11-5 vs. 8-8

[upstater1]

The only discussions on changing the format last time around were about adding 1 team to the playoffs, not getting rid of division winners.

 

[LasVegasPatsFan]

Playoff format should be changed to a 16 team playoff format. (Division champs and 4 wildcards) and eliminating the bye weeks. The bye week doesn't give an advantage. This way there will never be a 11-5 or 10-6 team missing the post season. Similar to the 1982 strike shortened season except not the top 8 teams but change from 2 wild cards to 4 wild cards.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't get what you're saying.

I thought your point was that 8-8 with last year's Patriot schedule was more impressive than 11-5 with this year's schedule.

Total record of our opponent's last year was .468
Total record of our opponent's this year is .477

I fail to see how 8-8 against a .468 schedule is more impressive than a 11-5 against a .477 schedule (even though I agree with you that last season's schedule was tougher, because, well, the stats lie).

But now let's look at the 8-8 team in question: San Diego.

Their opponent's record so far this year is .457.

See, an 8-8 team against a .457 opponents' win % will enter the playoffs over a 11-5 team with a .477 opponents' win %.

How can you possibly not be getting such an obvious point? Last year, the AFC East faced tough divisons outside of their own division. This year, the AFC East is playing cupcake divisions outside of their own division. Not surprisingly, even with Brady gone, the AFC East is winning a lot more games this year.

Stop trying to out think the room.

 

[upstater1]

How can you possibly not be getting such an obvious point? Last year, the AFC East faced tough divisons outside of their own division. This year, the AFC East is playing cupcake divisions outside of their own division. Not surprisingly, even with Brady gone, the AFC East is winning a lot more games this year.

Stop trying to out think the room.

Sigh.

I'm comparing our schedule to the Chargers schedule. That's basically it. Theirs isn't any tougher than ours, it's weaker. They won 8 against a weak division, weak schedule. We won 11.

Plus, last year we play our cupcake division TWICE. This year, we play our STRONG division twice. That's why our strength of schedule is basically the same this year as it was last year. Winning 11 games this year is just a better achievement than winning 8 games against last year's schedule would have been.

I'm the only sane one here. Can't believe any of you really think winning 8 games against last year's schedule would have been tougher. Winning 8 games last year would have meant winning only 2 games other than beating the pathetic Bills, Jets and Dolphins.

I have OUT-THOUGHT the room, apparently.

 

[pao]

But, we're not comparing the Patriots to the Phins.

We're comparing the Patriots to 8-8 teams that have 4 or 6 games against the Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, etc. Arizona is 5-0 against the Rams, Seahawks, 9ers. They are 3-7 against the rest of the league.

Well to be fair the Chargers, if they were to beat the Broncos next week, would be 9-7 (not 8-8)if not for one of the worst calls in NFL history.

 

[pao]

10-6, very different than 8-8.

But not much different from 9-7.

 

[pao]

i truly "get" what you are saying emotionally and, believe me, I share your feelings, as I just expressed in a blistering e-mail to a (former?) friend of mine in Phoenix.

However, I also think that Divisional rivalries are one of the most exciting things about the NFL. This means that we all have to live with crappy Divisions delivering crappy Divisional Champions from time to time, even when we get screwed by it, as the Pats might this year. And, unfortunately, the only way that those crappy Champions are going to get better is if they have a preferred status in the Draft.

Great post, I agree. I'm not saying the Chargers are better than the Patriots this year, right now they aren't. But it's the way it's set up and I like it.

 

[Miguel]

If the Patriots indeed played 2 more games against the weak Wests than the Chargers did, shouldn't one also mention that the Patriots also played 3 more games against the strong AFC East than the Chargers did?

This is precisely the reason why the Patriots strength of schedule is .477 and the Chargers is .457.

How are you calculating SOS??

Chargers
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
Tampa Bay 9 6
Carolina 11 4
Atlanta 10 5
New Orleans 8 7
Indy 11 4
Pittsburgh 11 4
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
Patriots 10 5
124-116 or .517

Patriots
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
San Francisco 6 9
St. Louis 2 13
Seattle 4 11
Arizona 8 7
Indy 11 4
Pittsburgh 11 4
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Chargers 7 8
115-125 = .479

 

[upstater1]

But not much different from 9-7.

The Chargers if they get in will be 8-8.

 

[pao]

I fail to see how 8-8 against a .468 schedule is more impressive than a 11-5 against a .477 schedule (even though I agree with you that last season's schedule was tougher, because, well, the stats lie).

