In this episode, we started the show by looking back at the Patriots victory against the Packers. We ended the show by previewing the upcoming game against the Titans.
The Patriots won their sixth game in a row and in impressive fashion defensively downing Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 31-17. The win, while not quite as big as the one over Kansas City was a big one nevertheless, given the pregame hype that was dropped on this.
Missing three of their key players on the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots defense rose up to play their best game of the year, holding the Packers to their season low in points and making Rodgers and the explosive Packers to earn everything they got.
So, check out our grades and see how the team fared in this week’s close win.
Tom Brady, despite missing Rob Gronkowski, Sony Michel and RG Shaq Mason on offense, and going thru a rough stretch in the third quarter still managed to put up 31 points on offense which should not be forgotten.
After struggling thru the third quarter and with the game on the line, Brady delivered and led the Patriots on two huge drives to get the winning touchdown and then put it away. Facing a 3rd and 7, he whistled a nice 17-yard pass to Phillip Dorsett that got the drive going. It finished up with the James White touchdown to take a 24-17 lead.
On the 55-yard touchdown pass to Josh Gordon, Brady expertly baited the young Packers corners, by staring down Julian Edelman, who waved for the ball. The corners bit and then Brady lasered a pass over their heads to Gordon who was wide open. Once he made the one player miss, it was an easy touchdown reception.
Rather than downplay the meeting of two HOF QBs this week, both Brady and Rodgers embraced it and engaged in a mutual admiration game where it is clear that they both greatly respect one another. Much to the chagrin of the national “Brady may be done” crowd, he outperformed Rodgers going 22-35 for 294 yards, with 1TD for a 99 QB rating.
Running Backs: B+
James White was injured in the 2nd quarter of the game and for a few minutes, all of New England was holding their collective breath. He had 31 yards on the ground and caught 6 passes for 72 yards and after the game seemed fine meeting with the media in the locker room, something the Patriots normally don’t allow if a player is hurt.
Cordarrelle Patterson had another solid game, the wide receiver is filling in for Sony Michel while he’s injured and showcased his tremendous speed while bursting off the line and contributing 61 yards. He scored a touchdown after ripping of a number of impressive runs on a drive where he appeared to be shot out of a cannon. He’s embraced his chance to help out the team and again deserves high marks.
Kenjon Barner had just one carry but on a blitz pickup, he’s sure to get praise from Brady when he leveled Clay Matthews who was coming straight up the A-Gap.
Wide Receivers: A-
The wide receivers had a solid night overall but were led by Josh Gordon. Gordon has given the offense the player that can go high and catch those jump balls that they’ve lacked. He high-pointed a 29-yarder over Bashaud Breeland down the sideline in the first half that was a beauty. He had another that was ruled out of bounds but was one on second glance that the Patriots should have challenged.
In our pregame matchups this week we wrote that this game was tailor-made for Julian Edelman. And we hit the nail right on the head for that one. Edelman caught six passes for 71 yards, he added 28 more on two very well disguised Jet sweeps. And then he dusted off his old Kent State throwing arm and completed a double pass to James White for 37 yards. Simply outstanding all-around effort.
Phillip Dorsett had that huge drive starter for 17 yards with the score tied in the fourth quarter. Chris Hogan wasn’t a big part of the game plan this week.
Tight Ends: B
Rob Gronkowski was out this week with ankle and back injuries and Dwayne Allen was the lone Patriots tight end…again. His value is mainly as a blocker and he’s very good at that and he once again proved his worth there. But on Sunday night, he chipped in with a big 21-yard reception on a pass down the right sideline. That bumped his grade up a bit.
Offensive Line: B
The offensive line had a nice comeback night after their down week in Buffalo. With both teams daring the other to run, the Patriot offensive line was able to open some holes against the Packers defense. They ran for 123 yards without Michel and utilizing a true ground game committee.
The pass protection overall was very good, but they did have their lapses in communication with Ted Karras in there that allowed two sacks.
Defensive Line: A
The defensive line was immense in this one. Despite the fact that the Patriots blitzed very little, they pressured Aaron Rodgers on nearly 50 percent of his throws Sunday night. The coaches moved Trey Flowers inside and he wreaked havoc all night long. Don’t be swayed by the fact that they only had one sack. The pass rush in this one was consistent and effective all night long.
Flowers was everywhere, he topped off his best game of the year last week with an even better one against the Packers. He and Adrian Clayborn combined for a sack, but the overall play of the defensive line was outstanding. Danny Shelton and Malcolm Brown barely played as they went lighter with Adam Butler and Flowers inside trying to create some interior pressure.
With going lighter, they dared the Packers to run and they did …to a degree. But Lawrence Guy provided the turning point of the game with a forced fumble on Aaron Jones which Stephon Gilmore recovered.
The Patriots linebackers initially looked like they were going to be targeted in the passing game, but either thru the coaching of the Packers or solid play, they never became a factor at all. The linebackers were good in run support despite the lighter fronts they were running. But where they truly excelled was in keeping Rodgers in the pocket and not allowing him to scramble for yards.
The containment (which we always harp on) was outstanding. Rodgers ran four times for just eight yards. And when he did attempt to scramble they were contesting everything. The entire front seven made it a very long uncomfortable game for Rodgers.
The secondary had another strong game against a much, much better group of receivers than they faced in Buffalo a week ago. Stephon Gilmore goes to the head of the class. He was squared up with Davante Adams for much of this game and shut him down. Against Gilmore, Adams had 2 catches for 15 yards. Overall he finished with six catches for 40 yards after having over 400 combined yards in his previous three games.
The used the defensive backs to blitz a few times and once it worked perfectly with Devin McCourty forcing Rodgers to unload a wildly inaccurate pass. But the other time, Rodgers recognized Duron Harmon coming, it was picked up and he rifled a 51-yard pass to the blistering fast Marquez Valdes-Scantling who beat Jason McCourty off the line.
Pat Chung had some issues with Jimmy Graham but on the touchdown pass, it was one of those plays where the DL didn’t get any pressure and Rodgers had time to wait for Graham to run down the right side and then cut all the way across the field where he got separation in the left corner of the end zone. With Adams pretty much a non-factor and Graham held to just 51 yards, this was the kind of effort the secondary has been looking for.
Special Teams: A-
The Special Teams also made a huge comeback this week. Stephen Gostkowski was automatic …as usual. Ryan Allen, despite only punting a couple of times had an outstanding game, pinning the Packers twice inside their 20-yard line. He averaged 49.6 yards per punt. The coverage units were much improved.
Cordarrelle Patterson had two solid kickoff returns of 36 and 28 yards to go along with his running back duties.
