Tag Archives: San Diego Chargers

NFL Week 15 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats Favored by 3 at Denver

John Morgan
December 7, 2016 at 9:45 pm ET

Week 15 brings a test to the theory that pro football has become over saturated. The NFL will televise games on four days next week. With college football finished with the exception of bowl games and playoffs, the NFL is now free to include Saturdays on their schedule. Don’t get too excited about that proposition though. Our first Saturday game of the NFL season takes place at Exit 16W in New Jersey, with the Jets hosting Miami. If you are so inclined to tune in, the game will be available on the NFL Network.

Since the byes went by-by football fans have been treated to a bounty of quality matchups. Unfortunately that is not the case in week 15: there are only three games between teams with winning records. The only good early game is the Lions at Giants, though it gets better after that. In the late afternoon the Patriots are at Denver and Oakland is at San Diego; it is a shame both games are on at the same time. Sunday night Tampa visits Dallas, and then on Monday the floundering Panthers are in Washington.

The odds as well as the won-loss records are prior to the week 14 games. Most of these lines will change after this weekend, but if you happen to be in Sin City before then you can wager up to $3000 on these early look-ahead lines at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook should you feel so inclined.

 

NFL Week 15 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

4-8 Los Angeles Rams at 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks (-12½)
Thursday December 15 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

7-5 Miami Dolphins (-3½) at 3-9 New York Jets
Saturday December 17 at 8:30 pm ET on NFLN

2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars at 6-6 Houston Texans (-5½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

0-12 Cleveland Browns at 6-6 Buffalo Bills (-10)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Tennessee Titans at 9-3 Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Indianapolis Colts at 6-6 Minnesota Vikings (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

6-6 Green Bay Packers (-4) at 3-9 Chicago Bears
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

5-7 Philadelphia Eagles at 7-5 Baltimore Ravens (-6½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

8-4 Detroit Lions at 8-4 New York Giants (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX

5-7 New Orleans at 5-6-1 Arizona Cardinals (-3½)
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

1-11 San Francisco 49ers at 7-5 Atlanta Falcons (-11)
Sunday December 18 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

10-2 New England Patriots (-3) at 8-4 Denver Broncos
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

10-2 Oakland Raiders at 5-7 San Diego Chargers (-1)
Sunday December 18 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 11-1 Dallas Cowboys (-9½)
Sunday December 18 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

4-8 Carolina Panthers at 6-5-1 Washington Redskins (-4)
Monday December 19 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN

 

Back to the current week, NFL fans are treated to the best Thursday night game of the year tomorrow. The Chiefs and Raiders are not only both headed for the playoffs, these division rivals are two of the best teams in the league right now. Oakland has won six in a row and for the moment hold the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have won eight out of nine since a week five bye and are 20-4 overall since late October of 2015.

Kansas City has the better defense and Oakland has the better offense. With Jeremy Maclin back in the lineup the KC offense is more versatile and should be able to exploit the Oakland D. The Raiders rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed and are 30th in yards per game. Oakland has survived thanks to turnovers, but Kansas City protects the ball very well. Derek Carr’s fingers are still not healed, and Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the three best home field advantages in the NFL. Spencer Ware could be in for a big game against a Raider defense that is surrendering 4.7 yards per rush (31st). Oakland doesn’t really have an answer for TE Travis Kelce either.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 20
Chiefs -3½ (two units) . . . . . over 46 . . . . . Kansas City -175

Final Score: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13 ✓
Chiefs -3½ ✓✓ . . . . . over 46 x . . . . . Chiefs -175 ✓

 

NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
November 13, 2016 at 6:00 am ET

Week 10 is highlighted by the return of the New England Patriots to NFL action. The 7-1 Pats host the 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl 49, arguably the best championship game in professional football history. The game kicks off at 8:30 pm eastern time at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough and will be televised on NBC.

 

★★ 5-3 Houston Texans at 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Jaguars -2½ . . . . over/under 42 . . . . HOU +120, JAC -140
Broadcast in northern Florida (Jacksonville, Gainesville), southern Georgia (Savannah) and Texas (except Dallas).

Jacksonville’s change at offensive coordinator to Nathaniel Hackett had mixed results. The Jaguars moved the ball very well against the Chiefs, with season highs in total yards (449) and rushing (205 yards). Those numbers are nice, but useless if you cannot finish off drives. The Jags moved the ball 66 yards on their first two drives but both ended in punts. Two drives (62 yards, 33 yards) ended on failed fourth down attempts. There was also a 74 yard drive that was done in by a fumble, and another ended with a missed field goal.

Most egregiously Jacksonville turned the ball over four times. If you want to know why Jacksonville has not lived up to the preseason hype, look no further than their 17 giveaways this season. The Jaguars own the NFL’s worst turnover differential (-12), which is a difficult task considering the Jets’ propensity to gift opponents with an interception.

Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 17
Texans +2½ (two units) . . . . over 42 . . . . . Houston +120

Final Score: Texans 24, Jaguars 21 ✓
Texans +2½ ✓✓ . . . . over 42 ✓ . . . . Texans +120 ✓

 

★★★ 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . CAR -170, KAN +150
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Virginia.

Kansas City’s defense has taken a step back this year. The Chiefs have had trouble stopping the run, allowing opponents to rush for 4.8 yards per carry (30th) and 125 yards per game (27th). That of course plays right into Carolina’s offensive game plan, to run the ball early and often. Since their week seven bye the Panther defense has played much better, averaging 15.0 points against. Thomas Davis has been particularly effective. Last week the 12th-year linebacker had 11 tackles (10 solo), an interception, pass defensed, strip sack and forced fumbled in the victory at Los Angeles.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Chiefs 20
Panthers -3 (one unit) . . . . over 44½ . . . . Carolina -170

Final Score: Chiefs 20, Panthers 17 x
Panthers -3 x . . . . over 44½ x . . . . Panthers -170 x

 

★★★★ 6-3 Denver Broncos at 4-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Saints -3 . . . . over/under 50 . . . . NOR -150, DEN +130
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of those televising one of the three other CBS games: Houston-Jacksonville, Kansas City-Carolina and Miami-San Diego.

The league’s top-ranked passing offense faces the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense in what should be the best of the eight early games. The New Orleans offense ranks first in total yards (435 per game), third down conversion (53%), passing yards (326 per game) and is second in scoring (30.2 ppg), red zone scoring (70.6%) and pass completions (69.7%).

While the Saint offense is a handful, their defense is another story. The Saints rank last in yards per pass attempt (8.1), yards per play (6.4), passing yards (300 per game) and 30th in both points allowed (29.8) and total yards (409). The good news for the Saints is that there defense has played better lately. After surrendering at 34 points in four of their first five games New Orleans has given up 23.3 points per game over the last three weeks. The Saints are also a much better team playing in the Big Easy. In their last two home games the Saints have defeated the Panthers and Seahawks. Overall New Orleans has won four of their last five to quietly close the gap in the NFC West; the Saints are now just one game behind Atlanta in the loss column.

The Denver pass defense ranks first in yards per game (183), yards per pass (5.2) and completion percentage (54.6%). The Broncos have been vulnerable on the ground however, and the Saints have rushed for 475 yards in their last three games. Denver is giving up 129 yards rushing per game (29th) and 4.4 yards per carry (22nd). Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian has completed just 52% of his passes over the last three weeks, and Denver has turned the ball over five times in their last two games. The Broncos appear to be heading in the opposite direction as the Saints, losing three of their last five games.

If New Orleans can continue to run the ball well then that will help neutralize Von Miller and the Denver pass rush. On the other hand should Denver be able to do the same then that takes pressure off Siemian – and also keeps Drew Brees and the Saint offense off the field.

Prediction: Saints 31, Broncos 27
Saints -3 . . . . over 50 . . . . New Orleans -150

Final Score: Broncos 25, Saints 23 x
Saints -3 x . . . . over 50 x . . . . Saints -150 x

 

★★ 3-5 Los Angeles Rams at 3-6 New York Jets
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Jets -1 . . . . over/under 39½ . . . . NYJ -115, LAR -105
Broadcast in southern California (except San Diego), Connecticut and New York (except Syracuse).

