Revisiting an old idea...

[Urgent]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Given normal QB roster structure, there is also some advantage to Cassel departing.

Normally, best case, a team wants:
1) Top NFL starter
2) Mediocre aging vet (Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins, Damon Huard, etc.)
3) High-potential developing young player

The Pats have two or three young inexperienced players right now.
O'Connell, as a rookie playing only in the fourth quarter, showed a few signs that he could offer more potential than Cassel.
O'Connell was drafted higher.
O'Connell has dramatically more game experience the past four years.

A roster with Brady, mediocre vet, O'Connell is well balanced.
Mediocre vet starts for a game or two if needed.
O'Connell would be a longer term option if Brady again went down.

The mediocre vet might be cheaper than next year's Cassel, especially under some of the scenarios proposed.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

The Pats were OK with Cassel leaving before Brady went down. Why would they suddenly mess up their cap structure, miss opportunities to extend strong contributors and take cap risk just to get a middling pick? There's always FA to add talent too. A 3rd round or so pick is not worth the risks. Note, I AM assuming that Cassel is not the SB MVP as I type this.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Unless he's outstanding which I do not expect, Franchising him is risky. Plus we'd need the cap space even temporarily.

A $6M bonus on a 2 year $8M contract hits us $4M this year minus his already half million. Limits our ability to re-up key players early.

That same contract puts $3M dead cap money into 2009.

This is not worth trying to get a middling draft pick. Let's root for Matt and be happy he's here now when we need him.

Agreed. The Cap space given up is way more valuable than a mid round pick. Good luck Cassel. Unless something goes terribly wrong, Brady is our QB in 2009. Not worth trying to hold onto Cassel once 'the man' is back.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

You guys want to spend $6M of cap money in the HOPE that you can trade Cassel and get a 3rd round draft choice? Or you would franchise him?

1) He would simply sign the franchise tender.

2) We would lose lots of flexibility, as long as Cassel was on the team during all the negotiations.

3) If he is has a great season and signs somewhere for lots of money, won't we get a 3rd in compensation anyway?

4) Is a POTENTIAL 3rd round draft choice worth $6M of cap money?

5) If Cassel is worth a 3rd rounder, I would want to keep him as a backup.

BOTTOM LINE
Try to extend him now, if you think he is worth it, with NO idea whatsoever of trading him. After all, there is no guarantee that Brady will be 100% at the start of next season.

And no, I don't think he would take the money without lost of incentives.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

No way. Matt holds all the cards here and his value next year is tied directly to what he does over the rest of the season.

If he wants to be a very rich man, he needs play well and get into the playoffs.

you got it right. unless he has little confidence in his own abilities (which is not the profile i would paint of any guy who's gone 3--1 cold in his first three nfl qb starts), Matt has no incentive to do anything but roll the dice, give it his best and see if he can get rich.

if he takes the pats into the playoffs, he's a bona fide, nfl starting qb with a successful season under his belt. if he wins just one playoff game, he's done more than most guys playing the position today. if he takes them deep into the playoffs, teams will line up to bid on him. why shouldn't he go for it?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

.... in the up and down world that is Matt Cassel's life as a New England Patriot.

After the Jet game there was a lot of talk about what to do with Matt's future in NE, and/or how to maximize his trade value in the future. Here are the facts.

1. He has NO future trade value as of now because he will be a FA at the end of the season.
if he has a future with the Pats there will have to be a new contract signed BEFORE the end of this season.

2. Assuming he continues to make progress over the season and the Pats make it into the playoffs, there WILL BE a market for him this off season.

3. IF he WERE under contract with the Pats at the end of the season, he would be most likely worth some kind of 3rd round pick, or some kind of sliding scale deal that would change the round based on how much he plays for his new team. Very much like the deal the Jets have with the Pack on Farve. Something that moves from a 4th to a 2nd based on performance.

