Thoughts on Sony Michel

[Ras-IR Dowling]

My god. The expectations of this fan base are absurd.

Hes gonna finish between 900-1000 yards rushing.

That is very good.

Not to mention the committee approach we tend to use with our backs.

 

[scott99]

The Jets are the 27th worst in run defense and the offense can’t stay on the field long enough to give them a rest. If that is the feather in Sony’s cap then we’re in more trouble than I thought.

You still have to break tackles. Read again what I wrote, HALF of his yards came AFTER contact. If you can’t understand what I’m saying, I can’t help you. I don’t give a crap what the Jets rush defensive ranking is, YARDS AFTER CONTACT ! That usually means you have some power. ************. Some people are unbelievable.

Go ahead, believe Sony sucks, believe he should’ve been a 5th round pick. I don’t give a ****. That’s you’re own ****ing problem, be negative about the best Pat’s rookie running back in 21 years.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I have no idea how your post is relevant to what you quoted.

Thank you

I was working off my phone & replied to the wrong post while watching TV.

Post has been removed.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

He had 3 for 105 against Oakland and 20 for 176 against Atlanta. He has no other 100 yard games this season and averages under 4 yards a carry in games other than those 2.

Yeah and if Barry Sanders did not have all those long runs, you could also say he wasn’t as good as Michel.

 

[primetime]

Yeah and if Barry Sanders did not have all those long runs, you could also say he wasn’t as good as Michel.

There's a random element to very long runs that isn't that useful to identifying good running backs, and per carry average is very sensitive to it. Two weeks ago I posted the stats, and while Chubb had two 50+ yard TD runs, he actually gained 5 or more yards (which is successful on any run other than a 3rd and 6 or longer) on a statistically significant lower percentage of runs than did Michel.

For an idea of what I mean, see Derrick Henry. Prior to his explosion last Thursday, his longest run was 16 yards and he was averaging 3.7 yards per carry and he had 5 TDs. By anyone's measure, he was having at the very best a completely mediocre year. Then last Thursday happened and now he's averaging an extremely healthy 4.8 yards per carry and has 9 TDs. The problem is that, yes, he had a historically dominant game. But he also had 12 games in which he was basically useless (and a 13th game against the Patriots in which he played well but mostly in garbage time). This isn't a good running back, but if you looked at his annual stat line you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

That's not to say Chubb has been bad or anything, and his development as a receiver is a very good sign for the Browns, especially considering he had stone hands in college. In fact, he's been very good and comparisons to Nick Chubb should not be considered lightly! But Michel's also not called upon as a receiver in the way Chubb has been because James White and Rex Burkhead (and Cordarelle Patterson and Rob Gronkowski) exist, so it's an unfair comparison. Michel was among the most prolific receiving backs in the nation in his college career so we know he can do it, and he's one of the better pass protectors in the rookie class.

 

[captain stone]

So if Michel isn't mostly to blame for the impotency of the running attack, then who or what is?

 

[cupofjoe1962]

There's a random element to very long runs that isn't that useful to identifying good running backs, and per carry average is very sensitive to it. Two weeks ago I posted the stats, and while Chubb had two 50+ yard TD runs, he actually gained 5 or more yards (which is successful on any run other than a 3rd and 6 or longer) on a statistically significant lower percentage of runs than did Michel.

For an idea of what I mean, see Derrick Henry. Prior to his explosion last Thursday, his longest run was 16 yards and he was averaging 3.7 yards per carry and he had 5 TDs. By anyone's measure, he was having at the very best a completely mediocre year. Then last Thursday happened and now he's averaging an extremely healthy 4.8 yards per carry and has 9 TDs. The problem is that, yes, he had a historically dominant game. But he also had 12 games in which he was basically useless (and a 13th game against the Patriots in which he played well but mostly in garbage time). This isn't a good running back, but if you looked at his annual stat line you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

That's not to say Chubb has been bad or anything, and his development as a receiver is a very good sign for the Browns, especially considering he had stone hands in college. In fact, he's been very good and comparisons to Nick Chubb should not be considered lightly! But Michel's also not called upon as a receiver in the way Chubb has been because James White and Rex Burkhead (and Cordarelle Patterson and Rob Gronkowski) exist, so it's an unfair comparison. Michel was among the most prolific receiving backs in the nation in his college career so we know he can do it, and he's one of the better pass protectors in the rookie class.

