Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis Make the 53?

[klinefan]

I don't know that they can cut BJGE. He tries HARD...he does what they ask, hits the hole hard, runs hard, doesn't go down easy.

How you going to cut him and keep Maroney who falls down when someone breathes on him. Or even breathes nearby.

Ever notice Maroney will come to the line kind of hop to the line with both feet spread wide...he then sees DL on both sides of his peripheral vision and hesitates. Then he just falls down basically. It's kind of comical.

Maybe the play calling is bad...whenever Maroney is single set back it's always Maroney up the middle, not a lot of guess work there for hte defense. Maybe swing him out wide or have him in as a blocker. Maroney should never EVER be running it up the middle.

Can they cut Taylor? He's washed up...great signing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I don't know that they can cut BJGE. He tries HARD...he does what they ask, hits the hole hard, runs hard, doesn't go down easy.

How you going to cut him and keep Maroney who falls down when someone breathes on him. Or even breathes nearby.

Ever notice Maroney will come to the line kind of hop to the line with both feet spread wide...he then sees DL on both sides of his peripheral vision and hesitates. Then he just falls down basically. It's kind of comical.

Maybe the play calling is bad...whenever Maroney is single set back it's always Maroney up the middle, not a lot of guess work there for hte defense. Maybe swing him out wide or have him in as a blocker. Maroney should never EVER be running it up the middle.

Can they cut Taylor? He's washed up...great signing.

Career Attempts, Yards, YPC
Maroney: 388, 1673, 4.3
Green-Ellis: 74, 275, 3.7

Please, try to explain to me how BJGE, who "runs hard, hits the hole hard, and doesn't go down easy" can get 3.7 YPC, while Maroney, who apparently falls down whenever he sees a defensive lineman, manages 4.3. By the way, Maroney is also stopped for a loss on a significantly smaller percentage of his carries than Morris. I'm not sure about BJGE, but one of these days I'll run the numbers on him (although his sample size is small enough that I wouldn't put too much stock in whatever came out) and see how he stacks up.

And those are only the most basic statistics. I'd drag out some of the more advanced statistics that further show that Maroney is light-years better than BJGE, but a) it's already been done a dozen times here, and b) you wouldn't understand them anyways.

Overall, I think whatever problems Maroney has had have been mostly a product of injury. When healthy, he's been a highly productive back for the Pats (and one of the most efficient in the NFL). He's just rarely healthy, which is admittedly a problem. Still, considering that it's been shoulder problems that have done him in, and his shoulder is apparently fully healthy after the long layoff, I'm pretty optimistic.

I do agree with you to an extent re: playcalling, though, in that Maroney in space is explosive as hell. I think that we'll see him getting the ball in more creative ways this season.


EDIT: Just ran the numbers on BJGE, and as I said before, the sample size is small enough that I'm a little suspicious of the conclusions, but I will admit that they have an interesting wrinkle. I'd also qualify the numbers by saying that in 3 of the games (Broncos, Dolphins, Steelers) he got carries in blowout situations, but stats are stats, so take em or leave em.

When I did Maroney and Morris, by comparison, I found that they both got stopped for a loss a little over 10% of the time (around 11% actually, IIRC). For each game that BJGE played in, I broke runs down into 3 categories, as follows: (Gain, No Gain, Loss):

Broncos: (11, 1, 1)
Rams: (7, 2, 0)
Colts: (12, 3, 0)
Bills: (24, 1, 1)
Jets: (3, 0, 0)
Dolphins 7, 0, 0)
Steelers: (2, 0, 0)

So ultimately, you have a guy who, in 66 carries, only lost yardage twice. That's not totally surprising, given GE's running style, but it's awfully impressive. I'm not willing to read much into it, once again because the sample size is too small, but it's interesting.

Of course, there's a catch, which, once again, isn't really a surprise: how does a guy who almost never loses yards still end up with only 3.7 YPC? Well... by rarely gaining very much. While I didn't break down gains by number of yards, I can say anecdotally that a ton of them were for 1 or 2 yards.

So I dunno, go ahead and read something into those numbers if you want, though I wouldn't recommend it. Doesn't really do anything to dispel the notion that BJGE is a dependably sorta decent runner. If the sample size is an accurate representation of what he can do, then he'll lose yards less than Maroney and Morris, but will put up carries of 4+ yards far less than either of them, as well.

 

[RayClay]

What part of 3.7ypc is good yardage?

You are hung up on averages. You realize that a nine yard run and a stuff averages out to 4.5?

My point? consistent 3-4 yard runs move the chains, long runs and stuffs don't. Case in point, our Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Maroney did not have a single 3 or 4 yard run. That means a fair amount of 7 and 9 yarders offset by being stuffed 2-4 times in a row, Brady getting sacked and the Pats abandoning the run because we couldn't move the chains or keep out of 3rd and longs.

