OT: Jets have a 1 year window

[Doggin94it]

With all the bandwagon jumping going on with the Jets of late, I've done some research on the NyJetsCap.com page and a couple of other places and basically come to the conclusion that the Jets are operating in a 1 year window - 2 years tops.

There are 3 factors that contribute to this:

1) Free Agents after 2010:

8 starters and 2 more significant contributors will be free agents next year, including:

Mangold
David Harris
Braylon Edwards
Santonio Holmes
Leon Washington
David Harris
Shaun Ellis
Brad Smith
Eric Smith
Pool
Richardson

Lets look at this list. Leon Washington will be a 29 year old third down back. He won't be resigned. Harris and Mangold will be priorities, and both will be locked up. Brad Smith, Eric Smith, Brodney Pool and Tony Richardson are all low level guys who will either re-sign or be replaced relatively cheaply.

That leaves 3 guys - Ellis, Holmes, and Edwards. Odds are the Jets will re-sign one of Edwards or Holmes, depending on who plays better this year and comes at a more cap-friendly price. The other will walk, likely bringing the Jets a 3rd round comp pick in return. Ellis will either sign a low level deal or leave; either way, I'd expect the Jets to draft his eventual replacement at DE in round 1 or 2 this year.

2) Team Salary Cap heading into 2010:

The Jets have committed $104 million for 30 players currently on the roster. While that doesn't seem high given the $127 million cap last year, the cap could potentially go down if the owners get their wish. More importantly, the Jets will be faced with resigning 2 pro bowl starters (Mangold and Harris), plus 2 even more significant FAs coming up the following year in Ferguson and Revis. Then there's the effect of point #3, which is coming up.

Good. Now look where a lot of that money is tied up. Alan Faneca, 7.75M salary. Bryan Thomas, 3.2M salary. LaDanian, 2.425M. Vernon Gholston, 2M salary (Gholston will likely be cut this season unless he turns it around - which I doubt he does. And while his signing bonus won't accelerate, his guaranteed salaries - which are the bulk of his cap hit - will, so don't pull out the "dead money" card with him; if you know the cap, you know it isn't real).

My guess is you're looking at the following for the Jets in 2011 (assuming there's football:

Offense:
QB - Sanchez
RB - Greene, Rookie/low level FA, Woodhead
FB - Richardson
WR - Holmes/Edwards, Cotchery, 2010 rookie
TE - Keller
OL - Ferguson-Rookie-Mangold-Moore-Woody

Defense
DL - DeVito-Jenkins-2010Rookie/Ellis
LB - 2010Rookie (Jerry Hughes?)-Harris-Scott-Pace
DB - Revis-Leonhard-Poole-Cromartie

I'll take it - especially since it ignores the likelihood of Tannenbaum filling some of those other spots with established veterans the same way he's acquired guys like Jenkins, Edwards, Cromartie and Holmes - via trade of middle round picks

3) Abandoning the draft:

Over the past 3 years, the Jets have basically ignored the later part of the draft and this is carrying into 2010 and even 2011. This is resulting in a significant lack of depth and the inability to manage the cap by replacing older and more expensive players with younger and cheaper ones.

2009 - They only drafted 3 players, 2 of whom are starters and 1 on the PS.
2008 - Drafted only 6 players: 1 starter, 1 contributor, 1 gigantic bust, and a 3rd string QB.
2007 - Drafted only 4 players: 2 starters and 2 no longer with the team.

2010-11: Jets do not have a 3rd or 5th round pick in 2010 and have already traded 3rd and 7th rounders in 2011.

While the Jets have certainly hit on the early round selections they've made (Revis, Mangold, Harris, Greene, Keller, Ferguson), they've done nothing in the middle to later rounds. Many of these players are now due very large contract extensions, which will force the Jets' hand a little in dealing with the middle-tier veterans currently on their roster.

Look at what the team has done in the UDFA market, though. Westermann, DeVito, Woodhead, Pitoitua, Kroul, Steinkuhler . . . the Jets' philosophy is that round 6 and 7 players are not vastly better than the top UDFA talent - and particularly not enough to make it worth retaining later round picks if those are the cost of a significant upgrade in talent at the front end of the draft (or, even better, in young vets). We'll see how that pans out.

 

[spacecrime]

...um....they made it to the Championship game last year.

That's one way of looking at it. Another is that they were 7-9 and out of the playoffs entirely until two teams laid down for them.

The truth is somewhere in the middle. The Jets are a solid 8-8 team that got hot at the right time.

