Chiefs getting cold feet with Matt Cassel?

[mgteich]

People told me that I was making way, way too much out of the $14M this year. The $14M was the reason that their was only one bidder that would give us as high as a #34 with no future contract agreed to. I didn't even want us to franchise him, unless it was to be withdrawn within a week of the starting of free agency, since I didn't expect any bidders. I was wrong. Belichick had a sucker, I mean bidder, all lined up.

The one year amount is the reason that Peppers is still playing for Carolina.

But it really doesn't matter. Pioli won't franchise Cassel again.

I believe that you are making far too much out of the $17 million aspect, since it would become a multi-year deal for any team willing to make the move. Cassel either has a 'gentlemen's agreement' with Pioli about a contract or, far more likely, he's learned a hard lesson about why you don't rush to sign the franchise tag unless you're in a panic that the team will rescind it.

Either way, I don't see him having a good enough season to be franchised again and then signing any deal without a long-term contract being involved. Unlike this year, where the "but look at what he had around him" argument probably suppressed the market for him, Cassel will have a boatload of suitors if he plays well enough to be tagged again after this season, and that means he'd be the beneficiary of a bidding war.

 

[Rob0729]

These two posts don't make sense to me.

So he could have gotten $25 mil by not signing the first.

Yet he got $14 already, and if he signs his tender again will get $31 mil over 2 years. why would he NOT sign again if tendered.

The thing about signing a tender is you get a boatload of money right now, and STILL get to be a FA next year or get a 120% of a boatload again.

It may be fashionable to say that Cassel did well only because of Moss but how well did the Raider QBs do with Moss? And unlike mediots, team front offices will look at tape, not fantasy football points, YAC, etc etc. It will be apparent to them if Cassel is making the right reads and throwing accurately or not.

As far as ESPN and casual fans go, if Cassel makes a few highlight reel passes and wins a game dramatically, they will be touting him from the rooftops. If he is steady but with no highlight reel passes, they will be down on him. Coaches will be more objective in determining if he is a good QB or not, and they should be able to tell that by looking at his reads and throws, not by how many YAC his receivers got or didn't get.

If is decent, he'll get money easily. Medicore QBs make $4 mil year. A decent QB will make much more.

It makes sense to me. The only way the Chiefs franchise him is if he has a great year. If he has a great year with the Chiefs, people will not be doubtful whether he was a product of the Pats system and think he is legit. That means he will get the big money like $30 plus millions in guarantees. Why would he settle for $17 million when he is actually a hot commodity unlike this offseason.

As for doubts, it wasn't just the talking heads. Word was most GMs were scared of him being a product of a system and the talent around him. Hence why all these teams that were falling over themselves for Jay Cutler (the Bears, Redskins, Bucs, and eventhough they didn't try for him because there was no shot they could get the Pats to trade Cassel to him the Jets) didn't make a play for Cassel.

 

[Rob0729]

You think that teams will be lining up to give KC a pick in order to pay Cassel $17M for one year of service?

If there is an uncapped year, why not. Since he will be a RFA next year in that scenario, he would have two more years of franchises after that. I was laughed at when I said that there was a possibility he would get traded without a long term deal this year. Besides, if the Chiefs are willing to have Cassel this year with a one year $14 million deal, why is it so crazy that a team might role the dice on trading for him with out a deal for $3 million more in hopes that he realizes he is faced with another year of an uncertain future and might take a discount to get a long term deal done especially if he is looking at $25 plus million in guarantees.

 

[Rob0729]

There is no evidence that Cassel was offered $25M guaranteed by anyone. MAYBE the chiefs offered him that because they were already in for $14M and a draft choice. And maybe they didn't. I suspect that they offered an extension with most of th aditional bonus as an option. In any case, this is pure specualtion.

