Jerod Mayo at AFC Coaches Breakfast

[patfanken]

"But the point is, there WILL be a guy there at #3 who will be worthy of the pick at the most important offensive position on the team"

I do not think you know this,

Of course I don't KNOW! I've said it over and over in my posts. As you said you CANNOT know and just based on history at least one of these might bust. ALL you can do is try to minimize your risk and hope you are lucky. But like I said, it is rare when there are 3 (and some are now saying 4) QB's who are WORTHY of the pick.

That said, if no munificent offer is made, as you (and frankly I) suspect, I would have no qualms about taking either Maye or Daniels. I would probably prefer Maye, but I wouldn't squawk if it ends up being Daniels.

The thing is T, that regardless of who you pick at #3 there ARE going to be "qualms". And kudos on using "munificent". A greatly underused descriptor. BTW- Would the offer of #11, #23 and a 1st in 2025 be munificent enough for you?

I also think that any desperation to "get our guy"this year is at least somewhat mitigated by the fact we are very likely to have a dismal record again next year, probably not dismal enough to score a third pick, but high enough to pick up some sort of reasonable qb prospect. Las Vegas has us slotted to have the worst record in the NFL, which translates (to overextend the argument, I admit!) to gaining the first pick.

Yes it is "likely" that this is going to be a hard rebuilding year. A year full of angst and anger (at least on this board, from the "I want want it, and I want it NOW!" crowd). But I don't give a **** about what ESPN or betting sites "project". Consider this. I have long held the belief that EVERY player that winds up on a 53man roster is a FANTASTIC football player. Think about the path they had to take. They had to be in the top 5-10% of the millions of HS football players to get a scholarship to a division 1 school. THEN the had to develop into the top 5% who get drafted from the 100,000 odd pool of college players. So. make no mistake about it, the LAST guy at the end of the bench is one hell of a football player.

Now this doesn't mean all players are equal at what they do, but for a VAST majority of NFL players, I bet, cannot be separated by much. THEN you get, say, the top 10% of players who ARE better. But just how MUCH better are they. How much do things like TO's play into things and some of them are a product of "good bounces"......or bad. When you think about it, the 2021 team was VERY good at getting TO's and that was a 10 win playoff team. The 2023 team LOST the TO margin in WAY too many games and their record reflected that. Good coaching and leadership matter more in football than any other team sport. If talented rosters determined games, then that 2001 team will have give back their rings

At any rate, what I'm trying to say is that Pats fans are going to be represented by 53 REALLY good football players. And from all the years I played and coached, one of the things I love about football, is that more than ANY other team sport, the team with the best personnel doesn't win a lot of the time. WHY is that you might ask, and the answer is that the talent gap between ANY NFL team is never that large. "on any given Sunday" is built on reality, and why there has only been ONE team in NFL history that has gone a season without a win.

So the talent necessary to BE in games will be there. How many they end up winning will depend on many things like TO's good game plans, good bounces and good calls. They CANNOT be determined by just looking at the roster and saying, "well they are better at QB, WR, LG", or all the thing we used to do when we discussed upcoming games. Jet fans used to do that a lot when I was a regular at their site.

 

[maust]

The ONLY team that has a shot at getting us off that pick and that's the Vikings.

I would submit that the Cards and Chargers both have a better shot at 'getting us off that pick.' Particularly if the Cards view MHJ as a true generational talent, they'll want to prevent LAC from getting ahead of them. The Cards also have the draft capital to make it relatively painless for them to swap their 4th pick for our 3rd and freeze out the Chargers

 

[Thelonious]

Of course I don't KNOW! I've said it over and over in my posts. As you said you CANNOT know and just based on history at least one of these might bust. ALL you can do is try to minimize your risk and hope you are lucky. But like I said, it is rare when there are 3 (and some are now saying 4) QB's who are WORTHY of the pick.


