Will Cassel be franchised tomorrow (Feb 5/09)?

[JSn]

Good call OP.

Thanks. I didn't really think the Pats history of FT use would apply to this situation. More-over, there may be a nod-wink deal in place with Scott P.

 

[JSn]

Patriots franchise Cassel - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

"Matt has been a pleasure to coach his entire career and last season in particular, when his years of hard work and commitment resulted in a most impressive performance," said Patriots coach Bill Belichick in a press release. "We look forward to working with Matt again in 2009."

Bill is wise. This is a business move all the way. Those simple words have opened the door to mad speculation and probably one of the most insane trades we'll hear of this year.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

The minute the Pats franchise Matt, that $14.6M cap room disappears, so my guess is that they will wait at least a week to 10 days before they do anything. They can talk with teams and lay the groundwork for a deal, talk to the agent and let him know what they plan to do. They might even give the agent a heads up and let him negotiate a new contract with the trading partner. Nothing can be done until Feb 27, so keeping that money off of the books makes all the sense in the world for the Pats.

Boy was I wrong! But it makes sense, it lets everybody know where they stand, lets them get their scouting in order, and gives Matt's agent enough time to get things done quickly.

Or, as wrong as I have been so far, maybe they keep him!

 

[PATSNUTme]

please provide 5 sources to verify this....

haha. im just playing

OK, they meant GMT.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I am pretty sure he has to sign the tender to be traded. I am also pretty sure he can renegotiate a contract and sign it the day he is traded :singing:.

If he gets traded, he will make esentially 30 million guaranteed. signing bonus and first years salary. If he is as good as we seem to think he is, he will get the signing bonus and multiple years, bring his take up to the $40M range. If he stays with the Pats he get 14.6 guaranteed for one year. Matt is a nice guy, but passing up a chance at $30M because he is loyal to the Pats would be nuts. I mean, the Pats like him but are trading him away because he isn't worth the $30M to them.

So why do you think he would retire after one year and $14.5 million under the franchise tag, rather than take the $14.5 million and then go BACK into free agency next season and collect another $30 million guranteed - plus the first year's salary? :singing:

Unless someone thinks that his first year salary is going to be $14.5 million on top of his signing bonus there's no question that he can get the most money in the first two years by signing his tender, sitting on the bench behind Brady for this season (hence - little risk of injury) and cash in next year.

As I said, that's not going to happen because Cassel would rather take $30 million and play as a starter next year rather than $45 million to wait another year to start.

 

[JoeSixPat]

You make it sound as if there's no risk to signing the tender, when in fact there is. Regardless of what his actual worth might be, there will almost certainly be more talent available at QB next year than this year. Right now, if you're looking for a QB who can be your long-term solution, Cassel's pretty much the only available option.

Are you saying he could be hit by a car?

I suppose he could. But as you know he's under no obligation to play during the pre-season, and simply needs to sit on the bench behind Brady.

So unlike many players who don't want to play under the franchise tag because they will be playing - Cassel will (hopefully) be risking a headset electrocution or serious splinter from the bench, no?

I suppose if some teams would rather pay an untested rookie $30 million next year rather than $30 million to a tested veteran, than I suppose you'd be right about that risk. Cassel's value isn't going to go higher - but if he were forced to sit on the bench for a season behind Brady I don't see that deminishing what he accomplished this year.

In other words, GMs are not going to abandon faith in Cassel because he is unable to unseat Brady as a starter.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Why wouldn't Cassel sign the tag on the first? Perhaps because he and his agent want to choose the team he plays for and wants to see if any team he wants to play for will offer the patriots two firsts: the jets and vikings come to mind. Signing the tender turns over the power of decision-making to the patriots.

If getting the most guranteed money over the next 2 years is the goal then he'd sign the tender.

If getting slightly less money over the next 2 years (but still a nice butload) but actually starting is the goal, then he won't sign.

Signing the tender doesn't so much turn over the power of decision making to the Patriots as much as it ensures they WON'T be able to find a trading partner - as they'd be required to give up 2 first round draft picks. He would simply collect his $14.5 million for sitting on the bench behind Brady, with very little risk of injury - and collect his $30 million guaranteed next season.

That begins to get a little convoluted because he'd be running the risk that the Pats would tag him again to get a draft pick in return - though the cost would REALLY be prohibitive.

