Tag Archives: Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 10 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
November 12, 2017 at 7:00 am ET

NFL Week 10 has plenty of interesting story lines. On Sunday night the Patriots travel to their house of horrors, Denver’s Mile High Stadium. The Pats are 2-6 since 2005 in Colorado, and 4-18 in the Rockies since 1969. Despite that alarming trend the Patriots are 7½ point favorites as of Saturday night.

Since their week five bye the Broncos have been in a free fall with no end in sight. First there was a 13-point loss to the Giants, giving Big Blue their only win of 2017. That was followed by a shutout loss to the Chargers, then a five-turnover debacle against KC. Last week the one strong point for Denver, their defense, allowed 51 points. It was the most points allowed by the Broncos since 2010. On top of that the 28 point differential was the worst for Denver since the 2011 season of Tim Tebow.

There are plenty of other games worth watching as well. In the early time slot Minnesota is at Washington, and the Saints travel to Buffalo on a six-game winning streak. Then in the late afternoon time slot Dallas travels to Atlanta without Ezekiel Elliott. Roger Goodell wanted the NFL to have 12-month headlines, but these questionable suspensions and subsequent court cases are crushing the popularity of the sport. The week wraps up with Miami at Carolina on Monday night.

Most of the country will get Pittsburgh at Indy early on CBS. Fox has the early time slot split between the Saints-Bills in the east, and Minnesota-Washington in the west. The Pats-Broncos game is available most everywhere, though Hartford is stubbornly (and stupidly) opting to air the Giants game instead. smh…. For a full list of announcers and to see what games are being broadcast in your are, please check JP Kirby’s 506 Sports.

 

Early Games on Fox

6-2 Minnesota Vikings at 4-4 Washington Redskins
Vikings favored by 1½; over/under 41 points; money line -125, +105

Washington has had injuries throughout their entire offensive line this season. They get three starters (LG Shawn Lauvo, C Spencer Long, RG Brandon Scherff) back this week. That should significantly help matters, but LT is still a sore spot. Minnesota Pro Bowl DE Everson Griffen already has ten sacks, and will make LT TJ Clemmings look incompetent.

Pick: Vikings 23, Redskins 17
Minnesota -1½, under 41

 

4-4 Green Bay Packers at 3-5 Chicago Bears
Bears favored by 5½; over/under 37½ points; money line -250, +210

It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Pack finishes the season in last place in the NFC North. Perhaps then they can use their early draft picks to shore up that Swiss cheese offensive line. Here’s a question: will Brett Hundley be able to make the roster on a CFL or Arena league team in 2018?

Pick: Bears 20, Packers 17
Packers +5½, under 37½

 

3-5 Cincinnati Bengals at 5-3 Tennessee Titans
Titans favored by 4½; over/under 40½ points; money line -220, +180

Cincinnati has given up 25 ppg over the last three weeks, losing two of three since their bye. Two of those games were against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, neither of which are offensive juggernauts. More alarming was the Bengals regression on offense last week, with a mere eight first downs and seven points scored.

Pick: Titans 20, Bengals 17
Cincinnati +4½, under 40½

 

6-2 New Orleans Saints at 5-3 Buffalo Bills
Saints favored by 3; over/under 47½ points; money line -145, +125

The Saints are overdue for a letdown loss, but will it come now? Here is dome team playing outside up north in the last half of the season against a team coming off an embarrassing loss. I just don’t think that the Bills can keep up with the New Orleans offense though. The Saints have a balanced attack and are playing complimentary football. That is something they have lacked since winning the Super Bowl eight years ago. Logically the Saints win, but I’m taking the Bills to bounce back in a slight upset. Buffalo wins their fifth straight home game.

Pick: Bills 24, Saints 20
Buffalo +3, under 47½

 

Early Games on CBS

6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-6 Indianapolis Colts
Steelers favored by 10; over/under 45 points; money line -500, +400

Pittsburgh has a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents on the road. That doesn’t mean the Colts will pull off the upset though; they are still awful. Indy has an atrocious minus-98 point differential already. To place that in perspective that is worse than even the one-win Giants, or the winless Browns and Niners.

Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 20
Indianapolis +10, over 45

 

3-5 Los Angeles Chargers at 5-3 Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars favored by 4½; over/under 41 points; money line -210, +180

RB Leonard Fournette will have fresh legs after three weeks off. He faces a Charger run defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry (28th) and 135 yards per game (31st). The Jacksonville defense is for real, allowing an NFL-best 14.6 points per game.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Chargers 13
Jacksonville -4½, under 41

 

4-5 New York Jets at 2-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jets favored by 2½; over/under 43½ points; money line -140, +120

Tampa Bay’s defense has been a sore spot all season. The Buccaneer defense generates no pass rush, with a league-worst eight sacks on the season. That has resulted in 7.9 yards per pass attempt (28th) and 24.8 points per game (26th). Give journeyman QB Josh McCown enough time and he will avoid critical mistakes and do just enough to win.

Pick: Jets 24, Bucs 20
Gang Green -2½, over 43½

 

0-8 Cleveland Browns at 4-4 Detroit Lions
Lions favored by 11; over/under 43½ points; money line -625, +450

The Cleveland defense has actually played well this year. The Browns are allowing only 2.9 yards per rush (1st) and 4.9 yards per play (8th). The offense though ranks at or near the bottom in nearly every statistical category. Detroit may be inconsistent, but they have far more talent and should win easily.

Pick: Lions 31, Browns 13
Detroit -11, over 43½

 

Late Afternoon Games

3-5 Houston Texans at 6-2 Los Angeles Rams
Rams favored by 11½; over/under 45½ points; money line -675, +475

This would have been a really great game to watch. Unfortunately it’s Tom Savage at QB rather than DeShaun Watson, and JJ Watt and Whitney Houston are sidelined as well. The Rams put up 51 points last week and now have to be considered a genuine contender to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. QB Jared Goff’s numbers through eight games: 2,030 yards passing with 13 TD against only 4 INT. Goff also leads the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 13.8 yards per completion.

Pick: Rams 27, Texans 13
Los Angeles -11½, under 45½

 

5-3 Dallas Cowboys at 4-4 Atlanta Falcons
Falcons favored by 3; over/under 48½ points; money line -150, +130

The Dallas offense has been clicking, and the Atlanta defense has been missing. The Cowboys will be without RB Ezekiel Elliott however. Perhaps more importantly all-pro LT Tyron Smith will also be inactive due to a groin injury. Atlanta needs to get their offense back in gear to keep their playoff hopes reasonably alive.

Pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 27
Dallas +3, over 48½

 

1-7 New York Giants at 0-9 San Francisco 49ers
Giants favored by 2½; over/under 42 points; money line -145, +125

Week after week I keep picking Santa Clara to win a game. Week after week the Miners find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Now they host Team Turmoil, traveling three time zones. The G-men have given up on their season and their coach is Dead Man Walking. The legend of Jimmy Garoppolo in the City by the Bay commences. Only masochists would tune in to watch a game between two teams with a combined 1-16 record.

Pick: Niners 3, Giants 2
Niners +2½, under 42

 

Prime Time Games

6-2 New England Patriots at 3-5 Denver Broncos
Patriot favored by 7½; over/under 44½ points; money line -320, +260

New England fans are rightfully going to temper their expectations based on the Patriots history in Denver. The Broncos have not looked good since their week five bye. Denver has lost four straight, turning the ball over 13 times in that span. To win they will need their defense to come through against a Patriot offense that is without WR Chris Hogan (shoulder). Danny Amendola has been playing through a knee injury, so the Pats could rely more on James White in the passing game. The Broncos can’t focus on stopping both Rob Gronkowski and the Patriot running backs at the same time. Brock Osweiler and the Denver offense will make a critical gaffe or two against Matt Patricia’s defense.

Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 17
New England -7½, over 44½

 

4-4 Miami Dolphins at 6-3 Carolina Panthers
Panthers favored by 9; over/under 38½ points; money line -450, +350

Continuity on offensive lines is a key to productivity. Miami will make two changes to their OL this week, adding LG Ted Larsen but losing RT Ja’Wuan James. That could be problematic against a Carolina defense that is allowing only 17.7 ppg.

Pick: Panthers 24, Dolphins 17
Miami +9, over 38½

 

Bye Week:
4-5 Baltimore Ravens
6-3 Kansas City Chiefs
4-5 Oakland Raiders
8-1 Philadelphia Eagles

 

For a sneak peak at next week’s games, check out NFL Week 11 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead Lines: Patriots favored by 6 vs Raiders in Mexico City.

 

Martellus Bennett Released by GB, the Patriots Should Be Very Interested

Steve Balestrieri
November 9, 2017 at 8:21 am ET

In a somewhat stunning turn of events, the Green Bay Packers suddenly released tight end Martellus Bennett on Wednesday. The reason given was “failure to disclose physical condition” designation. So the next question is, should the Patriots be interested in bringing Bennett back for a stretch run? The answer is an easy yes.

But there is a glitch in that, it isn’t going to be an easy slam-dunk signing. Bennett is now subject to waivers. All 31 other teams have until 4 p.m. ET Thursday to submit a claim on him. If he does not get claimed, he becomes a free agent and can sign with any team at any time after that.

The rule from the NFL states that any vested veteran (which Bennett is) doesn’t have to go thru the waiver process until after the NFL trading deadline. And now many other teams will have a crack at claiming the veteran tight end for a late-season addition. Several playoff eligible teams should take a long look at adding Bennett who is a reliable receiver as well as an outstanding blocker.

Martellus Bennett could be a member of the Patriots again…if the cards fall right. (SBalestrieri photo)

Bennett surprised the Packers and many around the league when he announced during the bye week that this season may be his last. When asked by the media what made him come to that decision, he simply said, “Life.”

So, why should the Patriots be in the mix to bring Bennett back? The simple answer…Life.

Life in the NFL is a day-to-day existence and injuries occur all too frequently. The Patriots wide receiver core is banged up. Julian Edelman is already out for the year, Chris Hogan is expected to miss a few weeks with a shoulder injury and Danny Amendola has been playing through a few ailments of his own. Malcolm Mitchell began the season on IR with a knee issue and it isn’t a sure bet that he’ll return for the remainder of the season. He recently began running again which means his return is weeks away at the earliest.

Bennett and Rob Gronkowski would automatically give the team a dynamic 1-2 punch in two tight end sets which would ease the burden of the wide receivers while adding another excellent blocker in the running game. He was a productive member of the Patriots last year and was a huge asset with the absence of Gronkowski after he was placed on IR with a back issue.

Bennett would be an immediate step up from Dwayne Allen. The former Colts tight end was signed as a free agent this spring to replace Bennett after he signed with the Packers. Allen as a blocker has been okay but has failed to catch on as a receiver. He has zero catches at the halfway point of the season and what’s worse, he hasn’t even been targeted in a month. Bennett knows the system and the offense and he and Brady had a great rapport last season. He was a trusted member of the offense and was a well-respected member of the team in the locker room, playing thru a variety of injuries all season.

Bennett would be immediate insurance for Gronkowski who has been outstanding this season, despite every team’s insistence on trying to beat him up and hold him on every down it seems. Gronk’s injury history is a matter of record and uniting him and Bennett together on the offense would be a plus.

The Patriots had a similar situation arise with LeGarrette Blount during the 2014 Super Bowl season when he was released by the Pittsburgh Steeler in mid-season and returned to help the Patriots win Super Bowl XLIX.

Bennett caught 55 passes for 701 yards and a career-high seven touchdowns in 16 games. It was he who was targeted by Brady in overtime against the Falcons in the Super Bowl in overtime that set the ball up at the two. That set the stage for James White’s heroics. Bennett got open down the seam and he was interfered with at the two-yard line as the pass fell incomplete in the end zone. Had he not been interfered with on that play, he would have been the Super Bowl hero. Bennett signed with the Packers as an unrestricted free agent last offseason and started seven games. He had 24 catches for 233 yards.

So while it would be a no-brainer for the Patriots to explore this, the cards would all have to fall right for Bennett to have a reunion in Foxboro. Stay tuned…

Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]

Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.

NFL Week 7 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
October 22, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

NFL Week 7 is highlighted by the most hyped and anticipated game of the 2017 season. The Atlanta Falcons travel to Foxborough for only the second time this millennium, in a rematch of the greatest Super Bowl in NFL history. The Patriots lead the all-time series 8-6 and are 5-0 in the Belichick-Brady era. New England was listed as a 3½ point favorite for most of the week, with that number dropping to three late Friday. As of Saturday night 63% of the money bet on the spread is taking the Falcons to cover, 74% of the money line is on Atlanta, and 77% is on the point total going over 56½ points.

Ironically the Pats-Falcons game will end up being no more than the second most exciting game of the week. In a departure from the usual Thursday night fare, NFL fans were treated to a wild and stunning ending to the week’s first game. If seven lead changes weren’t enough, consider the final half minute of the Raiders closing drive to beat Kansas City.

  • Completion on 4th and 11 for a first down.
  • Two incomplete passes.
  • Touchdown pass to tie the game.
  • Scoring play reviewed; call reversed, out of bounds inside the one yard line.
  • Ten second runoff; game clock down to 0:03 seconds.
  • Pass completed for touchdown.
  • Penalty, offensive pass interference; TD nullified, ten yard penalty.
  • Pass incomplete, clock at 0:00.
  • Penalty on defense; Raiders get an untimed down.
  • Pass again incomplete.
  • Another penalty on KC, another untimed play for Oakland.
  • Pass complete for touchdown to tie the game.
  • Extra point good to win the game.

As a whole the public tends to place more money on the favorite than on the underdog. Those that bet the chalk in week six lost their shirt. Favorites covered the spread in a mere three games last week, and underdogs won nine of those 14 games straight up. Both home teams favored by 13½ lost (Atlanta to Miami and Denver to the Giants). In addition Minnesota knocked out Green Bay, Pittsburgh handed Kansas City their first loss, and the Chargers (at Oakland) and Bears (at Baltimore) pulled off road upsets. The 2017 has provided plenty of inconsistency, with teams looking strong one week and bad the next.

Week 7 is full of games that are close matchups, at least on paper. While week six had what appeared to be plenty of blowouts (and we saw how that turned out), there are zero games with a spread of more than six points this week. Road teams are favored nearly as often as home team, accounting for many of those low odds. New Orleans at Green Bay and Tampa Bay at Buffalo appear to be the most watchable of the eight games in the early time slot. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh was flexed to a later kickoff to help improve the quality of the late afternoon games. Another good option as a prelude to the Pats-Falcons game is Denver at the Chargers. Atlanta at New England is of course the must-watch game on Sunday night. Monday night features Carson Wentz and Philadelphia hosting Washington. The Eagles went on the road to defeat Carolina last week, and now own the NFL’s best record at 5-1.

 

Early Games on CBS

3-3 Tennessee Titans at 0-6 Cleveland Browns
Titans favored by 6; over/under 45½; money line -250, +210

The Titans have displayed an annoying penchant for playing down to the level of their opponents. However, this is the Browns we are talking about. Even if Tennessee starts slow – as they often do – the Titans should still be able to win this game with less than 100% productivity.

Pick: Titans 24, Browns 20; Cleveland +6

 

3-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 2-4 Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars favored by 3; over/under 43½; money line -165, +145

The Colts are unable to finish games, a sign of substandard coaching. Jacksonville failed to live up to lofty expectations in 2016, but this season their defense (18.3 ppg, 312 ypg) is carrying the Jags to playoff contention.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Colts 17; Jacksonville -3.