Both defenses should be able to pressure the opposing quarterback into making mistakes. And both offenses need to utilize their running backs more than they have been recently. Todd Gurley has run the ball just 14, 15 and 12 times over the last three games for the Rams, while Jeff Fisher has inexplicably had Case Keenum drop back to pass 106 times in the last two games. Similarly Matt Forte ran the ball just twelve times for the Jets last week even though he averaged 7.7 yards per carry – and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two more picks in the loss to Miami. The Jets now lead the league with 19 turnovers and have a minus-11 turnover differential.

Prediction: Rams 17, Jets 13
Rams +1 . . . . under 39½ . . . . Los Angeles -105

Final Score: Rams 9, Jets 6 ✓
Rams +1 ✓ . . . . under 39½ ✓ . . . . Rams -105 ✓

 

★★★ 6-3 Atlanta Falcons at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Falcons -1 . . . . over/under 50½ . . . . ATL -120, PHI +100
Broadcast in New England (except CT), Alabama, Arkansas, northern California, San Diego CA, south Florida (Miami, West Palm Beach), Florida panhandle (Panama City, Tallahassee), Georgia, Idaho, Topeka KS, Kentucky, Louisiana (except New Orleans), Mississippi, Missouri (except Springfield), Nevada, New Mexico, Syracuse NY, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas (except Houston) and Washington.

The Falcons face a tough challenge this week, attempting the rare feat of winning on the road in back-to-back weeks. Last week Atlanta’s unstoppable offense went over 40 points for the fourth time. After losses to Seattle and San Diego the Falcons bounced back with wins against Green Bay and Tampa Bay. Atlanta’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed, but it doesn’t matter; five times the Falcons have won games despite giving up 28 or more points.

Philadelphia began the season 3-0 but has lost four of their last five games. All of those four losses were by seven or fewer points, and all were on the road. Philly needs to get back to protecting the ball better. The Eagles did not turn the ball over until week five, but have coughed it up seven times in the last three games. Eagle RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai has struggled since being thrust into the starting lineup due to Lane Johnson’s suspension. Vaitai will have his hands full against Atlanta DE Vic Beasley, who has 7½ sacks.

Prediction: Falcons 35, Eagles 24
Falcons -1 (one unit) . . . . over 50½ (two units) . . . . Atlanta -120

Final Score: Eagles 24, Falcons 15 x
Falcons -1 x . . . . over 50½ xx . . . . Falcons -120 x

 

★★★ 5-3 Minnesota Vikings at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Redskins -2 . . . . over/under 42 . . . . WAS -130, MIN +110
Broadcast in DC, Iowa (except Cedar Rapids), Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina (except Charlotte), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.

The Vikings are in a free-fall, losing three straight after beginning the season 5-0. Minnesota is averaging just 12.0 points per game during that span, with their offensive line proving to be incapable of either pass protection or run blocking. Couple that with an unreliable kicker – Blair Walsh has missed four field goals and three PAT – and Minnesota just can’t be expected to score enough to win.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Vikings 17
Redskins -2 . . . . under 42 . . . . Washington -130

Final Score: Redskins 26, Vikings 20 ✓
Redskins -2 ✓ . . . . under 42 x . . . . Redskins -130 ✓

 

★★★ 4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-5 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Packers -2½ . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . GNB -145, TEN +125
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, Chico CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Cedar Rapids IA, Wichita KS, Michigan, Nebraska, Cincinnati OH, Cleveland OH, Springfield MO, St. Louis MO, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

The Packers should have the NFC North virtually wrapped up by now, but after losing three of their last four games – including three straight at Lambeau – find themselves in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. This will be the first of three straight road games for the Pack, who looked sluggish in last week’s loss to a mediocre Indianapolis team. Tennessee’s offense is playing better than it did at the start of the season, but their defense has regressed. The Titans allowed 19.0 points per game in September but have given up 31.3 points per game over the last four weeks.

Prediction: Packers 31, Titans 28
Packers -2½ . . . . over 49½ (two units) . . . . Green Bay -145

Final Score: Titans 47, Packers 25 x
Packers -2½ x . . . . over 49½ ✓✓ . . . . Packers -145 x

 

2-6 Chicago Bears at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dan Hellie, David Diehl and Holly Sonders
Bears -2½ . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . CHI -130, TAM +110
Broadcast in central Florida (Fort Myers, Ocala, Orlando and Tampa), Illinois and Indiana.

Tampa Bay’s defense is not getting the job done. The Bucs are allowing 29.0 points per game (29th), 399 yards per game (28th), 6.0 yards per play (28th), 118 rushing yards per game (28th), 281 passing yards per game (28th), 7.9 yards per pass attempt (30th), and are giving up red zone touchdowns 65.5% of the time (28th). Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey should be in line for a big game. The Bucs have given up 37 pass plays of 20 or more yards, which is the second most in the NFL. There is no home field advantage here; the Bucs are 0-4 at RayJay and the heat and humidity are no longer factors for visiting teams this late in the year.

Prediction: Bears 34, Buccaneers 24
Bears -2½ . . . . over 45½ (two units) . . . . Chicago -130

Final Score: Buccaneers 36, Bears 10 x
Bears -2½ x . . . . over 45½ ✓✓ . . . . Bears -130 x

 

★★★ 4-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 San Diego Chargers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Chargers -4 . . . . over/under 48½ . . . . SDG -210, MIA +175
Broadcast in Yuma AZ, southern California, DC, Florida (except Jacksonville), Georgia (except Savannah), Chicago IL, Minnesota, New York City, Philadelphia PA, Nashville TN and Wisconsin.

San Diego’s offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Chargers are averaging 29.8 points per game (3rd) and have scored 27 or more points six times this season. Melvin Gordon now has 1052 yards from scrimmage, second most in the NFL. Miami counters with their own star running back. Jay Ajayi is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and has rushed for 529 yards in the last three games. His productivity has taken pressure off quarterback Ryan Tannehill to carry the team, resulting in three straight wins for the Dolphins.

A referendum that would have raised hotel occupancy taxes to help pay for a new stadium for the Chargers in San Diego failed to pass in last week’s election. I will be curious to see if Mike McCoy will be able to convince his players to ignore the noise and focus on the game.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Dolphins 24
Chargers -4 (one unit) . . . . over 48½ . . . . San Diego -210

Final Score: Dolphins 31, Chargers 24 x
Chargers -4 x . . . . over 48½ ✓ . . . . Chargers -210 x

 

1-7 San Francisco 49ers at 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Cardinals -14 . . . . over/under 48 . . . . ARI -1100, SFO +700
Broadcast in Arizona, northern California and Reno NV.

Normally I would back any NFL team getting 14 points against a sub-.500 team, but these Niners are awful. San Francisco ranks last by a wide margin in virtually every run defense metric, including an unfathomable 193 yards per game. Now the Niners have to go on the road and face one of the best running backs in the league. David Johnson leads the NFL with 139 yards from scrimmage per game and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

Prediction: Cardinals 38, Forty Niners 17
Cardinals -14 (one unit) . . . . over 48 (one unit) . . . . Arizona -1100

Final Score: Cardinals 23, Forty Niners 20 ✓
Cardinals -14 x . . . . over 48 x . . . . Cardinals -1100 ✓

 

★★★★★ 7-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Steelers -2½ . . . . over/under 50 . . . . PIT -150, DAL +130
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA and Reno NV.

The Cowboys have been televised in either prime time or as the primary afternoon game every week this season, but nobody should complain about that this week. With linebacker Ryan Shazier back in the lineup Pittsburgh’s defense, especially against the run, is vastly improved. The Steelers need to limit Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott from gaining large chunks of yardage. The problem is that is more easily said than done when going up against one of the two best offensive lines in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger had his traditional poor performance in his first game back from an injury, but should have a better day versus a Dallas defense that is allowing opponents to complete 68% of their passes (third worst in the NFL).