The thing is T, that regardless of who you pick at #3 there ARE going to be "qualms". And kudos on using "munificent". A greatly underused descriptor. BTW- Would the offer of #11, #23 and a 1st in 2025 be munificent enough for you?

Yes it is "likely" that this is going to be a hard rebuilding year. A year full of angst and anger (at least on this board, from the "I want want it, and I want it NOW!" crowd). But I don't give a **** about what ESPN or betting sites "project". Consider this. I have long held the belief that EVERY player that winds up on a 53man roster is a FANTASTIC football player. Think about the path they had to take. They had to be in the top 5-10% of the millions of HS football players to get a scholarship to a division 1 school. THEN the had to develop into the top 5% who get drafted from the 100,000 odd pool of college players. So. make no mistake about it, the LAST guy at the end of the bench is one hell of a football player.

Now this doesn't mean all players are equal at what they do, but for a VAST majority of NFL players, I bet, cannot be separated by much. THEN you get, say, the top 10% of players who ARE better. But just how MUCH better are they. How much do things like TO's play into things and some of them are a product of "good bounces"......or bad. When you think about it, the 2021 team was VERY good at getting TO's and that was a 10 win playoff team. The 2023 team LOST the TO margin in WAY too many games and their record reflected that. Good coaching and leadership matter more in football than any other team sport. If talented rosters determined games, then that 2001 team will have give back their rings

At any rate, what I'm trying to say is that Pats fans are going to be represented by 53 REALLY good football players. And from all the years I played and coached, one of the things I love about football, is that more than ANY other team sport, the team with the best personnel doesn't win a lot of the time. WHY is that you might ask, and the answer is that the talent gap between ANY NFL team is never that large. "on any given Sunday" is built on reality, and why there has only been ONE team in NFL history that has gone a season without a win.

So the talent necessary to BE in games will be there. How many they end up winning will depend on many things like TO's good game plans, good bounces and good calls. They CANNOT be determined by just looking at the roster and saying, "well they are better at QB, WR, LG", or all the thing we used to do when we discussed upcoming games. Jet fans used to do that a lot when I was a regular at their site.

Such linguistic largess! You might have stopped at "Of course I don't know." Given that, how in the everlivin' world can it be controversial that I advocate awaiting the offers before deciding to reject them? Sports talk is not renowned for rational discourse, but discussion of this matter sets new standards for irrationality and pointlessness.

 

[Ross12]

I would submit that the Cards and Chargers both have a better shot at 'getting us off that pick.' Particularly if the Cards view MHJ as a true generational talent, they'll want to prevent LAC from getting ahead of them. The Cards also have the draft capital to make it relatively painless for them to swap their 4th pick for our 3rd and freeze out the Chargers

Yeah, we're all closely watching teams jockeying for the QBs, but there may also be jockeying happening for MHJ. It depends on how bad the Chargers want him. They cut or traded away most of their WR room, so you have to imagine they want him pretty bad, and a trade up from 5 to 3 probably isn't that expensive - a 3rd rounder and maybe a 4th rounder probably gets that done. Of course, Arizona may want to block that by moving up themselves 1 slot.

We all have googly eyes over the idea of getting multiple firsts by moving down to 11 or something, but the idea of going down 1 spot and picking up a 3rd, or two spots for a 3rd & 4th is not bad either. And you'll know that the team taking your spot at 3 is not going to take a QB, so whatever guy you want will still be there when you pick. But you'll pick up a 3rd, and that's a meaty round this year. More picks in the top 3 rounds is valuable this year.

 

[Thelonious]

Oh sure, I'm not actually against trading down. If Minnesota comes to us with a "can't refuse" package, like 11, 23, a 1st next year and Justin Jefferson, I'm running that paperwork to the league office before the Vikings GM comes down from his Ayhuasca trip. Or, if the Pats aren't really sold on the QBs that are left at 3, I don't want them taking one just to take one. I just don't want them to trade down for more picks simply on the basis that taking a QB is a risk, because it would be a risk (and likely a worse one) the further back you decide to roll those dice.