Nothing wrong with that. Pats got hot at the right time in 2001, the Giants and Cards each got hot at the right time, but it doesn't mean they (or last year's Jets) are a perennial powerhouses. It means they were okay teams that got hot at the right time.

Call me when they make it to the superbowl. But don't take forever. I'm almost 63 years old.

 

[TedyB54]

Re: Jets have a 1 year window (oops, didn't mean to post in draft forum)

Haha, love it!

... Can you do one about how the Colts' window is closing, too?

Closing?

As long as Manning is behind center for the Colts, that window for the Colts is not only already closed, he's painted it shut.

Long Live the "Pick 6" !

 

[bucky]

Lets look at this list. Leon Washington will be a 29 year old third down back. He won't be resigned. Harris and Mangold will be priorities, and both will be locked up. Brad Smith, Eric Smith, Brodney Pool and Tony Richardson are all low level guys who will either re-sign or be replaced relatively cheaply.

That leaves 3 guys - Ellis, Holmes, and Edwards. Odds are the Jets will re-sign one of Edwards or Holmes, depending on who plays better this year and comes at a more cap-friendly price. The other will walk, likely bringing the Jets a 3rd round comp pick in return. Ellis will either sign a low level deal or leave; either way, I'd expect the Jets to draft his eventual replacement at DE in round 1 or 2 this year.

Don't underestimate what Harris and Mangold will cost you. You'll be looking at $7 mil/yr for each of those players. I wouldn't rule it out for some AFCE teams to make a run at Harris as well.

I also forgot to include Cromartie on that list - another 1 year acquisition. So the way you have to figure it between Cromartie, Edwards, and Holmes - if they suck, the Jets won't be that good this year, but if they're good they'll want to be paid BIG bucks. These are not guys who are going to take less money for the team.

My guess is you're looking at the following for the Jets in 2011 (assuming there's football:

Offense:
QB - Sanchez
RB - Greene, Rookie/low level FA, Woodhead
FB - Richardson
WR - Holmes/Edwards, Cotchery, 2010 rookie
TE - Keller
OL - Ferguson-Rookie-Mangold-Moore-Woody

Defense
DL - DeVito-Jenkins-2010Rookie/Ellis
LB - 2010Rookie (Jerry Hughes?)-Harris-Scott-Pace
DB - Revis-Leonhard-Poole-Cromartie

I'll take it - especially since it ignores the likelihood of Tannenbaum filling some of those other spots with established veterans the same way he's acquired guys like Jenkins, Edwards, Cromartie and Holmes - via trade of middle round picks

You probably won't be able to resign the main 2 guys plus Cro and either Braylon or Holmes. Don't forget you need to resign Brick and Revis after 2011 (Revis technically expires after 2012, but the way I understand it his salary will kick up by $12 mil regardless).

You're also assuming here that you're going to land a 2011 starter with 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks this year - no busts. Given Tannenbaum's track record, he's probably going to give up the 4th to move up in the 1st or 2nd round anyway. And even if you land 3 starters, there's still 0 depth on that team. Richardson is 38 years old as we speak. Jenkins and Woody are not that old, but their age and weight combination makes them good candidates to start breaking down.

Look at what the team has done in the UDFA market, though. Westermann, DeVito, Woodhead, Pitoitua, Kroul, Steinkuhler . . . the Jets' philosophy is that round 6 and 7 players are not vastly better than the top UDFA talent - and particularly not enough to make it worth retaining later round picks if those are the cost of a significant upgrade in talent at the front end of the draft (or, even better, in young vets). We'll see how that pans out.

Well that's quite a stable of young studs. You should be really proud. Might as well add Kevin O'Connell to that list.

 

[K-Ro 25]

Don't underestimate what Harris and Mangold will cost you. You'll be looking at $7 mil/yr for each of those players. I wouldn't rule it out for some AFCE teams to make a run at Harris as well.

I also forgot to include Cromartie on that list - another 1 year acquisition. So the way you have to figure it between Cromartie, Edwards, and Holmes - if they suck, the Jets won't be that good this year, but if they're good they'll want to be paid BIG bucks. These are not guys who are going to take less money for the team.

by cutting Faneca, Bryan Thomas and Woody next year the Jets save 13 mil plus on the books. Theres your money for Harris and mangold right there. Were going to have to replace those o-line men relatively soon anyway

You probably won't be able to resign the main 2 guys plus Cro and either Braylon or Holmes. Don't forget you need to resign Brick and Revis after 2011 (Revis technically expires after 2012, but the way I understand it his salary will kick up by $12 mil regardless).

so does cro suck or not? Everyone says he sucks, then good we dont have to worry about resigning him then