Prediction: Steelers 27, Cowboys 24
Steelers -2½ . . . . over 50 . . . . Pittsburgh -150

Final Score: Cowboys 35, Steelers 30 x
Steelers -2½ x . . . . over 50 ✓ . . . . Steelers -150 x

 

★★★★★ 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 7-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 49 . . . . NWE -360, SEA +300
Broadcast in all markets.

Multiple changes in personnel and injuries have made the Seattle offensive line a liability. The result is a change in personality for the Seattle offense, with a running game that is one of the least effective in the league. That won’t help keep the Patriot offense off the field. The return of Tom Brady from a witch hunt suspension and Rob Gronkowski from a preseason hamstring injury have propelled New England’s into an unstoppable juggernaut. The Patriots are averaging 34 points per game over the last four weeks, winning by an average margin of more than 16 points per game.

Seattle has benefited from officiating decisions in three of their five wins, including an outrageous non-call against Richard Sherman for roughing the kicker against Buffalo last week. You know the officiating is bad when there was no flag, yet a player is fined for the hit. This game won’t be close enough to come down to a referee’s arbitrary decision though. For more on this game check out Seahawks at Patriots: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds and More.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Seahawks 24
Patriots -7½ (one unit) . . . . over 49 . . . . New England -360

Final Score: Seahawks 31, Patriots 24 x
Patriots -7½ x . . . . over 49 ✓ . . . . Patriots -360 x

 

★★★ 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 New York Giants
Monday, November 14 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Bengals -1 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CIN -120, NYG +100
Broadcast in all markets.

Cincinnati was saddled with a tough schedule to start the season, with games at Pittsburgh, Dallas and New England. If they are going to make it to the post-season then they need to find a way to win games like this one. The Bengal offense moves the ball well (395 yards per game, 6th) but doesn’t finish drives off well. Cincy ranks 21st on third down (36.9%) and scores touchdowns in the red zone just 52% of the time (19th). To make matters worse the Bengals not only settle for too many field goals, they are converting only 77% of their attempts (25th).

New York’s offensive line has not played well. The running game is so ineffective (3.2 yards per rush, 68 yards per game) it has virtually been abandoned. The Giants pass the ball on 65% of their plays, second most in the league, making them very predictable to defend.

Prediction: Giants 24, Bengals 21
Giants +1 . . . . under 47½ . . . . New York +100

Final Score: Giants 21, Bengals 20 ✓
Giants +1 ✓ . . . . under 47½ ✓ . . . . Giants +100 ✓

 

Thursday Night Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 16
Browns +7½ . . . . under 44½ (one unit) . . . . Baltimore -350

Final Score: Ravens 28, Browns 7 ✓
Browns +7½ x . . . . under 44½ . . . . Ravens -350 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (one unit): x
Falcons at Eagles over 50½ x
Packers at Titans over 49½ ✓
Falcons -1 at Philadelphia x

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): xx
Texans +8½ at Jacksonville ✓
Cardinals -8 vs Forty Niners x
Falcons at Eagles over 42½ x
Packers at Titans over 43½ ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Last week began well, picking Atlanta to win and cover (one unit) and the total at Tampa to go over (three units). The Saints over San Francisco was another road win, good for three units. However Green Bay losing at home to the Colts was a disappointment, costing me two units ATS and also prevented me from winning what would have been 600 on a parlay.

Week 9 Results:
9-4 Straight Up
7-5-1 Against the Spread
7-6 Over/Under
3-unit plays: 2-0, +600
2-unit plays: 1-1, -20
1-unit plays: 3-2, +80
3-Game Parlay: 1u, 0-1, -110
4-Game Teaser: 1u, 1-0, +300
17 units invested
7-4, +850 on $1870 risk
45.5% ROI

Year to Date Results:
76-55-2 Straight Up
74-55-4 Against the Spread
73-60 Over/Under
5-unit plays: 1-0, +500
3-unit plays: 6-5-1, +120
2-unit plays: 21-12, +1610
1-unit plays: 32-14-1, +1650
Parlays: 2-5, +1250
Teasers: 5-2, +2370
67-38-2, +7610 on original $2310 risk.
329.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
39.3% ROI on $19,360 (176 units) of total weekly investments.

7-4, +850 on 17 units (+45.5%) in Week 9.
11-2, +3470 on 27 units (+116.8%) in Week 8.
3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 10 Odds, Television Coverage and Distribution

John Morgan
November 7, 2016 at 10:00 pm ET

NFL Week Ten is highlighted by a rematch of Super Bowl 49. On Sunday night the 7-1 New England Patriots host the 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks on NBC. Al Michaels (play by play), Cris Collinsworth (commentary) and Michele Tafoya (sideline reports) will serve as the broadcasting crew.

On the Sunday afternoon undercard there are several interesting games worth tuning in to view. CBS has the single game and most of their affiliates will be broadcasting Denver at New Orleans in the early time slot. Oakland was able to neutralize Von Miller and the vaunted Denver pass rush last night en route to a 30-20 victory. The defending Super Bowl champs have now lost three of their last five games. The Broncos have lost their last two road games and suddenly find themselves in third place in the AFC West.

Fox has the doubleheader this week and their early time slot is primarily split between two games. Most of the northeast and southeast will receive Atlanta at Philadelphia. The Falcons own the second best record in the NFC but face the challenge of going out and winning on the road for the second time in two weeks. Philadelphia has stumbled recently with four losses in their last five games, but the Eagles are 3-0 at home this year.

The other early game on Fox receiving wide distribution is Green Bay at Tennessee. The Packers look to rebound after a lackluster performance in their Sunday night loss to the Colts. This game will air through much of the north central United States as well as almost all of the Rocky Mountain and Pacific time zones.

In the late time slot Fox is once again showcasing the Dallas Cowboys. This week Dallas is at Pittsburgh, which makes for a compelling matchup. The Steelers have lost three in a row but perform much better at home with the backing of Steeler Nation and their Terrible Towels. Pittsburgh’s sole home loss this year was without Ben Roethlisberger as well as a depleted wide receiving corps against the New England Patriots.

Thursday night brings us yet another stinkfest, with the Browns traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens. The final prime time game on Monday is between the Bengals and Giants. Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland are all off with byes in Week 10. Please keep in mind that the listings below are preliminary. Some stations will switch to another game between now and Sunday.

 

NFL Week 10 Television Coverage and Odds

0-9 Cleveland Browns at 4-4 Baltimore Ravens
Thursday, November 10 at 8:30 pm ET on NFLN; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Ravens -10 . . . . over/under 45½
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★ 5-3 Houston Texans at 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Announcers TBD (Harlan/Gannon?)
Texans -1½ . . . . over/under 42½
Broadcast in northern Florida, southern Georgia and Texas.

 

★★★ 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Announcers TBD (Gumbel/Green?)
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 44
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

 

★★★★ 6-3 Denver Broncos at 4-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Saints -1½ . . . . over/under 49
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of those broadcasting one of the three other CBS games: Houston-Jacksonville, Kansas City-Carolina and Miami-San Diego.

 

★★ 3-5 Los Angeles Rams at 3-6 New York Jets
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Jets -2½ . . . . over/under 42
Broadcast in southern California (except San Diego), Hartford CT and New York (except Buffalo).

 

★★★ 6-3 Atlanta Falcons at 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Pick’em . . . . over/under 50½
Broadcast in New England (except CT), Alabama, Arkansas, south Florida (Miami, West Palm Beach), Florida panhandle (Panama City, Tallahassee), Georgia, Kansas (except Topeka), Louisiana (except New Orleans), Mississippi, New Mexico, Buffalo NY, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.

 

★★★ 5-3 Minnesota Vikings at 4-3-1 Washington Redskins
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Skins -2½ . . . . over/under 41½
Broadcast in DC, Maryland, Minnesota, North Carolina (except Charlotte), Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and West Virginia.