The Patriots coaching staff aced this test. With the national media in the excuse making department for Rodgers after he failed to get the better of Brady, they pointed to the coaching matchup of Belichick versus McCarthy as the difference. And in reality, Belichick can and did coach circles around the overrated McCarthy.
Josh McDaniels coached a fantastic game offensively, despite spitting the bit on a sequence where the Patriots had a 1st and goal at the one and failed to score any points. However, the decision to come out lightning fast immediately put the Packers on their heels. That was a brilliant move and worked to a tee.
McDaniels has a knack for knowing the exact perfect time to unleash those trick plays and they generally work out perfectly. The flea-flicker and the double pass by Edelman were perfectly executed. The latter had the Packers so confused, it appeared that there were no Packers on the left side of the field where White rolled down inside the five before being caught from behind.
Defensively Belichick and Brian Flores had an outstanding game plan, holding the Packers to a season-low 17 points. Rodgers had 259 yards passing but everything, every yard was contested. He averaged 6.2 yards per pass, had a QB rating of 89 and in the fourth quarter? He completed just 2-7 for 15 yards.
Mission Accomplished, Role Players Shine
The New England Patriots pulled out a tough victory over the Green Bay Packers 31-17 on Sunday Night Football in only the second meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, and perhaps the last.
Both quarterbacks looked excellent at times and struggled at others. But Brady rallied his team in the fourth quarter with two touchdown drives and the Patriots pulled away after forcing a fumble where it appeared Green Bay would take the lead.
Defense/Gilmore Steps Up:
The Patriots defense,much-maligned by the fans on social media actually played a very strong game, holding Rodgers and the Green Bay offense to just 17 points. The game plan was to mainly use Stephon Gilmore to shut down Davante Adams. Adams this week, proclaimed for all to hear that he didn’t believe anyone could cover him. And who could blame him? His last three games, he’s had 133, 140, and 132 receiving yards.
Well, Gilmore just put that thought to bed. Gilmore blanketed Adams to where the talented wide receiver was becoming frustrated to the point where the Packers were trying to force the ball underneath to him, just to get him involved. Adams finished the night with 6 catches for 40 yards. Mission accomplished.
The Patriots pass rush had only one sack but were getting good pressure on Rodgers all night long and his mobility didn’t allow him to make as many plays as we’ve seen in the past. Trey Flowers was outstanding and Adrian Clayborn had his best game in a Patriots uniform. Rodgers final numbers? 24-43 for 259 yards with 2 TDs with an 89.2 passer rating. Not bad but not great either. But Rodgers 4th quarter numbers? 2-7 for 15 yards. That is pretty impressive for the Patriots defense against any QB. Much of the talk pregame was “who gets the ball last will win”, well the defense put that to bed as well. Mission Accomplished 2.
Brady and Co. Keep the Packers Off-balance:
Brady finished 22-35 for 294 yards with 1 TD with a passer rating of 99.0. Julian Edelman had one pass and completion to James White for 37 yards. With Rob Gronkowski, Sony Michel, and RG Shaq Mason out, the Patriots had to get creative offensively…and they did. A Flea Flicker, a double pass and using WR Cordarrelle Patterson as a tailback again were just some of the things we saw. Patterson is quickly proving to be much more than the one-trick pony kick returner that the team signed this spring. He carried 11 times for 61 yards and had one touchdown and another taken away when the review showed him down just short of the goal line.
Josh Gordon, dislocated his fingers early in the game but played on and had five catches for 130 yards and a touchdown to ice the game. Julian Edelman had six catches for 71 yards, James White had six for 72 and added 31 yards rushing.
The Patriots got the opening kickoff and went on a blistering pace where they were moving faster than Han Solo when he did the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs. They moved easily down the field where the Packers’ defense was having trouble even getting set and never able to catch their breath. James White took it in from the 8-yard line for the first of his two TDs on the ground.
Rodgers answered and led the Packers on a 62-yard drive but only came away with three. It was clear, that although Rodgers and the Packers could move the ball, the Patriots defense was making them earn their way down the field and nothing was coming easy.
The Packers would tie it at 10-10 when Rodgers hit Adams with a 2-yard pass on 3rd and goal after he scrambled away from pressure. But the Patriots answered the bell and Brady led them on a 7-play, 69-yard drive, nearly all of which was on the ground, with Patterson battering his way into the end zone from 5 yards out and the Pats went into halftime up 17-10, because there were no heroics by Rodgers at the end of the half. The defense did their job.
Rodgers and the Packers took the third quarter kickoff and went 76 yards to tie the score. The big play was a 51-yard bomb from Rodgers to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The rookie has incredible speed and cleanly beat Jason McCourty and Rodgers dropped the ball in the bucket. On 2nd and goal from the 15, Rodgers had a ton of time and that allowed Graham to run all the way across the field where Rodgers lasered a pass in the back of the end zone. That tied the score at 17.
Brady drove the Pats down the field but they were stuffed on four attempts after getting a first and goal at the one. The Packers played some incredible defense but the play calling in that sequence was a bit curious, to say the least.
After trading possessions, Rodgers had the Packers moving at the end of the third quarter. After back-to-back great plays by Rodgers and Valdes-Scantling for 50 yards, the Pack had the ball at the New England 34. Aaron Jones carried for six yards, but Lawrence Guy coming up from behind, punched the ball loose where Gilmore recovered. Crisis averted and the momentum switched back to New England.
Brady and the Patriots went 76 yards for the go-ahead score. On a 3rd and 7, Brady hit Phillip Dorsett with a huge 17-yard catch to move the chains. Then they dusted off the double pass from Edelman to White for 37-yards. White powered it in and the Pats had the lead they would not relinquish.
On the ensuing drive, Rodgers was sacked by Flowers and Clayborn to force a three and out. On 2nd and 10 at the New England 45, Brady faked out the Packers DBs, by staring down Edelman in the flat. Two defenders raced up as Edelman waved his hand for the pass. Brady then looked downfield and hit Gordon who was wide open. He loped easily for a 55-yard touchdown. That was it, game over, thanks for coming and ensure your trays are locked and in the upright position. Mission accomplished 3.
So who stood out in this big team win this week? Lots of people but we’ll narrow it down to just three…
Stephon Gilmore – The Patriots paid Gilmore last year like one of the top CBs in the league. After a slow start to his career here, he was excellent in the second half of the season. This year, there is no doubt the Pats paid the right corner as he’s been simply outstanding since the spring.
Gilmore had the big task of shadowing Adams for much of the night and he did so frequently without any help. And he was outstanding. Adams had over 400 yards in his last three games and had 40 tonight. That is Ty Law/Revis territory folks.
