2009 Buffalo @ NE, Game 1 Breakdown

[SHOWTIME15]

The no-huddle was gassing him which leads me to think that was part of the strategy.

i was wondering when Brace was going to play. i think the pats will be prepared for the no huddle this week.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Do you think the lack of preseason playing time contributed to the few misfires they had during the game? There was another breakdown in the 4th quarter when Brady did a quick lateral to Welker, but he was not anticipating so Brady threw at his feet to kill the play.

That's what I love about Brady, his split-second smart decision-making. Cassel would have never done that.

Brady was out of sync with a number of his recievers, there was a reason he threw more to his regulars Moss, Welker, Faulk, and Watson - he'll get those four worked back into the groove then Baker and Galloway and Maroney will be brought up to speed.

Brady has eight seasons, plus he started in college. Cassel has one season starting between college and the NFL, he did just fine in year one and KC has an excellent QB.

 

[Synovia]

Brady was out of sync with a number of his recievers, there was a reason he threw more to his regulars Moss, Welker, Faulk, and Watson -.

Even with those guys, there were a ton of passes in the first half that seemed like they were just out of reach. A little shakey, but frankly, I expected that.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Even with those guys, there were a ton of passes in the first half that seemed like they were just out of reach. A little shakey, but frankly, I expected that.

Which is why he was trying to get it going with his old guard again before he tried working the newbies into the offense. He surprised me with the one toss to Baker.

 

[Patspsycho]

Jumping the gun here a little because Box hasn't gotten to the end of the game, but this is a good analysis of the Pats last two drives:

The Patriots’ comeback play and Belichick on passing | Smart Football

 

[Patspsycho]

Also replay tonight on NFLN 9:30pm EST

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

6:22 2nd Qtr
KO: Stephen "Meat" Gostkowski puts the ball in the back of the end zone and McKelvin takes a knee.

1st and 10 Buf 20: Buf 2-wide, 2 TE R
-- NE: 6-1, CBs soft (looks like a Cover-3 as Meriweather strolls down into the box just before the snap. L-R Warren - Wilfork - Wright - Green; Thomas - Guyton - Ninkovich; Butler - Bodden; Meriweather - Sanders.
-- Edwards audibles, but there is no apparent NE reaction.
-- Inside zone to the right side using the 1x1 TE to "wham" back inside; Wilfork and Wright just eat blockers allowing Warren and Green to collapse in and meet the RB at the LOS with Meriweather and Ninkovich flying in for moral support. 1 yd.

2nd and 9: Buf 2-wide, 2 TE R
-- NE: 6-1 under, CBs soft-man.
-- Buffalo had two receivers running slides into the R flat, so a foul-up on their part, but Guyton was slow to pick them up and Edwards hit his 5th step and dumped off underneath at 3 Mississippi, Jackson scooted for a first down. 16 yds.

1st and 10 Buf 37: Buf 2-wide, 2 TE R
-- NE: 6-1, CBs soft, Butler creeps up just before Edwards audibles, then he drops back and Sanders comes up playing run.
-- Two step drop and quick out to Lee Evans who is just as quickly sandwiched by Bodden and Ninkovich who reacted instantly to limit the damage. 3 yds.

2nd and 7: Buf 2-wide, 2 TE R
-- 6-1 under, CBs soft.
-- Toss sweep right for 10 yds.
-- Penalty, illegal formation, -5yds

2nd and 12 Buf 35: Buf 2-wide, 2 TE L
-- NE: 6-1 over, Bodden in press-man
-- Sanders comes down in the box just before the snap.
-- Pass, Buf floods the L side, but Bodden shuts down Evans, Guyton was on the in-line TE releasing inside, and Sanders was camped over the 1x1 TE's slide and under Evans. Edwards took the underneath TE standing 1 yd upfield at the sideline and he was immediately wrapped up by Sanders and Ninkovich. 2 yds.