 

★★★ 4-4 Green Bay Packers at 4-5 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Packers -2½ . . . . over/under 49½
Broadcast in Alaska, Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

 

2-6 Chicago Bears at 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dan Hellie, David Diehl and Holly Sonders
Pick’em . . . . over/under 45
Broadcast in central Florida (Fort Myers, Ocala, Orlando and Tampa), Illinois and Indiana.

 

★★★ 4-4 Miami Dolphins at 4-5 San Diego Chargers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; announcers TBD (Eagle/Fouts?)
Chargers -3½ . . . . over/under 49
Broadcast in Yuma AZ, southern California, central and southern Florida (Fort Myers, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach), Atlanta GA, Minnesota, New York City, Philadelphia PA, Nashville TN and Wisconsin.

 

1-7 San Francisco 49ers at 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Cardinals -13½ . . . . over/under 48½
Broadcast in Arizona, northern California and Reno NV.

 

★★★★★ 7-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Steelers -2½ . . . . over/under 50
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Arizona, northern California, San Diego CA and Reno NV.

 

★★★★★ 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 7-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, November 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 48½
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★★ 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 New York Giants
Monday, November 14 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Giants -2½ . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in all markets.

 

NFL Week 8 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
October 30, 2016 at 6:00 am ET

Week 8 is highlighted by a chance for the New England Patriots to avenge their only loss of the 2016 season. The Pats travel to Buffalo seeking their fourth straight win while the Bills look to rebound from last week’s loss to Miami. Back in week four an emotionally spent New England team lost to the Bills after shockingly beginning the season 3-0, much to the chagrin of every person who has ever had an office at 345 Park Avenue. The game kicks off at 1:00 pm eastern time and will be carried by many CBS stations in the eastern United States.

In the first game between these two original AFL rivals at Foxboro the Bills handed the Patriots their sole loss of the season. With rookie Jacoby Brisset under center Buffalo dominated, shutting the Pats out 16-0. Even though the Patriots are on the road against a 4-win team, the handicappers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have listed the Pats as the second biggest favorite of the week.

Meanwhile Roger Goodell and his minions have become a text book example of how to not arrogantly and condescendingly alienate your customers. It is amazing to see how such highly paid people turn one event after another in to such public relation blunders. The fact that Goodell remains in office speaks volumes about the lack of character of many NFL owners.

 

NFL Week 8 Early Games on FOX

★★★ 4-3 Washington Redskins ‘at’ 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals in London
Sunday, October 30 at 9:30 am ET; Kenny Albert, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Bengals -3 . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . CIN -150, WAS +130
Broadcast in all markets.

Cincinnati is the better team on paper but the Bengals still seem to be hungover from their epic playoff meltdown in early January. However, Washington is missing three key players: Josh Norman, Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff. Without Norman on defense and those two offensive linemen the Skins are very beatable.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Redskins 20
Bengals -3. . . . . under 49½ . . . . . Cincinnati -150

Final Score: Redskins 27, Bengals 27 (OT) -tie-
Bengals -3 x . . . . under 49½ x. . . . Bengals -150 -push-

 

★★★ 4-3 Detroit Lions at 4-3 Houston Texans
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Texans -2½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . HOU -140, DET +120
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana (except Indianapolis), Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Nashville TN.

After losing three straight by a total of eleven points Detroit won three in a row at home by a total of seven points. The Lions should be able to take advantage of Houston’s mediocre run defense (4.4 yards per carry, 135 yards per game) and inconsistent passing game.

Prediction: Lions 24, Texans 20
Lions +2½ . . . . . under 46 . . . . . Detroit +120

Final Score: Texans 20, Lions 13 x
Lions +2½ x . . . . under 46 ✓ . . . . Lions +120 x

 

★★★★ 4-1-1 Seattle Seahawks at 2-4 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Justin Kutcher, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman
Seahawks -2½ . . . . over/under 48 . . . . SEA -140 NOR +120
Broadcast in most markets.

Seattle played five tough quarters of football last Sunday night and now has to travel 2600 miles across two time zones. In the last seven games road teams coming off a 0-7, losing by an average of 19.3 points per game. The Saints should have won their third in a row last week at Kansas City. A well thrown pass by Drew Brees was tipped and returned for a pick six, turning out to be the difference in a 27-21 loss. Seattle’s defense is banged up and after appearing to gel, the Seahawk offensive line has taken a step backwards. That’s bad news for Pete Carrol’s crew. The Saints are averaging 36 points per game at home.

Prediction: Saints 34, Seahawks 27
Saints +2½ (one unit) . . . . . over 48 (two units) . . . . . New Orleans +120

Final Score: Saints 25, Seahawks 20 ✓
Saints +2½ . . . . over 48 xx . . . . Saints +120 ✓

 

★★★ 3-3-1 Arizona Cardinals at 1-5 Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Sam Rosen, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . CAR -155, ARI +135
Broadcast in Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina and western Virginia.

Arizona is in the same situation as Seattle, making a long road trip for an early game after a long, tough game Sunday night. Even though the Carolina secondary is not as effective as a year ago, Carson Palmer has regressed even more so. Carolina has had a tough schedule, they are better than their record indicates. The Panthers have lost to Minnesota and have three road losses to decent teams. Carolina has lost at Denver, New Orleans and Atlanta; their other loss was with Derek Anderson at quarterback.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20
Panthers -3 (one unit) . . . . under 47½ . . . . . Carolina -155

Final Score: Panthers 30, Cardinals 20 ✓
Panthers -3 . . . . under 47½ x . . . . Panthers -155 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Game of the Week

★★★★★ 6-1 New England Patriots at 4-3 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET on CBSIan Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Patriots -6½ . . . . over/under 47 . . . . NWE -260, BUF +220
Broadcast in New England, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, DC, south Florida (Fort Myers, Tampa and West Palm Beach), Georgia, Hawaii, eastern Kentucky, Louisiana (except Baton Rouge and New Orleans), Maryland, Michigan (except Detroit and Flint), Minnesota, Mississippi, New York (except NYC), North Carolina (except Charlotte), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania (except Scranton), South Carolina, Tennessee (except Knoxville), Texas (except Houston), Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Chicago IL, Cincinnati OH and Las Vegas NV.

In ‘revenge’ games against a team that they lost to earlier in the season, the Patriots are 8-0 with Tom Brady at quarterback. The combined score of the last four of those games is 166-51. Nose Tackle Marcel Dareus returns to the lineup for Buffalo, but the Bills will be without RB LeSean McCoy, WR Marquise Goodwin and DT Jerel Worthy.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17
Patriots -6½ (five units). . . . . over 47 . . . . . New England -260

Final Score: Patriots 41, Bills 25 ✓
Patriots -6½ ✓✓✓✓✓ . . . . over 47 ✓ . . . . Patriots -260 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Early Games on CBS

2-5 New York Jets at 0-7 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Jets -2½ . . . . over/under 44 . . . . NYJ -140, CLE +120
Broadcast in New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and Scranton PA.

The Browns have to win at least one game this year, right?

Prediction: Browns 23, Jets 20
Browns +2½ . . . . . under 44 . . . . . Cleveland +120

Final Score: Jets 31, Browns 28 x
Browns +2½ x . . . . under 44 x . . . . Browns +120 x

 

★★★ 5-2 Oakland Raiders at 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein, Steve Tasker
Pick’em . . . . over/under 49½ . . . . OAK -110, TAM -110
Broadcast in northern California, north and central Florida, and Reno NV.

The Raiders spent the week in Florida, so jet lag and an early kickoff is not an issue. The Bucs are fortunate to be 3-3. Two weeks ago they faced Carolina without Cam Newton, and last week they played San Francisco.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Bucs 24
Raiders +0 . . . . . over 49½ . . . . . Oakland -110

Final Score: Raiders 30, Buccaneers 24 (OT) ✓
Raiders +0 ✓ . . . . over 49½ ✓ . . . . Raiders -110 ✓

 

★★★ 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 3-4 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 30 at 1:00 pm ET; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Chiefs -3 . . . . over/under 50 . . . . KAN -145, IND +125
Broadcast in Illinois (except Chicago), Indiana, Iowa, western Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, Fargo ND and Knoxville TN.

