Chiefs getting cold feet with Matt Cassel?

[Jimke]

If Cassel has a good year, the Chiefs can franchise him again and

perhaps acquire a #1 pick for him since he will have proven himself

two years in a row.

 

[NEPatriot]

At some points, Scot will tell Cassel to take less money because TB doesn't have a big salary. If Cassel doesn't like it, he is gone.

 

[mgteich]

I thought that Cassel had signed his $6M a year six-year deal, but I was wrong. Of course, the 6-year deal would have made sense. KC would have gotten what they paid for, having signed their intended long-term QB solution. However, that's not what happened.

As one poster said, no big deal!. After all, KC gave up the #34 to pay Cassel over $14M for a one-year tryout. And he may not even start. ROFL!

Cassel is laughing all the way to the bank. After the season, Cassel can look around the league for a place to play after pocketing the $10M (after taxes) that will provide for his future, that of his children and his grandchildren.

Perhaps KC should trade their next year's second for the loser of the Cleveland QB decision. LOL

 

[PYPER]

Pioli, like Belichick, gives the media nothing so this entire piece is based on Whitlock's speculation. It should also be noted that Whitlock isn't the sharpest guy around. He gets lost in leftfield quite often.

For Cassel I think a one year 14M deal is better than a six year 36M deal. He'd be a free agent again next year with 14M already in the bank and the franchise tag would be worth another $17M so he'd have all the leverage. If he were to sign that 6 year deal next year it would essentially be a 7 year deal worth $50M. The risk of course is that he gets hurt or struggles so bad that nobody wants him.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think anyone was thinking of $6M a year for a six year extension, rather $6M a year including the $14M.

So, after a year at $14M, Cassel would need a 5 year $22M contract to break even with what he may have been offered. That kind of contract is not unreasonable, presuming that he isn't injured and is only mediocre for this bad team. There may be teams willing to pay $22M for 5 years to a player who has started for two years.

And just BTW, this time Cassel can be in control of where he goes, unless Pioli is foolish enough to offer him $17M for 2010, much better than $22M over five years.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I don't think anyone was thinking of $6M a year for a six year extension, rather $6M a year including the $14M.

So, after a year at $14M, Cassel would need a 5 year $22M contract to break even with what he may have been offered. That kind of contract is not unreasonable, presuming that he isn't injured and is only mediocre for this bad team. There may be teams willing to pay $22M for 5 years to a player who has started for two years.

And just BTW, this time Cassel can be in control of where he goes, unless Pioli is foolish enough to offer him $17M for 2010, much better than $22M over five years.

For Cassel having control is huge, but if he does leave after one season, what if anything does that say about Pioli?

 

[mgteich]

Pioli had lots of extra 2009 cap money. Pioli made a decision not to worry about the QB position this year. As I have said from the beginning, I am ecstatic at what we got for Cassel and when we got it. Cassel isn't worth $14M and the #34 draft choice for one year of service. I don't think the choice is close. But, if there is so much cap money in KC that it makes no difference, then MAYBE it's worth renting Cassel for the #34 pick adn $14M. I didn't see then, I don't see it now.

BTW, I have the same view regarding Peppers. He wasn't worth the #34 pick in order to pay him $14M for one year of service.

We are NOT discussing situations where players agree to contract renegotiations. We are discussing trading franchised players who are owed $14M for this year, an amount that they will receive this year or as part of a package.

KC is in a better situation than Carolina, who decided to kill their offseason by keeping Peppers.

For Cassel having control is huge, but if he does leave after one season, what if anything does that say about Pioli?

 

[Rob0729]

I don't think anyone was thinking of $6M a year for a six year extension, rather $6M a year including the $14M.

So, after a year at $14M, Cassel would need a 5 year $22M contract to break even with what he may have been offered. That kind of contract is not unreasonable, presuming that he isn't injured and is only mediocre for this bad team. There may be teams willing to pay $22M for 5 years to a player who has started for two years.

