Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis Make the 53?

[RayClay]

Let me understand this.
Maroney ran 14 times for 36 yards, 2.6 per carry, 60% of his career average, and you are going to count the # of 3 or 4 yard runs in those 12 plays (2 were inside the 3 so couldnt count) to judge him as a hit or miss player? Given that he ran for 60% of his career average, do you feel the OL played well? Or are we just saying Maroney didnt want to run well that day?

The Patriots had 3 drives in the 4th quarter, (and it would be lidicrous to suggest anyone 'abandons the run with 1 minute left down 3 points) all while trailing.
The 2007 Patriots were the most prolific passing offense in NFL history, but you judge the fact that when trailing and needing to score they passed on those 2 drives was because they looked at how many 3 or 4 yard runs Maroney had and decided they were forced to 'abandon the run'???????
If you are going to try to fit facts to meet your perception, you need to come closer than you are for anyone to listen.

I didn't say he was a hit or miss player. He's a very talented player.

Wow, I guess I was wrong, so how much did they beat the Giants by?

 

[Deus Irae]

I didn't say he was a hit or miss player. He's a very talented player.

Wow, I guess I was wrong, so how much did they beat the Giants by?

Troy Brown > Randy Moss
David Patten > Wes Welker

 

[Ring 6]

Read the whole thread and the thing that stands out to me is that he has looked very good in preseason. My gut says we have to keep him because he done the job when needed last year, he will be picked up if we let him go and we have to be concerned with the injury prone nature of our other backs. So keep him and work him in on STs so that he is useful if the RBs ahead of him stay fit.

If we keep him he will be inactive until we have 2 RBs injured.
We cant have 5 active RBs. There is no room. We really should have only 3, but given the abilities of the ones we have its somewhat possible that all 4 would be active if all were healthy, but no way 3+ BJGE would be active if one were injured.
What other position would we be keeping a player who wouldnt see the field without 2 injuries?
You state the reason is because we would lose him? He is a borderline NFL RB. If he had a plethora of injuries there are 30 other borderline NFL RBs out there to sign for emergency service.

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't say he was a hit or miss player. He's a very talented player.

Wow, I guess I was wrong, so how much did they beat the Giants by?

Now you didnt say what you have spend a whole thread arguing about?

So Maroney is the reason we lost the SB?
And if we had Antowain Smith we would have won? Is that truly your argument?
Are you honestly trying to say that your proof that your negative opinion of Maroney is correct is that we lost one game in 2007?

 

[BradyFTW!]

I'd separate 2 and 3 yard carries. 3-4 yards gets the job done, while you need 5 - 2 yard carries for a first - not really the same.

I see Maroney 8.47% for loss BJ 2.7%.
That's a big difference, especially since we don't know how many yards lost.


60.89% Maroney, positive yardage to up to 5 yards

76.37% BJ, Positive yardage to up to 5 yards.

This is what we call biased statistics, everyone. First off, nobody's going to run the ball four straight times, so your distinction of "3 yards gets it done because it gets a first down" is pointless and, in practice, incorrect. In reality, if you run it three straight times for 3 yards, you punt the ball.

Rushes rarely lose more than 2 yards, so that answers your question for how many yards lost.

All that you're doing by making the "positive yardage, up to 5 yards" distinction is punishing Maroney for the fact that, where GE tends to go down after 2-4 yards, Maroney is far more able to grind an extra 2 or 3 yards out of the same carries. You're counting a 5 yard carry as a 'good' result, and a 6 yard carry as a 'bad' result, which is so fundamentally wrong that I'm kinda shocked that this requires explanation. It's a falsely negative result, and an obviously biased attempt to skew numbers. In short, you're showing your complete ignorance of statistical analysis.

I said it before, and I'll say it again: they get stuffed almost exactly as often, and go for 10+ almost exactly as often. The only difference is that on intermediate carries, Maroney is able to grind out more yards. You're wrong, and it's kinda sad that your ego is so fragile that you can't just grow up, accept it, and learn something from this thread.

I didn't say he was a hit or miss player.

Nope, you never said anything of the sort.

I do think that it can be shown he is an all or nothing back

I think it's worth discussing whether a consistent but unspectacular back complements a passing game better than a hit or miss star.

 

[Ring 6]

Troy Brown > Randy Moss
David Patten > Wes Welker

Mike Compton>Logan Mankins
Jermaine Wiggins>Ben Watson
Fred Coleman>Dante Stallworth

We should send this guy to argue the value of Brady's rings vs Manning, he even argues that the towel boy was better because we won a SB that year.