The Colt defense is not good at all. Indy is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their passes (30th)and is tied with New Orleans with a league-low two interceptions. Kansas City’s balanced offense and bend but don’t break defense should be able to do just enough for a close road win.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Colts 20
Chiefs -3 (one unit). . . . . under 50 . . . . . Kansas City -145

Final Score: Chiefs 30, Colts 14 ✓
Chiefs -3 . . . . under 50 ✓ . . . . Chiefs -145 ✓

 

NFL Week 8 Late Games

★★★★ 3-4 San Diego Chargers at 5-2 Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 30 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Broncos -4 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . DEN -200, SDC +175
Broadcast in Arizona, southern California, Colorado, Idaho, southern Louisiana (Baton Rouge and New Orleans), eastern Michigan (Flint and Detroit), Montana, New Mexico, Charlotte NC, Bismark ND, Portland OR, South Dakota, Houston TX, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

San Diego won the first meeting between these two rivals, but circumstances are different now. This time the game is at Mile High, Gary Kubiak is back coaching and Trevor Siemian is healthy for Denver. Winning back-to-back road games is rare in the NFL. San Diego is not only facing that challenge, but also coming off an overtime game on the road. Then there is the Denver defense playing at home. There are too many factors that are not in the Chargers’ favor.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chargers 17
Broncos -4 (three units). . . . . under 43½ . . . . . Denver -200

Final Score: Broncos 27, Chargers 19 ✓
Broncos -4 ✓✓✓ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Broncos -200 ✓

 

★★★★★ 4-2 Green Bay Packers at 4-3 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Falcons -3 . . . . over/under 52½ . . . . ATL -155, GNB +135
Broadcast in all markets with the exception of Denver.

The Packers will be well rested, having last played in an easy 26-10 victory over the Bears ten days ago. Atlanta may be at home but they played to overtime last week. Aaron Rodgers should have a big game against a Falcon defense that is allowing opponents to complete 67% of their passes.

Prediction: Packers 34, Falcons 31, Packers 27
Packers +3 . . . . . over 52½ (three units) . . . . . Green Bay +135

Final Score: Falcons 33, Packers 32 x
Packers +3 x . . . . over 52½ ✓✓✓ . . . . Packers +135 x

 

★★★★ 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-1 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 30 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Cowboys -4½ . . . . over/under 43 . . . . DAL -210, PHI +180
Broadcast in all markets.

The Eagles surrendered 230 rushing yards to Washington two weeks ago. If Philly couldn’t stop the Skins’ ground game, how can they slow down Ezekiel Elliott? Should Philadelphia stack the box and sell out to stop the run, that just opens up the passing game. Dallas gets WR Dez Bryant back after missing three games due to a knee injury.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
Cowboys -4½ (two units). . . . . over 43 . . . . . Dallas -210

Final Score: Cowboys 29, Eagles 23 (OT) ✓
Cowboys -4½ ✓✓ . . . . over 43 ✓ . . . . Cowboys -210 ✓

 

★★ 5-1 Minnesota Vikings at 1-6 Chicago Bears
Monday, October 30 at 8:30 pm ET; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Vikings -4½ . . . . over/under 40½ . . . . MIN -210, CHI +175
Broadcast in all markets.

After losing their first game of the season the Vikings will be highly motivated. By the time this one is over Jay Cutler will be wishing that he was still on the sideline as a backup.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 13
Vikings -4½ (two units). . . . . under 40½ . . . . . Minnesota -210

Final Score: Bears 20, Vikings 10 x
Vikings -4½ xx . . . . under 40½ ✓ . . . . Vikings -210 x

 

2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars at 3-4 Tennessee Titans
Thursday, October 27 on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Titans -3 . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . TEN -150, JAC +130
Broadcast in all markets.

As expected the Jags showed that they are not yet ready for prime time. Maybe next year.

Prediction: Titans 23, Jaguars 13
Titans -3 (two units) . . . . under 43½ (one unit) . . . . Tennessee -150

Final Score: Titans 36, Jaguars 22 ✓
Titans -3 ✓✓ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Titans -150 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (two units): ✓✓
Patriots -6½ at Bills ✓
Cowboys -4½ vs Eagles ✓
Broncos -4 vs Chargers ✓

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (two units): ✓✓
Patriots -½ at Bills ✓
Cowboys +1½ vs Eagles ✓
Broncos +2 vs Chargers ✓
Packers +9 vs Falcons ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

As evidenced by the paltry amount of wagers, I didn’t feel particularly strongly on any games last week – and it showed in the results. In retrospect it made no sense to venture on either a parlay or teaser considering that lack of confidence. Worst decision was backing a Minnesota team overdue for a loss. That one cost me not only on the Vikings-Eagles game, but also on a four-game teaser. Easiest bet was on Atlanta-San Diego being a high scoring game.

Week 7 Results:
9-5-1 Straight Up
7-7-1 Against the Spread
10-5 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 1-1, -20
1-unit plays: 2-3, -130
3-Game Parlay: 1u, 0-1, -110
4-Game Teaser: 2u, 0-1, -220
12 units invested
3-6, -480 on $1320 risk
-36.4% ROI

Year to Date Results:
59-47-1 Straight Up
59-45-3 Against the Spread
59-48 Over/Under
3-unit plays: 2-5-1, -1080
2-unit plays: 17-10, +1250
1-unit plays: 26-11-1, +1380
Parlays: 1-4, +160
Teasers: 3-2, +1470
49-32-2, +3290 on original $2310 risk.
142.4% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
28.6% ROI on $14,520 (132 units) of total weekly investments.

3-6, -480 on 12 units (-36.4%) in Week 7.
9-3-1, +1300 on 17 units (+69.5%) in Week 6.
7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 8 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines – Patriots a 6-Point Favorite at Buffalo

John Morgan
October 19, 2016 at 11:00 pm ET

On Wednesday afternoon the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their advanced betting lines, also known as look-ahead lines. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not be played for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

Week 8 features a rematch between New England and Buffalo. In the first game between these two original AFL rivals at Foxboro the Bills handed the Patriots their sole loss of the season. With rookie Jacoby Brisset under center Buffalo dominated, shutting the Pats out 16-0. Even though the Patriots are on the road against a 4-2, the handicappers at the Westgate have listed the Pats as the second biggest favorite of the week.

Another team seeking payback for an earlier loss is Denver. The Broncos were stunned in front of a national audience last Thursday at San Diego, overpowered by a feisty Charger team that once again attempted to give the game away in the final minutes. In the largest spread of the week the Broncos are favored by seven.

At the other end of the spectrum Oakland at Tampa Bay is listed as a pick’em. The next closest line belongs to a game between two teams that have not lived up to preseason expectations. 1-5 Carolina is a one-point home favorite versus Arizona. The Panthers are coming off a bye while the 3-3 Cardinals look to keep momentum going after demolishing the Jets 28-3.

The Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers are all off with a bye.

 

NFL Week 8 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

 

Thursday October 27:

2-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 3-3 Tennessee Titans (-3) [NFLN]

 

Sunday October 30 Early Games:

4-2 Washington Redskins ‘at’ 2-4 Cincinnati Bengals (-3) in London [FOX]

3-3 Detroit Lions at 4-2 Houston Texans (-3) [FOX]

4-1 Seattle Seahawks at 2-3 New Orleans Saints (-5½) [FOX]

5-1 New England Patriots (-6) at 4-2 Buffalo Bills [CBS]

1-5 New York Jets (-3) at 0-6 Cleveland Browns [CBS]

4-2 Oakland Raiders at 2-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) [CBS]

3-2 Kansas City Chiefs (-2½) at 2-4 Indianapolis Colts [CBS]

3-3 Arizona Cardinals at 1-5 Carolina Panthers (-1) [FOX]

Sunday October 30 Late Games:

2-4 San Diego Chargers at 4-2 Denver Broncos (-7) [CBS]

3-2 Green Bay Packers at 4-2 Atlanta Falcons (-2½) [FOX]

3-2 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-1 Dallas Cowboys (-4½) [NBC]

 

Monday October 31:

5-0 Minnesota Vikings (-5½) at 1-5 Chicago Bears [BSPN]

 

 

As for Thursday’s game, Green Bay should win at home easily. Something does seem off with the Packer offense, whether it be the play calling or Aaron Rodgers adjusting to footballs that are not over-inflated. Green Bay’s defense is improved over recent years however, and Chicago does not have the level of talent to keep up.