You presume that Cassel is worth more than Delhome on the open market. Maybe, and maybe not. In any case, that was not the situation. A team needed to give up a pick in order to sign Cassel for $14M for 2009 and then get him to sign a the presumed $36M contract with $25M upfront.
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If you asking whether I think Cassel should have taken an additional $11M of bonus money payable now for a 6 year contract, I'd say sure. But that presumes that either he isn't worth the money so he should grab it (likely the case) or that he may be later and then sit out for a new contract in a couple of years.

In either case, a team would be out $25M plus say $2M-$3M a year of salary for three years. Paying Cassel that kind of money ($10M a year for the first 3 years) for Cassel would speak volumes about Pioli.

I am estimating. There is no guarantees he would have gotten $25 million in guarantees and there are no guarantees he would get a $2-3 million a year contract if he sucks this year. But I don't think he will get close to $22 million over five years if he has a 3,000 yard, 16 TD, and 16 INT season or something to that effect.

I do think he would get more than Delhomme though right now if he didn't sign the franchise tender since he is younger with far more upside. People were predicting before the offseason started that the Panthers might dump Delhomme and offer Peppers for Cassel. Delhomme looks pretty damn close to being done and already had Tommy John's surgery.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't think that any QB not named Brady or Manning is worth $17M for one year plus a pick or two, and I'm not sure of them.

You do realize that the Chiefs are going to pay Cassel over $14 million and gave up the second pick in the second round for him and Vrabel (who would have probably been cut if the Chiefs didn't trade for him). How is that significantly lower than $17 million and a pick or two? Especially if there is no salary cap next year. I would buy your argument if the Chiefs are doing exactly what you don't think anyone would do minus $3 million.

 

[Rob0729]

Of course Cassel would sign again. He pocketed $14M the first time. $17M the second time is good money if you can get it.

Except Cassel by many reports is upset that he isn't getting a long term deal. If he has a great year and is looking at $25-30 plus million guaranteed, he would be a fool to sign the franchise tender again before he could get a long term deal with the Chiefs or a long term deal and a trade somewhere else. All he needs to do is have an injury like Brady did this past season and he loses about $8-10 plus million in guarantees plus the money he would have gotten in the first three years of his deal since he would be virtually uncutable during that time because of the cap hit to release him.

 

[Rob0729]

Then we agree to disagree.

You believe that there are lots of teams outside of the colts and the patriots that would be interested in offering at least #34 and $17M for a one-year contract for Cassel if he has another good year.

I strongly disagree.

It only takes one. Denver was reportedly already ready to trade a first and a third (well it would be what they traded for Cutler). Why wouldn't they make the trade a year later assuming Kyle Orton doesn't become a stud under McDaniels. The second a franchise player signs the tender, their bargaining power for a long term deal goes out the window. I could see a team like the Broncos trading for him or the Chiefs keeping him and forcing him to take a below market deal because he already signed the tender and cannot block a trade or sit out to get a new deal.

 

[mgteich]

OK, we disagree. I think that Pioli was nuts to pay $14M and #34 and anyone who pays $17M and a #34 next year would be equally nuts. You think Cassel will take lots less for a long-term deal. Why? Under your scenario, he will get $31M for two years. Anything he gets after two years is gravy. As he did this year, he will sign his tender, and lose all rights to negotiate. He will be forced to play for whoever KC can get to pay him $17M for one year. Nice work if you can get it!

You do realize that the Chiefs are going to pay Cassel over $14 million and gave up the second pick in the second round for him and Vrabel (who would have probably been cut if the Chiefs didn't trade for him). How is that significantly lower than $17 million and a pick or two? Especially if there is no salary cap next year. I would buy your argument if the Chiefs are doing exactly what you don't think anyone would do minus $3 million.

 

[mgteich]

KC can force him to take $17M. If you think that is an aweful below market deal, then so be it. Cassel will not sit out. He will simply collect the cash.

It only takes one. I could see a team like the Broncos trading for him or the Chiefs keeping him and forcing him to take a below market deal because he already signed the tender and cannot block a trade or sit out to get a new deal.