Check the pbp yourself. A few (2nd, 3rd qtr?) sacks immediately followed Maroney getting stuffed at least once or twice.

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Play By Play - February 03, 2008 - ESPN

 

[JackBauer]

You are hung up on averages. You realize that a nine yard run and a stuff averages out to 4.5?

My point? consistent 3-4 yard runs move the chains, long runs and stuffs don't. Case in point, our Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Maroney did not have a single 3 or 4 yard run. That means a fair amount of 7 and 9 yarders offset by being stuffed 2-4 times in a row, Brady getting sacked and the Pats abandoning the run because we couldn't move the chains or keep out of 3rd and longs.

Check the pbp yourself. A few (2nd, 3rd qtr?) sacks immediately followed Maroney getting stuffed at least once or twice.

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Play By Play - February 03, 2008 - ESPN

Somehow I question the usefulness of judging runningbacks by a game in which the OL was thoroughly and completely *****slapped into oblivion.

 

[Mike the Brit]

So ultimately, you have a guy who, in 66 carries, only lost yardage twice. That's not totally surprising, given GE's running style, but it's awfully impressive. I'm not willing to read much into it, once again because the sample size is too small, but it's interesting.

Of course, there's a catch, which, once again, isn't really a surprise: how does a guy who almost never loses yards still end up with only 3.7 YPC? Well... by rarely gaining very much. While I didn't break down gains by number of yards, I can say anecdotally that a ton of them were for 1 or 2 yards.

So I dunno, go ahead and read something into those numbers if you want, though I wouldn't recommend it. Doesn't really do anything to dispel the notion that BJGE is a dependably sorta decent runner. If the sample size is an accurate representation of what he can do, then he'll lose yards less than Maroney and Morris, but will put up carries of 4+ yards far less than either of them, as well.

BFTW, thanks for those interesting numbers. (I didn't mean this to be another Maroney thread, but I suppose it is inevitable. ) As for BJGE, do you have any numbers to confirm my impression that he was often being used as a short yardage back? I don't mean that he is the second coming of Jerome Bettis but I do remember him being used somewhat that way and your numbers are consistent with that (small gains, few losses).

 

[RayClay]

Somehow I question the usefulness of judging runningbacks by a game in which the OL was thoroughly and completely *****slapped into oblivion.

Because the best way to stop pass rushers from pinning their ears back and getting in rhythm is to run the ball and move the chains?

Look at the second quarter. 2nd down and two and he can't pick up two yars on two runs? Soon after Brady gets sacked multiple times.

Why not actually look at the link and consider the post before firing off a knee jerk response?

By the way, that oline blocked for him during his 7 and 9 yard runs.

 

[JackBauer]

Because the best way to stop pass rushers from pinning their ears back and getting in rhythm is to run the ball and move the chains?

Look at the second quarter. 2nd down and two and he can't pick up two yars on two runs? Soon after Brady gets sacked multiple times.

Why not actually look at the link and consider the post before firing off a knee jerk response?

By the way, that oline blocked for him during his 7 and 9 yard runs.

Gee, you don't say? So the offensive line can occasionally bring itself to block serviceably? Point taken!

If only we had a worldbeater like BJGE on that 2nd and 2, a guy who has a real "feel for the hole," perhaps things would've turned out differently . And of course we can divine all of this by reading between the lines of the PBP.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because the best way to stop pass rushers from pinning their ears back and getting in rhythm is to run the ball and move the chains?

Look at the second quarter. 2nd down and two and he can't pick up two yars on two runs? Soon after Brady gets sacked multiple times.

Why not actually look at the link and consider the post before firing off a knee jerk response?

By the way, that oline blocked for him during his 7 and 9 yard runs.

Maroney had been running extremely well at the end of 2007 and into the playoffs. It came to a screeching halt against the Giants in the Super Bowl, but the same thing had happened week 17 when Maroney had gotten 19 carries. It's pretty clear that either the Giants were able to steal Maroney's mojo or, much more likely, the giants defensive line was able to negate the Patriots offensive line. Given that Faulk had 2 carries for -2 yards in week 17 and just 1 carry in the Super Bowl, I'd say that the 'problem' likely was in the offensive line and not the running game.

 

[RayClay]

Maroney had been running extremely well at the end of 2007 and into the playoffs. It came to a screeching halt against the Giants in the Super Bowl, but the same thing had happened week 17 when Maroney had gotten 19 carries. It's pretty clear that either the Giants were able to steal Maroney's mojo or, much more likely, the giants defensive line was able to negate the Patriots offensive line. Given that Faulk had 2 carries for -2 yards in week 17 and just 1 carry in the Super Bowl, I'd say that the 'problem' likely was in the offensive line and not the running game.