 

3-3 Baltimore Ravens at 4-2 Minnesota Vikings
Vikings favored by 5½; over/under 38½; money line -250, +210

Don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s record. Their wins were against the Raiders without Derek Carr, the Browns, and a Bengal team still in preseason form in week one. The Ravens home loss last week to the lowly Bears was not an anomaly.

Pick: Vikings 24, Ravens 13; Minnesota -5½

 

4-2 Carolina Panthers at 2-4 Chicago Bears
Panthers favored by 3; over/under 41; money line -170, +150

So when the dust all settled this game was cross flexed from Fox to CBS and the Miami-Jets game went from CBS to Fox. Why bother? Is anybody outside of those four fan bases going to watch either game? Mitch Trubisky looks like he will become a good NFL quarterback. But for this game the Bears are facing a well rested Panther team wanting to rid themselves of the taste of last week’s defeat. Beating the Ravens doesn’t really count for much; the Bears still have a long ways to go before becoming a contender.

Pick: Panthers 24, Bears 17; Panthers -3

 

Early Games on Fox

3-3 New York Jets at 3-2 Miami Dolphins
Dolphins favored by 3; over/under 38; money line -175, +155

Adam Gase finally figured out that Jay Cutler (an NFL-worst 5.2 yards per pass attempt) was not going to lead the Dolphins to many victories. Miami made no pretense what their plan was, lining up in two or three tight end formations, and was able run the ball effectively in last week’s win at Atlanta. Expect more of the same in this game. Woody Hayes would love this game.

Pick: Dolphins 17, Jets 16; Jets +3, under 38

 

2-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 3-2 Buffalo Bills
Bills favored by 3; over/under 45; money line -150, +130

Jameis Winston will get the start for the Bucs, despite his bum shoulder. Tampa Bay’s defense has underachieved this season, but they finally get the heart of their D – linebackers LaVonte David and Kwon Alexander – healthy and on the field together. Their productivity is key, as Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy has bounced back from a couple of sub-par games with 98 yards from scrimmage in the win at Atlanta, and 99 yards at Cincinnati.

Pick: Bucs 20, Bills 16; Tampa Bay +3; under 45

 

3-2 New Orleans Saints at 4-2 Green Bay Packers
Saints favored by 4; over/under 47½; money line -210 +180

The Saints look for their fourth straight win while Green Bay QB Brent Hundley gets his first NFL start. Unfortunately for him the New Orleans defense has risen from the dead, forcing nine takeaways this season. On the other side of the ball the Saints have discovered a running game – ironically, with incumbent Mark Ingram rather than Adrian Peterson.

Pick: Saints 31-17; New Orleans -4

 

3-3 Arizona Cardinals ‘at’ 4-2 Los Angeles Rams, in London
Rams favored by 3; over/under 45½; money line -160, +140

Adrian Peterson had a big game in his debut last week, but don’t expect a repeat performance. The Arizona offensive line is still awful, and the Ram defense is much better than Tampa Bay’s injury riddled D. Jared Goff and the LA offense (a league-best 29.8 points per game) should give European NFL fans plenty of scoring to cheer for. Arizona’s defense (26.3 ppg) is nowhere near as formidable as they had been the previous four years.

Pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 24; Los Angeles -3

 

Late Afternoon Games

2-3 Dallas at 0-6 San Francisco 49ers, 4:00 ET on Fox
Cowboys favored by 6; over/under 48½; money line -265, +225

The Cowboys have not lived up to pre-season expectations, despite being able to play Ezekiel Elliott. After losing five straight games by a field goal or less, the Niners finally get their first W.

Pick: 49ers 24-21; San Fran +6

 

4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 2-3 Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 ET on CBS
Steelers favored by 5½; over/under 40½; money line -250, +210

It is amazing to consider the possibility that Cincinnati, who looked awful in their first two games, could be in first place in the AFC North with a victory. Steeler WR Martavis Bryant, who asked to be traded due to his role in the offense, could have a big game here. In five games against the Bengals Bryant has three touchdowns, catching 21 out of 32 passes thrown his way for 257 yards.

Pick: Steelers 24-20; Cincinnati +5½

 

3-2 Seattle Seahawks at 1-5 New York Giants, 4:30 ET on CBS
Seahawks favored by 4; over/under 39½; money line -210, +180

Seattle’s offensive line has caused problems for their offense. Their defense is still a force, which is bad news for an injury ravaged Giants squad.

Pick: Seahawks 24-13; Seattle -4

 

3-2 Denver Broncos at 2-4 Los Angeles Chargers, 4:30 ET on CBS
Even odds (pick’em); over/under 40½; money line -110, -110

The threat of Demaryius Thomas (10 catches, 133 yards last week) will enable CJ Anderson to run the ball. The Chargers will do what they do best: lose a close game.

Pick: Broncos 24-20; Denver (pk)

 

Prime Time Games

3-2 Atlanta Falcons at 4-2 New England Patriots, Sunday 8:30 ET on NBC
Patriots favored by 3; over/under 56½; money line -160, +140

Atlanta’s offense presents difficult matchups for the Patriot defense. The Falcons get a very tiny bit of revenge, but the Super Bowl LI legacy will live long after this game is forgotten.

Pick: Falcons 31, Patriots 27; Atlanta +3

 

3-2 Washington Redskins at 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles, Monday 8:30 pm ET on espn
Eagles favored by 4½; over/under 49; money line -225, +185

Philly is clicking on all cylinders right now. Washington on the other hand is banged up, with injuries to both corners.

Pick: Eagles 30-20; Philadelphia -4½

 

Best Bets:
Jaguars -3
Saints -4
49ers +6
Seahawks -4
Bucs-Bills under 45
Eagles -4½
Jets-Dolphins under 38

 

Five Monday NFL Thoughts After Week 6

Ian Logue
October 16, 2017 at 8:40 am ET

Sunday was an interesting afternoon with a variety of stories from around the league that stood out.  We’ll attempt to cover a few of them here each week, including several from yesterday.

1)  Undefeated no more – The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of 2017 after the Pittsburgh Steelers came into Arrowhead Stadium and dropped them to 5-1 on the season after a 19-13 loss.  They held the Chiefs to just three points through three quarters and the 12-3 lead Pittsburgh managed to put together over that span ended up being enough to hold them off.  Kansas City closed to within 12-10 with just over six minutes to go in the game, but Ben Roethlisberger came right back and hit Antonio Brown for a 51-yard touchdown on the ensuing drive to put the game away.

Roethlisberger was coming off of a loss to the Jaguars the previous week where he questioned whether or not he still “had it”, but that seemingly was just him whining after he came out earlier in the week calling himself “one of the best in the world”.

“You wake up Monday morning, and you realize, ‘Man, I’m still one of the best in the world [to] do what I do,’ ” Roethlisberger said via the Post-Gazette. “I’m gonna have that confidence. I’m gonna have that when I go out there Wednesday to practice and Sunday when we go to Kansas City.”

Fortunately for Roethlisberger, his team did enough to improve to 4-2 on the season and lift his ego for at least another week, while also helping New England’s chances at getting the top seed now that the Chiefs finally have one in the loss column.


Rodgers won’t get an opportunity to potentially battle with Brady in February.

2) Tough break for Rodgers – Aaron Rodgers season may have come to an abrupt end after the veteran took a big shot out in Minnesota that saw him get carted off the field during a 23-10 loss out in Minneapolis.

Unlike New England, where there the news might have taken a few days to come out, the Packers announced the injury over their Twitter channel saying that “he could miss the rest of the season.”  It’s disappointing because his loss likely will put the Packers’ postseason chances in jeopardy, eliminating a potential match-up between Brady and Rodgers in February.

Brady found out about the injury during his press conference.

“I didn’t know that. That sucks,” said Brady.

