What the status with Ghost?

[bucky]

First of all, Gost has been an All-Pro. Unless your going to claim that Belichick's been protecting him, that would make him 'elite' pretty much by definition.

Secondly, the Jets used a 2nd round pick on Mike Nugent a few years back.

Thirdly, teams saw just how important kickers are when they watched the playoffs this year. Feel free to ask Graham about that, as a matter of fact.

Some smart team drafting at the bottom of the second round would certainly be tempted to grab Gost. Then the Patriots could hope that their replacement was half as good as Gost, all because the team decided to save a few pennies.

I'm not arguing that he's a good kicker. I'm just saying that he's not head and shoulders above what his replacement might be.

Yes, he's been to a Pro Bowl. So has Shayne Graham, who's a FA. So has Rackers, who's also available. So has Nick Folk, who's out of the league. So that alone is not an indicator of him being "elite".

Gost has pretty good stats and pretty good Kickoff numbers, but look at his numbers - he was not a top 5 kicker this year in any of those categories.

Lastly, with regard to some "smart team drafting at the end of the second round", we could certainly take the Colts as an example. They could give up 63 for Ghost and give him a Vinatieri-type contract. Since I've already done this in another thread, I'll repost is here - what the Colts have done over the past several years with picks in the 55-70 range. A truly "smart" team, would not give up top $ AND a pick that typically results in a multi-year starter, for a kicker.


Not exactly an all-star cast, but a lot of these guys were multi-year starters:

Fili Moala - 56, Mike Pollack - 59, Tim Jennings - 62, Kelvin Hayden - 60, Ben Hartsock - 68, Gilbert Gardner - 69, Mike Doss - 58, Marcus Washington - 59.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not arguing that he's a good kicker. I'm just saying that he's not head and shoulders above what his replacement might be.

Yes, he's been to a Pro Bowl. So has Shayne Graham, who's a FA. So has Rackers, who's also available. So has Nick Folk, who's out of the league. So that alone is not an indicator of him being "elite".

Gost has pretty good stats and pretty good Kickoff numbers, but look at his numbers - he was not a top 5 kicker this year in any of those categories.

Lastly, with regard to some "smart team drafting at the end of the second round", we could certainly take the Colts as an example. They could give up 63 for Ghost and give him a Vinatieri-type contract. Since I've already done this in another thread, I'll repost is here - what the Colts have done over the past several years with picks in the 55-70 range. A truly "smart" team, would not give up top $ AND a pick that typically results in a multi-year starter, for a kicker.


Not exactly an all-star cast, but a lot of these guys were multi-year starters:

Fili Moala - 56, Mike Pollack - 59, Tim Jennings - 62, Kelvin Hayden - 60, Ben Hartsock - 68, Gilbert Gardner - 69, Mike Doss - 58, Marcus Washington - 59.

Pro Bowl is not All Pro. At age 25, Gost has already been an All Pro once.

Graham has never been an All-Pro, and Folk never achieved such status either. Rackers has been an All Pro, once, in 2005.

As for the "truly smart", you're just wrong. A "truly smart" team would make the move to lock up their kicking position for the next decade.

 

[mcmurtry86]

I'm not arguing that he's a good kicker. I'm just saying that he's not head and shoulders above what his replacement might be.

Yes, he's been to a Pro Bowl. So has Shayne Graham, who's a FA. So has Rackers, who's also available. So has Nick Folk, who's out of the league. So that alone is not an indicator of him being "elite".

Gost has pretty good stats and pretty good Kickoff numbers, but look at his numbers - he was not a top 5 kicker this year in any of those categories.

You realize that the drop from say, top 7-10 kicker to Mr. X middle of the pack kicker is pretty damn big in practical terms? Would you want Neil Rackers, he of multiple sub 75% seasons (in a perfect climate) kicking for your team in a big game? What about Shayne Graham who recently blew a playoff game with not one but two missed FG?

Over Gost's career, if you exclude his rookie season (exlcuded due to most rookie kickers struggling) he has a 87.4% FG PCT. That would have made him 8th last year. Note the guys in front of him:

Rackers - AZ - Dome/perfect climate
Mare - Seattle - Medium weather (rain, but no snow, not much wind usually)
Kaeding - SD - Perfect weather
Janikowski - Oak - Good weather
Dawson - Cleveland - bad weather
Carpenter - Mia - Mix of good and bad (plays a lot of road games in bad climates)

Honestly, other than Dawson, there isn't a guy on that list I would say is as likely to succeed in New England as Gostkowski. The other 2 good bad climate kickers Akers and Gould aren't available.