And just BTW, this time Cassel can be in control of where he goes, unless Pioli is foolish enough to offer him $17M for 2010, much better than $22M over five years.

You are making the assumption that after next season someone will pay him $22 over 5 years. Even if Cassel is a very good QB and not a product of the Patriots, he is going to have a real tough time putting up good numbers in KC. His receiving corp consists of Dwayne Bowe, an aged Bobby Engram, and a bunch of JAGs and sub-JAGs. The running game has been inconsistent at best with Larry Johnson becoming injury prone and inconsistent. If Cassel has a Derek Anderson decline after a breakout year, He may be looking at a contract worth $3-4 million a year for only two to three years.

I disagree that teams will offer him a 5 year deal for $22 million if he has a mediocre year. The reason why teams weren't really all that interested in him in the first place was because they felt he was a product of the talent and system of the Patriots (most detractors pointed out how the Pats led the league in YAC by a significant margin). A mediocre year in KC will only enforce that belief. I think in that situation, unless McDaniels still really wants him, he will get a modest short term deal to compete with another QB for the starting position. No team is going to invest in a five year deal for a QB going into his six season with only one good year and many people not sure if it was the talent around him or his talent himself.

I think Cassel is in a very dangerous situation here. If he performs, he will make far more than he would if he got a long term now. But if he is mediocre, he could lose upwards to $8-10 million, maybe more. If he didn't sign his tender offer, he probably could have gotten $25 million guaranteed in a long term deal this offseason (if Delhome can get $22 million, it isn't unreasonable to expect a younger more durable Cassel would get more). He could be playing in 2010 for $2-3 million a year or even less in a very short term deal if he has a bad season in 2009.

Both sides are gambling here, but I think you are far too optimist about Cassel's downside.

 

[Rob0729]

If Cassel has a good year, the Chiefs can franchise him again and

perhaps acquire a #1 pick for him since he will have proven himself

two years in a row.

If there is an uncapped year, they can make him an RFA which might be slightly less of a tender offer (a 20% pay increase opposed to the average of the top 5 QBs which might be higher) and make it easier for another team to acquire him because they could use a first and third tender, a first tender, or a second tender.

I do agree that if Cassel has a great year, the Chiefs are in a good position. Doubtful Cassel will sign his tender again when he knows he can get far more money in a long term deal and the Chiefs or whoever he gets traded to might let him play again for the tender. At worst, the Chiefs sign Cassel to the long term deal they could have signed him to this year and cost them more money (although they are way under the cap this year anyway).

 

[mgteich]

You think that teams will be lining up to give KC a pick in order to pay Cassel $17M for one year of service?

If there is an uncapped year, they can make him an RFA which might be slightly less of a tender offer (a 20% pay increase opposed to the average of the top 5 QBs which might be higher) and make it easier for another team to acquire him because they could use a first and third tender, a first tender, or a second tender.

I do agree that if Cassel has a great year, the Chiefs are in a good position. Doubtful Cassel will sign his tender again when he knows he can get far more money in a long term deal and the Chiefs or whoever he gets traded to might let him play again for the tender. At worst, the Chiefs sign Cassel to the long term deal they could have signed him to this year and cost them more money (although they are way under the cap this year anyway).

 

[Deus Irae]

You think that teams will be lining up to give KC a pick in order to pay Cassel $17M for one year of service?

That will depend on how well he plays, don't you think?

 

[mgteich]

There is no evidence that Cassel was offered $25M guaranteed by anyone. MAYBE the chiefs offered him that because they were already in for $14M and a draft choice. And maybe they didn't. I suspect that they offered an extension with most of th aditional bonus as an option. In any case, this is pure specualtion.