Long winded answer to a short one: If you believe in the guy, take him, and if you're wrong that's just life in the QB carousel. If you don't believe in the guy, trade down or take someone at another position that you DO believe in. But don't pick scared.

I think we essentially agree. I am just struck that so many here are so desperate that we reject any and all offers for the pick before finding out what those offers are. Good gracious.

 

[Thelonious]

I get that, but we can't use Tom Brady as an example of anything. He's 1 of 1, and as cool as the Brock Purdy story is, he hasn't really proven anything yet.

My count may be off by a few, but I counted 94 QBs taken in the 6th round or later since 2000. Other than Brady and Purdy, here are the ones that could MAYBE be argued to be starting caliber:

Marc Bulger
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Cassel
Gardner Minshew

And personally, I wouldn't consider any of them franchise QBs. So, being generous, 6 out of 94 QBs taken in the vicinity of Brady's pick worked on any real level. So I don't think the "Brady was a 6th rounder" argument really holds any water.

The point wasn't that first round QBs are sure things. FAR from it. But the odds get worse the lower down you get, and one GOAT outlier doesn't change that.

Yep. I am simply suggesting we listen to the damned offers for the pick before we decide to reject them. Madness.

 

[gobesmug]

name me one draft with 5 or 6 qbs of the future

reaction after reading this interview

Let's see, just a few years ago there was a draft with 5 QBs taken within the first 15 picks of the draft. 3 were in fact taken with the first 3 picks.

You don't spend a top 15 pick on a QB unless you think they have the potential for being a franchise QB.

Every player drafted before they play a snap is purely potential.

Not a single QB in this draft is an actual proven franchise QB. Mayo's comment of seeing 5 to 6 guys with that kind of potential isn't rare like you are implying.

 

[moosekill]

Yeah, we're all closely watching teams jockeying for the QBs, but there may also be jockeying happening for MHJ. It depends on how bad the Chargers want him. They cut or traded away most of their WR room, so you have to imagine they want him pretty bad, and a trade up from 5 to 3 probably isn't that expensive - a 3rd rounder and maybe a 4th rounder probably gets that done. Of course, Arizona may want to block that by moving up themselves 1 slot.

We all have googly eyes over the idea of getting multiple firsts by moving down to 11 or something, but the idea of going down 1 spot and picking up a 3rd, or two spots for a 3rd & 4th is not bad either. And you'll know that the team taking your spot at 3 is not going to take a QB, so whatever guy you want will still be there when you pick. But you'll pick up a 3rd, and that's a meaty round this year. More picks in the top 3 rounds is valuable this year.

My guess is you are selling the capital required to move up short.

 

[The Gr8est]

Yeah, we're all closely watching teams jockeying for the QBs, but there may also be jockeying happening for MHJ. It depends on how bad the Chargers want him. They cut or traded away most of their WR room, so you have to imagine they want him pretty bad, and a trade up from 5 to 3 probably isn't that expensive - a 3rd rounder and maybe a 4th rounder probably gets that done. Of course, Arizona may want to block that by moving up themselves 1 slot.

We all have googly eyes over the idea of getting multiple firsts by moving down to 11 or something, but the idea of going down 1 spot and picking up a 3rd, or two spots for a 3rd & 4th is not bad either. And you'll know that the team taking your spot at 3 is not going to take a QB, so whatever guy you want will still be there when you pick. But you'll pick up a 3rd, and that's a meaty round this year. More picks in the top 3 rounds is valuable this year.

The compensation to move down depends on who is available.

A freebie 3rd from Arizona is one thing, assuming you get a promise that they will not draft a QB, if that is possible, but a trade down to #5 should bring more than a 3rd and 4th, considering what you lose if another teams jumps you for your QB.

