Heading into 2024, the New England Patriots were mostly considered to be a team in flux with too many issues and not enough answers to even be a factor in the NFL this season.
Following their 16-10 win in Week 1 over the Bengals where the operation was organized, smooth, and things looked like Jerod Mayo and his staff might be able to carry over some continuity into this new era, the Patriots took Seattle to the wire in Week 2 but came up short, and it all fell apart after that.
A 24-3 blowout loss to the Jets continued what became a six-game losing streak, dropping New England to 1-6 heading into the final weekend of October, and seemingly closing the door to any chance of even being anything other than a spoiler for the rest of this season.
At one point, knowing where they were at, Mayo’s goal was to see his club continue to improve, telling reporters that his hope was that his club would be a team that “no one wants to play,” heading into the rest of the season.
Part of that has already come to fruition. The Patriots have irritated two fan bases after Drake Maye engineered a stretch where New England has won two of its last three, leaving behind chaos with each of the two teams they’ve beaten.
A win over the Jets set off a firestorm in New York, leading to the fan base and media turning on Aaron Rodgers after the Patriots handed them a 25-22 loss at Gillette Stadium three weeks ago. Two weeks later, they dominated the Bears in Chicago. That’s a team that started off 4-2 but has now dropped three straight, with a loss to New England being the final straw given that they clearly felt they were the superior team and had no business losing at home to Mayo’s club.
Like the Jets, that loss ignited an intense backlash from fans who saw the Bears fire offensive coordinator Shane Waldron following New England’s 19-3 win this past Sunday. The nine sacks the Patriots defense put up also has some believing Chicago could be on the verge of ruining its first-round quarterback, Caleb Williams, which would be a massive setback for a team that has been searching for an answer at that position for nearly two decades.
As a result, the perception of the Patriots around the league is not high and they’re a team who many point to on the schedule as an “easy” win.
But Maye’s growth the last few weeks is starting to change that. The rookie’s mobility and pocket presence has been outstanding thus far, compensating for a shaky offensive line and a receiving group that is still having its struggles getting open.
He heads into this weekend at 2-3 as a starter with a chance to get to .500 with the Rams coming into Gillette Stadium. Sunday’s game marks a stretch where the Patriots are facing four teams who aren’t exactly on a roll right now in the Rams, Dolphins, Colts, and Cardinals. They have two of those three teams at home (Rams and Colts), while Maye would also have to do something the club has struggled to do in recent years, and that’s get a win down in Miami.
Four Wins Could Change Things
Sitting at 3-7, you would think the talk would shift to 2025 and if it were any other season, there wouldn’t be much room for any further discussion. Yet, should New England somehow put together a four-game run, which would also include a bye week after their match-up at home against Indianapolis in just over two weeks, they would head into the final three weeks of the season at 7-7 with a chance to make some noise.
Those final three weeks will see the Patriots face Buffalo twice in three games, with a match-up against the Chargers mixed in between. Splitting with Buffalo and beating Los Angeles would put them at 9-8, albeit the thought of that feels like a longshot.
Still, the NFL is in the middle of a weird season. Looking at the AFC, there’s far more mediocre than good this season, which is why this door even remains open. Only the AFC North and AFC West have more than one team with a winning record, with the Broncos sitting at .500 while being one of the few clubs in the Conference with five wins.
Compare that to this time last season, where every division in the AFC had at least two teams at .500 or better. In fact, last year, the AFC had 11 teams with five or more wins at this time, compared to just 7 in 2024.
And that’s where things get somewhat interesting. Looking around the NFL last year, both Houston and Green Bay started out 2023 at 3-4 and 2-5, respectfully, (the Packers were actually 3-6 in Week 10 last year, while Houston was 5-4), with Green Bay finishing 9-8, and Houston ending up at 10-7. Both made the playoffs.
While getting to 10 wins seems like a pipe dream for this current Patriots team, putting together a run against this next stretch doesn’t feel impossible if Maye can continue to play the way he has been. The Rams looked awful against Miami Monday night, and they could be another team whose fan base might lose its mind should they fall to the “lowly” Patriots this weekend.
