Are you confident in this defense?

[PatsFanSince74]

my usual mode out here is not to panic, and in the case of our D, I'm not even in the same area code as panic at this point.

i was disappointed that teams moved down the field as efficiently as they did and that we didn't generate more of a pass rush in preseason; but the magic word there is "preseason." losing Brewski and Rodney is going to hurt any D, no matter how far towards the end of their careers they were and the revamped secondary is unproven.

so, i'm cautiously optimistic about a D that was pretty darn good last year and am going to wait and see how things go. hopefully, the offense can carry the load while the D coheres.

 

[Fencer]

I'll make the case.

Last year we were above average, ranked 8th and 10th in points and yards.
So if we compare equally or favorably to last year, we are certainly above average.
DL- At least equal, but assuming Warren is healthier that makes us better. Brace may or may not add something. Nothing is lesser than last year.
LB- Our OLBs last year were Vrabel + 1/2 Thomas, + 1/4 Woods + 1/4 Colvin. I see Thomas filling a role similar to Vrabels and based on 2008, thats an upgrade. For half the games we are less at the other side, and half the games better. The sub package role of OLBs could be improved by Burgess.
ILB Mayo figures to be better in year 2. We use a 2nd ILB about half the time, and by the end of 2008 it seemed apparent Guyton was outplaying Tedy. Overall our LB play in 2008 particularly due to injury was disappointing, and this year should be a wash at the worst.
CB- BB decided that Hobbs and Oneal were not good enough and the corners left here and brought in are upgrades. There is no question BB feels it is an upgrade because he had the ability to return the entire unit and gained next to nothing in return for the jettisoned players. If BB is to be considered knowing what he is doing this is a big upgrade.
S- Harrison did not play much, or well in 2008. At least a wash, probably an improvement.

BB BY CHOICE replaced 4 of his starters (and the 5th, Rodney, he would have, if given the choice, because he clearly was through).
There is a big difference, IMO, from changes due to losing players and changes due to getting rid of players. If we are to believe BB knows something about defense, our defense will be better in 09 than 08, because he chose to change the personell.

I'm wary of any argument that compares a team's or unit health at the beginning of the season to its health for the duration of the prior season. Thomas was probably the best non-DL player on the unit, and he was hurt, so we can't say health off the DL was good. There were other injuries (both for guys who played through them, including on the DL, and guys who didn't) as well.

That said, the safeties could be better than last year of Meriweather is indeed blossoming. The CBs clearly could and should be better, especially since mediocre-when-healthy Hobbs was playing hurt. And if the best front 7 players don't miss any more games than they did last season, and Mayo continues to blossom, they are loikely to be better.

And hopefully the crucial-downs suckosity can be coached away.

So I'm cautiously optimistic. "Confident," however, is overstating the matter.

 

[Patriot Missile]

At this point? No. From what I've seen our front seven has done a ok job. Pass rush has been better. Our secondary is what scares me a lot. Although it is preseason I have never seen so many blown coverages out of a BB coached team. We all know Bill has watched the film and I'm hoping he corrects and adjust his players and his philosophy so they are all on the same page.

Chung is a rookie so I'm going to give him 3 years to "get it" before I label him. However,from what I saw from him so far he is at best a sub package player this season. Bodden looked ok and the other rookie cb Butler showed flashes of being a player.

Does Shawn Springs still play football? I think we should pull his scholarship if he does. Talk about dissapointing thus far. Hopefully he's ready to contribute when the time comes.

As far as I am concerned this defense lives and dies by Bellichick and his coaches. If he can't fix and correct these players then the blame will lie with him. He drafted them and he signed the free agents.

On a lighter note, its just preseason. Many teams have looked a mess after the 4th pre game and went on to be fabulous during the regular season. Detroit won all 4 of their preseason games last season and where did that get them? It's very possible and plausible that the coaching staff is throwing garbage packages out there just to see how their players react to adversity or trying out a new play.

 

[Ring 6]

And our pass rush from the 3-4 last year was good?

