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jays52

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Before I start this post, I'd just like to say praise Odin. Without Him, none of this would be possible.

I'm too lazy to write an introduction, so let's jump right into the meat. The Broncos are not winning these games because of their offense. They are winning these games because of complimentary football. I don't think that's particularly surprising to anyone but tends to be overshadowed by Tebowmania. I have never seen so much hype around such a low scoring offense. It's really remarkable. However, it is effective and is moving the ball pretty well. It's the fun, entertaining story in this game so let's take a look at what the Denver offense is.

I hear a lot of people call this offense a zone-read offense. Yes, that is true. To an extent. I think that they are more of a power running team that utilizes formations to win with simple arithmetic. An offense is based around a fundamental set of concepts and balanced by constraint plays. Constraint plays such as screens, draws, ect... are designed to keep an opponent honest. Nothing new. Denver utilizes the option not as it's fundamental concept, but as it's constraint theory. Yes, the zone-read and it's derivations are a part of this, however they do run speed and triple options as well. That said, zone-read is the hyped one so let's explain that silly like thing.

The zone read option was born out of the zone or stetch play. I assume most here know what the zone run is, but for those that don't think about what Indy used to run where all the linemen would downblock and the back would pick a gap. After Shanahan's Denver offense showed how deadly this concept was, it eventually became a bread and butter play of the spread. It was quite effective until people started to realize that by aggressively crashing the unblocked backside end, the play would be blownup in the backfield. The standard fix for this was running the formation from a balanced 2-TE set, or from the I where a blocker could occupy this end. From the spread, there was no one to block this player and it was the simple fix. Out of necessity, offensive coaches at the college level realized that by giving the quarterback a read on this backside defensive end they could have an excellent counter to this defensive adjustment. Should the end aggressively crash down, the QB would keep the ball and skirt the defender. If the defender should stay home, hand it to the back. Hence, zone read option. The defenses eventually figured out that by stunting the backside end and tackle, they could confuse this read and create a foil. So, the offenses adjusted, made the read a defensive tackle, and the midline option was born.

Denver is utilizing motion to create gap shifts and confusion presnap in both their run game as well as their option game. They are also leveraging balanced sets to get declaration. When the team overcommits, they gash with the option, or a very simple one player read pass. Ah! The pass! Denver's ultimate constraint play! The Denver passing system looks like if The Jets offense was dumbed down even further. Very simple reads designed to pick away at certain parts of a defense. It's designed to keep the required scanning by the quarterback to a minimum. Slant levels, out and ups, and four verticals are all examples of the passing plays they use. The four verticals is their defeat of the cover-2 poorly coached teams have been employing.

So, how do you beat the Tebowmania offense? Simple, by countering a college offense with a college defense. I would employ a 44 front, tell my corners to ignore the run, and let my safety play centerfield to prevent a big play. I'm not worried about the pass beating me because the QB can't win a game passing. I'll force long progressions by jamming anything that moves with my peripheral box defenders, and Tebow's internal clock freaks after 3 seconds. I employ my two former college ends in Fletcher and Ninkovich as my outside linebackers. Not only do these guys have experience as end man on scrimmage, but are both create at keeping plays inside of them. I rotate Ellis and Deaderick at the end opposite Carter. I use my ends to force early decisions by the quarterback and kill the option before it develops. With my four dlinemen and four linebackers I have the ability to matchup on the man advantage the offense would have with 7 defenders and a running QB. Further, my balanced set can disguise the mike, negate gap advantages, and be immune to shifts. All functionally removing the main advantages and principals of the Denver game.

Finally, when I have a two score lead in the fourth quarter, I don't try to just get out of the game. Tebow is winning late because teams are committing to the pass. They are playing into his hand by doing this, often utilizing man coverages that place defenders with their backs to Tebow. I stay 44 until the game ends, dare Tebow to hit me with a consistent deep strikes, and play fundamentally sound football.