Really, if you want to replace Gostkowski, Reed is the only viable solution that wouldn't be noticeable downgrade and he is such a complete and utter drunken moron that I can't support the idea.

Why do I feel like a lot of the "Replace Gost" crowd not only hasn't had to suffer through a bad kicker, but doesn't bother to look at climate when evaluating kickers? If Gost played in a dome, he'd be top 5 in the league more years than not.

 

[bucky]

Pro Bowl is not All Pro. At age 25, Gost has already been an All Pro once.

Graham has never been an All-Pro, and Folk never achieved such status either. Rackers has been an All Pro, once, in 2005.

As for the "truly smart", you're just wrong. A "truly smart" team would make the move to lock up their kicking position for the next decade.

Kickers are too inconsistent to lock up for a "decade". There are no such contracts anyway. Based on your logic, the Raiders and Jets are "truly smart" because the Jets spent a #2 on a kicker and the Raiders just locked up Janickowski. I'm not arguing against Gost here at all. I guess my view of a smart team is different from yours. I don't believe there is a need to overpay kickers, or give up 2nd round picks for them. So if someone wanted to give the Pats a 2nd rounder for Ghost during the offseason, that to me is more of a no-brainer than trading Seymour for a 1st round pick 1 week before the season starts.

 

[bucky]

You realize that the drop from say, top 7-10 kicker to Mr. X middle of the pack kicker is pretty damn big in practical terms? Would you want Neil Rackers, he of multiple sub 75% seasons (in a perfect climate) kicking for your team in a big game? What about Shayne Graham who recently blew a playoff game with not one but two missed FG?

Over Gost's career, if you exclude his rookie season (exlcuded due to most rookie kickers struggling) he has a 87.4% FG PCT. That would have made him 8th last year. Note the guys in front of him:

Rackers - AZ - Dome/perfect climate
Mare - Seattle - Medium weather (rain, but no snow, not much wind usually)
Kaeding - SD - Perfect weather
Janikowski - Oak - Good weather
Dawson - Cleveland - bad weather
Carpenter - Mia - Mix of good and bad (plays a lot of road games in bad climates)

Honestly, other than Dawson, there isn't a guy on that list I would say is as likely to succeed in New England as Gostkowski. The other 2 good bad climate kickers Akers and Gould aren't available.

Really, if you want to replace Gostkowski, Reed is the only viable solution that wouldn't be noticeable downgrade and he is such a complete and utter drunken moron that I can't support the idea.

Why do I feel like a lot of the "Replace Gost" crowd not only hasn't had to suffer through a bad kicker, but doesn't bother to look at climate when evaluating kickers? If Gost played in a dome, he'd be top 5 in the league more years than not.

I'm not against Gost. All I'm saying is that a second round tender would secure him for the year. And if someone wants to give up a 2nd round pick for him, I would take the deal. People here were going crazy when Vinatieri left. Yet we managed to replace him just fine. As I said, there are rookies who are worth a look and there are free agents - Reed, Graham, and Feeley at least. Would they be a downgrade? Probably a little bit. But not enough to give up a 2nd round pick for.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Kickers are too inconsistent to lock up for a "decade". There are no such contracts anyway. Based on your logic, the Raiders and Jets are "truly smart" because the Jets spent a #2 on a kicker and the Raiders just locked up Janickowski. I'm not arguing against Gost here at all. I guess my view of a smart team is different from yours. I don't believe there is a need to overpay kickers, or give up 2nd round picks for them. So if someone wanted to give the Pats a 2nd rounder for Ghost during the offseason, that to me is more of a no-brainer than trading Seymour for a 1st round pick 1 week before the season starts.

To sum up your position: You'd prefer a mediocre kicker and the 2nd round pick to a very good, proven kicker without that pick. If it's a dollars to dollars issue, the 2nd rounder and FA replacement (assuming you want a guy like Rackers, Reed or Graham) will cost as much as Gosktowski

Best case scenario, the 2nd rounder turns into a good player at a "more valuable" position and the kicker doesn't lose any games.

Worst case scenario, you end up with Chad Jackson and "bad year" Rackers missing 3 out every 10 kicks (in a good climate, I shudder to think how he'd do in New England).