You presume that Cassel is worth more than Delhome on the open market. Maybe, and maybe not. In any case, that was not the situation. A team needed to give up a pick in order to sign Cassel for $14M for 2009 and then get him to sign a the presumed $36M contract with $25M upfront.
========================
If you asking whether I think Cassel should have taken an additional $11M of bonus money payable now for a 6 year contract, I'd say sure. But that presumes that either he isn't worth the money so he should grab it (likely the case) or that he may be later and then sit out for a new contract in a couple of years.

In either case, a team would be out $25M plus say $2M-$3M a year of salary for three years. Paying Cassel that kind of money ($10M a year for the first 3 years) for Cassel would speak volumes about Pioli.

You are making the assumption that after next season someone will pay him $22 over 5 years. Even if Cassel is a very good QB and not a product of the Patriots, he is going to have a real tough time putting up good numbers in KC. His receiving corp consists of Dwayne Bowe, an aged Bobby Engram, and a bunch of JAGs and sub-JAGs. The running game has been inconsistent at best with Larry Johnson becoming injury prone and inconsistent. If Cassel has a Derek Anderson decline after a breakout year, He may be looking at a contract worth $3-4 million a year for only two to three years.

I disagree that teams will offer him a 5 year deal for $22 million if he has a mediocre year. The reason why teams weren't really all that interested in him in the first place was because they felt he was a product of the talent and system of the Patriots (most detractors pointed out how the Pats led the league in YAC by a significant margin). A mediocre year in KC will only enforce that belief. I think in that situation, unless McDaniels still really wants him, he will get a modest short term deal to compete with another QB for the starting position. No team is going to invest in a five year deal for a QB going into his six season with only one good year and many people not sure if it was the talent around him or his talent himself.

I think Cassel is in a very dangerous situation here. If he performs, he will make far more than he would if he got a long term now. But if he is mediocre, he could lose upwards to $8-10 million, maybe more. If he didn't sign his tender offer, he probably could have gotten $25 million guaranteed in a long term deal this offseason (if Delhome can get $22 million, it isn't unreasonable to expect a younger more durable Cassel would get more). He could be playing in 2010 for $2-3 million a year or even less in a very short term deal if he has a bad season in 2009.

Both sides are gambling here, but I think you are far too optimist about Cassel's downside.

 

[spacecrime]

I think Cassel is in a very dangerous situation here. If he performs, he will make far more than he would if he got a long term now. But if he is mediocre, he could lose upwards to $8-10 million, maybe more. If he didn't sign his tender offer, he probably could have gotten $25 million guaranteed in a long term deal this offseason

Doubtful Cassel will sign his tender again

These two posts don't make sense to me.

So he could have gotten $25 mil by not signing the first.

Yet he got $14 already, and if he signs his tender again will get $31 mil over 2 years. why would he NOT sign again if tendered.

The thing about signing a tender is you get a boatload of money right now, and STILL get to be a FA next year or get a 120% of a boatload again.

It may be fashionable to say that Cassel did well only because of Moss but how well did the Raider QBs do with Moss? And unlike mediots, team front offices will look at tape, not fantasy football points, YAC, etc etc. It will be apparent to them if Cassel is making the right reads and throwing accurately or not.

As far as ESPN and casual fans go, if Cassel makes a few highlight reel passes and wins a game dramatically, they will be touting him from the rooftops. If he is steady but with no highlight reel passes, they will be down on him. Coaches will be more objective in determining if he is a good QB or not, and they should be able to tell that by looking at his reads and throws, not by how many YAC his receivers got or didn't get.

If is decent, he'll get money easily. Medicore QBs make $4 mil year. A decent QB will make much more.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that any QB not named Brady or Manning is worth $17M for one year plus a pick or two, and I'm not sure of them.

That will depend on how well he plays, don't you think?

 

[mgteich]

Of course Cassel would sign again. He pocketed $14M the first time. $17M the second time is good money if you can get it.

These two posts don't make sense to me.

So he could have gotten $25 mil by not signing the first.

Yet he got $14 already, and if he signs his tender again will get $31 mil over 2 years. why would he NOT sign again if tendered.