 

[Ross12]

My guess is you are selling the capital required to move up short.

Could be, yeah. But a 2nd just to go 2 spots seems steep? ****, I'd take it though obviously.

If you could get a 2nd, that's pretty sweet value, especially if you kind of like all the top QBs similarly. You know that one of them is gonna be there at 5, probably two, because one of the teams in the top 4 that traded with you is gonna take a WR in all likelihood. So you still get some level of choice. And you get to pick up a 2nd rounder, and now have two 2nds to take a possible WR1 and starting tackle.

 

[patfanken]

Such linguistic largess! You might have stopped at "Of course I don't know." Given that, how in the everlivin' world can it be controversial that I advocate awaiting the offers before deciding to reject them? Sports talk is not renowned for rational discourse, but discussion of this matter sets new standards for irrationality and pointlessness.

You forgot to answer the key question. Give me a "haul" that you take from the Vikes OR Cardinals.

BTW, the Cards WOULD be ideal, but I m not sure why they would do it. First.there are some who think the UW kid is just as good AND what team is going give away their draft to get a WR in perhaps the deepest WR draft in recent memory? Makes no sense. NOONE is moving ahead of the Cardinals to pick a WR. JMHO

AND OF course you should take the entire time allotted to listen to offers. Maybe Minnesota offers more than what's been talked about. Who knows? But based on the idea of just 11, 23, and next year's #1. Hard pass.

 

[Ivan]

"But the point is, there WILL be a guy there at #3 who will be worthy of the pick at the most important offensive position on the team"

I do not think you know this, at all. The record of drafting qb's is rich even with "cant-misses" (a standing for which neither Maye nor Daniels qualifies) missing. That is undeniable. My view is that until we know what the offer is (in contradistinction with pointless guessing over what other teams might offer), we must be open to vetting whatever offers for the pick are actually made. It is not at all uncommon for quite surprisingly generous offers to be made in the draft process, some the result of desperation, some of a genius for evaluation, I suppose, some in response to an impulse to gamble. You wait and see. Given all this, any judgment that we must take a qb is irresponsibly premature.

That said, if no munificent offer is made, as you (and frankly I) suspect, I would have no qualms about taking either Maye or Daniels. I would probably prefer Maye, but I wouldn't squawk if it ends up being Daniels.

I also think that any desperation to "get our guy"this year is at least somewhat mitigated by the fact we are very likely to have a dismal record again next year, probably not dismal enough to score a third pick, but high enough to pick up some sort of reasonable qb prospect. Las Vegas has us slotted to have the worst record in the NFL, which translates (to overextend the argument, I admit!) to gaining the first pick.

SorryvThelinius, but this really isn’t your Philosophy class, although you clearly miss it. This is simple football reality, if you believe there is a QB with a franchise ceiling you take them, coach them up, and build around them. It’s not abstract; it’s not theoretical, it’s just competition. If you have a really good QB you can contend, if you don’t you won’t. Or, as Neitzsche said so profoundly, “ take the quarterback, we’re all gonna die anyways.”

Or was that Mike Tyson? I always get those two mixed up.

 

[maust]

Yeah, we're all closely watching teams jockeying for the QBs, but there may also be jockeying happening for MHJ. It depends on how bad the Chargers want him. They cut or traded away most of their WR room, so you have to imagine they want him pretty bad, and a trade up from 5 to 3 probably isn't that expensive - a 3rd rounder and maybe a 4th rounder probably gets that done. Of course, Arizona may want to block that by moving up themselves 1 slot.

We all have googly eyes over the idea of getting multiple firsts by moving down to 11 or something, but the idea of going down 1 spot and picking up a 3rd, or two spots for a 3rd & 4th is not bad either. And you'll know that the team taking your spot at 3 is not going to take a QB, so whatever guy you want will still be there when you pick. But you'll pick up a 3rd, and that's a meaty round this year. More picks in the top 3 rounds is valuable this year.