There's a reason most bad climate teams don't change kickers (Akers, Reed, Graham, Dawson, Vinatieri for a decade then Gostowski) once they find one who is good. It's very difficult to kick well in snow, heavy wind and freezing cold temperatures. To assume that a guy like Rackers could step in and succeed is pure fantasy. Especially given his epic struggles every other year or so.

The only reason a guy like Graham is available is because of his failures in the playoffs, and Reed is (probably) on the outs due to being a locker room distraction (the local paper headline was "Reed's latest incident embarrassment to Steelers).

As for the consistency issue, most elite kickers have one bad year every 4-5 which is probably more of an issue with sample size than "losing it" and then "re-finding it":

Exluding each kicker's rookie years (where they almost always struggled, except Reed)

Dawson: 2 out of 10 years below 80%
Graham: 0 out of 7 years below 80%
Vinatieri: 6 out of 14 years below 80% including 4 out of 10 below 80% in New England
Akers: 3 out of 11 below 80% (strangely they were all consecutive 2005-2007)
Gould: 0 out of 4 below 80%
Reed: 2 out of 7 below 80%
Rackers: 6 out of 10 below 80%
Lindell: 4 out of 10 below 80% (only 1 out of his last 6 though)
Janikowski: 4 out of 9 below 80%

As a point of reference, the great Morten Andersen had 10 seasons out of 24 below 80% although only 3 in of his last 15 years.

Vinatieri was in New England for a decade and in terms of FG% was significantly worse than Gostkowski most years (and worse on kickoffs). Yet not many people complained that he was kept around for so long, at a fairly high price by the end.

Of course many of those same people probably weren't fans at the time when Pats fans were calling for Vinatieri to be cut in favor of then-practice squad kicker Phil Dawson.

 

[Deus Irae]

Kickers are too inconsistent to lock up for a "decade". There are no such contracts anyway. Based on your logic, the Raiders and Jets are "truly smart" because the Jets spent a #2 on a kicker and the Raiders just locked up Janickowski. I'm not arguing against Gost here at all. I guess my view of a smart team is different from yours. I don't believe there is a need to overpay kickers, or give up 2nd round picks for them. So if someone wanted to give the Pats a 2nd rounder for Ghost during the offseason, that to me is more of a no-brainer than trading Seymour for a 1st round pick 1 week before the season starts.

1.) It's a lot easier to keep a player than to get him from another team. You don't sign a 10 year contract, but you sign a multi-year contract which later allows you to use franchise tags and the like, as well as getting first/only crack at contract negotiations.

2.) You made an erroneous claim about the Raiders, and I noted the Jets in response.

3.) Yes, it's been clear from a lot of your posts that our definitions of a smart team are different. I think a smart team needs to be smart. You think they should dump All-Pros for draft picks.

 

[bucky]

1.) It's a lot easier to keep a player than to get him from another team. You don't sign a 10 year contract, but you sign a multi-year contract which later allows you to use franchise tags and the like, as well as getting first/only crack at contract negotiations.

2.) You made an erroneous claim about the Raiders, and I noted the Jets in response.

3.) Yes, it's been clear from a lot of your posts that our definitions of a smart team are different. I think a smart team needs to be smart. You think they should dump All-Pros for draft picks.

What erroneous claim are you talking about? The Raiders are consistently the worst managed team in the NFL. They drafted Janickowski in the 1st round and now signed him to a hugely overpriced contract. Then, as you pointed out, the Jets made a mistake by using a 2nd round pick on a kicker.

Ghost was an all-pro a year ago. He was 16th in the league this year in FG%. He is not the kind of all-pro that Richard Seymour was. He's a kicker.

 

[bucky]

To sum up your position: You'd prefer a mediocre kicker and the 2nd round pick to a very good, proven kicker without that pick. If it's a dollars to dollars issue, the 2nd rounder and FA replacement (assuming you want a guy like Rackers, Reed or Graham) will cost as much as Gosktowski

Best case scenario, the 2nd rounder turns into a good player at a "more valuable" position and the kicker doesn't lose any games.

Worst case scenario, you end up with Chad Jackson and "bad year" Rackers missing 3 out every 10 kicks (in a good climate, I shudder to think how he'd do in New England).