Rodgers’ injury turns the reins over to back-up Brett Hundley, who head coach Mike McCarthy said is “my quarterback”, with Joe Callahan as his back-up as the team now tries to move forward with Rodgers sidelined.

3) Colin Kaepernick trying to land a death blow to the CBA – For some odd reason, Kaepernick seems to believe that his ongoing unemployment is related to NFL owners conspiring against him, which will now reportedly see the quarterback file a collusion grievance, which holds some significance due to its potential effect on the CBA if he’s successful.

According to ProFootballTalk.com, Kaepernick is hoping to trigger the termination of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement if he’s able to prove collusion by the owners.

It seems to be a long shot, because one of the things that’s seemingly gotten lost surrounding the beleaguered quarterback is the fact that he’s not unemployed because of the fact he started the kneeling movement during the national anthem.  People seem to forget he was wearing police portrayed as pigs on his socks during training camp, as well as featuring a police officer badge as a “runaway slave patrol badge.”


Kaepernick’s bad decisions, not his anthem protests, are likely the reason he’s still unemployed.

Those statements were pretty telling and while his actions sparked the current league movement, what Kaepernick has already done has been ugly enough where given that teams are escorted by police and security on a weekly basis, bringing a player who openly wears socks portraying them with a word that most officers dislike being called is something that is probably the bigger reason keeping owners from seeking his services.  Not to mention the fact that adding that drama and attention to their locker room is another thing they likely don’t want either.

Given that some of Kaepernick’s concerns involve racially charged accusations that most people dislike making blanket statements about, it’s ironic that Kaepernick made such strong blanket statements about police.  While it’s hard to deny that there may certainly be legitimate things that need to be discussed with this issue, he didn’t handle it as well as he could have and he really went too far, which has also hurt his cause.

The other issue is the fact that Kaepernick wasn’t playing at a high level during his final days in San Francisco and the negatives he brings as a distraction likely outweighs a substantial enough reason for a team to take the chance of bringing him in.  Had he knelt and then made his thoughts known to media outlets to bring his grievances to light in a more controlled manner, it might have played out differently.  But the pig socks and the strong Twitter statements haven’t helped his cause, and when you take into account the national backlash the league is already feeling over the anthem protest to begin with, it would be tough for one member club to want to take the additional baggage surrounding Kaepernick on.

Let’s be honest, when you look at how things have been handled by concerned players even here in New England, it’s completely different from Kaepernick’s actions.  Even Indianapolis has handled things better, with former Patriots Darius Butler and Kamar Aiken doing positive things to try and spark productive discussions with local police.  It’s a stark contrast to what the now unemployed player did, and it’s amazing that people seem to have forgotten that.

At the end of the day, Kaepernick had the right intention with his plight but it’s ultimately been his poor execution and decision-making that has him in this position.  He may try and prove collusion, but these are likely the real reasons his NFL career may be over.

He needs to look in the mirror instead of pointing any fingers when it comes to why NFL owners don’t want anything to do with him.  Hopefully the progress he ultimately makes someday years from now in sparking a positive change, which if Kaepernick is being truthful in some of the other things he’s said, will be more rewarding than the NFL career he cost himself by going too far with his actions.

He’s his own worst enemy.  The sooner he admits that and shifts his focus to truly wanting to finish what he started, the sooner maybe he’ll finally bring about the change he sought to begin with.


Matt Ryan fell apart Sunday against Miami.

4) Dolphins come away with big second-half over Atlanta – With the Falcons set to visit Gillette Stadium next Saturday night, they’ll likely be fired up after dropping a disappointing game at home against the visiting Miami Dolphins.

Atlanta put together a 17-0 first half lead, but were shut out by Miami in the second half as the Dolphins put up 20 unanswered points and forced an interception by Matt Ryan with 0:47 to go with the Falcons sitting at the Dolphins’ 26-yard line.  The turnover sealed the win for Miami, who improved to 3-2 on the season and kept them even with the 3-2 Bills, who are on a bye this week.

It’s the second loss to an AFC East team in successive weeks for Atlanta and it’s also the second-consecutive loss at home for the Falcons, who will face another AFC East foe this week on the road when they come to Foxboro next Sunday in a rematch of February’s Super Bowl.

Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen said that two home losses is a disgrace and at 3-2, they need to “reset” with a critical game on tap next weekend.

“We’ve got to reset,” Allen said via ESPN. “It ain’t no other way. What you going to do, just lay down? There’s s— else you can do. You’ve got be a man. You’ve got to know what we work for when we wake up every morning. What we grind for. What this team stands for. We’ve got to reset.”


Rivers and the Chargers did just enough to beat the Raiders Sunday.

5) Chargers Upset Oakland – Despite a hapless Los Angeles team that seemed like their season was headed into the tank, the Chargers managed to get their second win of the year after beating the Raiders 17-16 with a last-second field goal.

The Raiders saw quarterback Derek Carr return from his back injury but he’s clearly still hampered, with Carr struggling his way through a 21-of-30 performance that included two interceptions.

For the Chargers, it’s their second straight victory as they appear to be gaining some momentum and confidence despite playing in a division where they’re going to have their work cut out for them in catching the 5-1 Chiefs and 3-2 Broncos.

“I thought the guys stepped up and made plays when we had to,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said via ESPN.  “That’s what we’ve been talking about. I’m so proud that they starting to see the fruit of their labor because these men work hard every single week.”

The Chargers will visit New England in two weeks on 10/29 and one stat to watch will be the fact that Los Angeles’ defense has struggled in the first quarter, having been outscored 50-7 in the opening quarter through six games.   The Patriots have had some success scoring points in the first quarter, which has been the Patriots’ second highest scoring quarter with 40.  The Patriots’ highest scoring quarter has been the second quarter, which has seen them put up 71 points through six games.

NFL Week 6 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
October 15, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

NFL Week 6 kicked off with an oddity. Lo and behold, we had a quality Thursday night game between a pair of teams with winning (both 4-1) records. Philadelphia went on the road and defeated Carolina in Charlotte 28-23. Carson Wentz overcame a slow start and threw three touchdowns – and more importantly, no interceptions. The Eagle defensive front seven won the line of scrimmage against the Carolina offensive line. Cam Newton had thrown for 671 yards and six touchdowns over his last two games, but the Philly defense harassed him all night. With a 5-1 record and possessing an impressive road victory, the Eagles are a legitimate candidate to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 52. Meanwhile, one high strung idiot has given Panther fans an embarrassing reputation.

 

★★★★★ — Game of the Week

3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Broadcast in all markets except Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Chiefs favored by 4; over/under 47; Money Line KC -205, Pitt +175

Right now Alex Smith is the NFL MVP for 2017. The previously maligned quarterback is leading the league in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and passer rating. The additions of Tyreek Hill in 2016 and rookie Kareem Hunt this year certainly help as well. The Pittsburgh defensive front seven is nothing special and won’t be able to handle that duo. Whispers about the demise of 35 year old Ben Roethlisberger (6 TD, 7 INT) will gain momentum this week in Iron City.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 20
Chiefs -4

 

★★★★ — Good Games

3-2 New England Patriots at 3-2 New York Jets
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Broadcast in all markets except those airing the Browns-Texans and Dolphins-Falcons games. Also not broadcast in DC, Baltimore, Minneapolis and New Orleans due to NFL blackout rules.
Patriots favored by 9½; over/under 47½; Money Line NWE -475, NYJ +375

The Jets have thrived when they don’t have to rely on Josh McCown and the league’s worst group of receivers. On the other hand the Patriot pass defense has been suspect, to put it mildly. On top of that the Pats will be without starting corners Stephon Gilmore (concussion) and Eric Rowe (groin). It will be interesting to see what Matt Patricia game plans Sunday. Nickel situations would presumably call for safety Duron Harmon. After Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Jones the only other corner is Johnson Bademosi, who has yet to play a defensive snap this season.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 24
Jets +9½

 

4-1 Green Bay Packers at 3-2 Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman
Broadcast in most of the US; see the five other games on Fox for exceptions.
Packers favored by 3; over/under 45; Money Line GB -175, Min +155

This would be a great game if the two teams were at full strength, but that is not the case. QB Case Keenum has filled in admirably for Sam Bradford, but the Vikes could really use Dalvin Cook against this Green Bay defense. WR Adam Thielen has played well, but with Stefon Diggs out the Packer defense can double team him all day.

Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 21
Packers -3 (two units)

 

3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth
Broadcast in Boston, southern California, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and West Palm Beach.
Jaguars favored by 2½; over/under 42½; Money Line Jax -145, Rams +125

Here we are in mid-October, and both the Rams and Jags have winning records. Jacksonville is a complete enigma. They rank first in both sacks and interceptions, second in passes defensed, third in passing yards allowed, and sixth in quarterback hits. The Jaguars looked unbeatable in wins over the Texans, Ravens and Steelers. Problem is that each victory was followed by a poor game (Titans, Jets). Following that pattern the Jags are due for another dud. Rams QB Jared Goff has made remarkable progress in his second season, and doesn’t make the mistakes that Blake Bortles does. Jacksonville is playing at home and with a better defense though, and finally wins consecutive games.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Rams 17
Jaguars -2½</span

 

★★★ — Decent Games

3-2 Detroit Lions at 2-2 New Orleans Saints
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Dan Hellie, Chris Spielman
Broadcast in Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi.
Saints favored by 5; over/under 50; Money Line NOR -215, Det +185

QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with a bum ankle, which is good news for Saints DE Cameron Jordan. Detroit will attempt to get RB Ameer Abdullah rolling against a New Orleans defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Lions will also miss be without DT Haloti Ngata for the rest of the season, which certainly does not help when facing Drew Brees.

Prediction: Saints 27, Lions 24
Lions +5

 

1-4 Los Angeles Chargers at 2-3 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Broadcast in Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Raiders favored by 3; over/under 50½; Money Line Oak -175, LAC +155

Derek Carr may be less than 100%, but that’s still great news for the Raiders. EJ Manuel’s passes were late and slow, leaving Oakland receivers in peril last week. The LAC run defense is non existent, allowing 5.0 yards per carry and a league worst 161 yards per game. In 2016 the Chargers lost too many winnable games, so they changed head coaches. Nothing has changed so far this year. The Bolts were fortunate to finally win a game they tried to give away last week, escaping with a narrow victory against the depleted Giants. Sunday they return to their standard format of losing a close game. Note: the line has dropped from 5½-6 points on Friday to 3-3½ point on Saturday. I liked the Chargers when the number was at that high point, but at just three I would go with the Raiders.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Chargers 24
Raiders -3

 

2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Kenny Albert, Charles Davis
Broadcast in Arizona, Atlanta and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).
Bucs favored by 1½; over/under 45½; Money Line Bucs -125, Ariz +105

Adrian Peterson talked his way out of New Orleans, where he was a bad fit. While he is an upgrade over Chris Johnson, Arizona still has no running game due to their porous offensive line. The Cardinals best bet is to just use him as a decoy on play action passes. Just throw the ball to whomever is being covered by Buccaneer CB Vernon Hargreaves, who gives the opposition a 12 yard cushion yet still manages to get beat deep. Cardinal CB Patrick Peterson versus Buc WR Mike Evans makes this game watchable. If Tampa Bay can make some field goals for a change they could win this game.

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Buccaneers 20
Cardinals +1½

 

★★ — Meh Games

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Houston Texans
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Broadcast in Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Tennessee (except Memphis), Texas, Jacksonville and Shreveport.
Texans favored by 9; over/under 47; Money Line Hou -450, Cle +350

The Texans are now without both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus. There is still Jadeveon Clowney, but Joe Thomas should be able to neutralize his production. Houston QB DeShaun Watson has been outstanding, and should be able to beat Cleveland LB Jamie Collins when he decides to run. Despite the losses of defensive playmakers, I’ll take the team with Watson at quarterback over the one with Kevin Hogan.

Prediction: Texans 31, Browns 21
Texans -9

 

2-2 Miami Dolphins at 3-1 Atlanta Falcons
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Broadcast in most of the southeast: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana (except Shreveport and New Orleans) and Florida (except Jacksonville).
Falcons favored by 13; over/under 45½; Money Line Atl -900, Mia +600

Atlanta was aided by questionable officiating in a pair of early season victories; now they are helped out by their schedule. Injuries are never a good thing, but their bye last week came at the best possible time. The Falcons should get WR Julio Jones and OLB Vic Beasley back for Sunday’s game, though WR Mohammed Sanu is out. Regardless of who suits up, it is difficult to envision a scenario where Miami wins. The Dolphins are averaging an NFL-worst 10.3 points per game; how can they keep pace with the Falcons? On top of that the Fins are dealing with the aftermath of a scandal involving a coach, and are on the verge of a quarterback controversy.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Dolphins 10
Falcons -13

 

1-4 Chicago Bears at 3-2 Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Ravens favored by 6½; over/under 39½; Money Line Bal -300, Chi +250

Another week, another pushover for the Ravens. Baltimore has victories over Cincinnati (before the Bengals fired their OC), Cleveland and Oakland (with EJ Manuel at QB). In their two other games the Ravens were outscored 70-16. Baltimore will be in first place in the AFC North on Sunday night, but it’s a façade. Perhaps Jordan Richard can run the ball effectively to keep the game close. Chicago rookie QB Mitch Trubisky has no receivers who can catch the ball.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bears 17
Ravens -6½

 

0-5 San Francisco 49ers at 2-2 Washington Redskins
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Broadcast in northern California, DC, North Carolina, eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia and Reno NV.
Redskins favored by 11; over/under 46½; Money Line Wash -600, SF +450

In my opinion three consecutive road games should be abolished in the NFL. It simply puts to much of a burden on that team’s ability to prepare, and inevitably results in a sloppy game. Here we are with SF, an already talented-deficient team, having to overcome that obstacle against a rested club. The Washington defense has performed better than anticipated this year, while the Niners are managing to score just 17.8 points per game (25th). Throw in possible dissension over the release of Navorro Bowman, and we have the recipe for an ugly blowout. The Niners have been competitive; each of their last four games has been decided by a field goal or less. Consecutive overtime losses have to be incredibly frustrating though.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Niners 13
Redskins -11

 

0-5 New York Giants at 3-1 Denver Broncos
8:30 pm ET Sunday on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Broncos favored by 12; over/under 39; Money Line Den -700, NYG +500

Let’s see, the Giants can’t stop the run or the pass. They are down four receivers. Their offensive line stinks. In the span of five weeks they have gone from a supposed Super Bowl contender to a team planning on the 2018 draft. Now they have to travel 1800 miles and play 5280 feet above sea level. Against a well rested team that ranks first in the NFL in defense (261 yards per game).

Considering what a hypocrite Giant owner John Mara is, I shed no tears. The puppet master pulling Roger Goodell’s strings for his own betterment thought he was all set when he had the commissioner suspend Ezekiel Elliot. Watching his team fail so miserably should bring a smile to every football fan’s face.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Giants 10
Broncos -12 (two units)

 

— Bottom of the Barrel

2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
8:30 pm ET Monday on espn; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
No lines at this point in time due to uncertainty on status of Marcus Mariota.