It's gonna be a fun game to watch!
 
I was ready to blast away at you of all people for starting yet another Tebow thread but instead I read an excellent defensive football analysis of how to defend the Tebows Sunday. I just hope whoever is playing safety has the situational awareness you require and is at least as fast as I am so he can execute on that stop the big play deep coverage.

Tebows Delenda Est!!!
 
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...So, how do you beat the Tebowmania offense? Simple, by countering a college offense with a college defense. I would employ a 44 front, tell my corners to ignore the run, and let my safety play centerfield to prevent a big play. I'm not worried about the pass beating me because the QB can't win a game passing. I'll force long progressions by jamming anything that moves with my peripheral box defenders, and Tebow's internal clock freaks after 3 seconds. I employ my two former college ends in Fletcher and Ninkovich as my outside linebackers. Not only do these guys have experience as end man on scrimmage, but are both create at keeping plays inside of them. I rotate Ellis and Deaderick at the end opposite Carter. I use my ends to force early decisions by the quarterback and kill the option before it develops. With my four dlinemen and four linebackers I have the ability to matchup on the man advantage the offense would have with 7 defenders and a running QB. Further, my balanced set can disguise the mike, negate gap advantages, and be immune to shifts. All functionally removing the main advantages and principals of the Denver game...

Here's where I think it's going to get interesting. The Patriots secondary can't cover worth a lick, and it's worse in man than in zone. What we're going to see on Sunday would seem to be either theoretical strength on strength (run v. run) or weakness on weakness (Tebow's passing early v. Patriots pass defense).

Either matchup has the potential to be won by either team, IMO. The big edge would seem to be Brady v. Broncos "D", if the tackles can stop the Broncos edge rushers.
 
nice breakdown jays52,

informative thanks, it sounds more like an Orange bowl than a Super bowl.
 
i dont really care. God forbid (pun intended) the NFL have a guy who is of high character and is actually doing well. The guy is a leader and his team is winning ball games in a most fastastic fashion. I love it. He is not shooting himself in the leg, or getting arrested at 2am. He is just playing hard football and is a really good role model for young kids. I hope the media keeps talking about him, because he is a good football player and a better person.
 
i dont really care. God forbid (pun intended) the NFL have a guy who is of high character and is actually doing well. The guy is a leader and his team is winning ball games in a most fastastic fashion. I love it. He is not shooting himself in the leg, or getting arrested at 2am. He is just playing hard football and is a really good role model for young kids. I hope the media keeps talking about him, because he is a good football player and a better person.

I find it hard to understand why people don't like Tebow. Works hard, good player, great teammate, humble (e.g., the monk haircut in preseason), great leader, respected by teammates, good character. I can see why people are annoyed with all the displays of religion he does, but mostly that's a function of the cameras always being on him. Lots of other guys do similar things but because they're not Tim Tebow, you don't see it. As far as I know, he's never asked for that kind of scrutiny, and whenever you see interviews of the guy, he's always deflecting the praise, either giving it to God or to his teammates.

-shrug-

In terms of the game, I think the Pats get up something like 24-10 in the 4th quarter. Tebow leads them down the field late to make it 24-17, Bronco fans are going bonkers, they kick to New England with just over 3 minutes to go, hoping to hold them to get the ball back for Tebow. But on 3rd and 6 from somewhere on the NE side of the field, with just over 2 minutes left, Brady hits Welker for 8 yards, giving the Pats 4 more downs, and they run out the clock.

And we all breathe a huge sigh of relief.
 
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Great post (10 char)
 
Here's where I think it's going to get interesting. The Patriots secondary can't cover worth a lick, and it's worse in man than in zone. What we're going to see on Sunday would seem to be either theoretical strength on strength (run v. run) or weakness on weakness (Tebow's passing early v. Patriots pass defense).

Either matchup has the potential to be won by either team, IMO. The big edge would seem to be Brady v. Broncos "D", if the tackles can stop the Broncos edge rushers.