There's a reason most bad climate teams don't change kickers (Akers, Reed, Graham, Dawson, Vinatieri for a decade then Gostowski) once they find one who is good. It's very difficult to kick well in snow, heavy wind and freezing cold temperatures. To assume that a guy like Rackers could step in and succeed is pure fantasy. Especially given his epic struggles every other year or so.

The only reason a guy like Graham is available is because of his failures in the playoffs, and Reed is (probably) on the outs due to being a locker room distraction (the local paper headline was "Reed's latest incident embarrassment to Steelers).

As for the consistency issue, most elite kickers have one bad year every 4-5 which is probably more of an issue with sample size than "losing it" and then "re-finding it":

Exluding each kicker's rookie years (where they almost always struggled, except Reed)

Dawson: 2 out of 10 years below 80%
Graham: 0 out of 7 years below 80%
Vinatieri: 6 out of 14 years below 80% including 4 out of 10 below 80% in New England
Akers: 3 out of 11 below 80% (strangely they were all consecutive 2005-2007)
Gould: 0 out of 4 below 80%
Reed: 2 out of 7 below 80%
Rackers: 6 out of 10 below 80%
Lindell: 4 out of 10 below 80% (only 1 out of his last 6 though)
Janikowski: 4 out of 9 below 80%

As a point of reference, the great Morten Andersen had 10 seasons out of 24 below 80% although only 3 in of his last 15 years.

Vinatieri was in New England for a decade and in terms of FG% was significantly worse than Gostkowski most years (and worse on kickoffs). Yet not many people complained that he was kept around for so long, at a fairly high price by the end.

Of course many of those same people probably weren't fans at the time when Pats fans were calling for Vinatieri to be cut in favor of then-practice squad kicker Phil Dawson.

I appreciated the research. And my position is not accurately summed up in your post. First of all, Gostkowski was not considered a proved kicker when he came in here. You have already pointed out about 8-10 kickers who are comparable to Gost. I could also point out guys like Bironas, Kaeding, Tynes, Lindell as guys who are in the neighborhood with Gost. Are they better? Some might be, some might not. It varies from year to year. Which is exactly my point - a good kicker can be found.

With regard to the 2nd round pick, I think it's easy to point out the Chad Jackson failure, but the 2nd round pick is actually quite valuable. The Pats have acquired Welker and Dillon in exchange for 2nd round picks. Looking at their record in the late 2nd round, the Pats have had 2 busts (Hill and Wheatley) and 2 great picks (Branch and Volmer). I would take Feeley, a 6th round kicker, and a 50% chance at the next Branch or Volmer over Gost.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I appreciated the research. And my position is not accurately summed up in your post. First of all, Gostkowski was not considered a proved kicker when he came in here. You have already pointed out about 8-10 kickers who are comparable to Gost. I could also point out guys like Bironas, Kaeding, Tynes, Lindell as guys who are in the neighborhood with Gost. Are they better? Some might be, some might not. It varies from year to year. Which is exactly my point - a good kicker can be found.

With regard to the 2nd round pick, I think it's easy to point out the Chad Jackson failure, but the 2nd round pick is actually quite valuable. The Pats have acquired Welker and Dillon in exchange for 2nd round picks. Looking at their record in the late 2nd round, the Pats have had 2 busts (Hill and Wheatley) and 2 great picks (Branch and Volmer). I would take Feeley, a 6th round kicker, and a 50% chance at the next Branch or Volmer over Gost.

I agree. Wheatley still has time to prove himself and Hill didn't bust.

 

[mcmurtry86]

3.) Yes, it's been clear from a lot of your posts that our definitions of a smart team are different. I think a smart team needs to be smart. You think they should dump All-Pros for draft picks.

Ah yes, the thought of a 2nd round pick warms my heart. It would more than make up for a Shayne Graham shank or 2 in the playoffs. Maybe a few years of Neil Rackers missing 30% of his kicks as well.

After all, having a good (and proven cold weather) kicker isn't as important as the all mighty 2nd round pick!

All of this is moot I suspect, as Belichick won't let Gost go unless there is some incredibly compelling reason to do so. You find a good kicker, you hold on to him.

He is not the kind of all-pro that Richard Seymour was. He's a kicker.

There's one kind of All-Pro.....the All-Pro kind. It means you're the very, very best at what you do and there is little reason to think Gostkowski isn't amongst the 5-10 best in the game and capable of having a few more elite years like 2008. Look at his average from 2007-2009. It's pretty damn good, and even better when taking weather factors into account.