If Mariota plays: Titans 24, Colts 20
If Cassel plays: Colts 24, Titans 17

 

Teaser (three units):
Broncos -6
Redskins -5

 

NFL Week 6 Odds, Announcers & TV Broadcast Distribution

John Morgan
October 14, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

In a network decision nobody anticipated before the 2017 NFL season began, a Sunday afternoon Jets game will be broadcast to most of the nation. Three games dominate the NFL Week 6 afternoon broadcast distribution. Most of the nation will be fed the following games Sunday afternoon. In the early time slot CBS will air the New England Patriots at New York Jets for the lead in the AFC East. Pittsburgh at Kansas City will follow as the marquee game on CBS in the late afternoon. Fox has the single game this week, with Green Bay at Minnesota being broadcast by the majority of their affiliates. The prime time games are nothing to stay up for this week. The winless Giants are at Denver on Sunday night in what should be a blowout. Week 6 wraps up with the Colts at Tennessee on Monday night.

Odds listed are as of Friday the 13th. Lines have already changed during the week, and are many are likely to do so again before kickoff.

 

Early Games on CBS

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Houston Texans
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Broadcast in Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Tennessee (except Memphis), Texas, Jacksonville and Shreveport.
Texans favored by 9½; over/under 46½; Money Line Hou -475, Cle +375

3-2 New England Patriots at 3-2 New York Jets
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Broadcast in all markets except those airing the Browns-Texans and Dolphins-Falcons games. Also not broadcast in DC, Baltimore, Minneapolis and New Orleans due to NFL blackout rules.
Patriots favored by 9½; over/under 47½; Money Line NWE -475, NYJ +375

2-2 Miami Dolphins at 3-1 Atlanta Falcons
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Broadcast in most of the southeast: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana (except Shreveport and New Orleans) and Florida (except Jacksonville).
Falcons favored by 12½; over/under 46½; Money Line Atl -850, Mia +575

 

Early Fox Games

3-2 Detroit Lions at 2-2 New Orleans Saints
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Dan Hellie, Chris Spielman
Broadcast in Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi.
Saints favored by 4; over/under 50; Money Line NOR -210, Det +180

4-1 Green Bay Packers at 3-2 Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman
Broadcast in most of the US; see the five other games on Fox for exceptions.
Packers favored by 3; over/under 46; Money Line GB -175, Min +155

1-4 Chicago Bears at 3-2 Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Ravens favored by 6½; over/under 39½; Money Line Bal -300, Chi +250

0-5 San Francisco 49ers at 2-2 Washington Redskins
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Broadcast in northern California, DC, North Carolina, eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia and Reno NV.
Redskins favored by 11; over/under 46½; Money Line Wash -600, SF +450

 

Late Games on Fox

3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth
Broadcast in Boston, southern California, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and West Palm Beach.
Jaguars favored by 2½; over/under 42½; Money Line Jax -145, Rams +125

2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Kenny Albert, Charles Davis
Broadcast in Arizona, Atlanta and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).
Bucs favored by 1½; over/under 45½; Money Line Bucs -125, Ariz +105

 

Late Games on CBS

3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Broadcast in all markets except Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Chiefs favored by 4½; over/under 47; Money Line KC -215, Pitt +185

1-4 Los Angeles Chargers at 2-3 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Broadcast in Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Raiders favored by 5½; over/under 51½; Money Line Oak -250, LAC +210

 

Prime Time Games

0-5 New York Giants at 3-1 Denver Broncos
8:30 pm ET Sunday on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Broncos favored by 12; over/under 39; Money Line Den -700, NYG +500

2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
8:30 pm ET Monday on espn; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
No lines at this point in time.

Thursday Night: Philadelphia Eagles 28 (at) Carolina Panthers 23
Panthers: -3, -150
Eagles: +3, +130
over/under: 44

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

 

NFL Week 7 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats favored by 4 vs Falcons

John Morgan
October 12, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has published their latest NFL Advanced Betting Lines. These early odds are posted prior to the following week’s games, including the Thursday Night Football game. Also known as Look-Ahead lines, they give the adventurous sports fan an opportunity to wager on games up to twelve days away. If you are in Vegas and have a good feeling about a matchup further down the road, the Westgate offers an opportunity to get a jump on odds that could be less favorable after Sunday’s games.

Week 7 is highlighted by a rematch of what was possibly the greatest championship game in pro sports history. The Atlanta Falcons will travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots a week from Sunday night. The professional handicappers at the Westgate have listed the defending champs as four point favorites for the moment.

Since home field accounts for about a three point advantage on NFL betting lines, that means the Pats would be considered to be slightly (one point) better than Atlanta on a neutral field. That may come as a bit of a surprise to those who have witnessed the performance of New England’s defense this season. On the other hand the Falcons had issues to deal with as well after losing to Buffalo. In spite of extra time to recuperate after last week’s bye, Atlanta still had nine players on this week’s initial injury report. Wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (hamstring), defensive tackle Courtney Upshaw (ankle/knee), wide receiver Justin Hardy (illness) and kicker Matt Bryant (back) did not participate in practice on Wednesday. Wide receiver Julio Jones (hip) was limited, as was outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Atlanta’s premier pass rusher has missed the last two games with a hamstring strain/tear.

Aside from the Sunday night showdown, NFL week 7 does have other games of note. Kansas City is at Oakland for one of those rare Thursday night games worth watching. New Orleans travels to Green Bay in the early Sunday time slot, and the Broncos play the Chargers late Sunday afternoon. The week wraps up with the Eagles hosting Washington for what should be a good Monday night game.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati has been flexed from a 1:00 pm kickoff to 4:25. That may have been done to mask what was supposed to be a good game in that late afternoon time slot. The 0-5 Giants, now depleted of most of their wide receivers, are the week’s biggest underdogs at 7½ points – despite playing at home. Fortunately for Seattle fans that Seahawks-Giants game – which was originally slated to be the premier game for CBS – will remain in the late time slot. In other programming notes Carolina at Chicago moves from Fox to CBS; the Jets-Dolphins game will be found on Fox rather than CBS.

NFL Week 7 Early Odds

Thursday Oct 19 at 8:30 pm ET on CBS
Kansas City Chiefs (-2½) at Oakland Raiders

Sunday Oct 22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Tennessee Titans (off) at Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Carolina Panthers (-4½) at Chicago Bears

Sunday Oct 22 at 1:00 pm ET on Fox
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-4½)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-2)
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-6½)
Arizona Cardinals ‘at’ Los Angeles Rams (-3) in London

Sunday Oct 22 late afternoon games
Dallas Cowboys (-4½) at San Francisco 49ers, 4:00 pm ET on Fox
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7), 4:30 pm ET on CBS
Seattle Seahawks (-7½) at New York Giants, 4:30 pm ET on CBS
Denver Broncos (-2½) at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:30 pm ET on CBS

Prime Time Games, 8:30 pm ET
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4), Sun Oct 22 on NBC
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6½), Mon Oct 23 on espn

Week 7 Byes
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans

 

NFL Week 5 Odds, Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
October 8, 2017 at 9:30 am ET

NFL Week 5 kicked off with the unusual occurrence of a decent Thursday night game. The Patriots overcame two turnovers, twelve penalties and an inability to finish (1-3 in red zone, settling for four field goals) to defeat the Bucs 19-14 in Tampa. Nick Folk’s three missed field goals were the bulls eye for the wrath of Buc fans, but there was more to their loss than that. Tampa Bay was unable to capitalize on either turnover, and the play calling deserved scrutiny as well. Doug Martin gashed the Patriot defense to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, but he was not utilized at all on the final three possessions. Both teams are on the road next week: the Patriots at the Jets, and Tampa Bay at Arizona.

Pittsburgh (-8) is the only team favored by more than a touchdown this week. Tennessee (at Miami), Kansas City (at Houston) and Minnesota (at Chicago) join New England at Tampa as the Week 5 road favorites. The Patriots had spent most of the week at -5½ but Rob Gronkowski’s status spurred late money on the Bucs, bringing the final line to four points in most venues, and even 3½ at some parlors.

