Are you confident in this defense?

[AzPatsFan]

Should we also take into account the cupcake schedule the Pats had last season? If we don't play the Cardinals in a blizzard, chances are we are nowhere near a top 10 defense and that game turns into a shootout instead of a crushing defeat.

I didn't notice the weather stopping the Pats from scoring in the mid forties...

The schedule was much tougher in the two game difference with Miami's, and we tied them for best record in the AFCE despite that fact.

 

[Bring Back Antowain!]

I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

Bill Belichick, that's my case.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I also didnt understand your 2004 comments.
If 3rd down conversions are the stat that defines a defense, why does who is injured matter, and how do you 'hide it' by running? Clearly it wasnt hidden, it was a poor ranking and we were SB Champs.

You hide it by dominating TOP. Because long passes are low-percentage, they become less desirable the less plays from scrimmage you have to build your gameplan from. It's much like how high-risk investments become more desirable when you can mitigate their risk in a larger portfolio setting, if you're into investing at all.

And as I established in the explanation, it was a poor ranking because the pass defense was really bad for a while, due to injuries, then improved as the season went on and Gay and Brown learned the position. I don't know how much experience you have with statistical modeling, but it's just about impossible to build a model without outliers. Whether they break your model or not depends on explainability.

I am curious to see game-by-game breakdowns of conversion percentage in 2004, if anyone knows where I can find them. If what I'm saying isn't true, then I'd definitely like to know. nfl.com has the right stats, but doesn't do game-by-game. profootballreference does game by game, but doesn't have the right stats

 

[Marqui]

We need to bring in more LBs before I feel confortable about the defense.

 

[Kontradiction]

I didn't notice the weather stopping the Pats from scoring in the mid forties...

The schedule was much tougher in the two game difference with Miami's, and we tied them for best record in the AFCE despite that fact.

You don't think the Pats were a little more acclimated to that climate than Arizona was? You should go look up the last time Arizona had played in that type of weather prior to that game.

And as for the "tougher schedule" bit... dude, we played the AFC West and the NFC West. The two worst divisions in football. On top of that, we had two against the Buffalo Bills. Our schedule was a cupcake schedule.

 

[BradyFTW!]

You don't think the Pats were a little more acclimated to that climate than Arizona was? You should go look up the last time Arizona had played in that type of weather prior to that game.

And as for the "tougher schedule" bit... dude, we played the AFC West and the NFC West. The two worst divisions in football. On top of that, we had two against the Buffalo Bills. Our schedule was a cupcake schedule.

That's a very good point, as well. Of all of the stats that I posted, DVOA was the only one that was adjusted for strength of schedule (and it adjusted down from raw VOA, indicating that the Pats played a below league-average schedule, which should come as a surprise to nobody).

Considering that the Pats were average or worse in most areas, even pre-adjustment, I think it's safe to say that the defense just wasn't that great last year. Which is fine- between the injuries to Harrison and Thomas, Asante's departure, and Vrabel's bum shoulder, it's pretty easy to explain why the defense was the way it was. That's why, between opening day 2008 and opening day 2009, we will be starting two new CBs, a new safety, a new ILB and a new OLB.

When's the last time that a team that had a good defense chose to replace 5 of 11 starters? (not even free agents- they all got demoted, released or traded)

 

[State]

This year's defense will be wonderful, a significant upgrade over last year's. A much better secondary, more speed at LBer, and more depth at D-line, esp. NT, where Ron Brace is more than adequate to spell Wolfork.

And going to a predominantly 4-3 when the consensus--like it was 25 years ago--that the 3-4 is the way to go shows us to be tops in the NFL in creativity and independence.

The Patriots show how it's done.

The only weakness is ILB, where the name Rey Maualuga may crop up in coming months, depending on the health of super LB J. Mayo, who is really the key to the defense, esp. in going more to a 4-3.

 

[JackBauer]

The only weakness is ILB, where the name Rey Maualuga may crop up in coming months, depending on the health of super LB J. Mayo, who is really the key to the defense, esp. in going more to a 4-3.

Why does everyone keep saying this? I think it's pretty clear that the Pats weren't very high on him, and that he wouldn't be a good fit in this system.

If anything, I think Laurinaitis' name would be more apt.

 

[wahwho]

Since I can't start a new thread...

Reiss just tweeted that Seymour is expected to be traded to the Raiders today! WTF!?

 

[patriotscpfc]

Beat you to it on the other thread. Since I can't start them yet either.

 

[cstjohn17]

I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

Post Seymour trade, the defense looks very bland. But it isn't my paper versus your paper, lets see how it plays out.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think the bottom line is that BB has to be very confident in this defense in order to make the Seymour trade, unless he's given up on it entirely for 2009, which seems highly unlikely.