The fact of the matter is, most 2nd rounders aren't star players and most aren't even "pretty good" players. Many are serviceable starters and many are backups and washouts. For every Vollmer or Deion Branch, there is a Chad Jackson, Marquise Hill or Bethel Johnson. Every so often you get an Adrian Klemm or Eugene Wilson. To me, that extra lottery ticket isn't worth the risk of having a bad kicker.

It's strange that any Patriot fan given the Super Bowl run or any NFL fan given the past season could argue for downgrading their team's kicker spot. If anything, those two points of reference should indicate MORE willingness to keep Gostkowski, not less.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Looking at their record in the late 2nd round, the Pats have had 2 busts (Hill and Wheatley) and 2 great picks (Branch and Volmer). I would take Feeley, a 6th round kicker, and a 50% chance at the next Branch or Volmer over Gost.

Why are you using so little data to draw your conclusion?

2nd round picks under Belichick:

Adrian Klemm
Matt Light
Deion Branch
Eugene Wilson
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Chad Jackson
Terrence Wheatley
Pat Chung
Ron Brace
Darius Butler
Sebastian Vollmer

Light, Branch and Vollmer were obvious successes and they got a few useful seasons from Wilson, it's too early to comment much on Chung, Brace or Butler but the rest of that list is pretty ugly.

Now, look at 2nd round picks in general. There absolutely is NOT a 50% success rate league-wide.

 

[Prufrock]

There's one kind of All-Pro.....the All-Pro kind. It means you're the very, very best at what you do and there is little reason to think Gostkowski isn't amongst the 5-10 best in the game and capable of having a few more elite years like 2008. Look at his average from 2007-2009. It's pretty damn good, and even better when taking weather factors into account.

Agreed, a kicker my not be the most important position on the field but it is definitely a part of the football puzzle. Letting a piece of that puzzle go for a chance at some marginal gain is foolish. I know this team likes to avoid getting sentimental with it's players, but there is something to be said for keeping some of the core players around even if it isn't the absolute best decision on paper.

 

[bucky]

Ah yes, the thought of a 2nd round pick warms my heart. It would more than make up for a Shayne Graham shank or 2 in the playoffs. Maybe a few years of Neil Rackers missing 30% of his kicks as well.

After all, having a good (and proven cold weather) kicker isn't as important as the all mighty 2nd round pick!

All of this is moot I suspect, as Belichick won't let Gost go unless there is some incredibly compelling reason to do so. You find a good kicker, you hold on to him.



There's one kind of All-Pro.....the All-Pro kind. It means you're the very, very best at what you do and there is little reason to think Gostkowski isn't amongst the 5-10 best in the game and capable of having a few more elite years like 2008. Look at his average from 2007-2009. It's pretty damn good, and even better when taking weather factors into account.

The fact of the matter is, most 2nd rounders aren't star players and most aren't even "pretty good" players. Many are serviceable starters and many are backups and washouts. For every Vollmer or Deion Branch, there is a Chad Jackson, Marquise Hill or Bethel Johnson. Every so often you get an Adrian Klemm or Eugene Wilson. To me, that extra lottery ticket isn't worth the risk of having a bad kicker.

It's strange that any Patriot fan given the Super Bowl run or any NFL fan given the past season could argue for downgrading their team's kicker spot. If anything, those two points of reference should indicate MORE willingness to keep Gostkowski, not less.

I suppose we've gone down this path as far as we can. Of course we don't know how much money Gost wants. If he wants Janickowski money, he'll be gone. If he want $2 mil/year, he'll probably be resigned - which I'm all for.

I still believe that his 1-time all-pro selection doesn't make him one of the 2-3 best kickers in the NFL for the next 5 years. And considering he's a kicker, I would take the pick for him. You can drum up some examples of Graham shanking kicks, but if you look, there is not correlation between teams winning superbowls and kickers being all-pros. This year's final 4 teams:

Indy and Minn - retread kicker, Saints - 2nd year kicker who was undrafted, Jets - Feeley, who you don't want.

 

[bucky]

Why are you using so little data to draw your conclusion?

2nd round picks under Belichick:

Adrian Klemm
Matt Light
Deion Branch
Eugene Wilson
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Chad Jackson
Terrence Wheatley
Pat Chung
Ron Brace
Darius Butler
Sebastian Vollmer

Light, Branch and Vollmer were obvious successes and they got a few useful seasons from Wilson, it's too early to comment much on Chung, Brace or Butler but the rest of that list is pretty ugly.

