NE/SD Points for & against analysis

[bradmahn]

The Chargers ran for 99 yards against the Colts (LT had a very middle of the road 4 ypc before he got hurt, as well as a fumble), or 7.6 yards below the Colts season average for rushing yards allowed (and 28.4 yards fewer than SD's per game average). Conversely, the Patriots ran for 145 yards against a Jaguars' defense that allows 100.3 yards per game (and 29.4 yards per game more than the Patriots' season average).

One team greatly exceeded their season averages and did better against harder competition. The other? Eh, not so much.

And the Patriots held the best running team in the AFC to nearly 70 yards below their season average. The Chargers held Addai to his end-of-the-season-average (and holding any team to under fifty yards rushing is very good, but since playing the Patriots, the Colts rushing game has averaged 75.6 ypg while being held under that average six of eight times).

Running the ball (and stopping the run) is going to be a strength for which team in this game?

 

[MiChargers]

focus on this:
best rb in football: 18 carries for 43 yds + 0 td = 18/43(lol)/0 (< 3 ypc)
maroney 15 for 77 + morris 10 for 51 and a td = 25/128/1 (> 5 ypc)

see if you can figure out which is better
lolz

wait....here's an extra credit:

taylor: 13 carries for 47 yds + mojo's 6/19 = 19/66/0 (~3.5 ypc)
maroney 22 for 122 and a td = 22/122/1 (~5.5 ypc)

:bricks:


j

go back to mowing lawns and leave the football to the football fans.

I'll repeat this again and maybe you can understand. To take the stats from ONE GAME and use that as ammunition to support your team has a "better running game" is beyond absurd. It wasnt a comparison of when these two teams last played each other. For the fifth time, it was who has the "better running game." I would point out that you obviously have a very limited perspective on football, but you clearly pointed that out in your own post. You should be embarrased for yourself.

 

[MiChargers]

The Chargers ran for 99 yards against the Colts (LT had a very middle of the road 4 ypc before he got hurt, as well as a fumble), or 7.6 yards below the Colts season average for rushing yards allowed (and 28.4 yards fewer than SD's per game average). Conversely, the Patriots ran for 145 yards against a Jaguars' defense that allows 100.3 yards per game (and 29.4 yards per game more than the Patriots' season average).

One team greatly exceeded their season averages and did better against harder competition. The other? Eh, not so much.

And the Patriots held the best running team in the AFC to nearly 70 yards below their season average. The Chargers held Addai to his end-of-the-season-average (and holding any team to under fifty yards rushing is very good, but since playing the Patriots, the Colts rushing game has averaged 75.6 ypg while being held under that average six of eight times).

Running the ball (and stopping the run) is going to be a strength for which team in this game?

Chargers. We're ranked 7th in the league in rushing...NE was 13th. LT has the rushing title yet again....Maroney wasnt even on the radar. Do I need to draw a picture? Guys, is it possible for you to concede even ONE point in SD's favor? Seriously, how are you trying to make this arguement. I guess NE was ranked #1 in every aspect of the game on both sides of the ball.

 

[eom]

we'll see after the game who's embarrassed.

don't disappear on us.

we might not be ranked #1 in EVERY aspect of the game, but we're certainly better than the f'ing chargers.

 

[Oswlek]

Chargers. We're ranked 7th in the league in rushing...NE was 13th. LT has the rushing title yet again....Maroney wasnt even on the radar. Do I need to draw a picture? Guys, is it possible for you to concede even ONE point in SD's favor? Seriously, how are you trying to make this arguement. I guess NE was ranked #1 in every aspect of the game on both sides of the ball.

What does the rushing title have anything to do with anything? Or, more particularly, Maroney's ranking?

More than one player per game runs the ball. I have no issue with saying that SD runs it better than NE does, but it isn't a significant advantage by any means.

 

[patfanken]

Nice Job Owl, I don't have the patience for that kind of numerical analysis, but I sure enjoy the fruits of OTHER people's labors.

Idon't know if this has been mentioned, because I don't have time to go through 3 pages of comments, but the Pats played 2 games in very inhospitiable weather vs the Jets and Ravens. Did the Charger have any games that could have effected their offensive productivity? Probably not, so the figures would be skewed somewhat.

 

[MiChargers]

we'll see after the game who's embarrassed.

don't disappear on us.

we might not be ranked #1 in EVERY aspect of the game, but we're certainly better than the f'ing chargers.

As you can see, EOM. Ive been on this forum longer than alot of your fans, so I wont be disappearing.
Im not going to argue who the better team is. You wont hear me say NE is though. But at least I can recognize that you have a superior coach, QB, receivers, etc. We have a better running game, TE, and special teams. Is it really that hard to acknowledge another team has an advantage over you in a particular area? The Pats are really good, but they're not perfect.

 

[MiChargers]

What does the rushing title have anything to do with anything? Or, more particularly, Maroney's ranking?

