NFL Week 8 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
October 30, 2016 at 6:00 am ET

Week 8 is highlighted by a chance for the New England Patriots to avenge their only loss of the 2016 season. The Pats travel to Buffalo seeking their fourth straight win while the Bills look to rebound from last week’s loss to Miami. Back in week four an emotionally spent New England team lost to the Bills after shockingly beginning the season 3-0, much to the chagrin of every person who has ever had an office at 345 Park Avenue. The game kicks off at 1:00 pm eastern time and will be carried by many CBS stations in the eastern United States.

In the first game between these two original AFL rivals at Foxboro the Bills handed the Patriots their sole loss of the season. With rookie Jacoby Brisset under center Buffalo dominated, shutting the Pats out 16-0. Even though the Patriots are on the road against a 4-win team, the handicappers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have listed the Pats as the second biggest favorite of the week.

Meanwhile Roger Goodell and his minions have become a text book example of how to not arrogantly and condescendingly alienate your customers. It is amazing to see how such highly paid people turn one event after another in to such public relation blunders. The fact that Goodell remains in office speaks volumes about the lack of character of many NFL owners.

 

NFL Week 8 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 4-3 Washington Redskins ‘at’ 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals in London
Sunday, October 30 at 9:30 am ET; Kenny Albert, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Bengals -3 . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . CIN -150, WAS +130
Broadcast in all markets.

Cincinnati is the better team on paper but the Bengals still seem to be hungover from their epic playoff meltdown in early January. However, Washington is missing three key players: Josh Norman, Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff. Without Norman on defense and those two offensive linemen the Skins are very beatable.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Redskins 20
Bengals -3. . . . . under 49½ . . . . . Cincinnati -150

Final Score: Redskins 27, Bengals 27 (OT) -tie-
Bengals -3 x . . . . under 49½ x. . . . Bengals -150 -push-

 

★★★ 4-3 Detroit Lions at 4-3 Houston Texans
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Texans -2½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . HOU -140, DET +120
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana (except Indianapolis), Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Nashville TN.

After losing three straight by a total of eleven points Detroit won three in a row at home by a total of seven points. The Lions should be able to take advantage of Houston’s mediocre run defense (4.4 yards per carry, 135 yards per game) and inconsistent passing game.

Prediction: Lions 24, Texans 20
Lions +2½ . . . . . under 46 . . . . . Detroit +120

Final Score: Texans 20, Lions 13 x
Lions +2½ x . . . . under 46 ✓ . . . . Lions +120 x

 

★★★★ 4-1-1 Seattle Seahawks at 2-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Justin Kutcher, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman
Seahawks -2½ . . . . over/under 48 . . . . SEA -140 NOR +120
Broadcast in most markets.

Seattle played five tough quarters of football last Sunday night and now has to travel 2600 miles across two time zones. In the last seven games road teams coming off a 0-7, losing by an average of 19.3 points per game. The Saints should have won their third in a row last week at Kansas City. A well thrown pass by Drew Brees was tipped and returned for a pick six, turning out to be the difference in a 27-21 loss. Seattle’s defense is banged up and after appearing to gel, the Seahawk offensive line has taken a step backwards. That’s bad news for Pete Carrol’s crew. The Saints are averaging 36 points per game at home.

Prediction: Saints 34, Seahawks 27
Saints +2½ (one unit) . . . . . over 48 (two units) . . . . . New Orleans +120

Final Score: Saints 25, Seahawks 20 ✓
Saints +2½ . . . . over 48 xx . . . . Saints +120 ✓

 

★★★ 3-3-1 Arizona Cardinals at 1-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Sam Rosen, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CAR -155, ARI +135
Broadcast in Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina and western Virginia.