You're also assuming here that you're going to land a 2011 starter with 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks this year - no busts. Given Tannenbaum's track record, he's probably going to give up the 4th to move up in the 1st or 2nd round anyway. And even if you land 3 starters, there's still 0 depth on that team. Richardson is 38 years old as we speak. Jenkins and Woody are not that old, but their age and weight combination makes them good candidates to start breaking down.

im not trying to be a jerk but every always talks about teams with these boat load of draft picks and building picks etc. Well what have all those picks got the Pats as far as depth/ Really good F'ball players go. I will leave last years draft out b/c its too early to call anyone one way or the other, but many here mocked the Jets for essentially trading a draft for Harris and Revis. Meanwhile you guys picked 90% guys that year who were essentially training camp casualties. You need to build depth through the draft yes, but Tannenbaum is excellent at locating great talent and goin and grabbing them. Can't complain with the results as a Jets fan.

Well that's quite a stable of young studs. You should be really proud. Might as well add Kevin O'Connell to that list.

You mock him but a couple of the guys on the list like DeVito and Westerman are solid football players. I actually am a huge DeVito fan as a rotation DE. When Jenkins went down he played a huge role in our run D not going to crap and being formidable.

 

[bucky]

You can't say that anymore at least until we see the new CBA. Yes, under the last CBA, the salary cap didn't mean anything anymore. Under the new CBA (assuming there is one) we have no idea if that is the case.

Odds are the new CBA will either significantly slow the yearly growth of the cap if not see growth grind to a halt for the short term. If the new CBA continues the cap growth like it was that made the cap irrelevant, it will soon make small market teams like Jacksonville and Buffalo irrelevant too since they will go out of business. The reason why there is a looming work stoppage in 2011 is because what you said because the cap was spiraling out of control.

I know it is Felger's favorite cause to claim the cap is irrelevant and he has done a good job making people think that the Pats should spend willy-nilly even with uncertainty of what the new CBA brings, but any new CBA will be designed to slow the trend of the past five years. The only thing that is being debated right now is how much it will slow. The owners want it to grind to a halt or some even want it to contract while the players want to only give small concessions. They'll end up meeting somewhere in between.

The CBA is obviously the great unknown. The owners want a lot - 18 game season, reduction in player salaries, and restructuring of rookie cap. I'm not sure they'll be able to get all that, but I'm pretty sure the cap will come back. The owners might also have to give in on the concept of franchise and transition players (which won't do us any good unless we get Brady signed).

Anyway, my point is that the salary cap is only half the battle. Teams can afford to keep most of their best players if they fill in with young players. The Jets aren't doing that at all. Once Revis, Ferguson, Harris, Mangold, Keller, etc. get paid (Sanchez is already getting paid), they won't be able to afford signings like Woody, Faneca, Pace, Scott, Jennings, etc.

 

[bucky]

by cutting Faneca, Bryan Thomas and Woody next year the Jets save 13 mil plus on the books. Theres your money for Harris and mangold right there. Were going to have to replace those o-line men relatively soon anyway

Faneca and Woody have been extremely durable for the Jets. And Woody had been a lot better than I expected. They might have to go in 2011 and 2012, I agree. I just think it'll be a major drop-off.

so does cro suck or not? Everyone says he sucks, then good we dont have to worry about resigning him then

Don't know how he'll do, but given the Jets' depth at CB, he'll need to do pretty well. Either way, he's a 1 year rental.

im not trying to be a jerk but every always talks about teams with these boat load of draft picks and building picks etc. Well what have all those picks got the Pats as far as depth/ Really good F'ball players go. I will leave last years draft out b/c its too early to call anyone one way or the other, but many here mocked the Jets for essentially trading a draft for Harris and Revis. Meanwhile you guys picked 90% guys that year who were essentially training camp casualties. You need to build depth through the draft yes, but Tannenbaum is excellent at locating great talent and goin and grabbing them. Can't complain with the results as a Jets fan.

I actually agree with you about the Pats' drafts 2006-2008. 3 bad drafts and you see the results - a lot of major holes. I think the 2007 draft is an interesting case in point. Everyone says you have to count Moss and Welker in the class. Fine - we gave up a 4th for Moss, and a year later gave him big $$. It worked out real well. Except now it's 3 years later and Moss is starting to slow down. Combine that with the Chad Jackson fiasco and nothing in 2008, and WR becomes a need in 2010 and a major need in 2011. That's the difference between using your picks on young players and trading for established veterans.

You mock him but a couple of the guys on the list like DeVito and Westerman are solid football players. I actually am a huge DeVito fan as a rotation DE. When Jenkins went down he played a huge role in our run D not going to crap and being formidable.