Suffice to say, by tagging him today, I'd guess that the Pats have at least a verbal assurance that Cassel wants to be traded, is not looking only for the maximum dollar and DOES want to start for another team next season. As such it will be a cooperative effort for each side to get what they want. Of course if things don't pan out over the next several weeks, he can change his mind and sign the tender as long as the Pats don't rescind it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

So why do you think he would retire after one year and $14.5 million under the franchise tag, rather than take the $14.5 million and then go BACK into free agency next season and collect another $30 million guranteed - plus the first year's salary? :singing:

Unless someone thinks that his first year salary is going to be $14.5 million on top of his signing bonus there's no question that he can get the most money in the first two years by signing his tender, sitting on the bench behind Brady for this season (hence - little risk of injury) and cash in next year.

Again, you're assuming that the demand for Cassel will be the same in 2010 as it would be in 2009. There is a lot of evidence (see the QBs that will be coming out in the draft in 2010) to suggest otherwise.

Also, if the Pats don't trade him, they will almost certainly seek to extend him long-term, so they don't have to carry a $15M cap for the entire year.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Again, you're assuming that the demand for Cassel will be the same in 2010 as it would be in 2009. There is a lot of evidence (see the QBs that will be coming out in the draft in 2010) to suggest otherwise.

Also, if the Pats don't trade him, they will almost certainly seek to extend him long-term, so they don't have to carry a $15M cap for the entire year.

And those rookies are risking injury playing in college this season too - so I guess they should be coming out in the draft this year, no?

Technically the entire NFL could disband - a comet could hit the earth - lots of "risk"

But in a football sense, Cassel's value, in another season with NFL inflation and the potential for an uncapped year is going to at best increase his value - even against a rookie who, with not one NFL snap under his belt who is going to command the same amount of money.

Asante Samuel's a good case in point - and he actually WAS risking a lot because he played a full season - potential injury and potential poor performance could have hurt his value. But it didn't - and he got significantly more money in the first two years (Tagged year and first year of his contract plus all guranteed) than he would have if he JUST took the first two years of his new contract.

Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog: Asante Samuel's Contract

See for yourself.

Asante got $8 million in 2007 plus $20 million guranteed by signing with the Eagles in 2008.

That's $28 million over 2 years.

Had he not been tagged and signed a year earlier (at what would probably be lower 2007 NFL dollars) he'd be looking at only the $20 million (well more like $23 counting salary - but that's still less than $28)

Again - the difference here is that Asante risked a lot - but was rewarded with more. In Cassel's case with Brady playing he wouldn't be risking injury, or poor performance... AND he'd potentially be looking to sign a contract in an uncapped year. AND Cassel is getting considerably more than Samuel did as a tagged player.

Keep in mind that unless Samuel was an idiot, he took out a pretty good insurance policy to pay him nearly all he'd make on a new contract in case of injury. That's money well spent, and I don't know why anyone thinks Cassel wouldn't do the same.

I think we're all in a "hypothetical" mode now that it appears that regardless of Bill's comments they are attempting to trade Cassel now - but I wouldn't agree that they would extend him long term this season to lessen his cap hit. That doesn't make sense to me at all.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

So why do you think he would retire after one year and $14.5 million under the franchise tag, rather than take the $14.5 million and then go BACK into free agency next season and collect another $30 million guranteed - plus the first year's salary? :singing:

Unless someone thinks that his first year salary is going to be $14.5 million on top of his signing bonus there's no question that he can get the most money in the first two years by signing his tender, sitting on the bench behind Brady for this season (hence - little risk of injury) and cash in next year.

As I said, that's not going to happen because Cassel would rather take $30 million and play as a starter next year rather than $45 million to wait another year to start.

If Matt gets hurt next year he won't be coming off of a great year. The smart play is to grab for the gusto while you can.

 

[Deus Irae]

If Matt gets hurt next year he won't be coming off of a great year. The smart play is to grab for the gusto while you can.

Derek Anderson could serve as a pretty good poster boy for your position.

 

[JoeSixPat]

If Matt gets hurt next year he won't be coming off of a great year. The smart play is to grab for the gusto while you can.

So you think that Cassel would be starting and Brady would be on the bench?

If that's the case I'd agree you're right - Cassel would be taking a big risk.

Of course everyone else would assume that Cassel would be on the bench and Brady would be starting - hence, less of a risk (except for that rash of major bench accidents awhile back.)

