Oswlek
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2006
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Now that my schtick has been largely rendered useless by CHFF's "relativity score", I decided to change this year's analysis up a little bit. I am going to grade out each team since week 12 of the regular season. Why? Because SD's winning streak and NE's first tight game - along with the season ending drop in winning margin - both happened to begin at this time. The other reason to not even bother with the entire season figures is because it should be perfectly obvious to all that NE would grade out with a huge advantage.
For those that aren't familiar with this type of analysis, I go into detail on the mechanics in the original edition found here.
Alright, here we go
SD
PF - 28.5 vs. 22.1 ~ +6.4
PA - 13.1 vs. 19.5 ~ +6.4
Total score ~ 12.8
NE
PF - 29.4 vs. 21.4 ~ +8
PA - 19.6 vs. 20.7 ~ +1.1
Total score ~ 9.1
To my surprise, the Chargers do grade out as a better team than NE over the final six games and into the playoffs. Obviously it needs to be taken into consideration that we are comparing NE's worst stretch of games with SD's best, but it is still noteworthy and contributes to my thinking that this game is going to go against NE's prior trend of improved play when facing a team for a second time. I doubt very much that this game is over at halftime like the first one.
I also looked at the home/road split within these numbers.
SD on the road
PF - 26.3 vs. 20.2 ~ +6.1
PA - 17 vs. 19.7 ~ +2.7
Total score ~ 8.8
NE at home
PF - 28.2 vs. 20.8 ~ +7.4
PA - 15.6 vs. 21 ~ +5.4
Total score ~ 12.8
While both SD's and NE's offenses grade out similarly whether on the road or at home, you can see a sizable dropoff on SD's defense and a corresponding improvement to NE's D. Again, this is during SD's best and NE's worst. Not a good trend at all for SD, even without their injuries and NE having a recent week off.
Other notes and considerations
Since I am not doing a full season run, sample size proves to be an issue. For example, SD's demolition of Detroit accounts for a whopping 38% of their positive offensive score! Excluding that game, SD's offensive score would drop from +6.4 to +4, essentially closing the gap between the first set of scores above. While the same thing is true for NE, they didn't have a single game that they outperformed the opposing averages by that much. The biggest one was the Giants game, where they scored 38 points on a defense that allowed 21.9 on the season. Excluding that game, NE's offensive score drops from +8 to +6.7, or 16%. Not only is it a lesser drop, but NE played one less game, which should actually increase the likelihood of one single number affecting the total. NE has clearly been the more consistent team over that stretch.
Another thing to take not of for the defense worriers (of which I am a fence sitter) is that, other than the Philly game, NE's defense has held every team below their season average by a wide margin at home. Now, I take the position that NE's offense is a primary reason for this, both by eating up clock and by forcing other teams out of their comfort zone. But it still should be noted.
I have further thoughts on this game, particularly SD's defense in the playoffs, which I think despite grading out positively, has actually been quite poor, but I will post them in a later thread in order to avoid having too much in one thread.
For those that aren't familiar with this type of analysis, I go into detail on the mechanics in the original edition found here.
Alright, here we go
SD
PF - 28.5 vs. 22.1 ~ +6.4
PA - 13.1 vs. 19.5 ~ +6.4
Total score ~ 12.8
NE
PF - 29.4 vs. 21.4 ~ +8
PA - 19.6 vs. 20.7 ~ +1.1
Total score ~ 9.1
To my surprise, the Chargers do grade out as a better team than NE over the final six games and into the playoffs. Obviously it needs to be taken into consideration that we are comparing NE's worst stretch of games with SD's best, but it is still noteworthy and contributes to my thinking that this game is going to go against NE's prior trend of improved play when facing a team for a second time. I doubt very much that this game is over at halftime like the first one.
I also looked at the home/road split within these numbers.
SD on the road
PF - 26.3 vs. 20.2 ~ +6.1
PA - 17 vs. 19.7 ~ +2.7
Total score ~ 8.8
NE at home
PF - 28.2 vs. 20.8 ~ +7.4
PA - 15.6 vs. 21 ~ +5.4
Total score ~ 12.8
While both SD's and NE's offenses grade out similarly whether on the road or at home, you can see a sizable dropoff on SD's defense and a corresponding improvement to NE's D. Again, this is during SD's best and NE's worst. Not a good trend at all for SD, even without their injuries and NE having a recent week off.
Other notes and considerations
Since I am not doing a full season run, sample size proves to be an issue. For example, SD's demolition of Detroit accounts for a whopping 38% of their positive offensive score! Excluding that game, SD's offensive score would drop from +6.4 to +4, essentially closing the gap between the first set of scores above. While the same thing is true for NE, they didn't have a single game that they outperformed the opposing averages by that much. The biggest one was the Giants game, where they scored 38 points on a defense that allowed 21.9 on the season. Excluding that game, NE's offensive score drops from +8 to +6.7, or 16%. Not only is it a lesser drop, but NE played one less game, which should actually increase the likelihood of one single number affecting the total. NE has clearly been the more consistent team over that stretch.
Another thing to take not of for the defense worriers (of which I am a fence sitter) is that, other than the Philly game, NE's defense has held every team below their season average by a wide margin at home. Now, I take the position that NE's offense is a primary reason for this, both by eating up clock and by forcing other teams out of their comfort zone. But it still should be noted.
I have further thoughts on this game, particularly SD's defense in the playoffs, which I think despite grading out positively, has actually been quite poor, but I will post them in a later thread in order to avoid having too much in one thread.
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