1-5 Chicago Bears at 3-2 Green Bay Packers
Thursday, October 20 at 8:30 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Packers -7½ . . . . over/under 46½ . . . . GNB -350, CHI +290

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 13
Packers -7½ (one unit) . . . . . under 46½ . . . . . Green Bay -350

 

NFL Week 7 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines – Patriots at Steelers a Pick’em

John Morgan
October 12, 2016 at 10:30 pm ET

On Wednesday afternoon the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their advanced betting lines, also known as look-ahead lines. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not be played for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

Week 7 features a highly anticipated game between two of the NFL’s best teams. The New England Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a battle for supremacy in the AFC. Although the game is being played at Heinz Field, some Vegas handicappers have determined that the Patriots are a formidable enough team to negate the hometown advantage at Heinz Field. In a bit of an anomaly this is one of four games listed at even odds.

The big game kicks off at 4:25 pm eastern time a week from Sunday. The showdown will be televised on CBS and will be available in all but two markets (Atlanta and San Francisco) in the US.

As a prelude the Patriots host Cincinnati this weekend, and Pittsburgh is at Miami. Here is a look ahead at the full Week 7 schedule and their initial odds. Carolina and Dallas will be off with a bye.

 

NFL Week 7 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

 

Thursday October 20:

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10½) [CBS]

 

Sunday October 23 Early Games:

New York Giants (-2) ‘at’ Los Angeles Rams, in London [NFLN]

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-1) [FOX]

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) [FOX]

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-2½) [FOX]

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10½) [CBS]

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins [CBS]

Oakland Raiders (-2½) at Jacksonville Jaguars [CBS]

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Pk) [CBS]

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (Pk) [CBS]

 

Sunday October 23 Late Games:

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-5½) [FOX]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (Pk) [FOX]

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pk) [CBS]

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1) [NBC]

 

Monday October 24:

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-6½) [BSPN]

 

As for tomorrow night’s game, perhaps it is wishful thinking – but San Diego is overdue for a win. The Chargers have played well enough to be 5-0 – if the games were just a few ticks short of 60 minutes long. Which team is going to win one for the gipper? Denver, with their head coach hospitalized? Or San Diego, with Mike McCoy one more last-minute loss away from probably being fired? I’ll go with the home team and their proven quarterback over the road team on a short week, with either two inexperienced QBs – one injured and one shell shocked.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Broncos 17
Chargers +3½ (one unit). . . . under 45 . . . . San Diego +155

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 6 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines – Pats favored by 7 vs Bengals

John Morgan
October 5, 2016 at 11:30 pm ET

On Wednesday afternoon the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their advanced betting lines, also known as look-ahead lines. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not be played for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

Week six kicks off with what should be a pretty good game on Thursday Night with Denver visiting San Diego. While the Chargers are only 1-3 they have held a 4th quarter lead in every game this season. Last time the Bolts played Denver, in Week 17 of the 2015 season it was the same story. The Chargers led 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but a 23-yard touchdown run by Ronnie Hillman with under five minutes remaining gave Denver their fifth straight victory over San Diego.

The Patriots host Cincinnati and are listed as seven-point favorites. Last week the Bengals handled Miami with ease, though a disconcerting habit of settling for field goals kept the final score relatively close at 22-7. The Bengal defense looked much better with the return of Vontaze Burfict from his suspension for head hunting. If you recall Burfict completely lost his poise at the end of a playoff game in January against the Steelers with a dumb (and vicious) hit on Antonio Brown. The penalty – along with ensuing personal foul penalty on Adam Jones – gifted the Steelers with a game-winning field goal.

Elsewhere in the AFC East Buffalo is a 7-point home favorite versus San Francisco, Miami is a 4½ underdog at home against the Steelers, and on Monday night the Jets are 6½-point dogs at slumping Arizona.

At first glance the best bets appear to be Houston (-3) vs Indy and Pittsburgh (-4½) at Miami.

Here are all of the early advanced betting lines for NFL Week Six. Carolina has no early line due to the uncertainty of Cam Newton. Minnesota and Tampa Bay are off with a bye.

 

NFL Week 6 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

 

Thursday October 13:

Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers [CBS]

 

Sunday October 16 Early Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7) [CBS]

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) [CBS]

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (No Line) [Fox]

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4½) at Miami Dolphins [CBS]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears -2 [CBS]

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills -7 [Fox]

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions -3 [Fox]

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5½) [CBS]

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (Pick’em) [Fox]

 

Sunday October 16 Late Games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1½) [CBS]

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7) [Fox]

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6½) [Fox]

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3½) [NBC]

 

Monday October 17:

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-6½) [BSPN]

 

As for tomorrow night’s game, nothing cures a slump like a game against a bad team such as San Francisco. Even with a backup quarterback the Cardinals still have the better offense. San Francisco has given up an average of 36 points per game over the last three weeks. Drew Stanton won’t have to do much other than hand off to David Johnson (4.7 yards per carry, 128 yards from scrimmage per game).

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Niners 20
Cardinals -3½ (one unit). . . . over 42 . . . . Arizona -170

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture and Scenarios

John Morgan
December 18, 2015 at 8:00 am ET

NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture and Scenarios

Last week the New England Patriots vaulted in to the number one seed in the AFC by virtue of the defensive mastery over the Houston Texans, coupled with losses by the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. When the Miami Dolphins lost to the New York Giants Monday night the Pats also clinched their seventh straight AFC East title. Elsewhere the Arizona Cardinals also clinched a playoff spot and the Carolina Panthers clinched a first-round bye; on the other end of the spectrum six teams joined the Cleveland Browns as being officially eliminated from the playoffs.

 

In the AFC there are essentially three playoff races: the Patriots, Bengals and Broncos vying for home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, or at least a first-round bye; the Colts and Texans (and to a lesser extent, the Jaguars as well) playing for the AFC South title and the number four seed; and the Steelers, Chiefs and Texans battling for the wild card spots.

 

Over in the NFC there are realistically only two playoff races remaining. For all intents and purposes the Panthers will be the number one seed, Arizona number two, and Seattle will claim the number five seed as the top wild card. One of Green Bay and Minnesota will win the NFC North and become the number three seed; they will play at home to the other club, who will become the number six seed. The other playoff race is of course that of the NFC East; one of the Redskins, Giants or Eagles will have to represent that division, even though nobody seems to want it or deserve it.

 

In both conferences the race for the number five seed is nearly as meaningful as getting a first round bye. Both of the number five seeds will most likely be playing against a team with a .500 (or losing record). On the other hand the number six seed will have to go on the road against a ten or eleven-win club.

Note: for the sake of clarity and to reduce the risk of headaches I have not included any scenarios involving ties.