4. What the Pats have to do is to get him under contract. Right now he's earning about a half million dollars. So a deal that would put 4-6 Million in his pocket immediately would look pretty good to him. In reality it pays him as a true starter on a contending team, and wouldn't really hurt him in his quest to get his own team next year. In essence the Pats are willing to give him financial security TODAY in exchange for the ability to get some kind of draft pick in the off season. It really wouldn't effect his ability to get a new contract. Since any team that would trade for him would probably give him a new longer term contract.

5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus. That puts some good money in his pocket in time for Christmas, at the same time gives the Pats the right to trade him instead of just watch him walk out the door. Its a much cheaper option that making him a franchise or transitional player. At worst the Pats would have a much better and more experienced back up for 2009 than the one they had in 2008.

that might make sense from the pats point of view, but it doesn't make sense for Matt. as i said in answer to another post, this is his shot at big bucks. he'd be a fool not to gamble and take it.

 

[patfanken]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

It hits us $2.5M this year and leaves a dead cap of $4M to be spread over 2009 and 2010 actually...

They won't tag him UNLESS they know there is a market and they are COMMITTED to getting a pre draft deal done. 2009 is projected to be a very shallow draft for QB's and lots of teams are in dire need of one... Ditto they won't extend him unless they can fashion a deal that works reasonably well for both sides (i.e. guarantees him some starters money while allowing for a trade so someone else can foot the bulk of that bill...).

I don't think they have until draft day to resign him. I think he becomes a FA the day after the superbowl or soon after (it might even be as late as 3/1)

 

[patfanken]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

let me add...

Resigning him during a season is a MUTUAL risk/reward situation for BOTH sides. Sure if he gets progressively better every game and the Pats go to the Superbowl, he will hit the lottery in FA. However there is no guarantee that this will happen. If this were done within a few weeks, the jury would still be out on Cassel, and who knows about the injury factor. For his benefit, there is no guarantee that anyone would be willing to put up big bucks, even if he leads him deep into the playoffs. There wasn't much of a market for Trent Dilfer after he WON a superbowl. If he takes the sure money now, he can set himself up for life. Also if by chance he has a GREAT season individually, teams that trade for him will WANT to give him a long term extention.

The reality is that Cassel's progression this season will NOT be an orderly progression of constant improvement. There will be several ups and downs. We HAVE to remember that this is STILL his first 3 starts in 8+ years in football. There is a lot to pick up. Believe me he will look more often like pre-2008 Eli Manning more often than he will look like Tom Brady.

My proposal would give the Pats some leverage and the Cap consequense really wouldn't effect them that much. Again its a risk/reward situation. I'm thinking that it is more likely that Cassel will have some trade value at the end of the season than it is that he won't.

 

[primetime]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Cleo Lemon got a three-year, $10mm contract, without the benefit of a whole year starting. Cleo Lemon strives to be mediocre. Cassel will definitely be in line for a $10mm deal if he plays well behind the Patriots offense.

Lemon is a player that has never failed to impress me. Consider that he was saddled with one of the worst supporting casts in the history of the league, as well as an absolutely incompetent coaching staff, and the fact that he actually played well at times is pretty incredible. I'm coming around on Cassel, but if you gave me the choice between him and Lemon, I'd pick Lemon.

 

[Urgent]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

let me add...

Resigning him during a season is a MUTUAL risk/reward situation for BOTH sides.

Another great reason not to re-sign him mid-season.

Next year, Plan A is Brady. No intention of having Cassel start.
Plan B may well be O'Connell - he has more upside, more potential.

So, what you want is to do everything you can to maximize Cassel's performance this year.
There was chatter that turning away Rattay and Sims, et al, had something to do with creating an environment where Cassel knows he is the guy, doesn't have any worries, and plays without that fear.

Another element would be to keep him in his contract year, in hopes he has a, well, contract year. Funny how those work.