Trey Flowers – This guy is really turning it on the past few weeks. And he was simply overpowering at times tonight. Despite being held frequently, Flowers was a disruptive influence all night long. He did a great job of setting the edge and getting pressure on Rodgers, on one play, beating his man and then a double team before forcing Rodgers to throw the pass off-target.
Flowers is the gaudy stat machine some edge players are…but he’s no less valuable to this defense than any of those players are to their respective teams. Perhaps even more so. He’s going to get paid.
Josh Gordon – Gordon had his fingers get dislocated a few times during the game, but toughed it out, had them jammed back in and kept going. That alone deserves praise. But his ability to go up and grab contested passes is something no other receiver other than Gronkowski is really able to do.
He put the dagger in the Packers with the 55-yard TD catch and run and had his first really big game in a Patriots uniform with 130 yards and a score.
“Once More unto the Breach”
The New England Patriots return home and face off next against the Green Bay Packers in yet another primetime game this Sunday night. Remember when the Patriots played on Sunday afternoons? This primetime stuff is getting ridiculous.
A lot of the fun of watching two future Hall of Fame QBs with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers going head to head against one another is lost when the ridiculous “who’s better” crap gets injected into the equation ad nauseam. Like our politics of today, neither side is going to budge, so just sit back and enjoy the offenses of each doing their thing on Sunday and revel in it. These matchups aren’t going to be around much longer.
This is an important game for both teams, the Patriots have won five in a row and are right in the mix for one of the top teams in the AFC and an all-important first-round bye in the playoffs. The Packers are a much better team than their 3-3-1 record and need to get on a roll. They nearly pulled off a huge upset last week against the undefeated Rams. So, how they react this week will have a lot to say about the rest of their season.
So, from a Patriots perspective if we can tear ourselves away from the Red Sox celebration for a moment, here are our Players to Watch on Sunday:
The Patriots very talented corner has been outstanding all season and is now facing arguably his toughest test of the season. Davante Adams is Rodgers go-to guy and he’s having an outstanding season. He’s caught 52 passes for 690 yards and 6 TDs thru just the first seven games of the season. He’s on pace for 118 catches, 1,577 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns.
Gilmore will have his hands full with the speedy Adams who said this week, he doesn’t believe anyone can cover him. And he may be right, the Patriots may have a plan for Gilmore to cover him underneath with safety help over the top. It would seem to be the normal Patriot M.O of trying to limit the top weapon of the opposition. If it isn’t Adams, Gilmore would draw Randall Cobb, not much of a break there is it?
But regardless, Gilmore has been outstanding since the first OTA session this spring. He should garner some serious Pro Bowl consideration this winter. The soft-spoken Gilmore has drawn Sammy Watkins of the Chiefs, Allen Robinson of the Bears and Kelvin Benjamin of the Bills the past three games. Those receivers combined for a total of five catches for 67 yards in those three games. Opposing QBs have only completed 28 percent of the passes targeting WRs Gilmore is covering. This should be a great matchup.
The Patriots best player on the front seven had a tremendous game against the Bills on Monday night. Six tackles, two tackles for loss, two QB hits and he should have had an interception of Derek Anderson but couldn’t hold on.
This week the stakes and the quarry are much, much tougher. The Patriots remember what Aaron Rodgers did to them in Green Bay a few years ago. The front seven will have to play a very fine balancing act. They have to be able to pressure Rodgers enough to get him to get rid of the ball asap but do so in a way that keeps him contained in the pocket. If he breaks containment, very bad things will happen and all of them will happen to the defense.
They’ll need a big effort from everyone on the defensive front seven but a lot of the pressure will be on Flowers to lead the way. Flowers coming out party as a rookie featured a sack of Rodgers in Gillette several years ago in preseason. The Patriots will be hoping to see much more of that on Sunday night.
The Patriots will be minus Shaq Mason on the interior of their offensive line this week and Ted Karras who subbed in for Mason when he first got hurt in Buffalo on Monday night. Mason hurt his calf against the Bills and didn’t return.
Karras is the Patriots top backup at all three of the interior offensive line positions but is probably best suited for the center position but he’ll be at right guard this week. And his job will likely entail matching up with Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark, both of whom are having very solid 2017 campaigns.
This will be a big test for Karras, he hasn’t played in a ton of games thus far in his career and the Packers will be looking to test not only his skill but his communication with the other offensive linemen when the Packers stunt, or blitz. There’s no pressure on Karras…right? He’s just on the stage with the two of the best QBs in any era and it is on national television to boot.
The Patriots Swiss Army Knife has a lot of pressure on him since the injury epidemic has hit the New England running back position hard. Jeremy Hill is gone for the year with an ACL tear, Rex Burkhead is on IR with multiple concussions and isn’t eligible to return until Week 14. And Sony Michel seemed to avert serious injury in Chicago when his knee got twisted during a tackle.
White has been just outstanding out of the backfield catching 55 passes for the Patriots for 459 yards and six touchdowns. His career high is 60 and he could possibly break that on Sunday night with another big game. The Packers at times play a lot of dime packages on defense and they may opt to try to take White away in the passing game by putting a defensive back on him rather than a linebacker which is a mismatch.
But with Michel’s status up in the air this week, (he’s questionable, but we doubt he’ll play this week), the onus will be even heavier on White to produce. We’d expect to see Brady look his way often on Sunday, especially if the Packers begin blitzing.
With Michel’s status in doubt and even Rob Gronkowski who is battling ankle and back injuries this week and is questionable to play, Edelman’s value as a circled member of trust with Tom Brady will no doubt play a big role this week.
With Pettine’s defense which uses the old Rex Ryan overload schemes and multiple blitz packages, there will be times where Brady will be forced to make a decision and get the ball out very quickly. And in the past several years, he and Edelman have been outstanding at working in sync doing just that. Many times they’ll both recognize a look presnap and with just a look between the two, they’ll know right where they plan to go.
Edelman had a big game in Buffalo and this game in Gillette against the Packers could be a tailor-made game for #11. Look for Brady to call his number early and often.
The New England Patriots return home for a Sunday Night Football game against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots finished off a perfect (4-0) October and have won five games in a row. They’ll be looking to make it six against the very explosive Packers who are smarting off a late loss to the Rams.
This week is the second Patriots prime-time game in a row and the fourth in the past five weeks. They’ve already appeared on Sunday Night Football twice this season. A week three loss to Detroit and the win over Kansas City. Amazingly enough, this is only the second time that Brady and Rodgers will be on the field against each other. That alone will be worth tuning in to watch two of the all-time greats to compete at the same time.