 

[Deus Irae]

People told me that I was making way, way too much out of the $14M this year. The $14M was the reason that their was only one bidder that would give us as high as a #34 with no future contract agreed to. I didn't even want us to franchise him, unless it was to be withdrawn within a week of the starting of free agency, since I didn't expect any bidders. I was wrong. Belichick had a sucker, I mean bidder, all lined up.

The one year amount is the reason that Peppers is still playing for Carolina.

But it really doesn't matter. Pioli won't franchise Cassel again.

This is, again, inaccurate, according to multiple reports.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

This is, again, inaccurate, according to multiple reports.

meaningless without actually providing the reports.......

 

[Rob0729]

OK, we disagree. I think that Pioli was nuts to pay $14M and #34 and anyone who pays $17M and a #34 next year would be equally nuts. You think Cassel will take lots less for a long-term deal. Why? Under your scenario, he will get $31M for two years. Anything he gets after two years is gravy. As he did this year, he will sign his tender, and lose all rights to negotiate. He will be forced to play for whoever KC can get to pay him $17M for one year. Nice work if you can get it!

Why are the Chiefs crazy. As of May 15th, they were over $30 million under the salary cap. How is tying up $14 million on Cassel hurting them in any way? In fact since they are about $13 million under the salary cap minimum, his $14 million is actually helping them.

Under my scenario, he would still lose money because he could still get more if he gets a long term deal. Yes, he would have gotten $31 million over two years but he could get so much more with bargaining power in the scenario that someone would trade for him in that condition. He may be happy with that (I might), but whenever I see a player leaving money on the table when their goal is to get a long term deal, I say the lose even if losing isn't all that bad.

Again, odds are that Cassel will have a far less successful year than last year and there is at least a decent chance that people will reinforce the belief that he is an average at best QB who looked great because Belichick, McDaniels, Moss, and Welker made him look that way. In that scenario, Cassel loses big.

Again, it is a big gamble for Cassel. He could win big with an even bigger contract in 2010 than he could have gotten in 2009 after pocketing $14 million in 2009. Or he could be relegated to back up status somewhere in 2010 at back up money $1-3 million a year with short term deals. There is no guarantee that he doesn't lose his job to Thigpen at some point this year. Not having a long term deal also puts that at risk because he is not guaranteed their QB of the future and they may want at some point to figure out if Thigpen is.

This is why I think Cassel made a big mistake signing his tender. There is far too much uncertainty in a league where one hit can cost you a season or even your career and this week's flavor of the moment is next week's overrated washout. Most players and agents rather have the guarantees up front than gamble for a big payoff the following year.

 

[MarvLevy]

I know you guys wanted more than a 2nd round for Cassel, but it was an amazing trade for you in my opinion. A lot of average to below average Qbs have had career years with Moss. Cassel played well but I'm not sure he was ever better than Thigpen.

 

[Deus Irae]

meaningless without actually providing the reports.......

It's been done several times on this board.

 

[Synovia]

Again, odds are that Cassel will have a far less successful year than last year and there is at least a decent chance that people will reinforce the belief that he is an average at best QB who looked great because Belichick, McDaniels, Moss, and Welker made him look that way. In that scenario, Cassel loses big.
[ /QUOTE]

I don't agree he'll have a bad year, but even an "average" QB gets $10M+ a year. Look at the contract Delholme just got... I think Cassel's floor is Delholme.

Don't forget, KC also has a (going to be) 3rd year receiver who has had 1000 yds and 6tds in each of his first two seasons with the likes of Tyler Thigpen throwing to him.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't agree he'll have a bad year, but even an "average" QB gets $10M+ a year. Look at the contract Delholme just got... I think Cassel's floor is Delholme.

Don't forget, KC also has a (going to be) 3rd year receiver who has had 1000 yds and 6tds in each of his first two seasons with the likes of Tyler Thigpen throwing to him.

I seriously doubt he will get $10 million a year for an average year. Delhomme got his money for two reasons: His past performances with the Panthers and, more importantly, the Panthers were desperate to get cap room because they were scraping up against the cap and had no flexibility because of Julius Peppers and his tender offer. Also, Delhomme only got $8.4 million a year. My guess eventhough he has $20 million in guarantees, most of the none guaranteed money is backloaded and will never be paid out. There aren't a lot of recent deals to go on with "average" QBs, but Pennington got a two year deal for $11.5 million (total for the two years).