3rd and 10: Buf 3-wide, 2 R, 2 RB T-form, shotgun
-- NE: 4-2 Nickel-Man, L-R Burgess, Wilfork, Green, TBC; Thomas - Guyton; Butler - Springs - Bodden; Meriweather - Sanders
-- 5-man rush with Thomas blitzing up the middle, Edwards finds Evans on a dig and Bodden times his hit as the ball arrives. Incomplete.

4th and 10: Punt. Moorman 39 yds to NE 24.
-- Welker returns it up the right sideline for 11 yds before being slung down oob (no penalty, borderline roughness - like to see that leeway for NE players too).
-- Bodden/Chung were the blockers on the near side, their Gunner didn't get within 15 yds of Welker. It looks like Butler, but it could be Springs on the far side, he kept his man 10 yds away from Welker - just an excellent job by the Gunner blockers.

3:38 2nd Qtr
1st and 10 NE 35: NE Damned crappy directing again :enranged: 3-wide, TE R
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Play action screen L, Light fell down working against Schobel, which in and of itself shouldn't have been a big issue on a screen, but Schobel read the screen and Brady didn't loft the ball high enough as Schobel skies and tips it to himself for the interception. Light and Kaczur are unable to run him down, Morris catches him before the goal line, but in spinning him down Schobel landed on Morris so he wasn't down when the ball crossed the plane of the goal. TD Buffalo.
-- I realize there are a number of people ranting against Light for this play - you are wrong. This was an exceptional play by an exceptional football player whom I covet and have coveted for NE. It's just that simple, great player, great play.

Extra Point: Lindell converts.
3:29 2nd Qtr NE 7 Buf 14

 

[Patspsycho]

watching replay now.. Buffalo seems to be identifying our screen plays well. They were pretty much on top of most of them..

Wonder what is giving that play away?

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Great stuff again, Box. Quick football-for-dummies question (I think I've worked out the rest of the lingo):

How does a 6-1 under formation look? Is the Will just pushed up on the T, essentially overloading the weak side of the line and the Sam squeezed into the big space between the NT and DE?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

3:29 2nd Qtr
KO: Faulk from the NE 7, 23 yd return.
-- After the opening KO, Buffalo kicked away from Maroney the rest of the night.
-- Wendell and Watson were the wedge this time. They did a fair job, Watson's initial block allowed Faulk to scoot past, but Watson's man (Buffalo's top ST's Ace LB Jon Corto #57 [in case BB steals him some day]) ran him down from behind.
-- Maroney was leading up the sideline, but Faulk turned on his PR mode and went 'heh diddle diddle, straight up the middle,' which given the speed difference between himself and Maroney was a reasonable choice.
-- Good blocks: Wendell, Aiken, McGowan, Baker, Alexander, Chung & TBC (those two were literally sitting on #38 RB Corey McIntyre) were those I could see on camera or read their numbers. One of the LBs Woods or Ninkovich, made a nice block - I couldn't read a number, but both TEs who played where accounted for and this guy was in that size range.

3:25 2nd Qtr
1st and 10 NE 30: NE: 4-wide, 3 R, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Buf showing blitz from both LBs and SS. 6-man rush with both LBs, Maroney's man slipped off the block and hit Brady as he threw, but he connected with Welker along the right sideline, who juked his defender to gain the first down. 14 yds.

1st and 10 NE 44: NE 2-wide L, 2-TE R
-- Buf: 4-3
-- Inside zone L, it was designed for a cutback since Kaczur pulled and led through the middle stoning the MLB as Koppen released off a combo block to block the WLB outside. Baker and Neal had the DL on that side stacked and screened, and Watson came around and drove the SLB L to give Maroney a nice lane up the middle where the SS made the tackle. 7 yds.

