Patriots are currently favored in every regular season game

[PatsBoy12]

Now last off-season, after the way it ended. That took forever.

Then to have Brady knocked out less than 20 minutes into the season.

Yup, especially since I wasn't able to watch any other sport or listen to anything sports-related for almost five months after the loss out of pure devastation.

 

[Metaphors]

Hello to 19-0 season......

So you think Vollmer will be able to hold off Mario Williams and give O'Connell enough time to throw to Tate? Because if the Pats have clinched the #1 seed, that is what you will see in week 16. The novelty of a perfect regular season is sooooooooo 2007...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

So you think Vollmer will be able to hold off Mario Williams and give O'Connell enough time to throw to Tate? Because if the Pats have clinched the #1 seed, that is what you will see in week 16. The novelty of a perfect regular season is sooooooooo 2007...

I would kill to see just that scenario

 

[glm]

So you think Vollmer will be able to hold off Mario Williams and give O'Connell enough time to throw to Tate? Because if the Pats have clinched the #1 seed, that is what you will see in week 16. The novelty of a perfect regular season is sooooooooo 2007...

That gave me the giggles.

 

[Deus Irae]

So you think Vollmer will be able to hold off Mario Williams and give O'Connell enough time to throw to Tate? Because if the Pats have clinched the #1 seed, that is what you will see in week 16. The novelty of a perfect regular season is sooooooooo 2007...

Interesting. If the Patriots are 15-0 going into the last week of the season, I expect them to try to put up 100 points, and to keep all the starters in the game. The chance to wash out the taste of 18-1 would be a dominant theme by then, I would imagine.

 

[Aldogg]

If they go 15-0 and go to Houston, we will make sure we have the game in hand before pulling people. Plus one thing we should know is shutting it down the last week of the season can do more harm than good, look at Indy all those times, Tampa a few years ago and others.

 

[AzPatsFan]

That Vegas line and five bucks will buy you a cup of Starbuck's Java...

 

[Feep50]

That Vegas line and five bucks will buy you a cup of Starbuck's Java...

Second this.............. This line means next to nothing.

 

[mesoslo]

If the vegas line says the patriots are favourites in every game, well then, there is method to their madness.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Second this.............. This line means next to nothing.

Yup. I said that way back on the first or second page. I could care less what that line says.

 

[ausbacker]

So you think Vollmer will be able to hold off Mario Williams and give O'Connell enough time to throw to Tate? Because if the Pats have clinched the #1 seed, that is what you will see in week 16. The novelty of a perfect regular season is sooooooooo 2007...

I'd expect to see Lord Vollmermort rip off Super Mario's head in all honesty.

 

[SoCal Bong]

Second this.............. This line means next to nothing.

I'd happily take every favorite straight up (no spread) for every game this season if there are any takers. NFL faves win somewhere in the ballpark of 60% of the time. If you take favorites of a TD or more, it obviously goes up significantly higher. Point being, it does mean something.

 

[Feep50]

I'd happily take every favorite straight up (no spread) for every game this season if there are any takers. NFL faves win somewhere in the ballpark of 60% of the time. If you take favorites of a TD or more, it obviously goes up significantly higher. Point being, it does mean something.

Your point is well taken by me...... Insofar as no games will be played for 2+ months it is meaningless until then. Injuries to key players do occur, right? Vegas telling me that the Patriots are favored in every game right now means as much as my evil brother telling me I was adopted! Whatever that's worth!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I was in Vegas over the weekend and found that the M Resort has point spreads for every regular season NFL game that you can wager on right now.
....

Pats are favored by at least a TD in over half the games. The Colts and Steelers are dogs in at least one game each so the Pats MAY be the only team favored all season long but I haven't had a chance to review it thoroughly enough to say that any certainty yet.

wow, great. now if we could just play the whole season on paper and pick up the Lombardi without the annoyance of training camp and bad weather and lousy calls by officials and fumbles and INT's and freak plays and........