 

[patsinthesnow]

BJGE: 3.7YPC
Maroney: 4.2YPC

BJGE: Rookie Year

Person throwing the ball
BJGE: Cassel
Maroney: Brady

SHUT UP DAMNIT!

 

[BradyFTW!]

BJGE: 3.7YPC
Maroney: 4.2YPC

BJGE: Rookie Year

Person throwing the ball
BJGE: Cassel
Maroney: Brady

SHUT UP DAMNIT!

Success rate and DVOA correct for situational variations, and both still have Maroney ranked as a far, far better RB.

 

[RayClay]

Now you didnt say what you have spend a whole thread arguing about?

So Maroney is the reason we lost the SB?
And if we had Antowain Smith we would have won? Is that truly your argument?
Are you honestly trying to say that your proof that your negative opinion of Maroney is correct is that we lost one game in 2007?

There are a few things that could have turned that around. Our defense near the end could have been better.

The greatest high flying offense ever? Not in that game, it was very tough going and their pass rush was just gaining confidence.

I'll put it this way, we managed to derail at least two of the top passing offenses in the Rams and Colts. Our strategy? Stuff the run, make them one dimensional. Knowing they had to pass gave us all sorts of advantages in turnovers and rushing.

Could we have hit a big pass, made a big play on D in thew bowl? Sure.

I do believe that establishing the run would let us throw the rhythm of the rush off, beat on the pass rushers and force them to play the run opening up passing opportunities.

Pretty basic football.

 

[BradyFTW!]

There are a few things that could have turned that around. Our defense near the end could have been better.

The greatest high flying offense ever? Not in that game, it was very tough going and their pass rush was just gaining confidence.

I'll put it this way, we managed to derail at least two of the top passing offenses in the Rams and Colts. Our strategy? Stuff the run, make them one dimensional. Knowing they had to pass gave us all sorts of advantages in turnovers and rushing.

Could we have hit a big pass, made a big play on D in thew bowl? Sure.

I do believe that establishing the run would let us throw the rhythm of the rush off, beat on the pass rushers and force them to play the run opening up passing opportunities.

Pretty basic football.

So you're arguing that the reason why we were unable to establish the run was because of Maroney? Because that's wrong on a number of different levels. The OL was atrocious that day, and it showed in every facet of the game. Maroney, OTOH, was probably our playoff MVP up to that point, but wasn't able to get anything going behind what was, on that day, an absolutely putrid line.

 

[RayClay]

This is what we call biased statistics, everyone. First off, nobody's going to run the ball four straight times, so your distinction of "3 yards gets it done because it gets a first down" is pointless and, in practice, incorrect. In reality, if you run it three straight times for 3 yards, you punt the ball.

Rushes rarely lose more than 2 yards, so that answers your question for how many yards lost.

All that you're doing by making the "positive yardage, up to 5 yards" distinction is punishing Maroney for the fact that, where GE tends to go down after 2-4 yards, Maroney is far more able to grind an extra 2 or 3 yards out of the same carries. You're counting a 5 yard carry as a 'good' result, and a 6 yard carry as a 'bad' result, which is so fundamentally wrong that I'm kinda shocked that this requires explanation. It's a falsely negative result, and an obviously biased attempt to skew numbers. In short, you're showing your complete ignorance of statistical analysis.

I said it before, and I'll say it again: they get stuffed almost exactly as often, and go for 10+ almost exactly as often. The only difference is that on intermediate carries, Maroney is able to grind out more yards. You're wrong, and it's kinda sad that your ego is so fragile that you can't just grow up, accept it, and learn something from this thread.



Nope, you never said anything of the sort.

OK, I said it. Maroney gets thrown for a loss 3 to 4 times as much.

 

[BradyFTW!]

OK, I said it. Maroney gets thrown for a loss 3 to 4 times as much.

First off, 66 carries is way too small of a sample size to evaluate % of lost yardage, since that happens so infrequently anyways. If two of his carries that went for no gain go for -1 yard, you don't even have a pretend point to try to make. Instead, you've decided to ignore basic statistics, detailed breakdowns, and advanced, situation-adjust stats just to prop up your bias.

To break down numbers down to the individual yard level, you need a larger sample size than BJGE has (note: BJGE has such a small sample because as soon as any of our top 3 RBs were healthy, he didn't take another meaningful snap for the rest of the season. Shows how much BB liked him...)

Having run the numbers on quite a few RBs, I can say pretty conclusively that BJGE's negative yardage count is an anomaly based on a tiny sample size. Born out of the fact that he ran almost exclusively against bad front sevens, and even then luck played significantly into the fact that he got stopped for no gain very frequently, but very rarely for negative yardage.