Hey, check it out, we agree on something Tebow related! :D

I think the big offensive question in this game is the matchup between Solder and Dumervil/Miller. At 6'8, those shorter pass rushers could be problematic for him. I certainly think that he has the athleticism to matchup footwork wise, but I think they can beat him across the body. Should be an interesting offensive thread.
 
This thread was not meant to be a conversation about Tim Tebow the man. I would like it if it stayed to a discussion on the Denver offense and what a player with Tebow's attributes enable it to do.
 
Hey, check it out, we agree on something Tebow related! :D

I think the big offensive question in this game is the matchup between Solder and Dumervil/Miller. At 6'8, those shorter pass rushers could be problematic for him. I certainly think that he has the athleticism to matchup footwork wise, but I think they can beat him across the body. Should be an interesting offensive thread.

Will we see Cannon at OT? At first at least I think not, even less NFL experience. However should Solder struggle we'll either see Cannon at OT or Solder at blocking TE. We used to use this to help Light against the quick guys.

Whatever, the actually FOOTBALL strategy employed in this game will make for great post game analysis. I look forward to it.

Donks Delenda est
 
Will we see Cannon at OT? At first at least I think not, even less NFL experience. However should Solder struggle we'll either see Cannon at OT or Solder at blocking TE. We used to use this to help Light against the quick guys.

Whatever, the actually FOOTBALL strategy employed in this game will make for great post game analysis. I look forward to it.

Donks Delenda est

It is going to be an interesting post game talk for sure. I don't think that we'll often see Cannon used other than at guard, especially in this game. I think that he doesn't have the footwork required to matchup on the Denver peripheral players, and I feel that his best fit is at guard overall.

The TE chip concept is helpful for tackles going against guys who will beat them to the outside. 1) I think they'll use Gronk for that, and 2) I think Hernandez, even Welker could do that just fine as well. The thing with the chip is that it's just a minor contact that enables the tackle to catch up, and can be accomplished through virtually any offensive player. Backs will often chip on their release out of the backfield, for example. I'm not concerned with Light getting beat to the inside. Conversely, I think that Solder will win on the outside battles. Where I'm concerned is with the smaller players being able to get under him and across his body to the b gap. The two ways of stopping that is by putting in a slide in protection, or by keeping a back in to chip the defender that is able to scoot under the tackle. I think we see more use of the back in that situation.
 
Hey, check it out, we agree on something Tebow related! :D

I think the big offensive question in this game is the matchup between Solder and Dumervil/Miller. At 6'8, those shorter pass rushers could be problematic for him. I certainly think that he has the athleticism to matchup footwork wise, but I think they can beat him across the body. Should be an interesting offensive thread.

I expect the Patriots to keep the RB on Miller's side. People are talking about Miller's first step as if it's preternatural. If it works out that way, that's going to limit the initial burst of the RB as he checks/chips Miller, and it will also set up the one-on-one with Dumervil against the other tackle.
 
You know, a mobility QB always seem to be a big problem with the Patriots defense to contain. Knowing how much Tebow like to run, it will be a challenge for BB to come up with a plan to stop his running game to get first down on 3rd and long. It'll be interesting to see how BB is going to stop a quarterback that can throw and rushing like like a RB. I think this game is coming down to how the Patriots defense stopping Tebow from running like a wild chicken.
 
Nice job Jay. Here's my 2 cents

1. I worry less about the Dummerville/Solder matchup than I would have if I hadn't seen Solder have so much success against Cameron Wake, who is a very similar type of player. I'm sure it won't be perfect, but he will win a lot more of these battles in a big way.

2. With both their injured DBs expected back for this game, I expect the Broncos to play the Pats offense very aggressively, though Fox is not usually a Ryan type defensive coach. He will try to double/bracket Welker and Gronk, and hope the rest of the receivers can't beat them.