A 2-Gap front relies on the linebackers getting through the OL and making sacks. Look at our LB sack statistics from last year. For a 3-4 it was woeful. With Brace, Pryor and Wright able to transition at DT we can use Burgess, TBC, Woods and even Thomas as DE's. Plus Seymour isnt as sluggish as seem to make him out

I think what we have is 3-4, 4-3 options (1 gap/2-gap) to play run or pass as we see fit. I also don't believe you can solely play one or the other as in a BB defense you better be flexible

So as has been said I expect to see both

Well you can be sure it is 2gap, that is the basis of all of BBs defensive philosophy.
I'm not sure the solution to not liking the pass rush last year is to move players out of position and play a scheme it would be harder for us to rush from.
BB always plays a good amount of 43 in the preseason. He has said the techniuqes and principles are similar and he always does use some 43 during the season so he uses it a lot early because during the season there is not much time to practice it or certainly install it.

 

[bucky]

If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

"Average" would be an improvement over last year. Add that improvement to a healthy Brady to last year's 11-5 team, and this team is good enough to win it all.

 

[Ring 6]

"Average" would be an improvement over last year. Add that improvement to a healthy Brady to last year's 11-5 team, and this team is good enough to win it all.

How is 8th out of 32 worse than average?
It is better than 24 and worse than 7.
Worse than average starts at 17th

 

[mgteich]

You clearly do not know the meaning of the word "average".

"Average" would be an improvement over last year. Add that improvement to a healthy Brady to last year's 11-5 team, and this team is good enough to win it all.

 

[SyN65]

No. I expect it to get better with time but so far our secondary looks absolutely terrible.

 

[bucky]

How is 8th out of 32 worse than average?
It is better than 24 and worse than 7.
Worse than average starts at 17th

I think we have been through this before, so I won't rehash it. You're looking at the most generic stats which are misleading - IMO. If I recall correctly, the Patriots offense also had the best time of possession in the league, which skews the overall numbers. If you look at stats percentage-wise, especially passing stats like opponents' QB rating, 3rd down conversion %, long plays allowed, red zone defense, etc, this defense was in the bottom 10 and sometimes worse.

 

[patsox23]

I think we have been through this before, so I won't rehash it. You're looking at the most generic stats which are misleading - IMO. If I recall correctly, the Patriots offense also had the best time of possession in the league, which skews the overall numbers. If you look at stats percentage-wise, especially passing stats like opponents' QB rating, 3rd down conversion %, long plays allowed, red zone defense, etc, this defense was in the bottom 10 and sometimes worse.

Exactly. Thanks for chiming in.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Exactly. Thanks for chiming in.

Huh?

I think you and Bucky need to quit while your really behind. There are two stats that matter- points and win/loss.

A defense that is 8th in points allowed is far more important than some of the "stats" you mentioned. You don't get more points for a passing TD vs a rushing TD.

You don't get more points for 70 yards TD pass than a 3 yard run.

It's like the "pundits" lauding the Minnesota run defense without realizing a 32nd pass defense might have something to do with it.

 

[Ring 6]

I think we have been through this before, so I won't rehash it. You're looking at the most generic stats which are misleading - IMO. If I recall correctly, the Patriots offense also had the best time of possession in the league, which skews the overall numbers. If you look at stats percentage-wise, especially passing stats like opponents' QB rating, 3rd down conversion %, long plays allowed, red zone defense, etc, this defense was in the bottom 10 and sometimes worse.

You are looking at the stats that are each a piece of whether or not a defense is successful, and ignoring the cumulative result, which is points allowed.
I could care less what stats look good or bad if points are not being allowed. Those stats you are citing are telling part of the story, and the ones you leave out, added to them puts the Pats 2008 defense in the top 1/4 of the NFL.

By the way, time of possession is a stat that is equally attributable to offense and defense. Every second you leave the other team on the field, you cant be on it.

 

[bucky]

Huh?

I think you and Bucky need to quit while your really behind. There are two stats that matter- points and win/loss.

A defense that is 8th in points allowed is far more important than some of the "stats" you mentioned. You don't get more points for a passing TD vs a rushing TD.

You don't get more points for 70 yards TD pass than a 3 yard run.

It's like the "pundits" lauding the Minnesota run defense without realizing a 32nd pass defense might have something to do with it.