 

[SoCal Bong]

Of course the point spread doesn't dictate the results, but if you had to wager your entire net worth on who would have a winning season, would you take the Lions or Pats?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Of course the point spread doesn't dictate the results, but if you had to wager your entire net worth on who would have a winning season, would you take the Lions or Pats?

everyone's risk profile is different.

as you word it, for me, the answer is unclear.

is it a push if both have a winning season? so, in that case, why should i take the risk to begin with?

or do i lose if the lions somehow win 9 games even if the pats win 16?

or is the bet which will win more games?

under the latter two conditions, i probably wouldn't take the bet with those stakes without differentiated odds that make taking the differentiated risks rational. For a grand, sure, but not for the stakes you name, at least for me.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

In this day and age where a team can really improve or fall apart in one season because of FA it's really hard to say how good a team is before the preseason.

How many teams that were 1-15 or 3-13 etc have came back the next year and had a winning season? I know the Dolphins did it last year and the Colts did it in 92. The Jets went 9-7 after going 1-15. Those are the only ones I'm sure of but there may have been others.

And other teams have came close, the 90 Cowboys were 7-7 (if I remember right) before losing their last two coming off a 1-15 season. The Panthers went 7-9 after going 1-15 a few years back.

Anyway, my point is the NFL changes from year to year. As someone else pointed out spreads don't really mean much until a team has played a few games and even then they are often wildly wrong.

Look at the 2001 SB Pats VS Rams. Rams huge favorites, but Pats won. Look at 2007 SB Pats VS Giants, Pats huge favorite Giants win.

Gambling and spreads are for fools IMO. There's a reason casinos and gambling are everywhere these days and it isn't because the house is losing.

 

[Deus Irae]

In this day and age where a team can really improve or fall apart in one season because of FA it's really hard to say how good a team is before the preseason.

How many teams that were 1-15 or 3-13 etc have came back the next year and had a winning season? I know the Dolphins did it last year and the Colts did it in 92. The Jets went 9-7 after going 1-15. Those are the only ones I'm sure of but there may have been others.

And other teams have came close, the 90 Cowboys were 7-7 (if I remember right) before losing their last two coming off a 1-15 season. The Panthers went 7-9 after going 1-15 a few years back.

Anyway, my point is the NFL changes from year to year. As someone else pointed out spreads don't really mean much until a team has played a few games and even then they are often wildly wrong.

Look at the 2001 SB Pats VS Rams. Rams huge favorites, but Pats won. Look at 2007 SB Pats VS Giants, Pats huge favorite Giants win.

Gambling and spreads are for fools IMO. There's a reason casinos and gambling are everywhere these days and it isn't because the house is losing.

Casinos aren't point spreads.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

Casinos aren't point spreads.

No, but they do appeal to the same base beliefs and instincts in gamblers. My point, like I said, is gambling and point spreads are for fools.

Spreads are just there to get the sides even on betting so bookies will make money. I've seen people around here crowing about the fact that the Pats are the favorite to win the SB, which is down to gamblers.

But who is number 2? The Cowboys. Does anyone here really believe the Cowboys are the second best team in the league?

The point is, these things don't mean anything except to gamblers.

 

[Deus Irae]

No, but they do appeal to the same base beliefs and instincts in gamblers. My point, like I said, is gambling and point spreads are for fools.

Spreads are just there to get the sides even on betting so bookies will make money. I've seen people around here crowing about the fact that the Pats are the favorite to win the SB, which is down to gamblers.

But who is number 2? The Cowboys. Does anyone here really believe the Cowboys are the second best team in the league?

The point is, these things don't mean anything except to gamblers.

The point is, the point spreads are historically reliable means of assessing probabilities. They aren't infallible, and nobody has ever claimed they were, to the best of my knowledge.

Here's an example of how using the odds properly can both help in your assessments and make you some money:

Playing longshots at the Breeders’ Cup this weekend? ESPN’s Ed McNamara asks you to take a deep breath and think twice:

Year after year, favorites win 30 to 33 percent of all races run in North America. The chalk has done even better on the 21 runnings of racing’s championship day, taking 57 of 153 races (37.8 percent), or three of every eight. Of course, that means five of every eight post-time favorites lose.

Breeders' Cup: How Often Do The Favorites Win? - Oddjack

Vegas is another valuable information source. It may be no more than that, but it's certainly no less than that.