2:00 minute warning

2nd and 3 Buf 49: NE 4-wide 2x2, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel, press-man, LBs showing blitz.
-- 4-man rush, but Buf ran a twist stunt on the Def-R where Mankins was beaten outside by the DT to pressure Brady and he threw the ball away oob. Incomplete.

3rd and 3: NE 4-wide, 2x2, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel, press-man
-- 4-man rush, nice pocket, Watson beat his man and Tommy hit him for a first down. 14 yds.

1st and 10 Buf 35: NE 4-wide, 2x2, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Buffalo showed blitz and spooked Koppen.
-- Penalty, snap infraction, -5 yds.

1st and 15 Buf 40: NE 4-wide, 2x2, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel, showing blitz LBs and SS.
-- Buffalo starts 6, but the RLB was chipped by Faulk and trailed him in coverage. Watson cleared out the middle for Moss coming underneath for a quick throw from 3 steps back, Moss juked his man and took off to the sideline for 31 yds, stopping the clock by stepping oob.

1st and goal Buf 9: NE 4-wide, 2x2, Brady motions Welker in from wide L to a bunch duo.
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Nice pocket. Brady hits Watson in the R flat for 6 yds.

2nd and goal Buf 3: NE 4-wide, 2x2, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Brady has to step up to avoid a sack, but he's able to slide out the L side and throws a backshoulder toss to Galloway crossing the back of the end zone working against the FS. Incomplete.
-- This is a simple 'what would Brady do' read for Galloway which he'll pick up from the game film and meeting with Tommy, not a mistake, just inexperience with his QB.

0:26 2nd Qtr, injury timeout (DE Kelsey bruised a knee and was out for the night after Denney got around Light, missed Brady, and provided a helmet to knee hit on Kelsey.)

3rd and goal Buf 3: NE 3-wide, 2 L, TE R, shotgun
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Brady motions Welker into a bunch duo from wide L.
-- Buf slot CB showing blitz.
-- Draw, Inside zone which closed quickly forcing Faulk to bounce outside where he was tackled short of the goal. 1 yd.

NE Timeout, 0:05 in 2nd Qtr

4th and goal Buf 2: Gostkowski FG attempt, 20 yds, converted.
End of the 1st Half, NE 10 Buf 14

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Great stuff again, Box. Quick football-for-dummies question (I think I've worked out the rest of the lingo):

How does a 6-1 under formation look? Is the Will just pushed up on the T, essentially overloading the weak side of the line and the Sam squeezed into the big space between the NT and DE?

The under/over refers to the 4 DL since the 6-1 is just my way of quickly identifying how the two OLBs are being aligned. It's a 4-3, but I'm calling it a 6-1 to indicate 'both' OLB are on the LOS outside the DEs as if they were in a 3-4. If I haven't screwed up my nomenclature (always a high risk issue) the 4 DL will arrange themselves 'over' the TE or 'strong' side of the offensive formation or 'under' the 'weak side (away from the TE).

Using E = DE, 3 = 3-technique, N = NT, W = WLB, S = SLB, M = MLB

Over example:

- - T - G - C - G - T - TE
W E - - - - N - 3 - -E -- S
- - - - M

Under example:

- - T - G - C - G - T - TE
W E -- 3 - N - - -- E - - S
- - - - - - - - - M

I may have the exact shade or technique a little off, but what I'm seeing on the TV broadcast is 3 DL shifted to one side of the formation with one OLB on the LOS outside the DE, on the other side there is a lone DE with the other OLB on the LOS outside him for what is essentially a 60 front, the MLB lines up over the "gap" in the defensive front. When I say 6-1 I'm just seeing the basic four DL spread equally in front of the five OL with the OLBs on the LOS outside the DL and the MLB over the C.

Hope that clarifies my notes? I have to say I'm confused as to what advantage the 6-1 brings other than designating the OLB as containment and putting a stronger/slower ILB down on the LOS to wrestle with the OL.