 

[captain stone]

Points allowed isn't even close to the most illuminating stat when evaluating how good a defense is. It has as much to do with TOP and field position as anything else. The most important stat is 3rd down conversion percentage, and the Pats were pretty bad in that area last year. A defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down isn't a great defense.

You are correct, sir.

Last year's defense just didn't pass the smell test of a top-8 defense. I don't think that this year's defense will pass the test either, at least not until Halloween.

See, we don't disagree on everything, after all.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Belichick is very confident in the defense. He believes that he and his staff can more than make up for the losses of Vrabel and Seymour with the addition of Ninkovich and Pryor. All he needs to do is change the assignments a bit.

I think the bottom line is that BB has to be very confident in this defense in order to make the Seymour trade, unless he's given up on it entirely for 2009, which seems highly unlikely.

 

[captain stone]

Should we also take into account the cupcake schedule the Pats had last season? If we don't play the Cardinals in a blizzard, chances are we are nowhere near a top 10 defense and that game turns into a shootout instead of a crushing defeat.

Excellent point.

 

[cstjohn17]

I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

Something has been gnawing at me and it finally hit me. The defense really needs some swagger, some inherit toughness. As fans we spend a too much time thinking about schemes forgetting that football is a nasty physical business played by nasty, mean SOBs.

BB has talked about having to match the opponents intensity. I will be watching game 2 to see how the team responds to the Jets at home. Big game for the youts in a tough environment against a team that will be playing a very physical style on offense and defense. If they can stop the run against the Jests it will go a long way to easing my concerns.

 

[Bostonian1962]

I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

Well, in recent years, the defense was hurt by a lack of speed. Seau lost some steps. Bruschi lost some steps. Eugene Wilson forgot how to play. Harrison lost some steps. Lost some steps is being kind. They got slow, as much as we all love what they were.

Merriweather and Sanders have some speed, and now some experience. Guyton has speed/Mayo has speed (and both aren't rookies anymore, so they can USE their speed). And, was I the only one that felt much better watching Bodden cover guys in the preseason, compared to what Hobbes brought?

Burgess has been trying to learn the defense. If he does, and then becomes a force rushing the passer, the entire defense will improve.

I am not predicting anything, but one case for being anything but average will be, improved speed, along with a year under the belts of Guyton, Mayo, Willhite., and several others Along with the fact that the defensive backfield will be better, I think. Just an improvement from what Hobbes brought (though I did love his kickoff return ability) has got to be significant. I expect, by the way, Butler is going to surpise with his skill set. He's got the speed and loose hips, and if he gets "coached up", they could really hit with him. It's just my hunch on the player. Time will tell if I'm right.

If Burgess gets double digit sacks, the defense will end up being above average, because all the DBs will benefit. We've not had pressure like that in quite some time.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I don't necessarily think we're worse off than we have been in the last two years. The 07 defense wasn't all that good, and they spent 70% of the season pinning their ears back because every down was a passing down for three quarters. We'll still be able to score points, and we will win games by punching the other team silly. We probably could have stayed in that game against the Phins with Brady instead of a QB who hasn't seen a blitz since he's been a legal adult and maybe even won it.

Will we be able to make critical stops against teams other than 2-14 teams? Probably not, not with Dean Pees. Some DC's can totally make up for a lack of talent (see: Jim Johnson); Dean Pees is not one of those DC's.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree that Belichick is very confident in the defense. He believes that he and his staff can more than make up for the losses of Vrabel and Seymour with the addition of Ninkovich and Pryor. All he needs to do is change the assignments a bit.

Are you serious?

Add Brace, Burgess, Woods, TBC, Wright and Green and I'll agree with you but c'mon. Last time I checked BB makes a great chicken salad with good chicken.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I don't necessarily think we're worse off than we have been in the last two years. The 07 defense wasn't all that good, and they spent 70% of the season pinning their ears back because every down was a passing down for three quarters. We'll still be able to score points, and we will win games by punching the other team silly. We probably could have stayed in that game against the Phins with Brady instead of a QB who hasn't seen a blitz since he's been a legal adult and maybe even won it.

Will we be able to make critical stops against teams other than 2-14 teams? Probably not, not with Dean Pees. Some DC's can totally make up for a lack of talent (see: Jim Johnson); Dean Pees is not one of those DC's.

will to tell you the turth the pats should have been playing a 4-3 (2 years ago) they have not had the LB to play a 3-4 with some speed at LB like the stellers do in a long time

and as far as jim johnson go's all he dose is blitz a lot

and he can do that because he has all pro corners something the pats dont have

the pats starting corner last year o'neal could not even make the taxens 53 man roster

and the new guy's the pats bring in the lions cast off

and springs who is not just realy old but all so has not played a full season in some time