboard could call plays and it would still be a top 10 offense.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

But again, play-calling is only part of an OC's gameday duties. There are plenty of adjustments to be made regarding how a play is executed, rather than what particular play is called. Things like identifying how the o-line is being confused by the defensive front and adjusting the protection scheme accordingly affects the execution of all passing plays, not just the one being called at the moment. Identifying which DB is constantly peaking into the backfield can give the QB a heads up on big play possibility on any number of passing plays.

I'd be interesting in seeing this discussion between Kirwan and Ryan you're talking about, because my guess would be that they're not talking about simple play-calling, but rather in-game coaching.

And I'm not saying that a game can't be lost by particularly egregious play-calling. For example, going conservative with a lead too early, and calling run-run-pass on first, second and third downs respectively and thus going three and out on your last 3 possessions is a particular situation where old-school coaches still steeped in 70's-era football wisdom can hurt their team.

But there are also a lot of things that fans blame on the coach's play calling that have nothing to do with it. For example, if you think Brady is throwing Moss' way too much, that's not on Brady -- with the exception of screen passes, the Pats' don't have a dedicated "primary receiver" on their passing plays. The receivers have their routes, and Brady lets the defense determing which receiver they leave most open.

Wait, so if Brady is too locked in on Moss too much, that's not on Brady? Then who is it on?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Some 1st half numbers:
Time of Possession: Baltimore 21, New England 9 minutes
Total receptions by Patriot receivers: 3

 

[IcyPatriot]

How about Bill O'Brien can be more creative now that he does not have to coddle a receiver past his prime.

Yup ... great point Ice ... you were 100% correct ... well done.

 

[Ring 6]

Simple question - do you think O'Brien is a good coordinator, yes or no? I'm also not sure of your stats - are you taking into account defensive and special teams touchdowns or just looking at points scored?

When Moss, Welker, and Brady were still together, I would argue that a blind monkey randomly pushing buttons on a keyboard could call plays and it would still be a top 10 offense.

Would you like to answer your own question now Drop Kick?

 

[Ring 6]

I agree that pre-game planning is a big part of a coaches job.

This coaching staff does a great job game planning, as evidenced by the fact that it was the best 1st half NFL team in 2009, with the best points differential.

At the same time, this team has lost games because once they played all their cards to start games, they have been unable to identify what the opponent is doing and how they are adjusting. It is very difficult for one man (Belichick) to keep track of all these changes during the game, and it's pretty clear at least to me that nobody else is able to help him out right now.


As for PF13 blaming the offense on Moss, it is no coincidence that the offensive yardage numbers, TD numbers, and Brady's QB rating all spiked up with Randy Moss on the team. With Moss gone, at best this offense will become what it was in 2003 (pre-Corey Dillon), where the offense will score somewhere around 380 total points for the year, making them an average offense.

Couldnt have been more wrong here, huh?