But now let's look at the 8-8 team in question: San Diego.

Their opponent's record so far this year is .457.

See, an 8-8 team against a .457 opponents' win % will enter the playoffs over a 11-5 team with a .477 opponents' win %.

Your Chargers SOS for this year is incorrect. It's more like .556. And, for fair comparison, the Chargers should be looked at as a 9-7 team vs. 8-8 (IF they win next week). 11-5 is STILL alot better but, the Chargers did beat the Patriots.

 

[upstater1]

How are you calculating SOS??

Chargers
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
Tampa Bay 9 6
Carolina 11 4
Atlanta 10 5
New Orleans 8 7
Indy 11 4
Pittsburgh 11 4
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
Patriots 10 5
124-116 or .517

Patriots
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Raiders 4 11
Broncos 8 7
Chiefs 2 13
San Francisco 6 9
St. Louis 2 13
Seattle 4 11
Arizona 8 7
Indy 11 4
Pittsburgh 11 4
Jets 9 6
Bills 7 8
Dolphins 10 5
Chargers 7 8
115-125 = .479

Badly, apparently. I got the Patriots number right but screwed up the Chargers number.

Regardless, 8 wins against that schedule is not as worthy as 11 against ours. We played Phins and Jets an extra time, which offsets the Chargers tough games against Carolina and Atlanta.

 

[upstater1]

Your Chargers SOS for this year is incorrect. It's more like .556. And, for fair comparison, the Chargers should be looked at as a 9-7 team vs. 8-8 (IF they win next week). 11-5 is STILL alot better but, the Chargers did beat the Patriots.

Apparently, we're both wrong, and you weren't even closer than my number.

Can you stop it with this schtick about the Chargers being 9-7?

 

[pao]

The Chargers if they get in will be 8-8.

But if Denver gets in they'll be 9-7. Also, to be fair, the Chargers would be 9-7 too (provided they win next week), if not for the worst call in NFL history.

 

[pao]

Apparently, we're both wrong, and you weren't even closer than my number.

Yeah, we were both wrong. Wrong is wrong. I have less of a hard time admitting it than you though, so I've got that going for me (I've probably had more practice though).

Can you stop it with this schtick about the Chargers being 9-7?

What about Denver? They could be 9-7.

 

[aluminum seats]

This is just one of the things that happens in all sports with divisional play. Sometimes it benefits your team, sometimes it hurts your team. It's far more entertaining that just taking the top teams. If it hurts the Pats this year, them's the breaks.

 

[fumbrunner]

How are you calculating SOS??

Chargers
124-116 or .517

Patriots
115-125 = .479

apparently in a way to serve his argument

 

[Deus Irae]

Sigh.

I'm comparing our schedule to the Chargers schedule. That's basically it. Theirs isn't any tougher than ours, it's weaker. They won 8 against a weak division, weak schedule. We won 11.

Plus, last year we play our cupcake division TWICE. This year, we play our STRONG division twice. That's why our strength of schedule is basically the same this year as it was last year. Winning 11 games this year is just a better achievement than winning 8 games against last year's schedule would have been.

I'm the only sane one here. Can't believe any of you really think winning 8 games against last year's schedule would have been tougher. Winning 8 games last year would have meant winning only 2 games other than beating the pathetic Bills, Jets and Dolphins.

I have OUT-THOUGHT the room, apparently.

No, you haven't out thought the room. The only person you've out thought is yourself. You took a basic, general premise and cherry picked your argument with one specific and misleading comparison. And, despite that, you still can't make your case.

 

[Satchboogie3]

You know what is really disgusting? The fact that the Cowboys STILL control their destiny even after that pathetic performance Saturday.

 

[upstater1]

Yeah, we were both wrong. Wrong is wrong. I have less of a hard time admitting it than you though, so I've got that going for me (I've probably had more practice though).
What about Denver? They could be 9-7.

???

You admitted it after me so I guess that means you have less of a hard time, eh? Congratulations, you beat me to admitting your wrongness by admitting it after me.

Great going, Einstein.

 

[upstater1]

No, you haven't out thought the room. The only person you've out thought is yourself. You took a basic, general premise and cherry picked your argument with one specific and misleading comparison. And, despite that, you still can't make your case.

I made my case and it's obvious. You're the one cherrypicking. The case is simple: winning 11 games against our schedule is better than winning 8 games against the Chargers schedule.

Anyone who believes otherwise is deluded.