This week’s game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen locally on NBC 10 Boston. Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Michele Tafoya will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
The Patriots (6-2) defeated the Bills 25-6 on Monday Night. The game was actually much closer than that for the majority of the game but two late touchdowns put it away. The offense only scored one touchdown but the defense scored one and held Buffalo to only a pair of field goals.
The Packers (3-3-1) lost to 29-27 to the Los Angeles Rams last week in what seemed like a home game for them in LA. Packers fans outnumbered the Rams fans but Ty Montgomery’s fumble on a kickoff return sealed it after the Rams kicked a go-ahead field goal.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2018 to give some quick analysis on some of the key matchups of the game.
The Patriots and the Packers don’t meet very often, this will only be the 12th meeting between the two teams. The regular season matchup is tied at 5 wins apiece. The Packers beat New England in Super Bowl XXXI in the only post-season meeting. Green Bay beat the Patriots in their last matchup 26-21 in Lambeau in 2014. You would have to go all the way back to 2010 since the Packers last visited Gillette. That one was most remembered as the game that Rodgers missed with an injury and Dan Connolly, the Patriots right guard returned a kickoff 71 yards, nearly scoring a TD. It was also, coincidentally the last game the Packers lost that year.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs Packers Front Seven – Razor’s Edge Green Bay
The Patriots running game had taken off during the last month as Sony Michel has given the Patriots the balance on offense that they were looking for. It worked so well that they were averaging 38 points or better every week for that month. But injuries have really hurt the position.
Jeremy Hill was lost for the year with a torn ACL, Rex Burkhead was placed on IR with multiple concussions, (he can’t return until Week 14). And then Michel went down in the loss to the Bears. They were forced to use WR Cordarrelle Patterson in the tailback role in Buffalo and he, not surprisingly had issues finding holes to run thru.
The Packers have had some issues stopping the run and are allowing 119.1 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush. Part of that rests with the aggressiveness of the defense, Mike Pettine uses the old Rex Ryan Jets overload scheme and they can be susceptible to the quick hitters to beat the blitz.
With Michel in the backfield, the Patriots would get the nod here, but I tend to think that although he’s back at practice, he probably won’t be able to go this week. That gives the nod to Green Bay.
Patriots WRs vs Packers Secondary – Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots have plenty of weapons for Tom Brady to utilize with Julian Edelman back in the fold, although both Josh Gordon and Rob Gronkowski have been slowed by injuries. Brady also has Chris Hogan and the invaluable James White out of the backfield. Gronkowski, just coming off ankle and back injuries was laboring in Buffalo. On a short week, it will be interesting to see if he gets a jump back in his step.
More intriguing is the injury to Edelman. He took a shot to his shoulder/neck area in Buffalo and was in obvious discomfort the rest of the game. He missed practice on Weds. If he can’t go it is a huge blow to the offense, that is already hurting.
The Packers have been very improved against the pass this season. Led by Jaire Alexander, they cover much better and they have 23 sacks thus far. The overload schemes make things very difficult on the opposition. They allow just 221.7 yards per game thru the air which is the 5th best in the league.
One question will be who replaces Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at safety. Dix was traded at the deadline and played nearly every snap this season. He was the team’s leading interceptor (3) and second-leading tackler (27). They probably will turn to Jermaine Whitehead who was their go-to guy in sub packages, but we may also see CB Tremaine Williams at times. When Pettine was in Cleveland, he often would play Williams at safety. They also have 2017 2nd round draft pick Josh Jones, but he’s been mainly a special teamer this year.
If he can go this week, this will be another tailor-made game for Julian Edelman. His ability to make the tough third-down catches and with he and Brady having the chemistry to read presnap what the defense may do, he’ll be invaluable when the Packers blitz. We look for James White to get a lot of looks once again in the passing game. He currently leads to the team with 55 catches.
It should prove to be an interesting chess match between Pettine and Brady. The two have faced each other quite frequently and the GB defensive coordinator will show plenty of different looks trying to confuse Brady. They’ll show six or seven at the line and then drop seven into coverage or overload blitz on one side. With Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason banged up on the offensive line, the communication between the backups will be key.
Next up the Green Bay offense:
Packers RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor’s Edge New England
The Green Bay running game will scarcely miss Montgomery after his trade. He fell to the third position in their running game by committee group. They have found their man, however, in their 2nd year running back Aaron Jones. While he’s not the biggest guy at 5’9, 208, he is electric with the ball in his hands. Last week his 33-yard touchdown right up the middle sparked the Packers comeback in the second half.
The Patriots run defense has been steadily improving over the course of the season. Last week they held Bills running backs to just 46 yards in 19 carries. Shady McCoy had just 13 yards on 12 carries. The big men in the middle plus improved linebacker play has been the difference. Kyle Van Noy filled in for Dont’a Hightower last week and was outstanding in the middle.
Look for the Packers to feed Jones who had a career-high 12 carries last week more than that on Sunday night. With the Patriots possibly opting to bring A-Gap pressure with either Hightower or Van Noy, it will be the perfect antidote.
Packers WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Green Bay
The Packers Aaron Rodgers is averaging about 308 yards per game and has a plethora of talented receivers who can all be dangerous with the ball in their hands. It starts with Davante Adams who leads the team with 52 catches for 690 yards and six touchdowns. He’s a threat to take it to the house on every down if he gets free.
Rodgers also has Randall Cobb, TE Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and reserve TE Lance Kendricks who can chip into the passing game. Rodgers remains excellent at making plays with his feet, once he’s flushed out of the pocket. The Packers have given up 24 sacks but coming after Rodgers is a risky proposition.
The Patriots have given up a lot of yardage this season, that won’t change on Sunday but the key is making some stops in the red zone. Going back to that 2014 game, Rodgers shredded the NE secondary but they only scored two touchdowns. They’ll need that kind of effort again. The issue is pressure or lack of it from the Patriots defensive line. They have to squeeze the pocket without losing containment or they’ll get toasted this week.
Look for Rodgers to spread them out and try to run those crossers underneath that drive the Patriots mad every week. Adams and Stephon Gilmore should be a good battle to watch but the key this week is the secondary targets Cobb and Allison going against Jason McCourty. The Patriots will also have to watch Graham closely with Chung and LB help.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge New England
The Patriots have gotten another very solid season from Stephen Gostkowski but the rest of their special teams play has been wildly inconsistent. After getting two scores from STs in Chicago, they took a step back in Buffalo.
The Packers counter with the normally automatic Mason Crosby but he went thru a rough patch and has only hit 17-22 field goals this year. Their return game is where they miss Montgomery the most. They can either use Marquez Valdes-Scantling or activate WR Trevor Davis from IR.