Feel free to keep making an ass of yourself, though. At this point, you've exposed yourself for what you are, and anyone who takes you seriously is as ignorant as you are. Have fun having no idea what you're talking about.

 

[patsinthesnow]

First off, 66 carries is way too small of a sample size to evaluate % of lost yardage, since that happens so infrequently anyways. If two of his carries that went for no gain go for -1 yard, you don't even have a pretend point to try to make. Instead, you've decided to ignore basic statistics, detailed breakdowns, and advanced, situation-adjust stats just to prop up your bias.

To break down numbers down to the individual yard level, you need a larger sample size than BJGE has (note: BJGE has such a small sample because as soon as any of our top 3 RBs were healthy, he didn't take another meaningful snap for the rest of the season. Shows how much BB liked him...)

Having run the numbers on quite a few RBs, I can say pretty conclusively that BJGE's negative yardage count is an anomaly based on a tiny sample size. Born out of the fact that he ran almost exclusively against bad front sevens, and even then luck played significantly into the fact that he got stopped for no gain very frequently, but very rarely for negative yardage.

Feel free to keep making an ass of yourself, though. At this point, you've exposed yourself for what you are, and anyone who takes you seriously is as ignorant as you are. Have fun having no idea what you're talking about.

99 75%
33 25% The people have voted, and they believe it is time for a change!

 

[RayClay]

Feel free to keep making an ass of yourself, though. At this point, you've exposed yourself for what you are, and anyone who takes you seriously is as ignorant as you are. Have fun having no idea what you're talking about.

People that argue a good case don't feel the need to belittle themselves by acting like children. Why not take your Koolaid Doll and go home now.

Amazing how few threads there are about the line being unable to block for Morris, or even for Lamont Jordan.

 

[BradyFTW!]

99 75%
33 25% The people have voted, and they believe it is time for a change!

Luckily, the people don't get a say. All that that tells me is that 75% of Pats fans are operating off of assumptions and anecdotal evidence. Luckily, Belichick doesn't.

People that argue a good case don't feel the need to belittle themselves by acting like children. Why not take your Koolaid Doll and go home now.

Amazing how few threads there are about the line being unable to block for Morris, or even for Lamont Jordan.

Morris loses yardage almost exactly as often as Maroney does.

Frankly, you can skew my numbers all you want. If you go into statistical analysis with the explicit purpose of making the numbers say that BJGE is better, and have no objective parameters whatsoever to work off of, then you might actually find a way to pull it off, even though the end result will be a comparison that tells you nothing.

Regardless, DVOA and success rate are objective statistics. The guy that came up with them (Schatz) had no vested interest in this debate. Hell, he came up with the formula before Maroney and BJGE were even playing in the NFL. All that mattered to him was coming up with a statistic that would accurately convey how good a RB was at accomplishing his goal on a given snap, and he's widely regarded as having done a better job of this than anyone else, as far as publicly available stats go (man, what I wouldn't give to see what stats the Patriots track behind closed doors... *drool*).

Anyways, this objective analysis concluded that Maroney is a very, very good running back. So when I argue these points, it's most definitely not because I have a problem with BJGE or don't want him to succeed- it's because it bugs me that so many fans completely fail to recognize that we already have a very good running back.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Luckily, the people don't get a say. All that that tells me is that 75% of Pats fans are operating off of assumptions and anecdotal evidence. Luckily, Belichick doesn't.



Morris loses yardage almost exactly as often as Maroney does.

Do you not want BJGE to succeed?

Green-Ellis would be a kickass jersey

 

[BradyFTW!]

Do you not want BJGE to succeed?

Green-Ellis would be a kickass jersey

I like BJGE a lot, actually. Wherever he ends up, I do hope that he succeeds. I like his style, his backstory, and underdogs in general, and I think that he performed admirably for us last year. And I do think that there's a good chance that he makes the roster; if Sammy Morris is hurt badly, Belichick might carry a 5th RB, or might IR Morris and make BJGE the fourth.

The thing about RB, though, is it's the ultimate plug and play position. Why do rookie RBs explode onto the scene every year? Because it's about the least nuanced position in the game, and requires very little system-specific education before you can step in an execute. BJGE isn't siginficantly more talented than a practice squadder, and because he's a RB his experience in the system isn't nearly as valuable as it would be at another position.