A 'standard' 4-3 generally has (at minimum) the MLB and the WLB back a couple steps where they can more easily see the backfield, read, report (for the DL who can't see what's going on pre-snap) and react to the ball while the DL occupy the blockers. The OLB can also do this from the LOS, but they are now assigned edge contain instead of the DE and cannot flow to the play the way the MLB can. I keep seeing Guyton fighting off OL because the offense targets him as the 'reserve' force who flows to the point of attack. If they can account for Guyton they've effectively eliminated the defense's first responder, which then places the burden on the DBs to read the run and get up to make the tackle: The top tacklers (Total Tackles) from this game were:
- Meriweather
- Bodden
- Springs/Thomas
- Sanders
- TBC
- Wilhite
- Guyton who played MLB for 3/4s of the game was 7th, if you combine his numbers with Mayos they tie for 3rd with Springs/Adalius (Adalius is off the LOS in Nickel packages which helps his numbers).

To me the 6-1 looks like a less effective 3-4 at stopping the run, and a less effective 40 front at rushing the passer. Perhaps they are using it as a hybrid of the 3-4 and the 4-3 to be even more bend but don't break instead of guessing run or pass on first/second down?

 

[BradyManny]

To me the 6-1 looks like a less effective 3-4 at stopping the run, and a less effective 40 front at rushing the passer. Perhaps they are using it as a hybrid of the 3-4 and the 4-3 to be even more bend but don't break instead of guessing run or pass on first/second down?

This is good stuff Box - I have been trying to wrap my head around the 4-3 over/under we've been running of late, this helps a great deal.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

This is good stuff Box - I have been trying to wrap my head around the 4-3 over/under we've been running of late, this helps a great deal.

Well, that's my arm chair analysis from a guy who hasn't played any football since high school. I've been guessing more at this since pre-season started, it ain't my old NE 3-4 anymore. :confused2:

 

[BradyManny]

Well, that's my arm chair analysis from a guy who hasn't played any football since high school. I've been guessing more at this since pre-season started, it ain't my old NE 3-4 anymore. :confused2:

True, but it makes sense and is backed up by the video - that's more than good enough for me.

I have to wonder - if the shift to 4-3 was partially influenced by a desire to free up Mayo and utilize his speed/playmaking, then with Mayo going down, why wouldn't we go to 3-4 more? Clearly, that proved not to be the case the other nite. But I think you could make a case that a 3-4 of Warren-Wilfork-Green with TBC-AD-Guyton-Woods behind it might be our strongest lineup in the short term. I've long thought AD at SILB is one of the quickest ways to improve this team. Asking Guyton to move over to MLB and finding another guy to play 4-3 OLB seemed to prove challenging Monday nite.

 

[bucky]

6:22 2nd Qtr
3:38 2nd Qtr
1st and 10 NE 35: NE Damned crappy directing again :enranged: 3-wide, TE R
-- Buf: 4-2 Nickel
-- Play action screen L, Light fell down working against Schobel, which in and of itself shouldn't have been a big issue on a screen, but Schobel read the screen and Brady didn't loft the ball high enough as Schobel skies and tips it to himself for the interception. Light and Kaczur are unable to run him down, Morris catches him before the goal line, but in spinning him down Schobel landed on Morris so he wasn't down when the ball crossed the plane of the goal. TD Buffalo.
-- I realize there are a number of people ranting against Light for this play - you are wrong. This was an exceptional play by an exceptional football player whom I covet and have coveted for NE. It's just that simple, great player, great play.
3:29 2nd Qtr NE 7 Buf 14

I agree that this was a great play and poor decision by Brady. However, you can't tell me that Light did what he was supposed to do on this play. Looks to me like he lunged at Shobel, who then put him on the ground - which was the case quite often during the game. But of all the things Light could have done on that play, that was the worst.

 

[BradyManny]

I agree that this was a great play and poor decision by Brady. However, you can't tell me that Light did what he was supposed to do on this play. Looks to me like he lunged at Shobel, who then put him on the ground - which was the case quite often during the game. But of all the things Light could have done on that play, that was the worst.

