Patriots to lack young talent?

[BobDigital]

So lets talk about first round (some high second) and first picks overall.

2010-2013 - 10 - McCourty, Gronk, 11 - Solder, 12 - Jones, Hightower, 13 - Collins (52 but first pick).

Many of these players had a big impact on superbowl 49 and 51. (particularly Gronk in 14 and in both McCourty/Solder/Hightower). Also though we lost Jones/Collins at least we got value back.

Lets look at the top talent from 14' on. Easley - not here, 15' Brown - has been okay but not impactful, 16' Cyrus Jones - nope. 17' Rivers (83) we will see but probably won't be absolutely amazing.

Now of course top draft picks alone don't make a team but this is a concerning trend and makes me believe a talent drain may be coming if they aren't careful. They are not getting young cheap good players. Butler turned into a de facto first round pick in 14' but only on a 3 year deal. Cooks is worth the first but he is on a 2 year deal.

Flowers. Thuney, White, ect... show they have gotten solid players but the fact they have not hit on a probowl player in the draft in a while. If Brady stays and they trade JAG they will probably spend there first pick on a QB again not getting a top young player to help the team in the near future.

The cap going up and getting Butler/Cooks and smart cap management have hidden the fact they have not drafted any top tier players the last few years. I think the trend is potentially concerning. When the cap stabilizes in 2-3 years (maybe even goes down a tad) and we can not just sign or trade to fill out the roster with talent this could be an issue.

 

[captain stone]

Bill's first pick in 2 of the last 3 drafts (not including this one) has been a Fail, so far. That is indeed concerning.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

While it's certainly preferable to hit on the picks vs. missing on them, we've done a decent job of patching the holes or acquiring young talent via trade. I think we're still one of the youngest teams in the league if you discount Brady, who skews the statistic pretty heavily.

Interesting situation to monitor long term, though. Neat idea for a thread.

 

[BobDigital]

Yes the Pats have a young team but how much of the key talent is young?

Putting Brady aside you have...

Gronk/Edelman who are 2 of the 3 key offensive weapons and they are either older or have injury concerns. Solder/Cannon are closer to retirement than the start of their careers as well you'd think.

On defense McCourty/Chung are older. Hightower has injury history so though not old you need to be concerned about him and their best DL player is Branch who might be on his last year here.

They have young players of course who are good. On offense White/Cooks could be staples for years and the IOL is young though we still don't know how much we love it yet.

On D they don't really have that young staple player though besides Trey Flowers I think but we are not sure how good he will be.

 

[long distance]

Good idea BD . “wrong“ proposition. Hence the plain answer would be double no.
No, Pats don't lack young talent. No, missing on some draft picks is no reason for concern.

It is almost a consensus that this is one of the best football teams ever assembled.
Young talent is significant part of it.

Some thoughts:

1. While Pats have 10 players (5 starters) 30 or older, they added lots of young talent. Unlike other teams that mostly added young college prospects (NFL talent yet tbd) . Pats added NFL proven young talent in Gilmore, Cooks, Gillislee, two solid NFL talents in Guy and Ealy coming to prove themselves further and one bursting NFL talent (projected so by most) in Burkhead.

2. Let's look at starters (the tangible measure of NFL talent):
Offense: 2 over 30 -- 5 between 26-30 -- 4 age 25 or younger
Defense: 1 over 30 -- 2 age 30 -- 3-5 between 26-30 -- 3-5 age 25 or younger
That looks like very well balanced starting line-up to me.

You might argue that NFL starting position doesn't equal talent and that's ok. But any other definition of talent would be much more subjective hence not too useful for discussion.

f.e.: Most s.c. experts would probably disagree with your assessment of Brown. Its true that Branch was top DT in 2016 but Brown had another very solid season of his own . and bringing in a rookie who makes Wilfork dispensable in year 1 starting most games in 2 yrs is impactful enough for #32 pick IMO. Cyrus and Rivers shouldn't even be part of this discussion yet. (Note that I can see Brown as possible surprise trade this yr or next so I do have some reservations..)

Also . as Lombardi likes to say . BB doesn't allow discussion on talent in terms of rounds. Back in Cleveland they devised evaluation scheme that they still use at Foxboro . and they put draft prospects in 4 categories (IIRC): starters, potential starters, rotational/situational players, backups/ST players.

According to their own “talent“ scheme Pats were actually quite successful drafting in last years. If we take your proposed period (2014-2016; 2017 TBD), Pats drafted 4 starters, 5 rotational/situational players and 5 current backup players. Among last two groups at least half of them are potential starters in next 2 yrs.

3. Let's take a look who is behind impactful players that might be gone in the next couple of years (NFL being basically a 2yr contract league).

Brady -- Garoppolo (Pats have arguably best QB successor on their roster if needed)
Solder -- Garcia (Pats brought 5 young tackles for Dante to work with. It would be brave to bet against him and BB that they'll have a starting OT ready by the beginning of 2018)
Butler -- Gilmore (may look strange but Butler was/is considered #1CB so Gilmore in fact is his replacement even though they might play a year together; there's a healthy young competition for #2 and #3 spots in 2018)
Ninkovich -- Rivers (this is a projection of course but many analysts spoke very highly of him before and after draft; certainly comes in with more “prospect talent“ than Ninko did, and w similar work ethic)
Branch -- Valentine (Branch is signed through 2018; there will be new young blood coming by then as well)
Amendola - Cooks (both Jules and Cooks are signed for 2018; after that .. well it's a two years at a time league..)
Slater -- Ebner, JJ
Chung -- ? (arguably the only starting position by a 30y vet that doesn't have good enough backup unless Richards “pulls a White“ w 3rd yr jump; then again Chung is signed through 2018, still very much in his prime, plus some interesting young rookies were added so let's see..)

So to me this team looks set for the next 2 years as any NFL team can be. And since it's a 2yr league that's all you can really ask. Even most rookies look more and more like a 2yr things - 1yr adjustment - 2yrs playing - last year extension or trade. In this sense hitting on 1st rounders does have certain weight (5yr control) but as BB showed especially this year . there are many ways to build young talented roster..
__

BTW - i don't mind if Pats lack pro bowl talent . as long as they have super bowl talent

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Offensively we have to be set up better than any team.

Jimmy, Jacoby, IOL, Cooks, Mitchell and a few others are an excellent group to start with.