 

AFC – #1 Seed and First Round Bye

1. New England Patriots
11-2 [4-0 division, 8-1 conference]
Clinched AFC East and at least #3 seed
vs Titans, at Jets, at Dolphins
79% chance for #1 seed; 98% chance for a bye
– Can clinch at least #2 seed and a first-round bye with a win over Titans, plus Broncos lose to Steelers

2. Cincinnati Bengals
10-3 [4-1 division, 8-2 conference]
2-game division lead over Pittsburgh with 3 to play
at 49ers, at Broncos, vs Ravens
3% chance for #1 seed; 40% for a bye; 98% for #3 or better
– Can clinch AFC North and at least #3 seed if Steelers lose to Broncos
– Can clinch at least #5 seed with win over 49ers, plus Chiefs lose to Ravens
– Can clinch playoff spot with win over 49ers, or Chiefs lose to Ravens, or Jets lose to Cowboys

3. Denver Broncos
10-3 [3-2 division, 6-3 conference]
2-game division lead over Kansas City with 3 to play
at Steelers, vs Bengals, at Chargers
18% chance for #1 seed; 61% for a bye; 88% for #3 or better
– Can clinch AFC West and at least #3 seed with win over Steelers, plus Chiefs lose to Ravens
– Can clinch at playoff spot and at least #5 seed with win over Steelers, plus Jets lose to Cowboys
– Can clinch playoff spot and at least #6 seed with with win over Steelers

 

AFC South – #4 Seed

4. Indianapolis Colts
6-7 [3-1 division, 4-5 conference]
Currently tied with Houston; wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head victory
vs Texans, at Dolphins, vs Titans
60% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 40% chance of missing playoffs
– With a win over Texans, the only way Indy would miss the playoffs would be to lose their final two games while Houston wins their last two games

10. Houston Texans
6-7 [2-1 division, 4-5 conference]
Needs to win Sunday to avoid losing head-to-head tiebreaker with Colts
at Colts, at Titans, vs Jaguars
39% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; >1% chance of being wild card; 61% chance for no playoffs

11. Jacksonville Jaguars
5-8 [2-3 division, 5-6 conference]
Virtually no chance despite only being one game behind
vs Falcons, at Saints, at Texans
1% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; >99% chance for no playoffs
– Eliminated from playoffs with loss to Falcons, plus Colts beat Texans

 

AFC – Wild Cards

5. Kansas City Chiefs
8-5 [4-1 division, 7-2 conference]
Currently hold tiebreaker over Steelers and Jets based on conference record
at Ravens, vs Browns, vs Raiders
11% chance of winning AFCW and #3 seed; 63% chance of being #5 seed; 7% chance for no playoffs
– Eliminated from #1 seed if Patriots win, or if Broncos and Bengals both win
– Eliminated from #2 seed with loss to Ravens, or if Patriots and Broncos both win
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss to Ravens, plus Broncos win

6. New York Jets
8-5 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Steelers based on conference record
at Cowboys, vs Patriots, at Bills
7% chance for #5 seed, 25% for #6 seed, 61% for no playoffs
– Wins by Chiefs and Steelers last week dropped Jet playoff chances from 39% to 31%
– No clinching or elimination scenarios for Jets this week

7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8-5 [2-2 division, 5-4 conference]
Conference records: Chiefs 7-2; Jets 6-4; Steelers 5-4
vs Broncos, at Ravens, at Browns
2% chance of winning AFCN and #3 seed; 25% for #5 seed; 43% for #6; 30% for no playoffs
– Chance of missing playoffs dropped from 67% last week to 30% this week
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss to Broncos, or if Bengals beat 49ers

8. Oakland Raiders
6-7 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
All but technically eliminated from playoffs
vs Packers, vs Chargers, at Chiefs
2% chance for wild card, 98% chance for no playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed with loss, plus a win by either Jets or Chiefs or Steelers
– Eliminated from playoffs with loss, plus wins by two of Jets/Chiefs/Steelers

9. Buffalo Bills
6-7 [3-2 division, 6-5 conference]
All but technically eliminated from playoffs
at Washington, vs Cowboys, vs Jets
5% chance for wild card, 95% chance for no playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed with loss, or win by Chiefs
– Eliminated from #6 seed with loss, plus win by either Steelers or Jets

AFC teams eliminated from playoffs:
5-8 Miami Dolphins – at Chargers, vs Colts, vs Patriots
4-9 Baltimore Ravens – vs Chiefs, vs Steelers, at Bengals
3-10 San Diego Chargers – vs Dolphins, at Raiders, at Broncos
3-10 Cleveland Browns – at Seahawks, at Chiefs, vs Steelers
3-10 Tennessee Titans – at Patriots, vs Texans, at Colts

 

NFC Contenders

1. Carolina Panthers
13-0 [4-0 division, 9-0 conference]
Clinched NFC South division title and first round bye
at Giants, at Falcons, vs Giants
98% chance for #1 seed; 2% chance of being #2 seed
– Clinch #1 seed with a win, plus loss by Cardinals

2. Arizona Cardinals
11-2 [4-1 division, 8-1 conference]
Clinched a playoff spot last week
Hold tiebreaker over Seahawks (39-32 victory at Seattle)
at Eagles, vs Packers, vs Seahawks
92% chance for a bye
– Clinch first round bye with win at Eagles, plus Packers lose to Raiders
– Clinch division and #3 seed with win, or a Seahawks loss
– Clinch at least #5 seed with a loss by either the Vikings or Packers
– Eliminated from #1 seed with loss, plus win by Panthers

3. Green Bay Packers
9-4 [3-2 division, 7-3 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Vikings based on Week 11 win at Minnesota
at Raiders, at Cardinals, vs Vikings
8% chance for #2 seed; 58% for #3; 34% for wild card; >1% for no playoffs
– Clinch playoff spot and at least #5 seed with win, plus Seahawks loss
– Clinch playoff spot with either a win, or a Giants loss, or a Redskins loss
– Eliminated from #2 seed with loss, plus Cardinals win

5. Seattle Seahawks
8-5 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
Moved up to #5 seed with wins in last two weeks while Vikings lost twice
vs Browns, vs Rams, at Cardinals
>1% chance of winning NFCW; 69% for #5; 29% for #6; 2% for no playoffs
– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus a loss by either Giants or Redskins
– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Packers win, plus Vikings and Falcons lose
– Eliminated from NFCW title and #2 seed if Packers win and Vikings lose
– Eliminated from NFCW title and #3 seed with a loss, or if Cardinals win

6. Minnesota Vikings
8-5 [3-1 division, 5-4 conference]
The Vikes have lost two in a row but are still in good shape to make the playoffs
vs Bears, vs Giants, at Packers
cannot get a bye; 34% chance for #3 seed; 60% for a wild card; 6% for no playoffs
– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Falcons lose, plus either Giants or Redskins lose
– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Seahawks lose, plus either Giants or Redskins lose

 

NFC East

4. Washington Redskins
5-6 [2-1 division, 5-3 conference]
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants, 0-1 vs Cowboys
at Bears, vs Bills, at Eagles, at Cowboys
39% chance of winning NFCE; 60% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win

9. Philadelphia Eagles
6-7 [2-2 division, 3-6 conference]
Head-to-head: 0-1 vs Skins, 1-0 vs Giants, 1-1 vs Cowboys
vs Cardinals, vs Redskins, at Giants
44% chance of winning NFCE; 56% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win

10. New York Giants
6-7 [2-3 division, 4-5 conference]
Head-to-head: 1-1 vs Skins, 0-1 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Cowboys
vs Panthers, at Vikings, vs Eagles
15% chance of winning NFCE; 83% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win

16. Dallas Cowboys
4-9 [3-2 division, 3-8 conference]
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs Skins, 1-1 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants
vs Jets, at Bills, vs Redskins
2% chance of winning NFCE; 98% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or two of Redskins/Eagles/Cowboys win

 

Rest of the NFC

7. Atlanta Falcons
6-7 [0-4 division, 4-6 conference]
Falcons could lose nine straight to end the season after a 5-0 start
at Jaguars, vs Panthers, vs Saints
99% chance of missing the playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss
– Eliminated from playoffs with loss, plus Vikings win

10. St. Louis Rams
6-8 [3-1 division, 5-5 conference]
The Rams have not had a winning season since 2003, and Jeff Fisher has not coached a winning team since 2008
won vs Bucs, at Seahawks, at Niners
99% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
– Eliminated from playoffs if both Vikings and Seahawks win

11. Tampa Bay Bucs
6-8 [3-2 division, 5-5 conference]
Hey, four more wins than last year was a decent start
lost at Rams, vs Bears, at Panthers
99% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
– Eliminated from playoffs if both Vikings and Seahawks win