Next up, who wins and why…
This much-ballyhooed matchup between Brady and Rodgers who both throw the ball extremely well may come down to which team runs the ball better. The Packers are a much better team than their 3-3-1 record indicates and could easily be a 5-2 or 6-1 team right now. Part of that rests on head coach Mike McCarthy. They’ve come out flat in a few games and they saw that they just can’t show up and win. They came out strong and played an excellent 60-minute game against the undefeated Rams last week and if not for Montgomery’s fumble may have won that one.
Now they travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots where they are awfully tough to beat. Rodgers has the personnel to do that and the experience to take what is out there. They won’t panic if they get down a score or two because they are so explosive.
Third downs and special teams play may ultimately decide who takes away the win here. While a lot of people are expecting another huge scoring game akin to the Kansas City Week 6 matchup, I see this one playing out like the 2014 game, with scoring in the mid to high 20s.
If this game were in Green Bay, I’d say the Packers and Rodgers would cruise, but it isn’t and Gillette is a tough place to play too. Like last week in LA, a late special teams return will spark New England to bring home a tough, hard-fought win. Patriots 28-27
In this episode, we started the show by looking back at the Patriots victory against the Bills. We ended the show by previewing the upcoming game against the Packers.
NFL Week 16 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Week 16 is unique, with neither Thursday nor Sunday night football – but with two games on Monday. Five teams have clinched a playoff spot and 14 others are still in contention for the post-season. There are plenty of intriguing games worth watching this weekend and next before the playoffs commence. The theory of home field advantage will be put to a test during these three days. Road teams are favored in ten of the sixteen games this week.
There is another oddity about this week’s schedule. Of the four games between teams with winning records, none are on in primetime – and three are broadcast in the early time slot. Fox has always had an affinity for NFC East teams due to their large market sizes. But if the network is not going to make the best game of the week (Falcons at Saints) their showcase game, then give it up to be flexed to Saturday night. Net result is that the two best games (NO-Atl and Patriots-Bills) are on at the same time. Those two back-to-back would have made for superior programming.
To see what games are being broadcast in your area, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.
3-11 Indianapolis Colts at 8-6 Baltimore Ravens
4:30 pm ET Saturday 12/23 on NFLN; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Ravens favored by 13½; over/under 41 points; money line -1000, +675
Baltimore has averaged 31 points over their last five games, in large part to an NFL-best plus-17 turnover differential. The Raven defense ranks 4th with 18.3 points per game and has a league best 33 takeaways. I don’t see how the Indy offense (16.1 ppg, 31st) can keep this game close.
Pick: Ravens 31, Colts 13
Ravens -13½, over 41
11-3 Minnesota Vikings at 7-7 Green Bay Packers
8:30 pm ET Saturday 12/23 on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Vikings favored by 9; over/under 41 points; money line -430, +340
The Vikings are playing for at minimum a first round bye, while Green Bay is eliminated. Minnesota’s defense will dominate a team that may be giving second stringers playing time with an eye on 2018.
Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 13
Vikings -9, under 41
11-3 Pittsburgh Steelers at 4-10 Houston Texans
4:30 pm ET, Monday 12/25 on NBC/NFLN; Mike Tirico, Kurt Warner
Steelers favored by 9½; over/under 45 points; money line -450, +350
I’m interested to see if Pittsburgh comes out with their hair on fire after last week’s last second loss. Or will the Steelers play down to their opponent’s level, as they often do. Pittsburgh is notorious for not playing well on the road either, and no Antonio Brown does not help matters. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Pittsburgh comes out flat, but Houston has lost too many key players over the course of their season.
Pick: Steelers 24, Texans 20
Texans +9½, under 45
6-8 Oakland Raiders at 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles
8:30 pm ET Monday 12/25 on ESPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
Eagles favored by 9; over/under 47½ points; money line -400, +330
Oakland is all but mathematically eliminated, and traveling cross country for a meaningless game. Philly wants to clinch the number one seed in the NFC and Nick Foles (4 TDs last week) showed the 31.3 ppg offense is still in capable hands. The Eagle defense should be able to handle Oakland and control this game.
Pick: Eagles 34, Raiders 17
Eagles -9, over 47½
Early CBS Games
8-6 Buffalo Bills at 11-3 New England Patriots
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Patriots favored by 12; over/under 47½ points; money line -750, +525
This should be a great game, as both teams have plenty to play for. The Patriots need two wins to insure home field throughout the playoffs. Buffalo needs a victory (and help) to make the playoffs. To add to the drama this is a revenge game for the Bills after the hit three weeks ago that resulted in Rob Gronkowski’s suspension. Sean McDermott came up with a great defensive game plan for Buffalo in the last meeting; it will be interesting to see what he has in store Sunday.
Pick: Patriots 27, Bills 20
Bills +12, under 47½
7-7 Los Angeles Chargers at 5-9 New York Jets
Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Chargers favored by 7; over/under 42½ points; money line -300, +250
After a surprisingly good start, the Jets are 2-7 in their last nine games. As the season has progressed their lack of quality depth has become apparent. The Chargers are in a must-win spot here; the Jets can go back to their original plan of tanking the 2017 season.
Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 17
Chargers -7, over 42½
6-8 Miami Dolphins at 8-6 Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Chiefs favored by 10½; over/under 43½ points; money line -550, +425
Dolphins on the road outdoors in cold weather equals a Miami loss. Kansas City has finally righted their mid-season swoon with home victories over the Raiders and Chargers. Make it three in a row for the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 14
Chiefs -10½, under 43½
5-9 Denver Broncos at 6-8 Washington Redskins
Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
Redskins favored by 3½; over/under 40½ points; money line -180, +160
Washington is again in a difficult position due to injuries on their offensive line. Denver has finally got it together the last couple of weeks, just in time to win enough games to miss out on a top-5 draft pick.
Pick: Broncos 20, Redskins 17
Broncos +3½, under 40½
0-14 Cleveland Browns at 4-10 Chicago Bears
Tom McCarthy, Steve Beuerlein
Bears favored by 6½; over/under 38 points; money line -280, +240
Chicago has played well at home this year, beating the Steelers and Panthers. Their home losses have all been close (an average of 5 points), and mostly to good teams (Falcons, Vikings, Packers). Cleveland’s 0-16 parade plans remain intact.
Pick: Bears 24, Browns 13
Bears -6½, under 38
Early Games on Fox
9-5 Atlanta Falcons at 10-4 New Orleans Saints
Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis
Saints favored by 5½; over/under 52½ points; money line -240, +200
Set your DVR so you can record and watch this game after the Patriots-Bills ends. Two weeks ago the Falcons beat the Saints 20-17 in Atlanta. It is really difficult to sweep a good division rival. The Falcons should be able to keep it close, especially now that RB Tevin Coleman (concussion) has been cleared to play.
Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24
Falcons +5½, under 51½
10-4 Los Angeles Rams at 8-6 Tennessee Titans
Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Rams favored by 6½; over/under 47½ points; money line -290, +240
On one hand you have a west coast team having to travel 2000 miles and play a game three hours earlier than usual. On the other hand the Rams are a far superior team than the Titans. LA is back in sync now that Robert Woods is back on the playing field.
Pick: Rams 24, Titans 20
Titans +6½, under 47½
8-6 Detroit Lions at 5-9 Cincinnati Bengals
Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman
Lions favored by 4; over/under 44 points; money line -210, +180
This will be the final home game for Cincy head coach Marvin Lewis. Maybe he and Jeff Fisher can form a speaking tour and teach people how to retain a job much longer than they deserve.
Pick: Lions 24, Bengals 17
Lions -4, under 44
4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 10-4 Carolina Panthers
Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber
Panthers favored by 10; over/under 46½ points; money line -475, +375
Can somebody please explain to me why Carolina LB Thomas Davis was originally suspended for two games, rather than one? I think Roger Goodell uses one of those magic eight-balls from the sixties when deciding his punishments.
Pick: Panthers 34, Bucs 17
Panthers -10, over 46½
10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars at 4-10 San Francisco 49ers
Andrew Catalon, James Lofton (CBS)
Jaguars favored by 4; over/under 42 points; money line -210, +175
When Jimmy Garoppolo was traded, Pats fans wished him well. Now Patriot Nation is full of hand wringing seller’s remorse. The Niners have won three in a row since inserting Jimmy G as their starting quarterback, after a 1-10 start. Jacksonville could be in for a battle on the road here, especially if the Jags have to count on Blake Bortles at critical junctures.
Jaguars 23, Forty Niners 20
Niners +4, over 42
8-6 Seattle Seahawks at 8-6 Dallas Cowboys
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman (Fox)
Cowboys favored by 5; over/under 47½ points; money line -240, +200
Dallas has won three straight and have RB Ezekiel Elliott for this game. His presence completely changes the Cowboy offense. Seattle’s defense is just a shell of its former self to injuries. Is it time to replace Pete Carroll?
Pick: Cowboys 27, Seahawks 17
Cowboys +5, under 47½
2-12 New York Giants at 6-8 Arizona Cardinals
Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth (Fox)
Cardinals favored by 3½; over/under 40 points; money line -185, +165
Ho hum, a battle of two under achieving teams. Giants are the bigger mess right now and on the road.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Giants 13
Cardinals +3½, under 40
More than half of the remaining NFL Week 12 games have odds of seven or more points. On paper there are few competitive games, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot. Last week the Chiefs were double-digit favorites but lost to a one-win Giants club in disarray. Washington was an injury riddled 7½ point road dog up against a hot team on a seven game winning streak. The 4-5 Skins were up by 15 with less than two minutes to play and nearly upset the Saints before losing in overtime in one of the season’s most exciting games. On the other hand there are the Patriots, who have not lost since October 1st – and have covered the spread four weeks in a row.
Should the Patriots-Dolphins game turn into a blowout, there may be some competitive games in the early time slot. Buffalo is at KC in a battle between two fading teams. Tampa Bay at Atlanta could be interesting should the Falcons have a letdown after winning at Seattle. In the late time slot the Saints at Rams should be a great game. The night games are nothing special. Green Bay at Pittsburgh would have been a good game if Aaron Rodgers was the QB rather than Brett Hundley. Monday night it is Houston at Baltimore. The only reason to watch that is to witness a potential John Harbaugh meltdown and another Baltimore loss.
Unfortunately New England fans are once again saddled with Ian Eagle and the incompetent Dan Fouts as the broadcast crew for Sunday’s game. It boggles my mind that somebody at CBS considers this pair to be their second best set of announcers. How can anyone possibly consider those two to be better than Greg Gumbel and Trent Green, or Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon?
For a full list of announcers and to see what games are being broadcast in your are, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.
Early Games on CBS
4-6 Miami Dolphins at 8-2 New England Patriots
Patriots favored by 16½; over/under 47½ points; money line -1900, +1000
The Patriots have often struggled against quarterbacks that they have little film to review for tendencies and weaknesses. Does that mean that Matt Moore will lead the Dolphins to an upset? Of course not. The offense is clicking despite several injuries, and the defense has made a 180 turn from the first month of the season.
Pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17
New England +16½, over 47½
0-10 Cleveland Browns at 4-6 Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals favored by 8; over/under 38 points; money line -410, +340
DeShone Kizer has thrown 14 interceptions, most in the NFL. Cleveland’s defense has been decent, but having to overcome all those turnovers is too much to ask for.
Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 13
Cincinnati -8, under 38
5-5 Buffalo Bills at 6-4 Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs favored by 10; over/under 46½ points; money line -500, +400
Buffalo HC Sean McDermott may be in over his head. With a 5-4 record and the Bills holding onto a wild card spot, he inexplicably benched QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is not an elite quarterback by any means, but the replacement was a 5th round rookie going on the road to make his first NFL start. Nathan Peterman proceeded to throw an interception on four of the first five drives, and was mercifully yanked after his fifth pick. McDermott’s reasoning was that he wanted to see what Peterman had and how he could do. Isn’t that what a blowout game in the fourth quarter is for? Or preseason? Or games in December after you have been eliminated from the playoffs, as opposed to a midseason game when you have a winning record?
Pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 20
Kansas City -10, over 46½
Early Games on Fox
3-7 Chicago Bears at 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles favored by 14; over/under 44½ points; money line -1100, +700
Philly has won eight in a row and is coming off a huge win over division rival Dallas. The Eagles will be on the road for the next three games, playing the Rams, Seahawks and Giants. The Bears have already taken advantage of superior opponents in trap games twice, defeating the Steelers and Panthers. While an upset would be shocking, A close game would not be a surprise.
Pick: Eagles 24, Bears 20
Chicago +14, under 44½
4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6-4 Atlanta Falcons
Falcons favored by 9½; over/under 48½ points; money line -475, +375
In their victory last week at Miami the Bucs allowed three pass plays of over 40 yards. That kind of pass defense is going to be in a world of hurt against Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Atlanta offense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Bucs 21
Tampa Bay +9½, over 48½
7-3 Carolina Panthers at 4-6 New York Jets
Panthers favored by 5½; over/under 40 points; money line -250, +210
Will Carolina be well rested or rusty coming off the bye? If the Panthers are looking ahead to next week’s game at New Orleans, the fundamentally sound Jet defense could cause enough problems to pull off an upset.