As for the Chiefs' receiving corp. I have given Dwayne Bowe props, but he isn't Randy Moss and Bobby Engram certainly isn't Wes Welker. Again, all they really have for a receiving corp is Bowe. Bowe also benefitted his first two years with Gonzalez drawing the double coverages. Now he will draw them himself because many of their receivers probably can't get open even if they don't put someone on them. The Chiefs have one of the worst receiving corps in the league. Bowe is a good, not great receiver and the rest of the receiving corp is either garbage, back up material, or unproven. Their best receiver last year is no longer with the team (Gonzalez) and they replaced him with a declining #3 WR. Seriously, who would you line up opposite Bowe to draw attention away from him?

Even if he is the real deal, odds are he is going to have a major letdown compared to last year. My point wasn't that he was going to have a bad year though, but that by signing his franchise tender he has no protection from having a bad year and that it could cost him millions because he would probably have a long term deal if he didn't. He could end up making millions if he does have a good year, but he is gambling on his future right now just like the Chiefs are.

 

[jmt57]

Why are the Chiefs crazy. As of May 15th, they were over $30 million under the salary cap. How is tying up $14 million on Cassel hurting them in any way? In fact since they are about $13 million under the salary cap minimum, his $14 million is actually helping them.

Under my scenario, he would still lose money because he could still get more if he gets a long term deal. Yes, he would have gotten $31 million over two years but he could get so much more with bargaining power in the scenario that someone would trade for him in that condition. He may be happy with that (I might), but whenever I see a player leaving money on the table when their goal is to get a long term deal, I say the lose even if losing isn't all that bad.

Again, odds are that Cassel will have a far less successful year than last year and there is at least a decent chance that people will reinforce the belief that he is an average at best QB who looked great because Belichick, McDaniels, Moss, and Welker made him look that way. In that scenario, Cassel loses big.

Again, it is a big gamble for Cassel. He could win big with an even bigger contract in 2010 than he could have gotten in 2009 after pocketing $14 million in 2009. Or he could be relegated to back up status somewhere in 2010 at back up money $1-3 million a year with short term deals. There is no guarantee that he doesn't lose his job to Thigpen at some point this year. Not having a long term deal also puts that at risk because he is not guaranteed their QB of the future and they may want at some point to figure out if Thigpen is.

This is why I think Cassel made a big mistake signing his tender. There is far too much uncertainty in a league where one hit can cost you a season or even your career and this week's flavor of the moment is next week's overrated washout. Most players and agents rather have the guarantees up front than gamble for a big payoff the following year.

Didn't Cassel have to sign the tender in order to be traded? Plus by signing the tender, isn't he guaranteed the $14 million - even if he gets hurt the next day?

I do agree however that he is taking a big chance, based on the possibility of either an injury or a bad year due to playing on a team that is not very good.

 

[Rob0729]

Didn't Cassel have to sign the tender in order to be traded? Plus by signing the tender, isn't he guaranteed the $14 million - even if he gets hurt the next day?

I do agree however that he is taking a big chance, based on the possibility of either an injury or a bad year due to playing on a team that is not very good.

Cassel could have been traded even if he didn't sign the tender until after a long term deal with another team and the trade terms were negotiated. He probably wouldn't have been traded so quickly though. Cassel did what was in the best interest of the Patriots and not himself.

Yes, Cassel is guaranteed $14 million. So if he loses, he still wins. It isn't that he isn't going to be set for life as long as he doesn't spend his money foolishly, it is that he may have been in a far better position financially if he didn't sign the franchise tender prior to getting a long term deal finalized with the Chiefs. He could end up far richer by signing his tender and not getting a long term deal. It is just a big gamble with a lot of the deck stacked against him (a bad team in the first year of a rebuilding process with a new coaching staff and not a lot of talent on offense).