12. New Orleans Saints
5-8 [2-3 division, 4-6 conference]
Off-season plan: defense, defense, and more defense
vs Lions, vs Jaguars, at Falcons
99% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss, or if both Vikings and Seahawks win

13. Chicago Bears
5-8 [2-3 division, 4-6 conference]
A 1-6 record at home, including a loss to the Niners? Huh?
at Vikings, at Bucs, vs Lions
99% chance of missing playoffs
– Eliminated from #5 seed if Seahawks win
– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss to Vikings

14. Detroit Lions
4-9 [2-3 division, 3-6 conference]
Jim Caldwell is probably the next head coach to be fired
at Saints, vs Niners, at Bears
– Eliminated from playoffs last week

15. San Francisco 49ers
4-9 [0-5 division, 3-7 conference]
14.5 points per game – pathetic.
vs Bengals, at Lions, vs Rams
– Eliminated from playoffs last week

 

New England Patriots Playbook – Sean Glennon, A Great Look at Pats History

Steve Balestrieri
October 17, 2015 at 9:50 am ET

Inside the Huddle for the Greatest Plays in Patriots History should be required reading

Patriots playbook

There are a couple of super new books that will be of great interest for Patriots fans out there and as we get a chance we’ll review them, we will get the word out for some of the best and entertaining reads.

One of the books we’ve been waiting for is Sean Glennon’s newest work, “The New England Patriots Playbook: Inside the Huddle for the Greatest Plays in Patriots History” put out by Triumph Books.

Glennon should be well known to Patriots fans; this is his fourth book on the Patriots and his last one, Tom Brady vs the NFL, The Case for Football’s Greatest Quarterback was an outstanding effort. Glennon is also very active on Twitter and has been quite visible during the latest Brady vs the NFL goings on with the Deflategate fiasco.

Glennon’s latest work takes one on journey back to some of the most memorable plays, both good and bad in Patriots history. It is started off with a forward from Patriots Hall of Fame linebacker Steve Nelson. Nellie recounts some of his biggest memories including the infamous phantom roughing the passer penalty in the 1976 playoff game against the Oakland Raiders, the “Ben Dreith Game”.

Of course everyone knows the Malcolm Butler interception against the Seahawks in last season’s Super Bowl but more youthful Pats fans may not remember Jim Nance’s 65-yard touchdown run against the Bills in 1966 or when the Patriots shocked the back-to-back Super Bowl Champion Dolphins on the opening weekend of 1974 behind 5’5, 170 pound Mack, “Mini-Mack” Herron.

Of course there are numerous plays that take place in the Patriots dynasty of the Bill Belichick era including perhaps the most clutch kick in NFL history, Adam Vinatieri’s 45 yard field goal in a blizzard in the old stadium in January 2002 that tied the game and sent it into overtime. Of course Vinatieri had his memorable kick in the Super Bowl against the Rams that upset the “Greatest Show on Turf”.

Tom Brady’s overtime pass to Troy Brown for an 82-yard touchdown in 2003 put the Patriots in the divisional driver’s seat that they haven’t  vacated over a decade later.  Brown also had the fumble strip of Marlon McCree after McCree’s interception of Tom Brady that led to an improbable Patriots playoff victory over the San Diego Chargers in 2006.

That game led to a wild Patriots celebration at midfield that incensed Bolts running back LaDanian Tomlinson. The Patriots mimicked Shawne Merriman’s “Lights Out” sack dance following the victory. Tomlinson took great exception saying the Patriots “showed no class…maybe it comes from their head coach.” It is fitting that he bandied about the class word…since the Patriots taunted the Bolts with a dance, that San Diego taunted its opponents with all season….hello pot, meet kettle.

Rodney Harrison’s interception to seal the Super Bowl against the Eagles in the Patriots third championship in three years is a personal favorite. Harrison was an integral part of the Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX and brought a level of toughness to the Patriots secondary.

Of course no book on the Patriots successes is complete without a bunch of references to destroying the Colts Super Bowl dreams time after time. The Tom Brady – Peyton Manning rivalry has been notoriously one-sided, even after his move to Denver. But the Colts stories have a nice lead-in to this week’s game in Indy.

There’s even a chapter at the end of the book with all of the heartbreakers that the team has suffered in its 55-year history….and there are many. David Tyree’s Velcro helmet catch, the blowout in the 1985 Super Bowl to the Bears, the infamous 4th & 2 call against the Colts….they’re all here.

There are just too many stories here to list all of them, but die-hard Patriots fans will love this book, it is a guaranteed great gift for the football fan and one that will be thumbed through every time a discussion begins on, “Hey, do you remember when…”

Glennon’s latest book is another touchdown for him as he sets the bar even higher for his next work…it can be found in major bookstores or ordered on-line from Amazon.com here:

Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]

Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcast on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.

MNF: Steelers at Chargers Preview, Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

John Morgan
October 12, 2015 at 1:10 pm ET

Despite an abundance of injuries, NFL week five’s Monday night football game should be a good one. Although the two clubs are just 2-2, the San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers both have legitimate playoff aspirations for this 2015 season. Pittsburgh is coming off a 23-20 home overtime loss to the Ravens a week ago Thursday, while the Chargers eked out a 30-27 home victory over the Browns last Sunday. Both teams are currently 2-2 and are seeking to keep within two games of undefeated leaders in their respective divisions (the 5-0 Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals). Game kicks off at 8:30 pm eastern time and is broadcast on ESPN.

 

San Diego entered the week with the NFL’s number one offense (since surpassed by the Patriots), averaging 421 yards per game. Quarterback Philip Rivers has single handily carried the Charger offense, completing 71% of his throws and averaging 312 passing yards per game. San Diego will be without three starters on offense: LT King Dunlap (concussion), LG Orlando Franklin (ankle) and WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring), and has five other starting or key offensive players injured (C Chris Watt, RG D.J. Fluker, OL Chris Hairston, WR Jacoby Jones, WR Malcom Floyd). The Chargers do get TE Antonio Gates back after serving a four-game suspension for a banned substance, but the biggest obstacle for San Diego will be giving Rivers a clean pocket behind a banged-up makeshift offensive line.

 

The Pittsburgh secondary has improved since the debacle against the Patriots in week one, but it is still a work in progress. That group has been helped out by an effective pass rush; the Steeler front seven versus San Diego’s o-line will be the key to the game. If Rivers has enough time he is capable of torching the Pittsburgh defensive backfield with throws to Gates, WR Keenan Allen (33 receptions for 387 yards and 3 TD) and old friend Danny Woodhead (16 catches for 203 yards; 347 yards from scrimmage and 7.1 yards per touch).

 

The Steelers will have had 11 days to get Michael Vick acclimated to the offense, so he should be more productive than he was a week ago. With Antonio Bryant (an NFL-best 119.5 yards receiving per game) on the field, San Diego cannot focus on stopping RB Le’Veon Bell. Bell is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 95.5 yards rushing per game, and should feast on a San Diego defense that is allowing 4.9 Yards per carry (third worst in the NFL).

 

Both the Steelers and Ravens have had a tendency to let down and underachieve in games after they play each other; we saw a glimpse of that Sunday when Baltimore was defeated at home by the Cleveland Browns. Add in OC Todd Haley‘s often perplexing and overly conservative play calling, and Pittsburgh is far from a lock to win this game – despite San Diego’s woes on defense (they have allowed at least 24 points in every game thus far) and their MASH-unit of an offensive line. The Steelers are 2-7 west of the Rockies in the Mike Tomlin era; the last time Pittsburgh won a game in the pacific time zone was ten years ago. To get an idea of how long ago that was, Ben Roethlisberger was in his second year in the NFL.

 

Prediction: I don’t feel strongly either way in this game; it’s easy to find reasons why either team should win (or lose). I’ll go with the Chargers to win, but Pittsburgh keeping it close enough to cover before a Tomlin brain cramp gives the game away.

 

Pick: Chargers 27, Steelers 24

Steelers +3½; over 45½; Steelers +155