Pick: Panthers 20, Jets 17
New York Jets +5½, under 40
6-4 Tennessee Titans at 3-7 Indianapolis Colts
Titans favored by 3; over/under 45½ points; money line -165, +145
The Titans bounce back from last Thursday’s loss to Pittsburgh by feasting on an inferior opponent.
Pick: Titans 24, Colts 17
Tennessee -3, under 45½
Late Afternoon Games
6-4 Seattle Seahawks at 1-9 San Francisco 49ers
4:05 ET on Fox
Seahawks favored by 6½; over/under 45½ points; money line -300, +250
The 49ers may be able to keep it close thanks to all the injuries on Seattle’s defense. The Niners just don’t have enough talent to beat the Seahawks though.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Niners 20
Seattle -6½, over 45½
8-2 New Orleans Saints at 7-3 Los Angeles Rams
4:25 ET on CBS
Rams favored by 2½; over/under 53½ points; money line -145, +125
By far the best game of the week. The Rams have beaten only one good team all season (Jacksonville), and were a bit disappointing in last week’s loss at Minnesota. I’m expecting them to bounce back at home against New Orleans. The Saints defense has been opportunistic (ten interceptions, 13 takeaways) but could be overpowered here. New Orleans gave up 31 points at home to the injury riddled Redskins last week, and haven’t faced an offense this good since their week two loss to the Patriots.
Pick: Rams 31, Saints 27
LA Rams -2½, over 53½
7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 4-6 Arizona Cardinals
4:25 ET on CBS
Jaguars favored by 5½; over/under 38 points; money line -240, +200
The Jaguar defense is allowing just 14.1 points per game, by far the lowest in the NFL. Jacksonville should be able to feast on Blaine Gabbert and an anemic Arizona offense that has scored more than 21 points just twice all year.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Cardinals 13
Jacksonville -5½, under 38
3-7 Denver Broncos at 4-6 Oakland Raiders
4:25 ET on CBS
Raiders favored by 5; over/under 43 points; money line -240, +200
Remember when the experts declared the AFC West to be the best division in the NFL before the 2017 season began? Not much of that talk now, thanks to these two disappointing teams that failed to live up to the hype. Denver has lost six in a row, their worst losing streak since 1990. They could actually benefit from Tim Tebow at this point.
Pick: Raiders 24, Broncos 21
Denver +5, over 43
Prime Time Games
5-5 Green Bay Packers at 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday night at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Steelers favored by 14; over/under 43½ points; money line -1000, +600
Last week Pittsburgh was able to stop Tennessee’s running game, force the Titans into predictable pass plays, and take advantage of poor down-and distance situations. That resulted in four Marcus Mariotta interceptions and a 40-17 victory. The same formula worked for Baltimore last week in their 23-0 rout over the Packers as Green Bay turned the ball over five times. No reason to believe this game won’t be more of the same.
Pick: Steelers 31, Packers 10
Pittsburgh -14, under 43½
4-6 Houston Texans at 5-5 Baltimore Ravens
Monday night at 8:30 pm ET on espn
Ravens favored by 7; over/under 38 points; money line -320, +260
Tom Savage has ten turnovers (3 picks, 7 fumbles) in just 125 pass attempts. He has been sacked 13 times and is averaging a league-worst 4.54 yards per dropback. This all plays right into the strength of Baltimore’s defense, to force turnovers (an NFL-best 23).
Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 13
Ravens -7, under 37
The Patriots versus Raiders in Mexico City highlights a decent slate of pro football games in Week 11. Four games in particular stand out, conveniently with one in each time slot.
The day kicks off with a matchup of division leaders, a rarity in the early time slot. The 7-2 Rams have won four straight and bring their top ranked offense (32.9 ppg) to Minnesota. The 7-2 Vikings have won five in a row and are allowing just 18.3 points per game. Minnesota is listed as a 2½ point favorite.
The Patriots and Raiders renew their decades long rivalry in the late afternoon time slot. New England puts a five game winning streak on the line in their second consecutive game on the road at high altitude. The Patriots need a win to keep pace with Pittsburgh for the best record in the AFC, and to maintain their two game lead in the AFC East. 4-5 Oakland has been inconsistent this year but still possess plenty of talent on offense. The Raiders need a victory to keep hopes of winning the AFC West alive.
Sunday night has a good game with Philadelphia at Dallas. The Eagles own the NFL’s best record at 8-1, and have a league-high seven game winning streak. The 5-4 Cowboys need a win to stay in contention for a wild card spot, as nine other NFC teams have at least five wins. With all that has been happening off the field for Jerry Jones, a victory would be sweet. The Jerrah now knows first hand with what it is like to be on the wrong side of Roger Goodell’s erratic system of lies punishment.
Week 11 wraps up with a good game on Monday Night. 5-4 Atlanta travels to Seattle to play the 6-3 Seahawks. The defending NFC champs are in third place, two games behind New Orleans. The Falcons need a win here to not only stay close in the NFC South, but to just keep up as a wild card contender. Seattle is only one game behind the Rams in the NFC West but they have bigger issues. The Seahawks will be without Pro Bowl CB Richard Sherman (ruptured Achilles’ tendon) and Pro Bowl SS Kam Chancellor (neck stinger).
For a full list of announcers and to see what games are being broadcast in your are, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.
Early Games on Fox
5-4 Detroit Lions at 3-6 Chicago Bears
Lions favored by 3; over/under 41 points; money line -150, +130
The Bears continue to find a way to lose close games. Mitch Trubisky has a bright future but right now he’s going through the growing pains of being a rookie quarterback on a bad football team.
Pick: Lions 21, Bears 17
Detroit -3, under 41
3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-5 Miami Dolphins
Pick’em; over/under 41½ points; money line -110, -110
How much of a distraction will the Uber allegations against Jameis Winston be for the Bucs? This game comes down to which CB gets burnt more badly, Miami’s Xavien Howard or Tampa’s nickel duo of Javien Elliott and Robert McClain.
Pick: Buccaneers 20, Dolphins 17
Tampa Bay -0, under 41½
7-2 Los Angeles Rams at 7-2 Minnesota Vikings
Vikings favored by 2½; over/under 45½ points; money line -135, +115
Most of the talk has been about Jared Goff and the #1 LA offense against a tough Viking defense. The Rams are well balanced, with Aaron Donald leading the way in Wade Phillips’ defense. LA is allowing just 18.0 points per game and has forced 19 turnovers. Keep an eye on Viking WR Adam Thielen. The D-2 receiver has five games with at least 90 yards receiving, and at least five receptions in all nine games.
