With all the bandwagon jumping going on with the Jets of late, I've done some research on the NyJetsCap.com page and a couple of other places and basically come to the conclusion that the Jets are operating in a 1 year window - 2 years tops.
There are 3 factors that contribute to this:
1) Free Agents after 2010:
8 starters and 2 more significant contributors will be free agents next year, including:
Mangold
David Harris
Braylon Edwards
Santonio Holmes
Leon Washington
David Harris
Shaun Ellis
Brad Smith
Eric Smith
Pool
Richardson
2) Team Salary Cap heading into 2010:
The Jets have committed $104 million for 30 players currently on the roster. While that doesn't seem high given the $127 million cap last year, the cap could potentially go down if the owners get their wish. More importantly, the Jets will be faced with resigning 2 pro bowl starters (Mangold and Harris), plus 2 even more significant FAs coming up the following year in Ferguson and Revis. Then there's the effect of point #3, which is coming up.
By contrast, the Patriots have about $68 mil committed to 31 players. Of course that doesn't include Tom Brady, but even if you give him a $17 mil salary, the Pats will still have $20 mil less committed with fewer starters to resign.
3) Abandoning the draft:
Over the past 3 years, the Jets have basically ignored the later part of the draft and this is carrying into 2010 and even 2011. This is resulting in a significant lack of depth and the inability to manage the cap by replacing older and more expensive players with younger and cheaper ones.
2009 - They only drafted 3 players, 2 of whom are starters and 1 on the PS.
2008 - Drafted only 6 players: 1 starter, 1 contributor, 1 gigantic bust, and a 3rd string QB.
2007 - Drafted only 4 players: 2 starters and 2 no longer with the team.
2010-11: Jets do not have a 3rd or 5th round pick in 2010 and have already traded 3rd and 7th rounders in 2011.
While the Jets have certainly hit on the early round selections they've made (Revis, Mangold, Harris, Greene, Keller, Ferguson), they've done nothing in the middle to later rounds. Many of these players are now due very large contract extensions, which will force the Jets' hand a little in dealing with the middle-tier veterans currently on their roster.
4) Depth and injuries
The other thing worth mentioning is how lucky the Jets were last year with injuries. Outside of the 2 bad ones to Jenkins and Washington, they had a remarkably injury-free season. The entire OL didn't miss a single game due to injury. Neither did any of their ILBs, TEs, or Safeties. So their lack of depth wasn't exposed in 2009. Injuries happen to everybody, so it's only a matter of time for the Jets. The older guys like Faneca, Woody, Pace and Ellis get, the less likely the are to last a full season.
There are 3 factors that contribute to this:
1) Free Agents after 2010:
8 starters and 2 more significant contributors will be free agents next year, including:
Mangold
David Harris
Braylon Edwards
Santonio Holmes
Leon Washington
David Harris
Shaun Ellis
Brad Smith
Eric Smith
Pool
Richardson
2) Team Salary Cap heading into 2010:
The Jets have committed $104 million for 30 players currently on the roster. While that doesn't seem high given the $127 million cap last year, the cap could potentially go down if the owners get their wish. More importantly, the Jets will be faced with resigning 2 pro bowl starters (Mangold and Harris), plus 2 even more significant FAs coming up the following year in Ferguson and Revis. Then there's the effect of point #3, which is coming up.
By contrast, the Patriots have about $68 mil committed to 31 players. Of course that doesn't include Tom Brady, but even if you give him a $17 mil salary, the Pats will still have $20 mil less committed with fewer starters to resign.
3) Abandoning the draft:
Over the past 3 years, the Jets have basically ignored the later part of the draft and this is carrying into 2010 and even 2011. This is resulting in a significant lack of depth and the inability to manage the cap by replacing older and more expensive players with younger and cheaper ones.
2009 - They only drafted 3 players, 2 of whom are starters and 1 on the PS.
2008 - Drafted only 6 players: 1 starter, 1 contributor, 1 gigantic bust, and a 3rd string QB.
2007 - Drafted only 4 players: 2 starters and 2 no longer with the team.
2010-11: Jets do not have a 3rd or 5th round pick in 2010 and have already traded 3rd and 7th rounders in 2011.
While the Jets have certainly hit on the early round selections they've made (Revis, Mangold, Harris, Greene, Keller, Ferguson), they've done nothing in the middle to later rounds. Many of these players are now due very large contract extensions, which will force the Jets' hand a little in dealing with the middle-tier veterans currently on their roster.
4) Depth and injuries
The other thing worth mentioning is how lucky the Jets were last year with injuries. Outside of the 2 bad ones to Jenkins and Washington, they had a remarkably injury-free season. The entire OL didn't miss a single game due to injury. Neither did any of their ILBs, TEs, or Safeties. So their lack of depth wasn't exposed in 2009. Injuries happen to everybody, so it's only a matter of time for the Jets. The older guys like Faneca, Woody, Pace and Ellis get, the less likely the are to last a full season.
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