Obviously he's a professional, waiting for his chance, blah blah, and will give 100%. But history shows how players notch it up to 11 when playing for a new contract. This team rode contract-year performance from Dillon and Moss in the past, among many others.

 

[BradyToMoss]

Why bother, let him walk, KO will be our #2 anyway...........

 

[fourthandmiles]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

I also think Matt is a pretty savvy kid who would be looking at the long term (career) as well as short term (bonus $$$) ramifications of where he landed...(system similarity or fit, coaching and franchise stability, roster talent, conference or division...)

He would fit in well with Arizona and Cincinatti.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

First, I don't think the Pats tender him an offer as suggested but were he to receive an offer by say midseason he might consider that his lack of pocket awareness and the questionable OL could quite possibly get him injured and thus rob him of any substantive new contract with another team. A guy who played OK for a few games and then gets injured would not command much of a signing bonus contract.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

If you assume he continue as is, no better, no worse :

I don't think he'd sign a 2 year/$8M deal. He could get more than that on the open market. Capable, young QB with upside would do better. I would like to think we'd Franchise him and trade him. Of course he'd have to do well enough to make him tradable but that's part of the premise.

There's three possibility in my mind :

- He looks bad the rest of the way. In which case we just let him go obviously.

- He looks below average but playable the rest of the way. That's tricky to Franchise him as he could sign the offer which is guaranteed and we may find no takers and be stuck with a one year albatross contract.

- He looks average or better. Now I Franchise him, not expecting a bounty but figuring a team would give up between a #2 and #4 pick either signing him long term or paying him the Franchise amount for a year then deciding a year from now what to do.

The middle option is the only tricky one.

No, the tricky one is the franchise one. You hit him with the tag and he immediately signs it. Now you have just guaranteed him him about $14 million in 2009.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

No, the tricky one is the franchise one. You hit him with the tag and he immediately signs it. Now you have just guaranteed him him about $14 million in 2009.

Precisely. And now tell me who offers him MORE than that guaranteed? (I do not mean guaranteed like Wendel does when he guarantees 80% correct W-L predictions and delivers 57%, just slightly above chance)

NFW do the Pats Franchise Cassel, unless he's SB MVP. Color me, a Cassel rooter, skeptical.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

I suggested exactly the same three-pronged outlook after his first game, before a down game and an up game, and was ridiculed.

If Cassel signs a deal with the Patriots, and they opt to trade him, they determine where he goes. If Cassel hits free agency, he can call the shots.

We've been though this a zillion times.

Cassel calls the shots either way. All he has to do is refuse to sign a long-term deal with any trading partner selected by the Pats. The trade falls through because no team is going to give up a decent draft pick for a player on a one-year deal. Or he could have his agent insist on a ton of money up front in a new deal, way more than he is worth. Or his agent could simply tell the trading team Cassel doesn't want to go there so don't even bother trading.

Remember Javon Walker? The Pack wanted to trade him to NE. NE wanted him. Javon simply missed his filght to NE for the workout. Then he missed the second flight. Oopsie. Then he missed the third flight, and NE said forget it.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Lemon is a player that has never failed to impress me. Consider that he was saddled with one of the worst supporting casts in the history of the league, as well as an absolutely incompetent coaching staff, and the fact that he actually played well at times is pretty incredible. I'm coming around on Cassel, but if you gave me the choice between him and Lemon, I'd pick Lemon.

Wow. Are you his mom?

 

[primetime]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Wow. Are you his mom?

Considering he was quickly snatched up this offseason as a backup and given a pretty good contract, I'd say that I'm not the only one who thinks Lemon is a good QB.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Considering he was quickly snatched up this offseason as a backup and given a pretty good contract, I'd say that I'm not the only one who thinks Lemon is a good QB.

You're right. Great minds like AQUA4EVER would agree with you.

 

[Miguel]

.5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus.

When you say 2 year deal, are you talking about the 2008/2009 seasons or about the 2008/2009/2010 seasons