Depending on who the Pats brain trust covets at QB the Chargers could be a viable option but they'd be taking the chance of Minnesota or another team moving up to the Cards spot and taking their guy. This is ofc predicated on the two teams picking right behind them both wanting the same guy. An unusual scenario but given the current structure of them both, one with a fairly high likelihood of coming into play.

 

[patfanken]

SorryvThelinius, but this really isn’t your Philosophy class, although you clearly miss it. This is simple football reality, if you believe there is a QB with a franchise ceiling you take them, coach them up, and build around them. It’s not abstract; it’s not theoretical, it’s just competition. If you have a really good QB you can contend, if you don’t you won’t. Or, as Neitzsche said so profoundly, “ take the quarterback, we’re all gonna die anyways.”

Or was that Mike Tyson? I always get those two mixed up.

Here's the thing, I, it's not even about 'belief'. EVERY team that picks a QB will cry to the heavens about how much they 'believe ' in their QB.

But in reality, alll are just HOPING they got it right. Draft history tells us from 1-250, it's never about what you know, it is ALL about what you THINK you know. AND you will be wrong about half the time.

 

[Ross12]

Depending on who the Pats brain trust covets at QB the Chargers could be a viable option but they'd be taking the chance of Minnesota or another team moving up to the Cards spot and taking their guy. This is ofc predicated on the two teams picking right behind them both wanting the same guy. An unusual scenario but given the current structure of them both, one with a fairly high likelihood of coming into play.

Also imagine if they don't actually love these QBs that much more than Nix or Penix or whomever and just fake it. They trade back to 5 for a 2nd, then trade back from 5 to 11 with Minnesota because McCarthy is still there at 5 for 11+23. Now they have 11, 23, 34 and 37.

 

[maust]

BTW, the Cards WOULD be ideal, but I m not sure why they would do it. First.there are some who think the UW kid is just as good AND what team is going give away their draft to get a WR in perhaps the deepest WR draft in recent memory? Makes no sense. NOONE is moving ahead of the Cardinals to pick a WR. JMHO

You've gone from "The ONLY team that has a shot at getting us off that pick and that's the Vikings." To conceding the Cards would be ideal before declaring "NOONE is moving ahead of the Cardinals to pick a WR" primarily based on your evaluation of this draft's depth at WR. As a rule I respect your opinions but I'd submit your emphatic pronouncement here is as off as it was when you just as emphatically pronounce the Vikes as the only team moving the Pats off that pick. In this case the opinions that matter regarding Harrison's value belong to Monti Ossenfort and Hortiz/Harbaugh. All due respect there's too many moving parts for anyone not the Chicago Bears GM to be declaring anything as an absolute

 

[maust]

Also imagine if they don't actually love these QBs that much more than Nix or Penix or whomever and just fake it. They trade back to 5 for a 2nd, then trade back from 5 to 11 with Minnesota because McCarthy is still there at 5 for 11+23. Now they have 11, 23, 34 and 37.

Lot of moving parts to consider for sure. BTW I couldn't help but notice you ended up in the position of defending something I had brought up. Thanks for doing the light work my dude!

 

[MahomestoKelce]

Every pick is a risk.

But if you don't pick a franchise QB now, when will you get the opportunity? The next class is dreadful. Do you want to risk having to move up, while relinquishing key assets, for a lesser/same guy in a few years.

I don’t think going with the "Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round", approach works. It's never happening again.

 

[Ivan]

Here's the thing, I, it's not even about 'belief'. EVERY team that picks a QB will cry to the heavens about how much they 'believe ' in their QB.

But in reality, alll are just HOPING they got it right. Draft history tells us from 1-250, it's never about what you know, it is ALL about what you THINK you know. AND you will be wrong about half the time.