The same might be said for the 3-6 Dolphins, who will be at home when the Patriots visit. An upset would likely not sit well, given that Miami has a slim margin for error with eight weeks left in their season, and having their postseason hopes dashed by a team like New England might also spark changes.
That feels like it’s been the storyline so far. Each of New England’s two recent victories has left collateral damage in its wake because they’re simply viewed as a bad team no one has any business losing to.
Schefter Doesn’t Believe Patriots Will Be A Factor
ESPN’s Adam Schefter appeared on WEEI on Wednesday and he believes that of all the teams with losing records, the likelihood of any of them emerging would likely be only the Dolphins.
“Miami. I don’t see Dallas. I don’t see New England,” said Schefter. “And if Tua stays healthy, I could see Miami doing it. If Tua stays healthy, I could see Miami at least making things interesting. I could see that happening.”
“I don’t rule them out yet,” Schefter continued, referring to the Dolphins. “I think that’s a pretty talented team that’s playing tough defensively, that’s capable of making a push. But when you have three wins, your margin of error is so small and so reduced that as soon as you lose a game that you shouldn’t, your hopes are basically all but up in smoke.”
That’s what might make that Week 12 match-up so interesting. The Patriots would head into that game with nothing to lose, given the expectations and where they are right now as a franchise. The Dolphins, meanwhile, would be the ones facing the pressure, going up against a team they should easily beat while also being in a position where they can’t afford to lose.
And this one isn’t necessarily a lock for the Dolphins. Unlike facing Mac Jones, Maye changes the landscape of that match-up. He’s honestly the first quarterback the Patriots have had in a while who can potentially go toe-to-toe against Miami, with Maye’s feet being just as dangerous as his arm. Unlike Jones, Maye can also get the football to any point on the field, which, as we’ve seen, has already caused teams problems at times compared to recent years. Not to mention the fact he’s so dangerous with his arm outside the pocket, which again, is a massive step forward compared to their previous quarterback.
Schefter went on to add that any team playing in January is likely going to be the result of how its quarterback plays. He attributes that to all of these teams struggling at the halfway point, and he believes how things go over these eight weeks is going to come down to that.
“There’s a different explanation with all these three win teams,” said Schefter. “Now, there are a bunch of two-win teams, and the league does seem a little bit more ‘have and have not’ this year than in other years. There’s usually a little bit more parity. And I think that, if I had to guess just off the top of my head, maybe the biggest thing that separates the ‘haves and the have nots’ is, I think, the separation between good quarterback play and bad play, bad quarterback play, is so pronounced that it literally separates franchises.”
“Carolina has not gotten good quarterback play. New England, for a lot of the season, did not get good quarterback play. Miami, when Tua was out, did not get good quarterback play. So I really believe it’s all about that.”
And in a season with so much bad, that may be why the Patriots’ shot of playing in January, as unlikely as it probably is, remains in play. After all, the Texans and Packers didn’t expect to be there at this point last year either, yet they ended up in the mix. And growth by both C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love last year ended up being the reason.
With Christian Barmore potentially coming back at some point, which could solidify what had been a leaky run defense, along with possibly safety Kyle Dugger, and then Cole Strange up front on offense, the Patriots could be getting some reinforcements to stabilize things for a team who has also seen injuries play a factor in some of their issues.
In the end, maybe they make it, maybe they don’t. But the fact you can even use the word “maybe” at all is simply thanks to all the bad that’s out there in the NFL right now.
With that in mind, the Patriots simply need to make sure they’re not the worst of that group over these next eight weeks. If that happens, they’ll be just what Mayo alluded to – a team no one wants to play that could not only be a spoiler, but also finish among the last teams standing.
That, in and of itself would be surprising. But in a year full of surprises around the league for all the wrong reasons, the opportunity will be in play for a team that probably shouldn’t be there.
Maybe it’s the Patriots. Maybe it isn’t. But either way, thanks to all the teams who came into this year with high expectations and are grossly underperforming, they’re the reason that door for New England isn’t closed just yet.
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Ian Logue is a Seacoast native and owner and senior writer for PatsFans.com, an independent media site covering the New England Patriots and has been running this site in one form or another since 1997.
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