Some interesting Money Lines to consider this week include the underdog Chargers +150 at the Giants and Buffalo +150 at Cincinnati. On the other side favorites Tennessee -145 at Miami, Kansas City -120 at Houston, and Minnesota -145 at Chicago are worth a look. The largest point totals are Green Bay at Dallas (52½) and Seahawks at Rams (47½). On the other end of the scale Baltimore at Oakland and the Bills at Bengals both have over/unders of 39½.

To see what games are being broadcast in your neck of the woods, check out 506 Sports NFL Maps.

 

NFL Week 5 Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3½), o/u 45

The Chargers fired head coach Mike McCoy after losing so many winnable games a year ago. Fast forward to the 2017 season and it’s déjà vu. Under Anthony Lynn the Chargers are 0-4 with three losses by three points or less. The crowd could turn on the Giants should they fall behind, and they have never had much of a home field advantage over the years in East Rutherford.

Pick: Chargers 24, Giants 20
Chargers +3½ (two units)

 

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), 39½

The Buffalo defense is allowing an NFL best 13.5 point per game. Cincinnati’s offense struggled mightily the first two games of the year, but has scored 55 points the last two weeks. Flying under the radar is the Bengal defense. Cincy’s D is giving up just 16.8 points per game and 4.4 yards per play, both third best in the league. The Bills are attempting to win consecutive road games, and face the challenge of playing three away games in four weeks.

Pick: Bengals 17, Bills 13
Bengals -3
Under 39½

 

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (pick), 40

Both teams are devoid of talent and looking ahead to the 2018 draft. The Jets have taken a page from the movie Major League and are sabotaging management’s plans to tank. Todd Bowles has Gang Green playing solid fundamental football on defense, forcing opponents to go on long drives while waiting to exploit a mistake. Cleveland’s defense has played well against the run but the Browns are allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

Pick: Jets 20, Browns 17
Jets +0

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9), 42½

The Steelers beat arch rival Baltimore last week, and face the undefeated Chiefs a week ago. This is the perfect setup for a letdown, and the Jaguar defense is capable of keeping this game close.

Pick: Steelers 24, Jaguars 17
Jaguars +9

 

Tennessee Titans (-2½) at Miami Dolphins, 43

Matt Cassel is expected to get the start for Tennessee due to Marcus Mariota’s hamstring injury. Since 2012 Cassel is 8-18 with 27 TD and 36 picks. Despite Miami’s offensive impotence (last in the NFL with 8.3 points per game), it is really difficult to picture the Titans going on the road for a win Sunday.

Pick: Dolphins 16, Titans 13
Dolphins +2½
Under 43

 

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1½), 44½

There is no justification to take the Niners on the road straight up, and this point spread is so low that is essentially what one would be doing. Indy plays well in spurts but then looks awful the next quarter. The Colt defense is dead last at 34.0 points per game and is allowing 6.1 yards per play (29th). San Fran’s offense has been equally inefficient, so something has to give there. The Niners rank 26th in scoring (16.5 ppg), 26th in yards per play (4.7), 28th in the red zone (38.5%) and 30th on third down (30%).

Pick: Colts 24, Niners 20
Colts -1½

 

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6½), 45

The Cardinals have been unable to do anything at all on the ground since losing RB David Johnson in week one. That puts more pressure on Carson Palmer to carry the team. Problem is that the Cardinal offensive line is a sieve. Once the Eagles take a lead they can tee it up against that OL. Palmer has already been sacked a league high 17 times and that number may reach 20 – by halftime.

Pick: Eagles 24, Cardinals 13
Eagles -6½

 

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2½), 42½

Detroit leads the league with 11 takeaways, while Carolina has none in the last three games and is 31st with a -5 turnover differential. The Lion defense Carolina’s signature win last week was more about what the Patriot defense did not do than what the Panthers did do. Carolina is scoring 19.5 points per game despite having played against three bad defenses. Last week Cam Newton wasn’t able to handle success very well; how will he handle a loss with all eyes upon him Sunday? It’s really difficult to win back-to-back road games in the NFL.

Pick: Lions 20, Panthers 16
Lions -2½

 

NFL Week 5 Late Games

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1½), 47½

What, the Rams are favored to beat Seattle?! The Seahawk defense has struggled against opposing running backs in both the running game (5.0 yards per carry) and catching passes out of the backfield (8 yards per pass attempt). Todd Gurley presents a matchup problem for the Seattle defense that will not have the benefit of their 12th man home crowd. On the other side of the ball the Ram defense has struggled (4.9 yards per carry, 26.3 points per game), but still should be able to take advantage of a porous Seattle offensive line.

Pick: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
Rams -1½
Under 47½

 

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-3), 39½

Joe Flacco has now thrown an interception in ten straight games. The Raven QB has a league worst 5.0 yards per pass attempt and 31st ranked passer rating of 65.0. The Raven defense has struggled against the run, which plays right into Oakland’s game plan. With Derek Carr (back injury) out, EJ Manuel will be under center for the Raiders. That means plenty of carries for Marshawn Lynch and Jalen Richard.

Pick: Raiders 24, Ravens 17
Raiders -3

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3), 52½

Dallas plays much better at home, where Dak Prescott has a 109.6 passer rating in his last seven games. The Cowboy offensive line has not performed as well as they did last year, but should be able to easily handle a mediocre Green Bay defense. That means a big day for Ezekiel Elliott, who has underwhelmed to the tune of 3.6 yards per carry this year. The Packers will be able to score enough to make this game close, aided by the lack of Sean Lee on defense for Dallas. Cowboys get a small bit of revenge for last year’s playoff loss to Green Bay.

Pick: Cowboys 34, Packers 30
Cowboys -3
over 52½

 

NFL Week 5 Prime Time Games

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Houston Texans, 45 (Sunday night)

Houston obliterated Tennessee last week with an aggressive defense that limited the Titans to two third down conversions and nine first downs, while amassing five turnovers. DeShaun Watson broke through for five touchdowns last week and appears to be the franchise quarterback the Texans have been lacking since their inception. Kansas City finally has a good offense to compliment their defense for the first time since Dick Vermeil was the KC head coach. The Chiefs are averaging an NFL-best 6.8 yards per play, spreading the ball around to Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. KC is in a bit of a tough spot, going on the road after a hard fought Monday night game. In case you missed it the ‘meaningless’ final play of the game left gamblers in either ecstasy or agony.

Pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 20
Texans +1

 

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears, 40 (Monday night)

The Chicago defense is allowing 26.0 point per game (27th) and a 47% third down conversion rate (31st). Offensively they 29th in scoring (15.2 ppg) and 23rd in yards per play (4.9). It does not matter who the quarterback is for either team or where the game is played. Minnesota (and about 90% of the NFL) is more than a field goal better than Chicago.

Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 17
Vikings -3 (two units)

 

NFL Week 5 Byes

Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos

New Orleans Saints

Washington Redskins

 

NFL Week 2 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats 6.5 point favorites at Saints

John Morgan
September 8, 2017 at 8:30 pm ET

On Tuesday the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook published their NFL Regular Season Week 2 Advanced Betting Lines. Also known as Look-Ahead or Early Lines, these odds are released prior to any of the previous games – including Thursday night’s game between the Patriots and Chiefs. These Early Advanced Lines can and will differ substantially from odds posted by Vegas and offshore accounts by the time these games kick off next week. It will be interesting to see how the professional handicappers that set these lines react to the Pats loss to KC when the Week Two odds are initially set next week.

 

The Patriots at New Orleans looms to be the most analyzed game in the NFL heading into week two. It features two potent offenses led by a pair of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The Pats loss to the Chiefs will result in even more scrutiny, as New England strives to avoid an 0-2 start to the 2017 season. Last time these two met it was an incredible game. The Saints were up 27-23 with just over a minute to go, and the Patriots were out of timeouts. Brady led the Patriots on a 70-yard scoring drive, converting on 4th down and then connecting on a 17-yard touchdown pass to undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins with only five seconds remaining.