Arizona is in the same situation as Seattle, making a long road trip for an early game after a long, tough game Sunday night. Even though the Carolina secondary is not as effective as a year ago, Carson Palmer has regressed even more so. Carolina has had a tough schedule, they are better than their record indicates. The Panthers have lost to Minnesota and have three road losses to decent teams. Carolina has lost at Denver, New Orleans and Atlanta; their other loss was with Derek Anderson at quarterback.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20
Panthers -3 (one unit) . . . . under 47½ . . . . . Carolina -155

Final Score: Panthers 30, Cardinals 20 ✓
Panthers -3 . . . . under 47½ x . . . . Panthers -155 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Game of the Week

★★★★★ 6-1 New England Patriots at 4-3 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET on CBSIan Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Patriots -6½ . . . . over/under 47 . . . . NWE -260, BUF +220
Broadcast in New England, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, DC, south Florida (Fort Myers, Tampa and West Palm Beach), Georgia, Hawaii, eastern Kentucky, Louisiana (except Baton Rouge and New Orleans), Maryland, Michigan (except Detroit and Flint), Minnesota, Mississippi, New York (except NYC), North Carolina (except Charlotte), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania (except Scranton), South Carolina, Tennessee (except Knoxville), Texas (except Houston), Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Chicago IL, Cincinnati OH and Las Vegas NV.

In ‘revenge’ games against a team that they lost to earlier in the season, the Patriots are 8-0 with Tom Brady at quarterback. The combined score of the last four of those games is 166-51. Nose Tackle Marcel Dareus returns to the lineup for Buffalo, but the Bills will be without RB LeSean McCoy, WR Marquise Goodwin and DT Jerel Worthy.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17
Patriots -6½ (five units). . . . . over 47 . . . . . New England -260

Final Score: Patriots 41, Bills 25 ✓
Patriots -6½ ✓✓✓✓✓ . . . . over 47 ✓ . . . . Patriots -260 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Early Games on CBS

2-5 New York Jets at 0-7 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Jets -2½ . . . . over/under 44 . . . . NYJ -140, CLE +120
Broadcast in New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and Scranton PA.

The Browns have to win at least one game this year, right?

Prediction: Browns 23, Jets 20
Browns +2½ . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Cleveland +120

Final Score: Jets 31, Browns 28 x
Browns +2½ x . . . . under 44 x . . . . Browns +120 x

 

★★★ 5-2 Oakland Raiders at 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker
Pick’em . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . OAK -110, TAM -110
Broadcast in northern California, north and central Florida, and Reno NV.

The Raiders spent the week in Florida, so jet lag and an early kickoff is not an issue. The Bucs are fortunate to be 3-3. Two weeks ago they faced Carolina without Cam Newton, and last week they played San Francisco.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Bucs 24
Raiders +0 . . . . . over 49½ . . . . . Oakland -110

Final Score: Raiders 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT) ✓
Raiders +0 ✓ . . . . over 49½ ✓ . . . . Raiders -110 ✓

 

★★★ 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-4 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Chiefs -3 . . . . over/under 50 . . . . KAN -145, IND +125
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Indiana, Iowa, western Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, Fargo ND and Knoxville TN.

The Colt defense is not good at all. Indy is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their passes (30th)and is tied with New Orleans with a league-low two interceptions. Kansas City’s balanced offense and bend but don’t break defense should be able to do just enough for a close road win.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Colts 20
Chiefs -3 (one unit). . . . . under 50 . . . . . Kansas City -145

Final Score: Chiefs 30, Colts 14 ✓
Chiefs -3 . . . . under 50 ✓ . . . . Chiefs -145 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Late Games

★★★★ 3-4 San Diego Chargers at 5-2 Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 30 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Broncos -4 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . DEN -200, SDC +175
Broadcast in Arizona, southern California, Colorado, Idaho, southern Louisiana (Baton Rouge and New Orleans), eastern Michigan (Flint and Detroit), Montana, New Mexico, Charlotte NC, Bismark ND, Portland OR, South Dakota, Houston TX, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

San Diego won the first meeting between these two rivals, but circumstances are different now. This time the game is at Mile High, Gary Kubiak is back coaching and Trevor Siemian is healthy for Denver. Winning back-to-back road games is rare in the NFL. San Diego is not only facing that challenge, but also coming off an overtime game on the road. Then there is the Denver defense playing at home. There are too many factors that are not in the Chargers’ favor.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chargers 17
Broncos -4 (three units). . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Denver -200

Final Score: Broncos 27, Chargers 19 ✓
Broncos -4 ✓✓✓ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Broncos -200 ✓

 

★★★★★ 4-2 Green Bay Packers at 4-3 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Falcons -3 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . ATL -155, GNB +135
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of Denver.