Now, look at 2nd round picks in general. There absolutely is NOT a 50% success rate league-wide.

I used the data because I'm assuming the Pats would get a LATE 2nd round pick. But if you want to look at all the picks, I would argue that Eugene Wilson was more important to the 03-04 Superbowls than AV. Klemm was a starter for a couple of years. Bethel actually made some key plays on ST and a huge TD grab in the playoffs vs. Tenn. But overall, I agree he was a disappointment. They also traded picks for Welker and Dillon.

Also, earlier in the thread I posted an example of the Colts' late 2nd early 3rd rounders - there are a lot of multi-year starters on that list.

 

[mcmurtry86]

You can drum up some examples of Graham shanking kicks, but if you look, there is not correlation between teams winning superbowls and kickers being all-pros. This year's final 4 teams:

There's a very strong correlation between teams not getting to or winning the Super Bowl because of having bad or unreliable kickers. Look at Kaeding or Graham this year. What about Nugent a few years back? What about Dallas this year? How many more games do they win with something resembling a good kicker?

My question, which you have not really addressed, is:

In a close game in the playoffs in bad weather, who do you want kicking for you: Gostkowski or Joe Rookie? What about Gostkowski or Neil Rackers? If you want Jeff Reed, he won't come much cheaper than Gostkowski and he's a locker room problem. If you want Graham, he will come a little cheaper only because of his epic fail in the playoffs. If you want Rackers, you have a guy who has failed repeatedly and has never had success in the cold weather.

It's a needless risk to take on a position where one guy can literally win or lose a game for you. All for a "late" 2nd round pick

If someone was willing to give us a late 2nd for him, I would gladly take it.

Let's look at "late 2nd round picks" from some recent drafts. I'll use the last 12 picks in each round as the cutoff:

2005:

Khalif Barnes
Dan Cody
Eric Shelton
Roscoe Parrish
Darrent Williams
Justin Miller
Terrence Murphy
Jonathan Babineaux
Kelvin Hayden
Vincent Jackson
Bryant McFadden
Matt McCoy
Adam Terry

2006:

Greg Jennings
Anthony Fasano
Bernard Pollard
Andrew Whitworth
Chris Chester
Devin Hester
Richard Marshall
Jeremy Trueblood
Maurice Jones-Drew
Tony Scheffler
Tim Jennings
Darryl Tapp
Tarvaris Jackson

2007:

Brian Leonard
Eric Wright
Turk McBride
Josh Wilson
Tim Crowder
Victor Abiamiri
Ikaika Alama-Francis
Ryan Kalil
Samson Satele
Gerald Alexander
Dan Bazuin
Brandon Jackson
Sabby Piscitelli

2008:

Malcolm Kelly
Quentin Groves
Limas Sweed
Jason Jones
Ray Rice
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Dexter Jackson
Mike Pollak
Patrick Lee
Martellus Bennett
Terrence Wheatley
Terrell Thomas

That's 48 players over 4 years, and maybe 10 of them are quality starters and you could probably quibble over another 5-7 of them.

I wouldn't take the downgrade from Gostkowski to a rookie for Mike Pollak or Dan Bauzin or Bernard Pollard or Matt McCoy - which is the type of player that is far more prevalent in the "late 2nd" than the Jones-Drew's of the world.

 

[bucky]

There's a very strong correlation between teams not getting to or winning the Super Bowl because of having bad or unreliable kickers. Look at Kaeding or Graham this year. What about Nugent a few years back? What about Dallas this year? How many more games do they win with something resembling a good kicker?

My question, which you have not really addressed, is:

In a close game in the playoffs in bad weather, who do you want kicking for you: Gostkowski or Joe Rookie? What about Gostkowski or Neil Rackers? If you want Jeff Reed, he won't come much cheaper than Gostkowski and he's a locker room problem. If you want Graham, he will come a little cheaper only because of his epic fail in the playoffs. If you want Rackers, you have a guy who has failed repeatedly and has never had success in the cold weather.