I think he has a worlsd of talent and was a beast against San Diego, I believe. I do think that it can be shown he is an all or nothing back that is a problem for a team who has invested so much in a great QB and receivers.

When you think about the dynamics of moving down the field and how much easier it is to get ten yards passing, rather than running, it becomes obvious why plodders like Eddie George and Antowain Smith get the job done while more exciting runners make the offense stutter sometimes.

Two three yard runs are boring, but it's 3rd and four, while that exciting 15 yard run on the previous series still leaves you 3rd and 10 after two stuffs.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think he has a worlsd of talent and was a beast against San Diego, I believe. I do think that it can be shown he is an all or nothing back that is a problem for a team who has invested so much in a great QB and receivers.

When you think about the dynamics of moving down the field and how much easier it is to get ten yards passing, rather than running, it becomes obvious why plodders like Eddie George and Antowain Smith get the job done while more exciting runners make the offense stutter sometimes.

Two three yard runs are boring, but it's 3rd and four, while that exciting 15 yard run on the previous series still leaves you 3rd and 10 after two stuffs.

You're wrong and the data showing it has been provided on numerous occasions. As for Smith, please tell me you're kidding.

 

[RayClay]

You're wrong and the data showing it has been provided on numerous occasions. As for Smith, please tell me you're kidding.

Of course I'm not kidding. We won two Super Bowls, one with a very limited offense with a new QB.

That's the only way I judge success.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course I'm not kidding. We won two Super Bowls, one with a very limited offense with a new QB.

That's the only way I judge success.

Got it. Randy Moss and Dan Marino suck.

 

[RayClay]

Got it. Randy Moss and Dan Marino suck.

Not able to stay anywhere near the topic, are you? Talking about what type of running games moves the chans and complements a good passing game.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not able to stay anywhere near the topic, are you? Talking about what type of running games moves the chans and complements a good passing game.

Actually, we'd gotten to Smith and you'd made that assertion which made no sense, which I'd hoped you'd see when I used Moss and Marino in the response. Maroney, using your logic, got the team to the Super Bowl after an undefeated season.

BJGE got the team to 11-5 and not in the playoffs.

 

[BradyFTW!]

BFTW, thanks for those interesting numbers. (I didn't mean this to be another Maroney thread, but I suppose it is inevitable. ) As for BJGE, do you have any numbers to confirm my impression that he was often being used as a short yardage back? I don't mean that he is the second coming of Jerome Bettis but I do remember him being used somewhat that way and your numbers are consistent with that (small gains, few losses).

Given his skill-set, it seems natural that he *would* be used as a short-yardage back, wherever possible. Last season, though, he only played as an emergency starter when the other guys were hurt, so he was more or less forced into full-time duty. He carried plenty on first and second down.

 

[BradyFTW!]

You are hung up on averages. You realize that a nine yard run and a stuff averages out to 4.5?

My point? consistent 3-4 yard runs move the chains, long runs and stuffs don't. Case in point, our Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Maroney did not have a single 3 or 4 yard run. That means a fair amount of 7 and 9 yarders offset by being stuffed 2-4 times in a row, Brady getting sacked and the Pats abandoning the run because we couldn't move the chains or keep out of 3rd and longs.

Check the pbp yourself. A few (2nd, 3rd qtr?) sacks immediately followed Maroney getting stuffed at least once or twice.

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Play By Play - February 03, 2008 - ESPN

I think he has a worlsd of talent and was a beast against San Diego, I believe. I do think that it can be shown he is an all or nothing back that is a problem for a team who has invested so much in a great QB and receivers.

When you think about the dynamics of moving down the field and how much easier it is to get ten yards passing, rather than running, it becomes obvious why plodders like Eddie George and Antowain Smith get the job done while more exciting runners make the offense stutter sometimes.

Two three yard runs are boring, but it's 3rd and four, while that exciting 15 yard run on the previous series still leaves you 3rd and 10 after two stuffs.

Considering how often this argument is used against Maroney (he has a 4.5 yard average because he's 10 yards or bust), you would think that it had any validity whatsoever in reality. Want some facts? The numbers don't support that perception at all. Maroney very, very rarely busts 15+ yard runs. Hell, he rarely goes for 10. He's stuffed at almost the exact same rate that Morris is, yet for some reason we don't hear this complaint about Morris (probably because the perception of Morris is that he's a workhorse, and we all know how well perceptions correlate with reality...). Maroney's higher YPC is because he tends to get another couple yards here on short/intermediate runs.