3. This will be an excellent game to throw the ball to the RBs and screens should be very successful

4.I won't be shocked to see 2-3 sacks of Brady, and the media will immediately make a big deal of it, but we will also see long periods of time where Brady will have all kinds of time

5. On defense I think Jay is correct. As a base defense on first downs we will see some kind of 8 man front with a zone defense behind it. Zone makes much more sense. DBs can reacted more quickly when the opponent runs. Tebow looks down his receivers and has a slow arm delivery so DBs will have more time to react than usual. Keeping the receivers in front of you will eliminate the kind of big play TD that gets you beat. And the fact that the Pats are better zone defenders than man defenders doesn't hurt either.

6. I do think the Pats CAN get more aggressive on 3rd and longs,
.
7. I don't expect a huge pass rush this game. The run is the first priority by a lot, and you don't want Tebow running around the edges, throwing the ball, where he actually tends to me more accurate.

8. If possible, when he does roll out, you want to make sure you force him to his right. Bootlegs to his left should be a major priority for the the right DE/OLB

9. When he runs, make sure you stick multiple hats on him

10, This will be a good game to actually win the special teams battle, not just play well.

11. Prediction - the first play the Bronco's will run from scrimmage with be a play action pass. Probably as bootleg with a short pass to the FB. Its an easy pass and designed to immediately get the Pats off balance.
 
You know, a mobility QB always seem to be a big problem with the Patriots defense to contain. Knowing how much Tebow like to run, it will be a challenge for BB to come up with a plan to stop his running game to get first down on 3rd and long. It'll be interesting to see how BB is going to stop a quarterback that can throw and rushing like like a RB. I think this game is coming down to how the Patriots defense stopping Tebow from running like a wild chicken.

Let's hope he lays an egg...:bricks:
 
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Before I start this post, I'd just like to say praise Odin. Without Him, none of this would be possible.

I'm too lazy to write an introduction, so let's jump right into the meat. The Broncos are not winning these games because of their offense. They are winning these games because of complimentary football. I don't think that's particularly surprising to anyone but tends to be overshadowed by Tebowmania. I have never seen so much hype around such a low scoring offense. It's really remarkable. However, it is effective and is moving the ball pretty well. It's the fun, entertaining story in this game so let's take a look at what the Denver offense is.

I hear a lot of people call this offense a zone-read offense. Yes, that is true. To an extent. I think that they are more of a power running team that utilizes formations to win with simple arithmetic. An offense is based around a fundamental set of concepts and balanced by constraint plays. Constraint plays such as screens, draws, ect... are designed to keep an opponent honest. Nothing new. Denver utilizes the option not as it's fundamental concept, but as it's constraint theory. Yes, the zone-read and it's derivations are a part of this, however they do run speed and triple options as well. That said, zone-read is the hyped one so let's explain that silly like thing.

The zone read option was born out of the zone or stetch play. I assume most here know what the zone run is, but for those that don't think about what Indy used to run where all the linemen would downblock and the back would pick a gap. After Shanahan's Denver offense showed how deadly this concept was, it eventually became a bread and butter play of the spread. It was quite effective until people started to realize that by aggressively crashing the unblocked backside end, the play would be blownup in the backfield. The standard fix for this was running the formation from a balanced 2-TE set, or from the I where a blocker could occupy this end. From the spread, there was no one to block this player and it was the simple fix. Out of necessity, offensive coaches at the college level realized that by giving the quarterback a read on this backside defensive end they could have an excellent counter to this defensive adjustment. Should the end aggressively crash down, the QB would keep the ball and skirt the defender. If the defender should stay home, hand it to the back. Hence, zone read option. The defenses eventually figured out that by stunting the backside end and tackle, they could confuse this read and create a foil. So, the offenses adjusted, made the read a defensive tackle, and the midline option was born.

