NFL Playoff Picture, Week 13: Panthers Clinch, Patriots Drop To #3 Seed

Prior to their come from behind victory over New Orleans, Carolina became the first team to clinch a playoff spot when Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta 23-19. The Panthers have won their third straight NFC South title and are a virtual lock for a first round bye. Meanwhile New England’s upset loss to Philadelphia dropped the Patriots to the number three seed in the AFC – though what many are overlooking is that the Pats still control their own destiny for a first round bye since Denver and Cincinnati play each other in Week 16.

There are three 7-5 and two 6-6 AFC teams battling for two wild card spots. The Chiefs won their sixth straight game to currently control the number five spot, while at the same time crushing division rival Oakland’s playoff hopes with their 34-20 victory over the Raiders. The difference between being the number five seed and number six seed cannot be understated. The #5 seed gets whichever mediocre team wins the pathetic AFC South, while the #6 seed has to go on the road and face one of the 10-2 teams. Meanwhile in the NFC the Packers and Vikings swapped positions as number three and five seeds after Green Bay’s improbable win with no time remaining and the Vike’s loss to Seattle. The Seahawks went on the road and blew Minnesota out 38-7 for a fifth victory in their last six games, with three very winnable games on the horizon.

AFC

1. Cincinnati Bengals
10-2 [4-0 division, 8-1 conference]
3-game division lead over Pittsburgh with 4 to play
vs Steelers, at 49ers, at Broncos, vs Ravens
22% chance for #1 seed; 50% for a bye; 99% for #3 or better

2. Denver Broncos
10-2 [3-1 division, 6-2 conference]
3-game division lead over Kansas City with 4 to play
vs Raiders, at Steelers, vs Bengals, at Chargers
52% chance for #1 seed; 77% for a bye; 99% for #3 or better

3. New England Patriots
10-2 [4-0 division, 7-1 conference]
3-game division lead over New York Jets with 4 to play
at Texans, vs Titans, at Jets, at Dolphins
27% chance for #1 seed; 73% for a bye; 99% for #3 or better

4. Indianapolis Colts
6-6 [3-0 division, 4-4 conference]
Tied with Houston, wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head victory
at Jaguars, vs Texans, at Dolphins, vs Titans
65% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 34% chance of missing playoffs

5. Kansas City Chiefs
7-5 [3-1 division, 6-2 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Jets and Steelers based on conference record
vs Chargers, at Ravens, vs Browns, vs Raiders
2% chance of winning AFCW and #3 seed; 79% for #5 seed; 14% for #6

6. New York Jets
7-5 [2-2 division, 5-4 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Steelers based on conference record
vs Titans, at Cowboys, vs Patriots, at Bills
10% chance for #5 seed, 29% for #6 seed, 61% for no playoffs

7. Pittsburgh Steelers
7-5 [1-2 division, 4-4 conference]
Next two games will determine own fate, plus top three seeding
at Bengals, vs Broncos, at Ravens, at Browns
1% chance of winning AFCN and #3 seed; 7% for #5 seed; 25% for #6; 67% for no playoffs

8. Buffalo Bills
6-6 [3-2 division, 6-5 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Houston with Sunday’s victory over Texans
at Eagles, at Redskins, vs Cowboys, vs Jets
Cannot win AFCE; 2% chance for #5 seed; 27% for #6; 71% chance for no playoffs

9. Houston Texans
6-6 [2-1 division, 4-4 conference]
Blew chance to take division lead with Sunday’s loss at Buffalo
vs Patriots, at Colts, at Titans, vs Jaguars
34% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 2% chance for #6 seed; 64% chance for no playoffs

10. Oakland Raiders
5-7 [1-2 division, 5-4 conference]
Sunday’s home loss to Chiefs all but mathematically eliminated Oakland
at Broncos, vs Packers, vs Chargers, at Chiefs
1% chance for the #6 seed; 99% chance for no playoffs

11. Miami Dolphins
5-7 [0-5 division, 3-6 conference]
Despite Sunday’s victory over Baltimore, Miami is toast
vs Giants, at Chargers, vs Colts, vs Patriots
Less than 1% chance of making playoffs as a wild card

4-8 Jaguars, 4-8 Ravens, 3-9 Titans, 3-9 Titans
All virtually (but not technically) eliminated
2-10 Cleveland Browns are first and only team to be eliminated thus far

NFC

1. Carolina Panthers
12-0 [3-0 division, 8-0 conference]
Clinched NFC South; magic number of one for a bye, three for home field throughout playoffs
vs Falcons, at Giants, at Falcons, vs Giants
97% chance for #1 seed; less than 1% chance of not getting a bye

2. Arizona Cardinals
10-2 [4-1 division, 7-1 conference]
3-game division lead over Seattle with four to play
vs Vikings, at Eagles, vs Packers, vs Seahawks
3% chance for #1 seed; 81% for a bye; 97% for #3 or better

3. Green Bay Packers
8-4 [3-2 division, 6-3 conference]
Hold tiebreaker over Vikings based on Week 11 win at Minnesota
vs Cowboys, at Raiders, at Cardinals, vs Vikings
11% chance for #2 seed; 48% for #3; 35% for wild card; 4% for no playoffs

4. Washington Redskins
5-6 [2-1 division, 5-3 conference]
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants
vs Cowboys, at Bears, vs Bills, at Eagles, at Cowboys
59% chance of winning NFCE; 40% chance of missing playoffs

5. Minnesota Vikings
8-4 [3-1 division, 5-3 conference]
Similar to AFC situation, the #5 seed has a much easier game (vs NFC East winner) than #6 seed
at Cardinals, vs Bears, vs Giants, at Packers
7% chance for #2 seed; 31% for #3; 20% for #5; 29% for #6; 11% for no playoffs

6. Seattle Seahawks
7-5 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
Seahawks would take tiebreaker over Vikings based on Sunday’s victory at Minnesota
at Ravens, vs Browns, vs Rams, at Cardinals
3% chance of winning NFCW and #3 seed; 48% for #5; 34% for #6; 15% for no playoffs

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6-6 [3-1 division, 5-3 conference]
Bucs win tiebreaker over Falcons based on season series sweep
vs Saints, at Rams, vs Bears, at Panthers
6% chance for #5 seed; 14% for #6; 80% for no playoffs

8. Atlanta Falcons
6-6 [0-3 division, 4-5 conference]
Falcons have lost five straight after a 5-0 start to season
at Panthers, at Jaguars, vs Panthers, vs Saints
2% chance of being a wild card; 98% chance of no playoffs

9. Philadelphia Eagles
5-7 [2-2 division, 3-6 conference]
Head-to-head: 0-1 vs Skins, 1-0 vs Giants, 1-1 vs Cowboys
vs Bills, vs Cardinals, vs Redskins, at Giants
31% chance of winning NFCE and #4 seed; 69% for no playoffs

10. New York Giants
5-7 [2-3 division, 4-5 conference]
Blown opportunity with loss to Jets; 1-1 vs Skins, 0-1 vs Philly, 1-1 vs Dallas
at Dolphins, vs Panthers, at Vikings, vs Eagles
7% chance of winning NFCE and #4 seed; 92% for no playoffs

11. Chicago Bears
5-7 [1-3 division, 2-6 conference]
A home loss to SF? Stick a fork in these Bears, they are done
vs Skins, at Vikings, at Bucs, vs Lions
4% chance of being the #6 seed; 95% for no playoffs

4-8 Saints, 4-8 Rams, 4-8 Lions, 4-8 49ers
All virtually (but not technically) eliminated
3-8 Cowboys could move to within two games back in NFCE with a win Monday night