The Packers will be well rested, having last played in an easy 26-10 victory over the Bears ten days ago. Atlanta may be at home but they played to overtime last week. Aaron Rodgers should have a big game against a Falcon defense that is allowing opponents to complete 67% of their passes.

Prediction: Packers 34, Falcons 31, Packers 27
Packers +3 . . . . . over 52½ (three units) . . . . . Green Bay +135

Final Score: Falcons 33, Packers 32 x
Packers +3 x . . . . over 52½ ✓✓✓ . . . . Packers +135 x

 

★★★★ 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-1 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 30 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Cowboys -4½ . . . . over/under 43 . . . . DAL -210, PHI +180
Broadcast in all markets.

The Eagles surrendered 230 rushing yards to Washington two weeks ago. If Philly couldn’t stop the Skins’ ground game, how can they slow down Ezekiel Elliott? Should Philadelphia stack the box and sell out to stop the run, that just opens up the passing game. Dallas gets WR Dez Bryant back after missing three games due to a knee injury.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
Cowboys -4½ (two units). . . . . over 43 . . . . . Dallas -210

Final Score: Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 (OT) ✓
Cowboys -4½ ✓✓ . . . . over 43 ✓ . . . . Cowboys -210 ✓

 

★★ 5-1 Minnesota Vikings at 1-6 Chicago Bears
Monday, October 30 at 8:30 pm ET; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Vikings -4½ . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . MIN -210, CHI +175
Broadcast in all markets.

After losing their first game of the season the Vikings will be highly motivated. By the time this one is over Jay Cutler will be wishing that he was still on the sideline as a backup.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 13
Vikings -4½ (two units). . . . . under 40½ . . . . . Minnesota -210

Final Score: Bears 20, Vikings 10 x
Vikings -4½ xx . . . . under 40½ ✓ . . . . Vikings -210 x

 

2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars at 3-4 Tennessee Titans
Thursday, October 27 on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Titans -3 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . TEN -150, JAC +130
Broadcast in all markets.

As expected the Jags showed that they are not yet ready for prime time. Maybe next year.

Prediction: Titans 23, Jaguars 13
Titans -3 (two units) . . . . under 43½ (one unit) . . . . Tennessee -150

Final Score: Titans 36, Jaguars 22 ✓
Titans -3 ✓✓ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Titans -150 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (two units): ✓✓
Patriots -6½ at Bills ✓
Cowboys -4½ vs Eagles ✓
Broncos -4 vs Chargers ✓

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): ✓✓
Patriots -½ at Bills ✓
Cowboys +1½ vs Eagles ✓
Broncos +2 vs Chargers ✓
Packers +9 vs Falcons ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

As evidenced by the paltry amount of wagers, I didn’t feel particularly strongly on any games last week – and it showed in the results. In retrospect it made no sense to venture on either a parlay or teaser considering that lack of confidence. Worst decision was backing a Minnesota team overdue for a loss. That one cost me not only on the Vikings-Eagles game, but also on a four-game teaser. Easiest bet was on Atlanta-San Diego being a high scoring game.

Week 7 Results:
9-5-1 Straight Up
7-7-1 Against the Spread
10-5 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 1-1, -20
1-unit plays: 2-3, -130
3-Game Parlay: 1u, 0-1, -110
4-Game Teaser: 2u, 0-1, -220
12 units invested
3-6, -480 on $1320 risk
-36.4% ROI

Year to Date Results:
59-47-1 Straight Up
59-45-3 Against the Spread
59-48 Over/Under
3-unit plays: 2-5-1, -1080
2-unit plays: 17-10, +1250
1-unit plays: 26-11-1, +1380
Parlays: 1-4, +160
Teasers: 3-2, +1470
49-32-2, +3290 on original $2310 risk.
142.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
28.6% ROI on $14,520 (132 units) of total weekly investments.

3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

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