While I think it’s true that every team will pimp their QB I also believe that smart organizations spend countless hours evaluating these prospects, and with the top 3 in this draft there is a ton of footage and production against quality teams to judge them on, which is different than some of the crapshoots teams have taken in prior drafts. Out of the top 4 Daniels has the most production, and McCarthy the least, but they all have enough to gauge them on. Is that a guarantee if suuccess,? No, because there’s no minor league to work things out in and develop, it’s either sink or swim. However it’s very clear that your best shot at getting a franchise QB is in the top half of the first round. And if you have that pick, and they are available then I believe you take that shot. And in the Patriots case they will have the rest of this Draft, which is very strong at their two top positions of need, after QB, Ot and WR. Then they have the rest of the off-season, in season trades, another free agency, and another Draft, which should be more than enough to fill out their offensive needs. So get the WB on board, and then do the rest of the work to help them succeed.

 

[venecol]

I'm very impressed with @Ross12 analysis of every single word uttered by Mayo to decipher the true meaning and intent of what the Patriots will do with the #3 pick. Unfortunately, you seem to be discombobulated.

Thought I would start a thread.

Some of the highlights from my POV:

- Says there are "5 or 6" QBs in this draft who can be their QB of the future, but no indication of who they are
- Talks about trading down quite a few times; at one point says "the guaranteed way to win is the get more picks"
- Talked a lot about Drake Maye when asked - said he has a high ceiling, but then also seems to imply he has a low floor
- Still working trade market, there will be guys who come available at the draft and after the draft that they may target
- Seemed to imply Okorafor is currently the starting LT if no one else was acquired, but the draft has not happened yet, etc
- Showed awareness of the NFLPA report card and said they have a team built that is targeting fixes to areas with low scores
- Highlighted belief in development of drafted QB and his staff's ability to do so, and how it did not go well in that area for Mac in '22

If one is to try to read the tea leaves a bit here -

- they like a lot of QBs
- they are open to trading down
- they really love the idea of getting more picks
- they don't really have a starting LT

Definitely reads to me like they're inclined to trade down. Especially when you consider that they feel Maye has a "low floor" - that probably puts him in a similar bucket with someone like McCarthy, and then who knows who the other couple of QBs are - Nix is probably one, but they have almost entirely avoided Penix so I kind of discount him - Rattler, maybe? If that's the case, a trade down certainly could position them to fill WR/LT/QB all in one draft.

Question: "Do you have a sense at what Washington will do at 2?"

Mayo: "Honestly, we have no clue, I don't think anyone in here really knows exactly what Washington is gonna do. I think everyone knows what Chicago is gonna do at 1, but the rest of it honestly is up in the air. And when you see these other teams making moves, you know, acquiring pieces to move, we can sit here and say Washington today, but that could be somebody else on draft day. But I don't want to speculate on that."

Seemed like an odd comment. Hinting that Minnesota acquired picks to trade up with them on draft day?

It is noteworthy that Mayo had a ton to say about Maye and how "there's no ceiling on a guy like that" (even if he did acknowledge that he needs to develop), but then when asked about Jayden Daniels, his response was "Yeah, I had a Zoom with him, I met him" and then changed the subject to talk about traveling to pro days.

I wonder if maybe Jayden is actually their guy and they're trying to hide it... and if he goes at #2 then they're trading down.

Building off my last point, if Washington knows NE likes Daniels, then that would also lead to why there's a lot of leaks about them liking Daniels, even though supposedly Adam Peters loves Maye, and they traded Howell because Maye & Howell were best friends. They could be trying to press NE to trade up 1 pick slot to get their guy.

The reality is that what Mayo is saying is Patriots will not select any QB during this draft or trade back. They will pick MHJ, Coleman and Polk with their first 3 picks, and BPA with the others except for #193 (the Jax pick) which they will use to trade for Kyle Trask, the real QBOF. This will obviously shock the entire NFL and thus, a win-win for the Patriots. Kyle Trask will be the Week 1 starter for the NE Patriots. Book it.