Thoughts on Sony Michel

[SammyBlueCat]

Somebody gets angry in 3...2...1

 

[cupofjoe1962]

RUNNING BACKS 2018 | Football Outsiders

Wow....

Succcess Rate has Michel 53% & Chubb 49%.
I am sure you ignored all the other stats listed that they had Chubb listed higher.

Here is all you need to know about the Success Rate stat.

Marlon Mack had a 54% success rate.
Ezekiel Elliot had a 50% success rate.
Saquon Barkley had a 43% success rate.

Do you think Marlon Mack is better than Ezekiel Elliot & Saquon Barkley????

I would have loved to see the running backs rated higher than Barry Sanders in his prime.

What a useless stat.

 

[primetime]

Wow....

Succcess Rate has Michel 53% & Chubb 49%.
I am sure you ignored all the other stats listed that they had Chubb listed higher.

Here is all you need to know about the Success Rate stat.

Marlon Mack had a 54% success rate.
Ezekiel Elliot had a 50% success rate.
Saquon Barkley had a 43% success rate.

Do you think Marlon Mack is better than Ezekiel Elliot & Saquon Barkley????

I would have loved to see the running backs rated higher than Barry Sanders in his prime.

What a useless stat.

It's a binary measure of how often a running back has a successful run in a given situation. Gaining 10 yards on 3rd and 15 is a lot different than gaining 10 yards on 2nd and 8, but that difference doesn't show up in the averages. Also smooths out short yardage carries, since a successful goal line or short yardage carry can drag down your average. It's an objective measure and they tell you how the variable of calculated.

It's a substantially more valid statistic than Pro Football Focus, which is a black box with someone looking at a player and going ehhh feels like this guy's an 81.3 today.

Also, Marlon Mack's been great when he's been healthy this year.

 

[Uptown]

Yep then he disappeared after the neck injury. Rumor was the local media hated him. I wonder if he was a pain in the ass.

Apparently he was a pain in the nose

 

[203Pat]

What a dumb take. These are nfl players he’s going against. It’s one thing to break runs untouched (like bolden last week against our Swiss cheese defense). It’s another to break though contact for those extra yards.

It was a dumb take in response to a dumb take. If you want to pound the drum saying “HE HAD A GOOD GAME AGAISNT THE JETS” then I don’t know what to tell you. I never said he’s a bad RB I just said based on the eye test he doesn’t look like a first round back. Basically saying he’s good but nothing special and I feel like running back could’ve been addressed a couple rounds later and we would get similar production.

 

[primetime]

It was a dumb take in response to a dumb take. If you want to pound the drum saying “HE HAD A GOOD GAME AGAISNT THE JETS” then I don’t know what to tell you. I never said he’s a bad RB I just said based on the eye test he doesn’t look like a first round back. Basically saying he’s good but nothing special and I feel like running back could’ve been addressed a couple rounds later and we would get similar production.

Few are a bigger detractor of drafting a running back in the 1st round than me, but his draft position is water under the bridge at this point.

 

[captain stone]

This was a problem we had noted throughout the game: Pats had very little success, and not for the first time, running up the middle behind either the LG/C or C/RG alleys. It didn't matter a whole lot who the ball-carrier was either.
More unfortunate was Bill's & Skippy's insistence on continuing to call those runs, especially during GTG situations. Really a shocking lack of imagination, or even concern, from them regarding a game-long negative trend which they obviously felt no need to stop using.

 

[cstjohn17]

He is ok

 

[ohiopatsfan]

With Michel, the Pats have, for the first time in years, a running back who is a threat to take the ball to the house every time he touches it. His injury history is troubling and he still does not appear to be a polished pass catcher, but his running is solid. For him to have a big game, the Pats need to control the LOS. They didn't do it against Miami on either side of the ball. Having Burkhead available to give Michel a rest also helps. The missing piece is a strong, between the tackles runner to pick up the tough yards, especially in the red zone. That's where the loss of Jeremy Hill for the season really hurts. Develin has taken up some of the slack but his best contribution is as a blocker. I will watch the beginning of the Steelers game closely to see which team controls the LOS. If it is the Pats, then it will be a good day for our side. If not, it could be a long and frustrating afternoon.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

It's a binary measure of how often a running back has a successful run in a given situation. Gaining 10 yards on 3rd and 15 is a lot different than gaining 10 yards on 2nd and 8, but that difference doesn't show up in the averages. Also smooths out short yardage carries, since a successful goal line or short yardage carry can drag down your average. It's an objective measure and they tell you how the variable of calculated.

It's a substantially more valid statistic than Pro Football Focus, which is a black box with someone looking at a player and going ehhh feels like this guy's an 81.3 today.

Also, Marlon Mack's been great when he's been healthy this year.

Success rate is a irrelevant stat and here is why.

Barry Sanders best season 1997, he averaged
6.1 yards per carry and rushed for 2.053 yards
And 11 touchdowns.
46% success rate - #16 overall

Charlie Garner -Philadelphia
547 yards rushing
3 touchdowns
53% RB success rate - #6 overall

Fred Lane - Carolina
810 yards rushing
7 touchdowns
53% success rate - #7 overall


RUNNING BACKS 1997 | Football Outsiders

According to your success rate stat
Charlie Garner & Fred Lane were more valuable than MVP Barry Sanders in 1997
&
Marlon Mack, K Johnson, S Michel, were more valuable than Ezekiel Eliot & Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Do you really believe this?
**************************
Now back to the original comparison.