So, as much as I like BJGE, I like what other candidates for the 53rd spot bring to the table more. IMO, Crable, Ohrnberger, Wendell, Slater, Lenon, Ninkovich, and Alexander all offer harder-to-replace production to the Pats than BJGE does, because it's harder to find someone who can step in and play their positions effectively right away.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, more fun with numbers, since some people can't just admit what's been shown time and time again... and let it be noted that I have no intention of going into a play-by-play for each carry of each career. A game-by-game breakdown is as far as I go.

Smith was with the team from 2001-2003. In that time he played 51 games for the team.

2001: 16 regular season, 3 playoffs, 19 total

5 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of 4+ yards per carry

2002: 16 regular season games

2 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of4+ yards per carry

3003: 13 regular season games, 3 playoffs, 16 total

6 games of 3 yards or less per carry
4 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
6 games of 4+ yards per carry

51 total games. Math is rounded

13 (25%) averaged 3 ypc or less per carry
16 (31%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
22 (43%) averaged 4+ yards per carry

That's a total of 57% of games averaging 4 ypc or less per carry

Maroney has played 36 games for the Patriots

2006: 14 regular season, 3 playoff, 17 total

5 games of 3 yards or less per carry
4 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of 4+ yards per carry

2007: 13 regular season, 3 playoff, 16 total

3 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
7 games of 4+ yards per carry

2008: 3 regular season, 3 total

2 games of 3 yards or less per carry
0 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
1 game of 4+ yards per carry

36 games total. Math is rounded
10 (28%) averaged 3 ypc or less per carry
10 (28%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
26 (44%) averaged 4+ yards per carry

That's a total of 56% of games averaging 4 yards or less per carry. And, if you don't count the 2 games with the broken shoulder in 2008.....

8 of 34 (24%) averaged 3 yards per carry or less
10 of 34 (29%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
16 of 34 (47%) averaged 4+ yards per carry
18 of 34 (53%) averaged 4 yards or less per carry.


In other words, Maroney and Smith have just about the same breakdown over the course of their Patriots careers when it comes to games averaging under 3 yards per carry, games averaging 3+ - 4 yards per carry, and games averaging 4+ yards per carry.

So, AGAIN....... Smith?

 

[patsinthesnow]

Rushing yards 1,550
Average 3.7
Rushing Touchdowns 12

Can you say Reggie Bush and BJGE have equal talent at RUNNING the football?

 

[RayClay]

Ok, more fun with numbers, since some people can't just admit what's been shown time and time again... and let it be noted that I have no intention of going into a play-by-play for each carry of each career. A game-by-game breakdown is as far as I go.

Smith was with the team from 2001-2003. In that time he played 51 games for the team.

2001: 16 regular season, 3 playoffs, 19 total

5 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of 4+ yards per carry

2002: 16 regular season games

2 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of4+ yards per carry

3003: 13 regular season games, 3 playoffs, 16 total

6 games of 3 yards or less per carry
4 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
6 games of 4+ yards per carry

51 total games. Math is rounded

13 (25%) averaged 3 ypc or less per carry
16 (31%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
22 (43%) averaged 4+ yards per carry

That's a total of 57% of games averaging 4 ypc or less per carry

Maroney has played 36 games for the Patriots

2006: 14 regular season, 3 playoff, 17 total

5 games of 3 yards or less per carry
4 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
8 games of 4+ yards per carry

2007: 13 regular season, 3 playoff, 16 total

3 games of 3 yards or less per carry
6 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
7 games of 4+ yards per carry

2008: 3 regular season, 3 total

2 games of 3 yards or less per carry
0 games of 3+ - 4 yards per carry
1 game of 4+ yards per carry

36 games total. Math is rounded
10 (28%) averaged 3 ypc or less per carry
10 (28%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
26 (44%) averaged 4+ yards per carry

That's a total of 56% of games averaging 4 yards or less per carry. And, if you don't count the 2 games with the broken shoulder in 2008.....

8 of 34 (24%) averaged 3 yards per carry or less
10 of 34 (29%) averaged 3+ - 4 yards per carry
16 of 34 (47%) averaged 4+ yards per carry
18 of 34 (53%) averaged 4 yards or less per carry.


In other words, Maroney and Smith have just about the same breakdown over the course of their Patriots careers when it comes to games averaging under 3 yards per carry, games averaging 3+ - 4 yards per carry, and games averaging 4+ yards per carry.

So, AGAIN....... Smith?

You do not understand the point I was making. I'd be happy to explain it if you get off the attack anyone who harms my binkie mode.

Hint, it has nothing to do with the relative talent of Smith and Maroney, Smith was a jag.

It does have a bit to do with the merits of a short yardage type runner in a passing offense.