 

[TruthSeeker]

Cassel blew it big time if he thought he was getting a long term deal. It could pay off huge next season if he has as good of year next year or close or he could end up losing millions and millions of dollars if he sitruggles. He is probably regretting signing the franchise tender so quickly because he gave up all leverage he had this offseason doing so.

Who says he thought he was getting a long term deal?

Why should he regret getting 14+ million this year and the possibility of many other millions going forward? Why is this a bad thing? Sure, it's a bit of a gamble - but, IMO, the chances that he wins the gamble are better than he loses the gamble.

Let's say that he could sign a 6-year 36 million dollar deal tomorrow. Well, that's effectively the same as signing a 5-year 21.5 million dollar deal next March with less guaranteed money in the 6-year deal because that's what the deal is worth after this year. Is 4+ million that much to pay for a starting caliber QB which Matt Cassel (and apparently Scott Pioli amongst others) believe that he is? No, that's definately at the bottom end of starting QB salaries.

Why, again, is this not a good position for Matt Cassel? Oh, I remember now. Because some people believe that it is always better to have the guaranteed money in the hand. Well guess what - it can work out quite well to have the option for free agency next year. And if Cassel doesn't sign a long-term deal this season, I'm betting that it will work out better for him than if he does.

 

[Rob0729]

Who says he thought he was getting a long term deal?

Why should he regret getting 14+ million this year and the possibility of many other millions going forward? Why is this a bad thing? Sure, it's a bit of a gamble - but, IMO, the chances that he wins the gamble are better than he loses the gamble.

Let's say that he could sign a 6-year 36 million dollar deal tomorrow. Well, that's effectively the same as signing a 5-year 21.5 million dollar deal next March with less guaranteed money in the 6-year deal because that's what the deal is worth after this year. Is 4+ million that much to pay for a starting caliber QB which Matt Cassel (and apparently Scott Pioli amongst others) believe that he is? No, that's definately at the bottom end of starting QB salaries.

Why, again, is this not a good position for Matt Cassel? Oh, I remember now. Because some people believe that it is always better to have the guaranteed money in the hand. Well guess what - it can work out quite well to have the option for free agency next year. And if Cassel doesn't sign a long-term deal this season, I'm betting that it will work out better for him than if he does.

Word out of the owner's meeting last month was that Cassel and his agent were very frustrated with the fact that Pioli has no interest in negotiating a long term deal.

Again, it is a gamble. Cassel could be looking at a two year $6-8 million deal next year if he has a bad year. Or he could be rehabbing an ACL tear and get a one year $2 million deal to prove he is back. But having $14 million now and not a heck of a lot more in the long run is a much better proposition. Hey Bobby Engram could turn into Wes Welker. I truly believe it will happen. And Dwayne Bowe is better than Randy Moss too.

Again, Cassel wants a long term deal and Pioli doesn't want to give it to him. Of course that means that Cassel believes he is taking advantage of the situation by not getting what he wants.

Cassel goes into this year not knowing what his future is going to be. If he has a bad year, he immediately becomes a back up QB who was a product of the Patriots in most of the league's eyes and will get back up money or very low end starter money which will have cost him millions. If this happens obviously Cassel is in the catbird's seat commanding a lucrative one to two year prove it to me deal while competiting for the starting job with such illuminaries as Jeff Garcia or Kyle Orton.

I have said this could work out very well for Cassel and make him a ton more money than he would than if he signed a long term deal now, but it is amazing how many people refuse to admit the reality that it could be disaster for him if he struggles. Or that Cassel has a lot of things working against him from a young team with little talent with Pioli looking to rebuild the team and build something for 2-3 down the line which might be counter productive to Cassel's numbers in a contract year.

It is funny that people defend the Pats for getting only a second round pick for Cassel because no one wants him and then argue that teams will pay him $8-10 million a year in 2010 if he has a mediocre year further enforcing the doubts that he was a product of the Patriots' system which was the argument to defend Belichick for getting so little. You can't have it both ways.