I like DeVito too. He's a local guy. Westernam - it'll be interesting to see how long he lasts at 170 lbs. The rest of those guys haven't even seen the field.

 

[Metaphors]

Offense:
QB - Sanchez
RB - Greene, Rookie/low level FA, Woodhead
FB - Richardson
WR - Holmes/Edwards, Cotchery, 2010 rookie
TE - Keller
OL - Ferguson-Rookie-Mangold-Moore-Woody

Defense
DL - DeVito-Jenkins-2010Rookie/Ellis
LB - 2010Rookie (Jerry Hughes?)-Harris-Scott-Pace
DB - Revis-Leonhard-Poole-Cromartie

I'm not that high on the Jets long-term prospects and even I expect better than that. Guys that shouldn't be in that lineup:

Richardson - He will turn 40 in 2011. Time to move on. Past time actually.
Woody - He'll be 34 and given the number of years played (13th season) he will seem older
Jenkins - He is a 50-50 shot to make it through any season. Won't get better at age 32
Leonhard - Nice utility guy. Can do better.
Pool - He will be lucky to make it through this year.

If that is the lineup in 2011, I'll be thrilled. I expect the Jets to use their draft picks this year and next to build something better. So why am I down on the Jets? Their timing is off. I think Sanchez has the upside of Chad Pennington, but by the time he gets to that point the Jets will be replacing a good number of their bigs. During that transition the Jets will be counting on Sanchez to carry the team and he won't be able to do it. Patience is not a virtue in NY.

 

[patsfan-1982]

other then mangold, and david harris, none of the guys on your list will brake the bank and if they do they can be replaced.



they have a rookie QB if he becomes a star they will be a playoff team for a long time.



thats the NFL every team goes through this players go and come thats way the pats have been so good cause they find a way to replace guys and still be a playoff team the jets will be a good team for some time.

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

I hate to say it dude but if Sanchez develops it will be much more than a 1 year window.

 

[Ring 6]

other then mangold, and david harris, none of the guys on your list will brake the bank and if they do they can be replaced.



they have a rookie QB if he becomes a star they will be a playoff team for a long time.



thats the NFL every team goes through this players go and come thats way the pats have been so good cause they find a way to replace guys and still be a playoff team the jets will be a good team for some time.

They have to BECOME a good team first before they can be one for some time. 8-7 plus a gift is not the definition of a good team. In fact, Mangini was fired for going 9-7 without the gifted win.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I am not defending Sanchez or anything but there is a QB who in his first year threw 28 INTs and did nothing to help his lousy team win games?

Anyone remember that rookie by the name of Peyton Manning?

I think some here are judging this kid too quickly,mainly because he is a Jet and anyone on the Jets team sucks.

Now if he throws 20+ INTs again this year then maybe some of you have something here,but right now its all hope that he fails in this forum,I say lets see him with a year experience under his belt and some talented receivers at his disposal before we label him a bad Quarterback.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Jets have a 1 year window (oops, didn't mean to post in draft forum)

From what i've been reading here lately, it would seem that some Pats fans would like to do what the Jets are doing. No cap, no problem

In an uncapped league, what the Jets are doing is smart. The repercussions in a capped league are unknown, and in the future, and that team needs to sell PSLs now.

Also, to put it another way.... If the Patriots had acquired Cromartie and Holmes for as little as it's taken, this board would have melted down from all the praise the team would have been getting from many of the same people who are now belittling the Jets.

 

[Ring 6]

I am not defending Sanchez or anything but there is a QB who in his first year threw 28 INTs and did nothing to help his lousy team win games?

Anyone remember that rookie by the name of Peyton Manning?

I think some here are judging this kid too quickly,mainly because he is a Jet and anyone on the Jets team sucks.

Now if he throws 20+ INTs again this year then maybe some of you have something here,but right now its all hope that he fails in this forum,I say lets see him with a year experience under his belt and some talented receivers at his disposal before we label him a bad Quarterback.

I havent heard anyone say that Sanchez will suck because he is a Jet and all Jets suck. In fact, you are ironically, using that strawman as your basis for your argument.
If all it took was to find one example of a player who played bad and then played well to prove a player will be good, then everyone in the league is going to be a Hall of Famer.
At best your argument would say Sanchez has the possibility of improving because someone once threw more Ints (btw te comparison is a poor one because you only are counting Ints) not that its insane to say he wont.