Denver is utilizing motion to create gap shifts and confusion presnap in both their run game as well as their option game. They are also leveraging balanced sets to get declaration. When the team overcommits, they gash with the option, or a very simple one player read pass. Ah! The pass! Denver's ultimate constraint play! The Denver passing system looks like if The Jets offense was dumbed down even further. Very simple reads designed to pick away at certain parts of a defense. It's designed to keep the required scanning by the quarterback to a minimum. Slant levels, out and ups, and four verticals are all examples of the passing plays they use. The four verticals is their defeat of the cover-2 poorly coached teams have been employing.

So, how do you beat the Tebowmania offense? Simple, by countering a college offense with a college defense. I would employ a 44 front, tell my corners to ignore the run, and let my safety play centerfield to prevent a big play. I'm not worried about the pass beating me because the QB can't win a game passing. I'll force long progressions by jamming anything that moves with my peripheral box defenders, and Tebow's internal clock freaks after 3 seconds. I employ my two former college ends in Fletcher and Ninkovich as my outside linebackers. Not only do these guys have experience as end man on scrimmage, but are both create at keeping plays inside of them. I rotate Ellis and Deaderick at the end opposite Carter. I use my ends to force early decisions by the quarterback and kill the option before it develops. With my four dlinemen and four linebackers I have the ability to matchup on the man advantage the offense would have with 7 defenders and a running QB. Further, my balanced set can disguise the mike, negate gap advantages, and be immune to shifts. All functionally removing the main advantages and principals of the Denver game.

Finally, when I have a two score lead in the fourth quarter, I don't try to just get out of the game. Tebow is winning late because teams are committing to the pass. They are playing into his hand by doing this, often utilizing man coverages that place defenders with their backs to Tebow. I stay 44 until the game ends, dare Tebow to hit me with a consistent deep strikes, and play fundamentally sound football.

It's gonna be a fun game to watch!

Good stuff!

The question's gonna be can they stop the run with the 44?

Perhaps.

Then the next question is can NE's shaky secondary stop Tebow's inconsistent passing.

Again, perhaps.

This is all going to boil down to whether Denver can limit NE to under 24 pts.

If that happens, Broncos win.
 
Good stuff!

The question's gonna be can they stop the run with the 44?

Perhaps.

Then the next question is can NE's shaky secondary stop Tebow's inconsistent passing.

Again, perhaps.

This is all going to boil down to whether Denver can limit NE to under 24 pts.

If that happens, Broncos win.

Regarding the bold.....

Thomas is slowly becoming the player that McDaniels thought he would. If he's out there one-on-one against the Patriots defenders, that's a huge advantage to the Broncos.
 
Denver didn't get here by Tebow alone. Their defense has done a great job of keeping the score close and that's the only reason Tebow has had the opportunity to make the end of game heroics. Our offense is better than any they've seen since the Packers in week 4 and unless we see a repeat of the problems of last week I'm pretty confident we can put points on the board. The key for us will be getting our offense on the field which is the real problem with our defense, they don't stop an opposing team until they're in the red zone. If the Broncos offense can eat up big chunks of clock in the middle of the field it puts us at a big disadvantage. Tebow could be their best defense, his style of offense chews up time and keeping our offense on the bench will be their best strategy to keep the score close.
 
David Givens was the best chip blocker they ever had. It was amazing how quickly he could hit an end almost as if it was part of his pattern and then he was off and very fluid about it. Faulk is really good as well.

Although I agree with most of the premise I think the one problem with using the 4-4 front is Denver often goes with a one back, one TE and 3 receiver set. You can't man up on all three receivers because you don't have the personnel to do so. If you play cover 3 even Teblow is going to hit the receivers and he does decent against soft zones. By using the three wides the Broncos spread you out and having two running options they fracture gap discipline. I'm sure the Pats have been drilling that all week long.

If they deploy a 4-4 or another jumbo package as you suspect it will be interesting to see if Fletcher or Koutouvides playing the Don Davis hybrid safety role.

The secondary in this scenario I think they go with the corners in Aarington,
 
Nice thread Jays.
 
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