Sony Michel
706 yards
5 total touchdowns
4.3 yards per carry average
53% success rate

Nick Chubb
760 yards
10 total touchdowns
5.3 yards per carry average
49% success rate

Do you really think Michel is having a better season than Chubb?

Chubb has twice as many touchdowns and a complete yard per carry better than Michel

Michel has a 4% success rate 53% to 49% better than Chubb.

Not to mention Michel is running behind a better rated OL with a better blocking TE & FB than Chubb.

According to your football outsiders the Patriots have the #3 rated Offensive line in 2018 while the Browns Offensive line is rated#21.

2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

 

[moosekill]

And Chub had two monster games that completely throw off his stats. Good bad or indifferent that is the problem. Plus, how many games has Sony missed? We can keep going back an forth on this. Sony has done very well this year. He was the 31st draft pick in the draft, so while he is officially a first rounder, lets be honest, he might as well have been drafted in the second. Some people sure enjoy complaining.

 

[moosekill]

On November 16, 2014, Gray rushed for 201 yards, and a franchise-record four touchdowns on 38 carries in his fourth NFL game.

His stats look better than Sony's too.

 

[primetime]

Success rate is a irrelevant stat and here is why.

Barry Sanders best season 1997, he averaged
6.1 yards per carry and rushed for 2.053 yards
And 11 touchdowns.
46% success rate - #16 overall

Charlie Garner -Philadelphia
547 yards rushing
3 touchdowns
53% RB success rate - #6 overall

Fred Lane - Carolina
810 yards rushing
7 touchdowns
53% success rate - #7 overall


RUNNING BACKS 1997 | Football Outsiders

According to your success rate stat
Charlie Garner & Fred Lane were more valuable than MVP Barry Sanders in 1997
&
Marlon Mack, K Johnson, S Michel, were more valuable than Ezekiel Eliot & Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Do you really believe this?
**************************
Now back to the original comparison.

Sony Michel
706 yards
5 total touchdowns
4.3 yards per carry average
53% success rate

Nick Chubb
760 yards
10 total touchdowns
5.3 yards per carry average
49% success rate

Do you really think Michel is having a better season than Chubb?

Chubb has twice as many touchdowns and a complete yard per carry better than Michel

Michel has a 4% success rate 53% to 49% better than Chubb.

Not to mention Michel is running behind a better rated OL with a better blocking TE & FB than Chubb.

According to your football outsiders the Patriots have the #3 rated Offensive line in 2018 while the Browns Offensive line is rated#21.

2018 OFFENSIVE LINES | Football Outsiders

I don't think anybody argued Sony was having a better season than Chubb, just that you're wildly overstating how divergent their seasons have been while trying to argue Sony is awful.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I don't think anybody argued Sony was having a better season than Chubb, just that you're wildly overstating how divergent their seasons have been while trying to argue Sony is awful.

Show me where I said Sony was awful?

I just pointed out that I wished they had picked Chubb based on their 2018 performance.

Your the one who grabbed hold of a irrelevant meaningless stat to prove Michels value.

I believe I have proven that the success rate stat has little to no value with my prior posts by showing that JAG running backs had better success percentages than MVP Hall of Fame Running back.

I did say that Michel has not shown the burst that he displayed at Georgia. I am hoping that if he goes back to his college weight he regains the quickness.

I am rooting for Michel, but I believe in calling it as I see it.

Years ago I made a post on this board calling Ron Brace a complete disgrace.

His first NFL play he got pushed back from nose tackle about 5 yards and ended up on his back. Worst 1 play performance I have ever seen by a DL.... They eventually had to try to move him to DE on his short lived career .

All the koolaid drinkers swooped in & defended Brace and his performance.

Who does Bill Belichick call the worst player he ever drafted.....

Drum roll please.......

Answer - Ron Brace

 

[Kasmir]

Success Rate is a marginally interesting stat in Football Outsiders' system. DYAR (production) and DVOA (production per play ) are their important stats.

The FO stats indicate that Chubb has been the 17th most productive (DYAR) runner, Michel the 25th, and Dion Lewis the 39th.

On a per play basis (DVOA), Chubb is ranked 20th, Michel 26th and Dion Lewis 39th.

That says Chubb has been an average starting back, Michel a below average starter, and Dion Lewis not even starting quality running from scrimmage this year.

Seems about right.

Only Dion Lewis has enough receiving stats in their system to be rated, where he's 20th ranked in productivity and 24 ranked in per play efficiency. By contrast White is 4th ranked in productivity and 10th ranked in efficiency.

Lewis was vastly better with last years Pats, where he was the most productive runner and the 2nd most efficient runner in FO's system. Keep in mind that FO's stats are team stats not individual, i.e. all the indicate is how the team did when the player rushed. But they are objective unlike PFW, in that there is no human scoring element in the analysis.