More than one player per game runs the ball. I have no issue with saying that SD runs it better than NE does, but it isn't a significant advantage by any means.

You're right, a single player doesnt make the team's game. Just like performance in a single game doesnt mean a team runs better than the other, as others were trying to say. And that's the lunacy I was battling.

 

[eom]

yeah, it's hard to acknowledge it when it's fantasy -- come back when you've actually got a valid point.

what's this say, right here? >>>> According to football outsiders the Rushing attack of the Pats is #1 and San Diego #11.

maybe you thought 11 is twice as good as 1, but that first # is actually ELEVEN.
when that beats #1, I'll acknowledge all your leprechauns and unicorns.

 

[MiChargers]

yeah, it's hard to acknowledge it when it's fantasy -- come back when you've actually got a valid point.

what's this say, right here? >>>> According to football outsiders the Rushing attack of the Pats is #1 and San Diego #11.

maybe you thought 11 is twice as good as 1, but that first # is actually ELEVEN.
when that beats #1, I'll acknowledge all your leprechauns and unicorns.

Where's the link. Im going to go out on a limb and say that your FO's DVOA ranking is based exclusively on the postseason.

 

[bradmahn]

Where's the link. Im going to go out on a limb and say that your FO's DVOA ranking is based exclusively on the postseason.

Then you'd be wrong.

And here's the link.

 

[PatriotsReign]

According to football outsiders the Rushing attack of the Pats is #1 and San Diego #11. That leaves out the question as to how healthy is LT also. Patriots have a very good running game.

IF the wind is so bad neither team can throw at all then it favors the Chargers only because both teams will stop the run and the game is a toss up. Outside of that the Pats will win this game. So in the argument IF both teams can't throw then both teams running games will suck as the defense will play everyone to stop the run. On a normal day with normal weathe the Pats run offense is better than San Diegos, they have the best offense of all-time, people think it's solely because of the pass but its not.

This is THE best post of this thread & no one cared to comment upon it? C'mon people, let's get with the program. Football Outsiders is pretty highly recognized. Not as much so as CHF, but it's up there.

 

[GameDay]

Do you treat all points with equal probability?
Many points are scored by offense on long drive
Many points are scored by offense on short drive from TO and downs
Some points are scored by pick 6 or fumble return
Some points are scored by special teams (KO or punt return)

Same for points allowed.

They occur with different probabilities, how do you handle them? Just curious.

 

[Oswlek]

Do you treat all points with equal probability?
Many points are scored by offense on long drive
Many points are scored by offense on short drive from TO and downs
Some points are scored by pick 6 or fumble return
Some points are scored by special teams (KO or punt return)

Same for points allowed.

They occur with different probabilities, how do you handle them? Just curious.

All points are treated equally. I don't bother differentiating between defensive and offensive and special teams because, frankly, if a team scores on STs the points still count. I'm not ranking offenses and defenses, I ranking TEAMS. If a team's defense is good enough to both hold points down *and* score too, they should get credit for it.

Over the course of the entire season, this is a non-issue because of a large enough sample size. However, I am more than willing to admit that NE essentially giving up against Miami in the second half when they certainly would have put up another 21 if they really needed to affects these numbers. Obviously a solid case could be made that NE played a terribly basic scheme down the stretch and that contributed to possibly 3-4 of their wins, while SD would only have one or two games like that. Of course on a 7 or 8 game sample 2-3 games is a significant factor. I have no issues if anyone starts poking holes from that direction.

But, again, SD is not the same team that they werer earlier this year. Even if NE is really the team that they were earlier, full season averages aren't going to be indicative of anything.

I personally find it amazing how close NE's worst 7 game run grades out with SD's best. Most good teams' worst 7 game run would grade out as +2 or 3 tops. Looking at all teams, the majority of them would be negative over their worst 7 game run.

 

[swuster]

I would expect the running games to be near equal. The Pats' O-line is simply spectacular, and IMO superior to SD's, while we have a better RB. In the end I think it comes down to SD's pass rush/defense against Brady's attack. And since we've seen how insane Brady can be when it comes to placing his passes our enture defense will really need to step it up.

While it's still important to try and think about what happens when SD has the ball, we will be a ble to put up a few points. Enough to win? Maybe, if the defense can pull off the game of the year.

 

[eom]

This is THE best post of this thread & no one cared to comment upon it? C'mon people, let's get with the program. Football Outsiders is pretty highly recognized. Not as much so as CHF, but it's up there.

uh....I pointed it out, that guy ^^^ up there linked it, and michargers disappeared when he read it.
it was like sunlight to a vampire.

 

[Satchboogie3]

The Bolts played the Chiefs, Lions, titans, Broncos, and Raiders as their last 5. Those are aweful teams (Ok, the titans are OK at best).

The most important factor, though, is that down the stretch, the teams we faced were playing their Superbowl, playing as hard as possible to be the team to beat the Pats.

The Chargers rolled through some ****ty teams that had nothing to play for. I think that makes ALL the difference.