For some further info, I'd really suggest you check out the DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) statistic. This adjusts for down, distance, time remaining, and defense, changing the parameters for success on any given play based on what the team needs to accomplish in that situation. In 2007, Maroney's DVOA was 16.7% (0% is league average), which was good for 10th in the NFL among RBs. His success rate was 59%, which was 2nd in the NFL among RBs.

Note what Football Outsiders says about DVOA and Success Rate:

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more.

If Maroney was the player that you think he is, he would have a low success rate, rather than one of the best in the NFL. FWIW, I think that you (and others with your opinion) are just the victims of selective memory and bias- You think that Maroney sucks and gets stuffed all the time, so the runs that you remember are the ones that stick out to you, because they reinforce what you already believe. This is a natural human response, and it's why the most intelligent people in virtually every field flat-out don't trust anecdotal evidence. I buy that you're anecdotally pretty sure of your conclusion, but it simply isn't true. The numbers don't back it up on any level.

Also, to clarify, I'm not claiming that these numbers are a perfect evaluation of talent or anything. But what they do conclusively tell us is that, when given the ball, Maroney accomplished what the team needed of him more often than all but one RB in 2007. That's a pretty powerful statement.

 

[LasVegasPatsFan]

BJGE has done well when call upon considering not getting alot of reps in real game situations. How well do you think LM would do if he sat the bench all season, only to be put in the game during emergency situations. Matt Cassel never played since high school and took him till mid season to improve. I believe if BJGE played more often as a starter, his numbers would improve vastly. He runs very hard and it takes more than 1 guy to bring him down. I am not saying he is better than LM but I am not impressed with the last 3 years. Sure he is injury prone, but everyone knew that coming out of college. You get what you get.

 

[Patspsycho]

BJGE has done well when call upon considering not getting alot of reps in real game situations. How well do you think LM would do if he sat the bench all season, only to be put in the game during emergency situations. Matt Cassel never played since high school and took him till mid season to improve. I believe if BJGE played more often as a starter, his numbers would improve vastly. He runs very hard and it takes more than 1 guy to bring him down. I am not saying he is better than LM but I am not impressed with the last 3 years. Sure he is injury prone, but everyone knew that coming out of college. You get what you get.

Well said!

 

[RayClay]

Actually, we'd gotten to Smith and you'd made that assertion which made no sense, which I'd hoped you'd see when I used Moss and Marino in the response. Maroney, using your logic, got the team to the Super Bowl after an undefeated season.

BJGE got the team to 11-5 and not in the playoffs.

Just say you don't want to discuss it. BJ obviously briought no one anywhere in two games.

I think it's worth discussing whether a consistent but unspectacular back complements a passing game better than a hit or miss star.

It's a little bit complex, I guess.

 

[RayClay]

Considering how often this argument is used against Maroney (he has a 4.5 yard average because he's 10 yards or bust), you would think that it had any validity whatsoever in reality. Want some facts? The numbers don't support that perception at all. Maroney very, very rarely busts 15+ yard runs. Hell, he rarely goes for 10. He's stuffed at almost the exact same rate that Morris is, yet for some reason we don't hear this complaint about Morris (probably because the perception of Morris is that he's a workhorse, and we all know how well perceptions correlate with reality...). Maroney's higher YPC is because he tends to get another couple yards here on short/intermediate runs.

For some further info, I'd really suggest you check out the DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) statistic. This adjusts for down, distance, time remaining, and defense, changing the parameters for success on any given play based on what the team needs to accomplish in that situation. In 2007, Maroney's DVOA was 16.7% (0% is league average), which was good for 10th in the NFL among RBs. His success rate was 59%, which was 2nd in the NFL among RBs.

Note what Football Outsiders says about DVOA and Success Rate:



If Maroney was the player that you think he is, he would have a low success rate, rather than one of the best in the NFL. FWIW, I think that you (and others with your opinion) are just the victims of selective memory and bias- You think that Maroney sucks and gets stuffed all the time, so the runs that you remember are the ones that stick out to you, because they reinforce what you already believe. This is a natural human response, and it's why the most intelligent people in virtually every field flat-out don't trust anecdotal evidence. I buy that you're anecdotally pretty sure of your conclusion, but it simply isn't true. The numbers don't back it up on any level.

Also, to clarify, I'm not claiming that these numbers are a perfect evaluation of talent or anything. But what they do conclusively tell us is that, when given the ball, Maroney accomplished what the team needed of him more often than all but one RB in 2007. That's a pretty powerful statement.

Do you have those numbers? I just looked up the Super Bowl carries on a hunch and he did not have one run of 3 or 4 yards. Obviously a small sample, but i do recall him getting a fair number of long runs and getting stuffed quite a bit.

If you have those numbers, as you imply, I'd love to see them.