Light's job on the screen is to let Schobel by him - he did that. He wasn't meant to get dropped to the ground, but that had no impact on whether or not Brady threw the pick. Brady threw it too low, and Schobel made a great play, that's all there is to it.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

True, but it makes sense and is backed up by the video - that's more than good enough for me.

I have to wonder - if the shift to 4-3 was partially influenced by a desire to free up Mayo and utilize his speed/playmaking, then with Mayo going down, why wouldn't we go to 3-4 more? Clearly, that proved not to be the case the other nite. But I think you could make a case that a 3-4 of Warren-Wilfork-Green with TBC-AD-Guyton-Woods behind it might be our strongest lineup in the short term. I've long thought AD at SILB is one of the quickest ways to improve this team. Asking Guyton to move over to MLB and finding another guy to play 4-3 OLB seemed to prove challenging Monday nite.

I don't know, without knowing the defensive game plan - what they wanted to shut down vs what they were willing to give up - I can't say the D played that badly (Grogan gave them a B-). They held Buffalo to 17 points, which should have been more than enough for the offense to overcome - which they did with 25, but they gave Buffalo a 7 point handicap to make it more challenging). Owens and Evans were shut down, for all Fred Jackson accomplished, he averaged 3.8 yds/carry on 57 yds for 15 attempts. The guys who "killed" the Pats were Jackson and Schouman in the passing game - in other words, NE let the RB and the blocking TE gain most of the yardage on screens and short passes.

Here's Reiss with the penalties from Monday night:
Mike Reiss' blog - Breakdown of Week 1 penalties - ESPN Boston

.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I agree that this was a great play and poor decision by Brady. However, you can't tell me that Light did what he was supposed to do on this play. Looks to me like he lunged at Shobel, who then put him on the ground - which was the case quite often during the game. But of all the things Light could have done on that play, that was the worst.

Light didn't do a good job, but all things being equal, his 'failure' on a screen play wasn't a major breakdown. Schobel has his number, amongst others, the guy is good and I hope he spends his last couple years in NE at OLB.

 

[BradyManny]

I don't know, without knowing the defensive game plan - what they wanted to shut down vs what they were willing to give up - I can't say the D played that badly (Grogan gave them a B-). They held Buffalo to 17 points, which should have been more than enough for the offense to overcome - which they did with 25, but they gave Buffalo a 7 point handicap to make it more challenging). Owens and Evans were shut down, for all Fred Jackson accomplished, he averaged 3.8 yds/carry on 57 yds for 15 attempts. The guys who "killed" the Pats were Jackson and Schouman in the passing game - in other words, NE let the RB and the blocking TE gain most of the yardage on screens and short passes.

The defense seemed to execute their game plan fairly well, Belichick said that was the plan on EEI, take away the deep stuff. Plus, of those 17 points, 7 were aided by a pretty borderline call on AD.

The 3-4 is definitely better suited against the screen game, and while stopping that wasn't priority #1 against Buffalo, it should be a high priority against the NYJ. So, I guess I'm hoping to see more 3-4 on Sunday, personally.

 

[captain stone]

Looked to me like Buffalo stunted their whole line to their right (offense's left), thus creating the problem you described. That's really not surprising considering the Pats like to run left in short yardage. Maroney probably could have picked up the 1st if he had cut back, but can't really blame him as he's just trying to get to the designated hole and pick up a foot. Buffalo's D made a lot of good plays last night. And the Pats O stunk up a bunch as well.

This is an(other) example of one of the Pats' problems on offense:
Their play-calls when showing a particular formation are just too predictable.

An example of a solution: Detroit @ NO, Lions' ball 4th/1 at NO's 3; power-I formation, TE in motion to the right, quick-pitch instead of hand-off to RB who runs left, untouched, into the EZ.