Chubb has the best yards after contact average 4.5 in the NFL this year.

Pro Football Focus has Barkley & Chubb rated
The 3rd and 5th highest rated rookie running backs since 2006.

Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb off to impressive starts in the NFL | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 72 Grade on Sony Michel in 2018 which is #26 in the NFL for running backs.

Sony Michel | New England Patriots HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 87.8 Grade on Nick Chubb that is #2 in the NFL for running backs.

Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

Please feel free to post a link from someone other than a pats fan forum koolaid drinker that has Michel performance rated better than Chubb’s this year.

Also Cleveland has a pretty good receiving back in Duke Johnson, but Chubb has still made a positive showing in the receiving game.

I am hoping Michel is better in his 2nd season.
Someone mentioned that if he dropped some weight he may get his burst back.

He was impressive in college, but I have not seen any of that burst he displayed against Alabama since he joined the Pats.

I am rooting for Michel, but I can’t ignore the fact that Chubb has clearly out performed him as a rookie.

 

[obgod3]

So if Michel isn't mostly to blame for the impotency of the running attack, then who or what is?

I would say the coaches and the team strategy as a whole....I said this already, but not once in the last maybe 10 or more years, maybe since 2000, has the Patriots been a run focused team. They just haven’t. When they have tried they failed, its just not their thing.

There might be an anomaly year here or there, Cory Dillion, but in general they have not been a run focused team like others. Other teams have because they had crap QB’s and had no choice.

Just look at the offensive line, they are drafted and paid to protect brady, they dont fit what I would call a run centric O Line. You could put Leveon Bell behind our O line and with the Pats type of play he wouldnt do very well.

 

[primetime]

Chubb has the best yards after contact average 4.5 in the NFL this year.

Pro Football Focus has Barkley & Chubb rated
The 3rd and 5th highest rated rookie running backs since 2006.

Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb off to impressive starts in the NFL | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 72 Grade on Sony Michel in 2018 which is #26 in the NFL for running backs.

Sony Michel | New England Patriots HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 87.8 Grade on Nick Chubb that is #2 in the NFL for running backs.

Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

Please feel free to post a link from someone other than a pats fan forum koolaid drinker that has Michel performance rated better than Chubb’s this year.

Also Cleveland has a pretty good receiving back in Duke Johnson, but Chubb has still made a positive showing in the receiving game.

I am hoping Michel is better in his 2nd season.
Someone mentioned that if he dropped some weight he may get his burst back.

He was impressive in college, but I have not seen any of that burst he displayed against Alabama since he joined the Pats.

I am rooting for Michel, but I can’t ignore the fact that Chubb has clearly out performed him as a rookie.

Pro Football Focus really isn't a good source of anything.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Pro Football Focus really isn't a good source of anything.

Really?

Then show me a better source that rates Michel 2018 performance better than Chubb’s.

Waiting......

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Chubb has the best yards after contact average 4.5 in the NFL this year.

Pro Football Focus has Barkley & Chubb rated
The 3rd and 5th highest rated rookie running backs since 2006.

Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb off to impressive starts in the NFL | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 72 Grade on Sony Michel in 2018 which is #26 in the NFL for running backs.

Sony Michel | New England Patriots HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

PFF has a 87.8 Grade on Nick Chubb that is #2 in the NFL for running backs.

Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns HB | NFL and PFF stats | Pro Football Focus

Please feel free to post a link from someone other than a pats fan forum koolaid drinker that has Michel performance rated better than Chubb’s this year.

Also Cleveland has a pretty good receiving back in Duke Johnson, but Chubb has still made a positive showing in the receiving game.

I am hoping Michel is better in his 2nd season.
Someone mentioned that if he dropped some weight he may get his burst back.

He was impressive in college, but I have not seen any of that burst he displayed against Alabama since he joined the Pats.

I am rooting for Michel, but I can’t ignore the fact that Chubb has clearly out performed him as a rookie.

Just an FYI prepare for some pushback for using PFF as your source.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Just an FYI prepare for some pushback for using PFF as your source.

Pushback from who?

The Koolaid drinkers?

I have yet to see a link from anyone from any media source that has Michels 2018 performance better than Chubb’s.