Most of the people I have seen criticize Sanchez do so with reason, not because he is a Jet. If he were a Lion you wouldn't hear the criticism, not because he only sucks because he is a Jet, but because we don't care about Lions. How much, good or bad has been said on this board about Stafford?
So Jets (and Bills-sometimes-and Dolphins) will be discussed on this board, some negatively because they suck. That doesnt mean they wouldn't suck on another team but that we wouldn't be talking about them on this board because they wouldnt be relevant.

Back to your example:
Did you consider the amount of SUCCESS Manning had surrounding his 28 failures in his rookie season? You do realize that mostly what he did was remove the mistakes, not replace them with a ton of additional success right? He set a rookie passing yardage record. Sanchex has t not only eliminate the errors, but also find a lot more success before he would be a good QB.
Other than that, there are numerous differences that are leading to criticism of Sanchez beyond his Int total, that show remarkable difference between him and future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning. Some examples would include:
-Arm strength
-Accuracy
-Intelligence
-Ability to read a defense
-Demeanor and Attitude
-Work Ethic
-Success at the college level
-Ability to perform in the clutch
etc,etc

SO if you want to compare Sanchez to Manning focus on those areas. Otherwise, I can use your argument and say we should go get Joey Harrington because he didnt throw 28 Ints as a rookie, therefore he has a chance to be as good as Manning.

 

[Nonentity]

I am not defending Sanchez or anything but there is a QB who in his first year threw 28 INTs and did nothing to help his lousy team win games?

Anyone remember that rookie by the name of Peyton Manning?

I think some here are judging this kid too quickly,mainly because he is a Jet and anyone on the Jets team sucks.

Now if he throws 20+ INTs again this year then maybe some of you have something here,but right now its all hope that he fails in this forum,I say lets see him with a year experience under his belt and some talented receivers at his disposal before we label him a bad Quarterback.

We've all watched Peyton Manning for the last ten years. We know how good Peyton Manning is. I'm a fan of Peyton Manning. Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Jets have a 1 year window (oops, didn't mean to post in draft forum)

In an uncapped league, what the Jets are doing is smart. The repercussions in a capped league are unknown, and in the future, and that team needs to sell PSLs now.

Also, to put it another way.... If the Patriots had acquired Cromartie and Holmes for as little as it's taken, this board would have melted down from all the praise the team would have been getting from many of the same people who are now belittling the Jets.

Why do you insist on acting like you are so much better than everyone else that you can tell them what they would be thinking?
The arrogance is really annoying.
Think about that, you just posted that there is a group of people on this board that are so disingenuous that they are knowingly stating that the Jets made terrible moves by signing these players, but if the Patriots had done so they would be priasing them effusively.
Effectively you have said that you cannot be wrong because everyone else lies on purpose.
Is that really your intention?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

We've all watched Peyton Manning for the last ten years. We know how good Peyton Manning is. I'm a fan of Peyton Manning. Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning.

I am not saying he is Peyton Manning, I am saying don't expect 20 INTs every season from Mark..it was his first season and some are already all but calling him a bust.

 

[Deus Irae]

We've all watched Peyton Manning for the last ten years. We know how good Peyton Manning is. I'm a fan of Peyton Manning. Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning.

Mark Sanchez doesn't need to be Peyton Manning, though. He probably doesn't even need to be Eli Manning. Hell, if things break right for the Jets, Sanchez may only need to be Trent Dilfer.

 

[bucky]

I hate to say it dude but if Sanchez develops it will be much more than a 1 year window.

Did you just read the title of my thread, or the entire post? This has nothing to do with Sanchez. Even if he becomes Joe Montana, it's not going to be in 2010 or 2011. By the time Sanchez develops into a top echelon QB (if that ever happens) the Jets will be faced with rebuilding the entire middle tier of their roster - slots 12-30.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Jets have a 1 year window (oops, didn't mean to post in draft forum)

Why do you insist on acting like you are so much better than everyone else that you can tell them what they would be thinking?
The arrogance is really annoying.
Think about that, you just posted that there is a group of people on this board that are so disingenuous that they are knowingly stating that the Jets made terrible moves by signing these players, but if the Patriots had done so they would be priasing them effusively.
Effectively you have said that you cannot be wrong because everyone else lies on purpose.
Is that really your intention?

1.) I really don't care if it annoys you, because...

1.a) You're claiming arrogance about a post that has none in it, you're doing it because you're a homer busy bashing the Jets and I dared to point out something in contrast to your position, and you're a hypocrite on this 'arrogance' subject. Hell, it's you who's always jumping on my posts, rather than the other way around.

2.) I know precisely what I posted. Many of the same people who are crushing these moves would be doing cartwheels if those same players had been acquired by the Patriots.

3.) "Effectively", I said nothing of the sort. Your point of view inclines you towards your inference.