It's a needless risk to take on a position where one guy can literally win or lose a game for you. All for a "late" 2nd round pick



Let's look at "late 2nd round picks" from some recent drafts. I'll use the last 12 picks in each round as the cutoff:

2005:

Khalif Barnes
Dan Cody
Eric Shelton
Roscoe Parrish
Darrent Williams
Justin Miller
Terrence Murphy
Jonathan Babineaux
Kelvin Hayden
Vincent Jackson
Bryant McFadden
Matt McCoy
Adam Terry

2006:

Greg Jennings
Anthony Fasano
Bernard Pollard
Andrew Whitworth
Chris Chester
Devin Hester
Richard Marshall
Jeremy Trueblood
Maurice Jones-Drew
Tony Scheffler
Tim Jennings
Darryl Tapp
Tarvaris Jackson

2007:

Brian Leonard
Eric Wright
Turk McBride
Josh Wilson
Tim Crowder
Victor Abiamiri
Ikaika Alama-Francis
Ryan Kalil
Samson Satele
Gerald Alexander
Dan Bazuin
Brandon Jackson
Sabby Piscitelli

2008:

Malcolm Kelly
Quentin Groves
Limas Sweed
Jason Jones
Ray Rice
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Dexter Jackson
Mike Pollak
Patrick Lee
Martellus Bennett
Terrence Wheatley
Terrell Thomas

That's 48 players over 4 years, and maybe 10 of them are quality starters and you could probably quibble over another 5-7 of them.

I wouldn't take the downgrade from Gostkowski to a rookie for Mike Pollak or Dan Bauzin or Bernard Pollard or Matt McCoy - which is the type of player that is far more prevalent in the "late 2nd" than the Jones-Drew's of the world.

Lots of things here...

1) These are all the players drafted, but we're talking abut the Patriots drafting players - which is not quite the same thing. I'd put the chances at 50% that they can get a guy like Branch or Vollmer. Also, 2010 is considered a deep draft. 2007 - one of the 3 years you used as an example - was considered a particularly bad one.

2) I haven't heard about Jeff Reed being a "locker room problem". But even if he is, it hasn't prevented the Steelers from winning.

3) It's not only about the money with these guys, but the pick too. I'd gladly give Gost a fair contract. But if someone comes and offers up a 2nd round pick, I'd take it just like BB did for Seymour. I would actually hesitate about it less that the Seymour deal.

4) I agree weather consideration is important. Gost has been good, but not infallible. BB consistently hesitates to use him on 50+ yard field goals, or other situations that might be considered challenging.. There weren't really any bad weather games this year. He was 1-2 in the Titans game. He was 4-4 in the AZ game last year - all inside the 40. And he was 2-3 in the wind in Buffalo, missing a 26 yarder. So overall good, but not exactly AV type of kicking in bad weather.

5) You gave examples of Kaeding and Graham missing kicks this year, but those guys have actually been pretty good kickers. Graham had a bad year this year, but has been a good kicker since he joined Cincy. Which brings me to the point that you just never know when a kicker will have some mental or technique issues and will go south.

 

[bucky]

My question, which you have not really addressed, is:

In a close game in the playoffs in bad weather, who do you want kicking for you: Gostkowski or Joe Rookie? What about Gostkowski or Neil Rackers?

Just looked it up - Gostkowski is 1 for 3 in his career in the postseason. Doesn't exactly make him a proven postseason FG kicker.

Edit: Sorry - I didn't look up his 2006 stats for some reason, when he was 8-8. So that puts him at 9 for 11, which is much better. Ironically though, he's 8-8 as a rookie and 1-3 since then. Go figure.

 

[bucky]

Just looked it up - Gostkowski is 1 for 3 in his career in the postseason. Doesn't exactly make him a proven postseason FG kicker.

Just to follow up on that since I was curious. If you're going to use postseason FG% as criteria - which I think you should. Make your own conclusions:

Gostkowski - 9 for 11
Jeff Reed - 16 for 18, with the 2 misses coming as a rookie.
Jay Feely - 11 for 16
Rackers - 6 for 10
Shayne Graham - 1 for 3
Vinatieri - 36 for 42.
Kaeding - 8 for 15
Janikowski - 14 for 16 (for all the crap he gets).

 

[Disco Volante]

A kicker is only as good as he is in the playoffs, where I feel is the first place you have to look to truly judge a kicker's overall value.

All-Pro Nate Keading was by the far the best regular season kicker last season and is in fact the most accurate kicker in NFL history, statistically.

Would any of you want him kicking for the Patriots in the playoffs?

That being said, Gost earned his acclaim during the 2006 post-season where he went a perfect 8/8 with a very important and impressive 50 yarder against SD.