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The study the Patriots can do to refute the scientific evidence


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tigerjohn

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If I were Kraft I would ask the Department Chair of the Engineering Department at MIT (or some other reputable university) to conduct a study on the possible outcomes based on the facts presented in the Wells report. The study would examine the implications for the assumptions made in the Wells report concerning temperature, storage conditions, measurements taken (including the fact that two different gauges were used) and develop a set of scenarios to determine the likelihood that the trajectory of Colts and Patriots balls PSI levels was impacted by something other than natural causes. The university would be responsible for selecting the team to run the experiment and would attempt to replicate conditions as exactly as possible (I would go so far as to have people throw and catch the ball with rain spray and wind as the temperature is adjusted to reflect changes over the course of the game). Results would be published without initial review by the Patriots.

The university would hopefully conduct the study without being paid directly, with Kraft instead donating the money towards scholarships or other research activities to ensure that those conducting the study do not directly benefit. The cost of the study relative to the annual research budget of an institution like MIT is so small that the perception of "delivering what the buyer wants" should be minimized.

My guess is the results would demonstrate that only natural forces were responsible for the PSI levels during the course of the game. This would do a few things: cast doubt on the integrity of the Wells report in general, make the "hijinks" explanation for the texts the NFL found as "less than candid" seem more plausible and help to support the small but growing sentiment that there was little foundation for any evidence of balls being deflated.

I don't think it will change the punishment for the team, even if the NFL were to accept the findings (they won't) as they can always lean on lack of candor and outright obstinance, but it might help Brady's appeal. The biggest gain would be to fight the perception of the Patriots as serial cheaters and rule breakers.
 
The funny thing is they don't have to refute any science. Exponent's numbers already refute the theory that balls were deflated. Wells had to go against Walt Andersen's best recollection and assume he used a different gauge just to get the balls outside of exactly where IGL predicted they would be with no tampering at all.
 
We are literally having all of this because the Patriots balls deflated about .4PSI on average more than the average of the 4 Colts balls measured at halftime. Absolutely no consideration that the Colts balls were measured last so had longer to warm or that as the visiting team, they may have filled their balls cold pregame and brought in from a colder truck. Who in their right mind actually things someone bothered to go in a john for 92 seconds and take an average of .4PSI out of 12 footballs. I would like to see these media players try and determine which ball was .4 PSI lower than the other. We had tons try with 2PSI.

Oh and 1 of the 4 Colts balls had an impossible measurement of only .05 decline which screws up the average anyway.
 
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From Kraft's statement: "as well as the dismissal of the scientific evidence supported by the Ideal Gas Law in the final report."

The Science part of the Wells report backs Brady and the Pats. The NFL are completely ignoring the Science.
 
Did the Wells Toilet Paper state what Walt's "recollection" was for the weight of the Colts footballs before the game?
 
It is not about science. The wells report does a good job of screwing themselves there. Its about brady not turning over his phone and pats not giving mcnally access for the 5th time.
 
I agree that all you need to refute the Wells report is the report itself but I think the response needs to come from someone other than the patriots, tweets, forum posts, youtube videos and befuddled sportwriters.
 
We are literally having all of this because the Patriots balls deflated about .4PSI on average more than the average of the 4 Colts balls measured at halftime. Absolutely no consideration that the Colts balls were measured last so had longer to warm or that as the visiting team, they may have filled their balls cold pregame and brought in from a colder truck. Who in their right mind actually things someone bothered to go in a john for 92 seconds and take an average of .4PSI out of 12 footballs. I would like to see these media players try and determine which ball was .4 PSI lower than the other. We had tons try with 2PSI.

Oh and 1 of the 4 Colts balls had an impossible measurement of only .05 decline which screws up the average anyway.

And as Deus has pointed out, the Patritots dominated time of possession in the last 5 minutes of the first half. Something like 4:38 minutes and the Colts the last 17 seconds.

And its criminal, just criminal Wells doesnt address the possibility of Colt footballs warming up as Patriot footballs were tested.

There is a reason the officials didnt have time to get to more than 4.. and thats because they saved them until last.
 
I agree that all you need to refute the Wells report is the report itself but I think the response needs to come from someone other than the patriots, tweets, forum posts, youtube videos and befuddled sportwriters.


There are tweets, forum posts, youtube videos, and sportswriters who back the Science up. There are even children's Science experiments.

All of that is still being ignored.
 
No science tests needed, here is the data from the Wells Report without any sort of "They don't know if they switched gauges so I'm taking the low end" "They don't know which gauge was initially used, so im taking the low end" "They don't know what the actual temp was, so im taking the low end" Cut out all of Well's Spin and you are left with the following:

Page 113 "According
to Exponent, based on the most likely pressure and temperature values for the Patriots game balls
on the day of the AFC Championship Game (i.e., a starting pressure of 12.5 psi, a starting
temperature of between 67 and 71 degrees and a final temperature of 48 degrees), the Ideal Gas
Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end
of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room. "

The actual measurements

Page 68
Ball 1: in range
Ball 2: out of range by .12
Ball 3: in range
Ball 4: out of range by .32
Ball 5: In range
Ball 6: In range
Ball 7: In range
Ball 8: in range
Ball 9: in range
Ball 10: out of range by .42
Ball 11: In range

This is in The NFL's own report feel free to check it out, of the 11 balls not messed with by the colts 8 of the footballs were within the range expected based on the conditions and the remaining 3 balls were out of the range by an average of .28psi nearly a quarter of a psi below the limit in 3 out of 11 balls.