 

 

The last time these two met in The Big Easy it was a different story. New Orleans dominated both sides of the ball on a Monday night game and crushed New England, 38-17. With that victory the Saints improved to 11-0; they would go on to defeat the Colts in Super Bowl 44 that post-season.

 

Another game well worth watching will be played on Sunday night, with Green Bay at Atlanta. This is a rematch of last season’s NFC championship game, featuring a marketing executive’s dream: Matt Ryan an Aaron Rodgers. The two clubs are among the favorites (along with Seattle) to represent the NFC in next February’s Super Bowl. Clear your calendar; this should be one of, if not the best game of the 2017 season.

Thursday Sept 14 at 8:25 pm ET on NFLN
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Sunday Sept 17 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-8)
Tennessee Titans (-2½) at Jacksonville Jaguars
New England Patriots (-6½) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday Sept 17 at 1:00 pm ET on Fox
Arizona Cardinals (-3½) at Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6½)

Sunday Sept 17 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-15½)

Sunday Sept 17 at 4:25 pm ET on Fox
Dallas Cowboys (-1½) at Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams (PK)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-11½)

Sunday Sept 17 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Monday Sept 18 at 8:30 pm ET on espn
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-6)

 

Early Week 2 Best Bets:
Bucs (-6½) vs Bears
Skins (pk) at Rams
Texans (+3) at Bengals
Seahawks (-11½) vs Niners

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

Wild Card Weekend, What to Watch For

Steve Balestrieri
January 6, 2017 at 10:37 am ET

The Patriots are on a well-deserved bye week and will watch the goings on this weekend to learn who’ll be making the trek up to Foxboro next Saturday night. But the Divisional Round talk must wait, as the Wildcard teams square off this week.

The NFL begins with a snoozefest and ends with a bang. The first game of the weekend pits two quarterback-needy teams in Houston and Oakland and ends with a pair of Super Bowl MVPs in pitting the Green Bay Packers against the New York Giants.

Both the AFC and NFC, barring any big upsets appear to be three team races. With neither the Texans or the Raiders having a viable QB to lead them in the postseason, it looks to be Pittsburgh, Kansas City and New England vying for the AFC crown.

The winner of the Giants – Packers game will join the Falcons in having the best chance of beating the Cowboys in Dallas. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s take a look at how these games will break out and we’ll take a shot at predicting them.

Oakland 12-4 @ Houston 9-7:
Houston gets the home field advantage, courtesy of their winning the weakest division in football. But this game is defined by who each team is playing at QB. Houston shelled out big bucks for free agent Brock Osweiler this spring and to say he’s been disappointing would be an understatement. He was benched for Tom Savage but is now thrust back into the starting role due to Savage’s concussion.

The Raiders were a sexy pick to represent the AFC with an opportunistic defense and the stellar play of Derek Carr until he broke his leg. Matt McGloin came on until he too was injured. Now the Raiders turn to Connor Cook who starts his first game of his NFL career in the playoffs.

Houston won because of their defense which allowed the fewest yards in the league, just 301 yards per game. Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennel knows Cook is making his first start and may have some nerves entering. And he knows how to mix things up. But look Romeo to dial it up with his edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus.

Key matchup for the Texans defense will be CB Jonathan Joseph on WR Michael Crabtree. If Cook can get time to throw, look for him to target his 1000-yard receiver. The Raiders offense was potent all season and Crabtree was a big reason why.

Oakland’s defense was ranked 26th this season, allowing 376 yards per game but they have two edge rushers of their own with Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin who is playing some of his best football of his career with the Silver and Black.

This game will come down to defense, the two met in Mexico City earlier this season with the Raiders making a late comeback to win. But prior to that, Lamar Miller had a big day rushing for over 100 yards. The Texans will get Miller back this week and they’ll lean on him hard for this game. Osweiler has to stay out of third and long situations.

Who Wins? This one may come down to turnovers and who can protect the ball best. Houston, for all their warts were 7-1 at home. I think Miller has a productive day and the Texans defense makes a big stop to preserve a low-scoring affair. Texans 17-13

Detroit Lions 9-7 @ Seattle 10-5-1:
This will be an interesting matchup of two teams that rely on the comeback ability of their QBs to get it done at crunch time. While the first game had two teams hurting at the QB position, this one does not. However, Seattle and Detroit are two of the worst running teams in the playoffs.

The Lions win or lose off the arm of Matthew Stafford. In their nine wins, he’s tossed 17 TDs and just three interceptions. In their seven losses, his numbers are just seven TDs and seven INTs. He’s playing with a split on the middle finger of his throwing hand.

Seattle’s Russell Wilson has had an up and down year, he had to deal with the absence of a running game for the first time in his career and he struggled at times. The Seahawks defense still has Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett on the defensive line but the secondary really misses Earl Thomas.

Who Wins? Detroit hasn’t won a road playoff game since 1957. Seattle is a notoriously tough place to play and the crowd will be loud in this one. I don’t think Stafford will be able to generate a late comeback this time around, especially with the absence of a running game. Wilson gets it done and the 12th man is a big part. Seattle 24-21

Miami 10-6 @ Pittsburgh 11-5:
Pittsburgh won their last seven games of the season and enter the game as one of the hottest teams in the league, and this despite sitting Ben Roethlisberger in the final game of the regular season. Miami had one 9 of 10 before laying an egg at home last week against New England. They will be without QB Ryan Tannehill who sprained an MCL in Week 14. Matt Moore will start and he’s a 10-year veteran.

Miami won an October matchup 30-15 as Jay Ajayi rolled for 204 yards on the ground and Roethlisberger had one of his worst games of the season. Miami is going to need a big game for Ajayi to take the heat off of Moore, who has played very well since coming in for Tannehill. One thing Miami must do, and that is to start quicker. They have been notoriously slow starters all season. Last week they were down 20-0 to New England before waking up. If they start they slowly in Pittsburgh, they’ll get run out of there.

The Steelers big three of Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and LaVeon Bell are dangerous and should be primed for big games. Pittsburgh’s OL will have to account for Cameron Wake but Bell I believe will have a monster day against a Miami team weak against the run. Ryan Shazier is my “X” factor on defense.

Who Wins? Miami is being written off much too quickly and people forget their big win over the Steelers in October. However, the Steelers are a different team than they were then and playing in 20-degree temps in Heinz Field is a bit different than playing in the hot, humidity of South Beach. Bell carries the Steelers on offense while Shazier has a big day. Pittsburgh is on to a matchup in KC. Steelers 27-14

New York Giants 11-5 @ Green Bay Packers 10-6:
This matchup is the best for last as this should be the game of the week. Two Super Bowl MVP QBs in Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, cold temps in Lambeau Field and two historic franchises fighting it out.

Green Bay was scuffling along at 4-6 and the cries were “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” and he made a little prediction about the running the table and voila! The Pack wins six in a row and the Discount Doublecheck guy is being mentioned as an MVP candidate. During the winning streak, Rodgers was hot, flinging 15 TDs and zero INTs, completing 71 percent of his throws.

New York’s offense struggled all season, despite having Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, Manning scuffled along, being only the 22nd rated QB in the NFL this season. The Giants offense as a whole struggled, being just 25th in yardage and 26th in scoring. New York is hoping Manning turns it on as he did in the SB winning years of 2007 and 2011 in the playoffs which both had big wins at Lambeau.

Who Wins? The difference in this game may be the Giants defense. They were putrid in 2015 and then went out and spent a ton of money retooling it. And at first glance, they have the 23rd ranked pass defense in the league allowing 251 yards per game. Don’t be fooled by it. This unit got better as the year went on and they held their last four opponents to under 200 yards passing. They can ball hawk too with 19 interceptions in 2016. Upset alert. The Giants get a key late turnover and Manning leads a late field goal drive to send NY away with an upset victory. Giants 24-21. You know where this is going to lead…. Don’t you?

Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]

Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.