Instead I get ridiculous posts saying that if you take away Chubb’s best 2 games he is just ok or that Michels runs are more consistent.
I guess they would hate to have a guy like Barry Sanders who may lose yardage on 2 of 5 runs and then explode for a 65 yard score.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Rb’s are probably the easiest to find in the late rounds and udfa pool. Some rb’s that don’t time well will fall in the draft, but they can still run and follow blocks and pick up blitzes.

Terrell Davis, the kid we got from old miss. It’s all about scouting, heart and a little luck.

Surprised nobody has asked who Terrell Davis is? The only one I know that played in the NFL went to Long Beach State, then Georgia and then played for the Broncos.

Michel has been great; he's a clear bright spot on the offense and one reason for optimism that the Patriots do have some really solid young talent.

Saquan Barkley has been great. Michel has been good.

Even the playaction doesn't even involve faking a hand-off, it's some half-assed body shift from Brady.

Interesting you bring this up. The art of the playaction has been extinct for years. Peyton Manning in his early years was a master at this. Look at his early games and you'll see big play after big play to Marvin Harrison off the play fake. Favre was very good at this. Even Bledsoe also was pretty good at selling it. Brady also put more effort in his early years until the shift in 2007. Now he just does that shoulder shimmy no defender even pays attention to.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Pushback from who?

The Koolaid drinkers?

I have yet to see a link from anyone from any media source that has Michels 2018 performance better than Chubb’s.

Instead I get ridiculous posts saying that if you take away Chubb’s best 2 games he is just ok or that Michels runs are more consistent.
I guess they would hate to have a guy like Barry Sanders who may lose yardage on 2 of 5 runs and then explode for a 65 yard score.

Rushing Stats | NFL Next Gen Stats

This breaks it down into more detail for rushers. I’d also say Chubb has had the better season judging by yards and tds. He’s also faced 8 in the box on a more frequent basis (32 to 25%)

Also shows that the patriots may prefer a more north-south type of runner since it takes michel a half second less to cross the LOS than chubb. White’s numbers in this category are similar to Sony’s.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I would say the coaches and the team strategy as a whole....I said this already, but not once in the last maybe 10 or more years, maybe since 2000, has the Patriots been a run focused team. They just haven’t. When they have tried they failed, its just not their thing.

There might be an anomaly year here or there, Cory Dillion, but in general they have not been a run focused team like others. Other teams have because they had crap QB’s and had no choice.

Just look at the offensive line, they are drafted and paid to protect brady, they dont fit what I would call a run centric O Line. You could put Leveon Bell behind our O line and with the Pats type of play he wouldnt do very well.

I would say team strategy as well. However, I do think the Pats can run the ball well if they want to, but they get way too impatient and it started with Maroney. The pattern I've seen is that if the running back gets a measly gain, they get put on a timeout, replaced with someone else and Brady goes into the shotgun in an obvious pass play. In addition, their formations are set up for failure for a guy like Michel as most of the time it's in a tight formation trying to force him up the middle. The Pats need to mix it up with him more. Pass with him in shotgun, run in shotgun, play action pass under center, etc.

 

[203Pat]

You still have to break tackles. Read again what I wrote, HALF of his yards came AFTER contact. If you can’t understand what I’m saying, I can’t help you. I don’t give a crap what the Jets rush defensive ranking is, YARDS AFTER CONTACT ! That usually means you have some power. ************. Some people are unbelievable.

Go ahead, believe Sony sucks, believe he should’ve been a 5th round pick. I don’t give a ****. That’s you’re own ****ing problem, be negative about the best Pat’s rookie running back in 21 years.

Okay yes you’re right he’s Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson combined because he broke tackles against the Jets.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Really?

Then show me a better source that rates Michel 2018 performance better than Chubb’s.

Waiting......

RUNNING BACKS 2018 | Football Outsiders

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Okay yes you’re right he’s Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson combined because he broke tackles against the Jets.

What a dumb take. These are nfl players he’s going against. It’s one thing to break runs untouched (like bolden last week against our Swiss cheese defense). It’s another to break though contact for those extra yards.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

RUNNING BACKS 2018 | Football Outsiders

Paints a bad picture for those banging the drum that we should’ve resigned Dion Lewis.

Also thinking Derrick Henry’s stats are skewed due to his big game last week.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Let's make a deal. No more Sony Michel threads this season.
There is of course one possible exception if it happens:
"Sony Michel wins Super Bowl MVP"