The thing about signing a tender is you get a boatload of money right now, and STILL get to be a FA next year or get a 120% of a boatload again.

It may be fashionable to say that Cassel did well only because of Moss but how well did the Raider QBs do with Moss? And unlike mediots, team front offices will look at tape, not fantasy football points, YAC, etc etc. It will be apparent to them if Cassel is making the right reads and throwing accurately or not.

As far as ESPN and casual fans go, if Cassel makes a few highlight reel passes and wins a game dramatically, they will be touting him from the rooftops. If he is steady but with no highlight reel passes, they will be down on him. Coaches will be more objective in determining if he is a good QB or not, and they should be able to tell that by looking at his reads and throws, not by how many YAC his receivers got or didn't get.

If is decent, he'll get money easily. Medicore QBs make $4 mil year. A decent QB will make much more.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think that any QB not named Brady or Manning is worth $17M for one year plus a pick or two, and I'm not sure of them.

Well, I think history has proven that teams are more than willing to work out deals with players in demand. Cassel was an unusual case, as I'm sure you realize.

And if a healthy Brady were on the market and only costing 2 firsts and a contract, about 30 teams in the NFL would be taking a long, hard look at making that deal.

 

[mgteich]

We are not discussing "and a contract". We are discussing teams willing to trade for a player who will cost $17M for one year's play. Besides I excluded anyone named Brady or Manning.

If a team could have gotten "and a contract", the patriots would have gotten more than a #34 pick.

Well, I think history has proven that teams are more than willing to work out deals with players in demand. Cassel was an unusual case, as I'm sure you realize.

And if a healthy Brady were on the market and only costing 2 firsts and a contract, about 30 teams in the NFL would be taking a long, hard look at making that deal.

 

[Deus Irae]

We are not discussing "and a contract". We are discussing teams willing to trade for a player who will cost $17M for one year's play. Besides I excluded anyone named Brady or Manning.

If a team could have gotten "and a contract", the patriots would have gotten more than a #34 pick.

According to reports, they might have gotten more anyway, so let's not go down that road. The fact is that, if Cassel played another excellent season and then was available to other teams via the franchise/trade or trade routes, their would likely be teams that were interested enough to make the offer.

As for the Brady thing, you added your "I'm not sure of them", which is why I posted about it. Outside of their opposite's (Patriots/Colts) team, I can't think of any team in the league that wouldn't either make the deal or at least agonize over finding a way to make it work.

 

[mgteich]

Then we agree to disagree.

You believe that there are lots of teams outside of the colts and the patriots that would be interested in offering at least #34 and $17M for a one-year contract for Cassel if he has another good year.

I strongly disagree.

According to reports, they might have gotten more anyway, so let's not go down that road. The fact is that, if Cassel played another excellent season and then was available to other teams via the franchise/trade or trade routes, their would likely be teams that were interested enough to make the offer.

As for the Brady thing, you added your "I'm not sure of them", which is why I posted about it. Outside of their opposite's (Patriots/Colts) team, I can't think of any team in the league that wouldn't either make the deal or at least agonize over finding a way to make it work.

 

[Deus Irae]

Then we agree to disagree.

You believe that there are lots of teams outside of the colts and the patriots that would be interested in offering at least #34 and $17M for a one-year contract for Cassel if he has another good year.

I strongly disagree.

I believe that you are making far too much out of the $17 million aspect, since it would become a multi-year deal for any team willing to make the move. Cassel either has a 'gentlemen's agreement' with Pioli about a contract or, far more likely, he's learned a hard lesson about why you don't rush to sign the franchise tag unless you're in a panic that the team will rescind it.

Either way, I don't see him having a good enough season to be franchised again and then signing any deal without a long-term contract being involved. Unlike this year, where the "but look at what he had around him" argument probably suppressed the market for him, Cassel will have a boatload of suitors if he plays well enough to be tagged again after this season, and that means he'd be the beneficiary of a bidding war.