 

[E Belichick Unum]

So you think that Cassel would be starting and Brady would be on the bench?

If that's the case I'd agree you're right - Cassel would be taking a big risk.

Of course everyone else would assume that Cassel would be on the bench and Brady would be starting - hence, less of a risk (except for that rash of major bench accidents awhile back.)

OK, Cassel is hot right now. He had a great year and surprised everybody. So he signs the tender and purposely screws up any trade by refusing to negotiate with the new team. He could do it and his trade value goes way down. So the Pats keep him and he gets hurt in the preseason, or in garbage time in some blowout, or even worse for him he doesn't play a lick and O'Connell serves as #2 behind Brady. His value gets killed. He will probably never be hotter than he is today. He has a chance at either a big payday or a huge payday. He isn't rich, he made good money by normal standards, but backup money by NFL standards. He takes the payday, shakes Belichick's hand, thanks the Krafts and goes to Tampa, or MN, or Detroit.

Too many bad things can happen if he doesn't take the money now.

 

[JoeSixPat]

OK, Cassel is hot right now. He had a great year and surprised everybody. So he signs the tender and purposely screws up any trade by refusing to negotiate with the new team. He could do it and his trade value goes way down. So the Pats keep him and he gets hurt in the preseason, or in garbage time in some blowout, or even worse for him he doesn't play a lick and O'Connell serves as #2 behind Brady. His value gets killed. He will probably never be hotter than he is today. He has a chance at either a big payday or a huge payday. He isn't rich, he made good money by normal standards, but backup money by NFL standards. He takes the payday, shakes Belichick's hand, thanks the Krafts and goes to Tampa, or MN, or Detroit.

Too many bad things can happen if he doesn't take the money now.

Why would you be expecting him to play in the pre-season? He's under no obligation to whatsoever. Like Asante Samuel, he loses no money, and needs only report to the team for the regular season to collect his $14.65 million.

What incentive do you see him having to play during the pre-season and risk injury?

So you think that 1.) Cassel will be playing in the pre-season risking injury and then 2.) Cassel will be given the job as starter while Brady sits on the bench?

I just don't see that happening.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Why would you be expecting him to play in the pre-season? He's under no obligation to whatsoever. Like Asante Samuel, he loses no money, and needs only report to the team for the regular season to collect his $14.65 million.

What incentive do you see him having to play during the pre-season and risk injury?

So you think that 1.) Cassel will be playing in the pre-season risking injury and then 2.) Cassel will be given the job as starter while Brady sits on the bench?

I just don't see that happening.

So then he doesn't sign the tender? The Pats can always remove the tag, making Matt a FA.

It really doesn't matter, Matt will probably be traded before March 1.

 

[JoeSixPat]

So then he doesn't sign the tender? The Pats can always remove the tag, making Matt a FA.

It really doesn't matter, Matt will probably be traded before March 1.

I have no idea what you're talking about now.

All I'm saying is that if Cassel is interested in the most amount of guaranteed money in the next two years, then he's not going to do better than signing the tender and going back on the market next year. Once he signs the tender the Pats can't revoke it nor is it likely they could trade him.

Samuel got more in two years as a tagee/free agent than he would as just a free agent - and Samuel actually had to risk injury by PLAYING during the season. Unless someone's going to give Cassel a $14.65 million salary at the beginning of his contract, he'd make out better in guranteed money as weel - but unlike Asante - he would sit out the pre-season AND the season on the bench behind Brady.

The risk that the ten or so teams who are in need of a top QB this season would all solve their QB problems in THIS offseason also strikes me as very very low. As many have stated, the rookie QBs are weak this year, as is the Free Agent QB crop outside of Cassel and Anderson. Which QBs do they think are going to fill all the needs of the market this year?

The truth is that Cassel is more interested in playing, getting on with his own career, than sitting on the bench for another season even at $14.65 million. His agent is already working some ballpark numbers and in the worst case scenario, if he doesn't like the offers or locations, he can sign the tender - but I don't think that's going to happen.

But I strongly disagree with you that Cassel would start ahead of Brady or would see a reason to play in the pre-season under a franchise tag situation. All that being said, I'd be he's already taken an insurance policy out that will pay him what he'd make signing a long-term deal should he fall in a ditch and break his leg tomorrow. Everyone who talks about all the "risk" that players are taking forget that there's ways they protect themselves financially.