You're right that points and wins are the most important stat. Except it is a team stat. "Points Allowed" is affected by the offense, defense, and ST. The patriots' offense had the best time of possession and the highest number of plays from scrimmage. If you want to measure the defense, you have to use stats that isolate defensive performance.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

You're right that points and wins are the most important stat. Except it is a team stat. "Points Allowed" is affected by the offense, defense, and ST. The patriots' offense had the best time of possession and the highest number of plays from scrimmage. If you want to measure the defense, you have to use stats that isolate defensive performance.

Please review Andy's post and re-evaluate.

 

[bucky]

You are looking at the stats that are each a piece of whether or not a defense is successful, and ignoring the cumulative result, which is points allowed.
I could care less what stats look good or bad if points are not being allowed. Those stats you are citing are telling part of the story, and the ones you leave out, added to them puts the Pats 2008 defense in the top 1/4 of the NFL.

By the way, time of possession is a stat that is equally attributable to offense and defense. Every second you leave the other team on the field, you cant be on it.

OK, my point is that "points allowed" is not a purely defensive statistic. When you make a statement like "this is the 8th best defense in the NFL", you're quantifying the defense, but you're using team stats to back it up. So I am looking for the stats that measure the effectiveness of the defense with as little impact as possible from offense and ST. Things like avg yds/play. Forced turnovers. I can go down the list and name a bunch of stats that are "defensive" as opposed to "team", and the Pats won't be in the top half of the league in any of them.

 

[bucky]

Please review Andy's post and re-evaluate.

FootballOutsiders is generally considered a good resource of statistical information. They dig considerably deeper into the stats and make a considerably better approximation of an individual unit's efficiency that "points allowed". Have a look, there is nothing there that mentions the patriots in the top half of the league defensively:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

 

[Ring 6]

OK, my point is that "points allowed" is not a purely defensive statistic. When you make a statement like "this is the 8th best defense in the NFL", you're quantifying the defense, but you're using team stats to back it up. So I am looking for the stats that measure the effectiveness of the defense with as little impact as possible from offense and ST. Things like avg yds/play. Forced turnovers. I can go down the list and name a bunch of stats that are "defensive" as opposed to "team", and the Pats won't be in the top half of the league in any of them.

Yes you can pick and choose stats to support whatever you want.
The ones you pick appear to indicate the weaknesses and ignore the strengths. Didnt the Patriot D allow the fewest trips into the red zone? Ho can you cite what happens in the red zone without citing preventing them from getting there.
The job of the defense is to not allow points. That really isnt an offensive statistic. Whether you found the stops pretty or not, is irrelevant.

Average would be an improvement would tell me that you rank them somewhere around the bottom 1/4. The 25th ranked defense (top of lowest 1/4) allowed 83 more points. The team just under average allowed 47 more points.
You are going to have to give me a lot more than 'stats mean more than results" to overcome all of those points in a league where 3-4 points decide most of the games.

 

[Ring 6]

FootballOutsiders is generally considered a good resource of statistical information. They dig considerably deeper into the stats and make a considerably better approximation of an individual unit's efficiency that "points allowed". Have a look, there is nothing there that mentions the patriots in the top half of the league defensively:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

When game are decided by stats other than the scoreboard, I will put more weight on things other than points allowed for a defense.
Style points don't count, and the underlying stats are no more than that.
The job of a defense is to prevent points....how they do it is irrelevant.

 

[bucky]

Yes you can pick and choose stats to support whatever you want.
The ones you pick appear to indicate the weaknesses and ignore the strengths. Didnt the Patriot D allow the fewest trips into the red zone? Ho can you cite what happens in the red zone without citing preventing them from getting there.
The job of the defense is to not allow points. That really isnt an offensive statistic. Whether you found the stops pretty or not, is irrelevant.

Average would be an improvement would tell me that you rank them somewhere around the bottom 1/4. The 25th ranked defense (top of lowest 1/4) allowed 83 more points. The team just under average allowed 47 more points.
You are going to have to give me a lot more than 'stats mean more than results" to overcome all of those points in a league where 3-4 points decide most of the games.

I'm not going to argue over this because it's pointless and it's last year. We're both entitled to our opinions. I think you would have to agree though that last year's defense was probably the worst BB defense since we converted to 3-4 in 2003.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not going to argue over this because it's pointless and it's last year. We're both entitled to our opinions. I think you would have to agree though that last year's defense was probably the worst BB defense since we converted to 3-4 in 2003.

2005 was the worst