If the patriots were letting Air out of balls, they were doing a really piss poor job if almost all of the balls were at the legal range and the ones that were out of the legal range were out by a fraction of a psi.
 
No science tests needed, here is the data from the Wells Report without any sort of "They don't know if they switched gauges so I'm taking the low end" "They don't know which gauge was initially used, so im taking the low end" "They don't know what the actual temp was, so im taking the low end" Cut out all of Well's Spin and you are left with the following:

Page 113 "According
to Exponent, based on the most likely pressure and temperature values for the Patriots game balls
on the day of the AFC Championship Game (i.e., a starting pressure of 12.5 psi, a starting
temperature of between 67 and 71 degrees and a final temperature of 48 degrees), the Ideal Gas
Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end
of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room. "

The actual measurements

Page 68
Ball 1: in range
Ball 2: out of range by .12
Ball 3: in range
Ball 4: out of range by .32
Ball 5: In range
Ball 6: In range
Ball 7: In range
Ball 8: in range
Ball 9: in range
Ball 10: out of range by .42
Ball 11: In range

This is in The NFL's own report feel free to check it out, of the 11 balls not messed with by the colts 8 of the footballs were within the range expected based on the conditions and the remaining 3 balls were out of the range by an average of .28psi nearly a quarter of a psi below the limit in 3 out of 11 balls.

If the patriots were letting Air out of balls, they were doing a really piss poor job if almost all of the balls were at the legal range and the ones that were out of the legal range were out by a fraction of a psi.

The NFL isn't going to listen the Patriots, this forum, or sportwriters. They probably won't listen a well respected institution in the field of engineering either. But other people might and it would damage the league credibility for the entire investigation and punishment. Right now, the mainstream media will only go as far as being confused by the report.
 
I am trying hard to get Mythbusters to do a segment on it. Please join in and tweet @donttrythis @MythBusters @JamieNoTweet

This would be this single best thing to get the real message to the public at large. Granted it would be later but it would explain it in a way the public outside of New England gets.

And it would terrify the NFL
 
The reality is high school students could do this. The science is not difficult.

One thing I would like to see is the effects of rain on a ball. Exponent's simulation for that was a joke. They used a spray bottle and then dried it off. That is not an accurate simulation. A ball is going to be out in the elements being rained on for much longer and it is going to land in the wet grass. The rain will have longer to soak in. And when you wipe it off, it is still being rained on.

The guy from Headsmart's simulation found that the water caused the ball to drop an additional 0.7 compared to Exponent's 0.2. I don't know how accurate the Headsmart simulation was, but there is clearly a larger range than what Exponent used in their calculations.
 
This issue is the single biggest problem I have with it. The science at worst says not sure but probably not at best it says nothing happened.
 
The biggest screwup in the Wells Report is they don't emphasize at all the fact that there were TWO gauges. Both uncalibrated, and one was reading OFF compared to the other by .4 PSI. That alone plus the Natural Gas Law could account for the difference of the PSI measurements. Not to mention depending on which gauge you used, 3 out of the 4 Colts balls ALSO came in as underinflated!!


To summarize, the NFL had two air pressure gauges available at the game. One had a Wilson logo on the back and a long, crooked needle. The other did not have a Wilson logo, and a shorter, straighter needle.

The gauge with the logo and the longer needle generated higher measurements of the Patriots footballs at halftime, ranging from 0.3 PSI to 0.45 PSI higher for each of the 11 footballs.


Source:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...best-recollection-on-a-key-piece-of-evidence/
 
I swear it's like non of you guys read the summary of the text messages. If you read them and say that this was a coincidence, well you have to be the biggest homer in the world, sorry. With that said, this should be a non-issue. Every other QB does this in the league. Rodgers basically come out and admitted it back in February. I'm sure other QB's have preferences as well. If anything, it was about what Brady likes, and not what would screw with the Colts. The Colts were thoroughly outplayed anyway. The punishment is too harsh.
 
I am trying hard to get Mythbusters to do a segment on it. Please join in and tweet @donttrythis @MythBusters @JamieNoTweet

This would be this single best thing to get the real message to the public at large. Granted it would be later but it would explain it in a way the public outside of New England gets.

And it would terrify the NFL
I'd love to see them replicate unzipping a bag, deflating 12 balls accurately and closing the bag in 90 seconds. My money says they can't do it, and the optics of attempting will show how absurd the whole theory is.
 
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I swear it's like non of you guys read the summary of the text messages. If you read them and say that this was a coincidence, well you have to be the biggest homer in the world, sorry. With that said, this should be a non-issue. Every other QB does this in the league. Rodgers basically come out and admitted it back in February. I'm sure other QB's have preferences as well. If anything, it was about what Brady likes, and not what would screw with the Colts. The Colts were thoroughly outplayed anyway. The punishment is too harsh.

Show me one text that suggests Brady wanted the balls deflated below the legal range.
 
Show me one text that suggests Brady wanted the balls deflated below the legal range.

No no, irrefutable science is all pure coincidence, the out of context text messages prove that! /s

How do people who believe this manage to get out of bed on a morning? It takes a special kind of stupid to think text messages trump hard scientific evidence doesn't it?
 
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