Pick: Rams 24, Vikings 20
Los Angeles +2½, under 45½
4-5 Washington Redskins at 7-2 New Orleans Saints
Saints favored by 7½; over/under 51½ points; money line -380, +310
The Saints are playing well in all three phases of the game. The offense is far more productive with more emphasis on the running game, keeping opposing defenses off balance. Net result is a 7-game winning streak, tied with Philadelphia for the longest in the NFL this season. Make that eight straight over the injury depleted Skins.
Pick: Saints 31, Redskins 21
New Orleans -7½, over 51½
4-5 Arizona Cardinals at 3-6 Houston Texans
Texans favored by 1½; over/under 37½ points; money line -125, +105
You want to know why ratings are down? Games where the starting quarterbacks are Tom Savage and Drew Stanton may have something to do with that.
Pick: Cardinals 19, Texans 16
Arizona +1½, under 37½
Early Games on CBS
6-3 Kansas City Chiefs at 1-8 New York Giants
Chiefs favored by 10; over/under 46 points; money line -500, +400
Remember when preseason prognosticators were predicting that the Giants would win the division and contend for the Super Bowl? Now Big Blue is a double-digit underdog at home and instead in contention for the number one pick in the 2018 draft.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Giants 10
Kansas City -10, under 46
4-5 Baltimore Ravens at 5-4 Green Bay Packers
Ravens favored by 2; over/under 38 points; money line -130, +110
Brett Hundley looked awful in his first two games, but was improved last week. Packer RB Jamaal will need a productive day to counter Baltimore’s blitz-heavy defense on a cold (33) and windy (12-25) day.
Pick: Packers 20, Ravens 17
Green Bay +2, under 38
6-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 0-9 Cleveland Browns
Jaguars favored by 7½; over/under 37 points; money line -380, +310
Jacksonville may be without their top four receivers, so it will be imperative that the Jags get their running game in gear. Jacksonville’s offensive line has performed well this year, with the Jaguars averaging an NFL best 163 yards rushing per game. Cleveland’s run defense has been their lone bright spot. The Browns are allowing an NFL-low 3.1 yards per carry and just 86 yards rushing per game.
Pick: Browns 20, Jaguars 16
Cleveland +7½, under 37
Late Afternoon Games
5-4 Buffalo Bills at 3-6 Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 ET on Fox
Chargers favored by 5½; over/under 41½ points; money line -250, +210
Nathan Peterman gets the start at quarterback over benched Tyrod Taylor. Expecting a rookie QB to win on the road in his first NFL start is a tall order, even though the Chargers have virtually no home field advantage.
Pick: Chargers 27, Bills 16
Los Angeles -5½, over 41½
3-6 Cincinnati Bengals at 3-6 Denver Broncos, 4:25 ET on CBS
Broncos favored by 2½; over/under 38½ points; money line -145, +125
Denver has lost five straight and Bronco fans are pointing their fingers at everybody, including John Elway. If the Bengal secondary could not cover Tennessee receivers last week, what will they do at Mile High against Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders?
Pick: Broncos 23, Bengals 20
Denver -2½, over 38½
7-2 New England Patriots vs 4-5 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS, at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City
Patriots favored by 7; over/under 54½ points; money line -320, +270
Jack Tatum. Daryl Stingley. Russ Francis. George Atkinson. Phil Villapiano. Ray Hamilton. Ben Dreith. Stop whining about the Tuck Rule, Raider fans. You scored six points on your final ten possessions of that game, and failed to stop the Patriots on three of their last four possessions.Pats improve to 19-15-1 all time in this series.
Pick: Patriots 31, Raiders 17
New England -7, under 54½
Prime Time Games
8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at 5-4 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday night at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Eagles favored by 5½; over/under 48 points; money line -240, +200
Carson Wentz has thrown 17 touchdown passes against three interceptions in the last five games. Dallas has not been able to contain good quarterbacks and high scoring offenses this year. The Cowboys gave up 35 points in home losses to the Packers and Rams, and 27 points at Atlanta last week.
Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 20
Philadelphia -5½, over 48
5-4 Atlanta Falcons at 6-3 Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks favored by 3; over/under 45 points; money line -150, +130
Monday night at 8:30 pm ET on espn
The Seahawks are in a difficult situation, playing without CB Richard Sherman and SS Kam Chancellor. Seattle does benefit with the return of FS Earl Thomas, and Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) is out. This could easily go either way; it’s tough to pick against Seattle at home. Former Patriot Justin Coleman gets the start at corner in place of Sherman.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 20
Seattle -3, under 45
7-3 Carolina Panthers
3-7 Indianapolis Colts
4-6 New York Jets
1-9 San Francisco 49ers
For a sneak peak at next week’s games, check out NFL Week 12 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead Lines: Pats favored by 14.5 vs Miami.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has published their latest NFL Advanced Betting Lines. These early odds are posted prior to the following week’s games, including this past Thursday’s game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Also known as Look-Ahead lines, they give the adventurous sports fan an opportunity to wager on games up to twelve days away. Early lines offer a short opportunity to get a jump on odds that could be less favorable after Sunday’s games.
The good news is that this the bye weeks are over, and that Thanksgiving Day gives us three games to feast on.
On paper the NFL Week 12 schedule does not offer many close games. Eleven games have a spread of 6½ or more and two games list odds of three points or less. The New England Patriots are the heaviest favorites, at -14½ at home versus Miami. Two other home teams are also double-digit favorites. Chicago is at Philadelphia (-11½) and Green Bay plays at Pittsburgh (-12½) next Sunday night.
Home favorites also have the narrowest odds. The Vikings are at Detroit (-1½) in an important NFC North game, and the Rams (-1½) host New Orleans in one of the late afternoon matchups. The only road favorites are Carolina (at the Jets), Tennessee at Indy, Seattle at San Francisco, and Jacksonville at Arizona.
NFL Week 12 Early Odds
Thanksgiving Day, Thursday Nov 24
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-1½) 12:30 pm ET on Fox
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-4), 4:30 pm ET on CBS
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-8½), 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Sunday Nov 26 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-14½)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-7½)
Sunday Nov 26 at 1:00 pm ET on Fox
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-11½)
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Carolina Panthers (-4) at New York Jets
Tennessee Titans (-6½) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday Nov 26 late afternoon games
Seattle Seahawks (-8½) at San Francisco 49ers, 4:00 pm ET on Fox
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-1½), 4:30 pm on CBS
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3½) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 pm ET on CBS
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-6½), 4:30 pm ET on CBS
Prime Time Games, 8:30 pm ET
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12½), Sunday November 26 on NBC
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7½), Monday November 27 on espn
At first glance I like the Vikings (+1½), Rams (-1½), Washington (-8½), Bucs +9 and Packers +12½.