JC Jackson has the best passer rating allowed in the NFL

[Tony2046]

I'm still waiting for Bacon Bits to answer these questions I posed back on Saturday (post #158):

1. Why do you think the NFL has worse teams pick ahead of better teams in the draft? Why does the worst team pick first in each round and the best team pick last?

2. If you gave any NFL head coach or GM the opportunity to pick in any of the 32 spots in each round, where would they pick and why? Where's the LAST place they'd choose to pick and why? (And where would YOU prefer to pick, Mr. Bacon, and why?)

Forum friends, note that for all his bluster, he hasn't yet given these questions a shot. I know he knows better than all of us and all of the current NFL GMs (including BB), so I know I'd certainly appreciate his highly informed and knowledge-based answers to these questions.

Ironically if all the Head Coaches and GMs followed Bacon on twitter and knew who the real first round talents were they'd all want to pick first which would reinstate the validity of the Walter value chart. haha

 

[ivanvamp]

Ironically if all the Head Coaches and GMs followed Bacon on twitter and knew who the real first round talents were they'd all want to pick first which would reinstate the validity of the Walter value chart. haha

The whole premise Bacon Bits offers that there are good players picked in later rounds which therefore means that these guys suck at drafting is just so patently obviously absurd. I mean, in any draft, there are going to be more than 32 quality players taken, so by definition there will be some non-first-round guys that get picked that turn out to be really good.

And I'm pretty sure the NFL guys know that. Not sure Bacon Bits is on to anything revolutionary there.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Steal of the draft - better than Butler and Logan Ryan

 

[WaterfallJumper]

What is going on in here?

Agree or disagree about the overall structure of things, when it comes to specific player evaluation, then I'd say @BaconGrundleCandy does as well as any professional. He's got years worth of draft evaluations -- all grades posted before their respective drafts -- and you can go back to see where he hit and where he missed. I respect that. It's an immense amount of work, and he's been extraordinarily good at it for the last half a decade or more.

I take issue with the idea that drafting last isn't a disadvantage (sorry, BGC), but I do appreciate the meticulous work he puts into scouting prospects. By the way, he's also got a podcast and writes for several draft publications, so it's not like he's just some dude on a message board spouting off nonsense. I don't agree with him here, but I certainly think he's one of the best resources we have on the entire board for familiarizing ourselves with college players and draft prospects. It's not fair to throw around the insults, in my opinion, but I'm backing out of this thread after reading some of the strange posts lately (Pelosi, what???).

 

[ivanvamp]

What is going on in here?

Agree or disagree about the overall structure of things, when it comes to specific player evaluation, then I'd say @BaconGrundleCandy does as well as any professional. He's got years worth of draft evaluations -- all grades posted before their respective drafts -- and you can go back to see where he hit and where he missed. I respect that. It's an immense amount of work, and he's been extraordinarily good at it for the last half a decade or more.

I take issue with the idea that drafting last isn't a disadvantage (sorry, BGC), but I do appreciate the meticulous work he puts into scouting prospects. By the way, he's also got a podcast and writes for several draft publications, so it's not like he's just some dude on a message board spouting off nonsense. I don't agree with him here, but I certainly think he's one of the best resources we have on the entire board for familiarizing ourselves with college players and draft prospects. It's not fair to throw around the insults, in my opinion, but I'm backing out of this thread after reading some of the strange posts lately (Pelosi, what???).

You may be right. I don't know who he is in real life, and I've never seen anything you're talking about here, so I couldn't tell you anything about his evaluations relative to the rest of the NFL.

But on the topic at hand (that was, uh, a major derail from JC Jackson, to be sure), he's dead wrong and he knows it.

EDIT: And to put a second-grade thought out there.... I only started with harsh language to (or about) him because he started in with me. Let's make that clear. As I said in an earlier post, I'm normally non-combative here (except with Deus) but he pushed all the right buttons with me so I'm only gonna take partial responsibility for that.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'm still waiting for Bacon Bits to answer these questions I posed back on Saturday (post #158):

1. Why do you think the NFL has worse teams pick ahead of better teams in the draft? Why does the worst team pick first in each round and the best team pick last?

2. If you gave any NFL head coach or GM the opportunity to pick in any of the 32 spots in each round, where would they pick and why? Where's the LAST place they'd choose to pick and why? (And where would YOU prefer to pick, Mr. Bacon, and why?)

Forum friends, note that for all his bluster, he hasn't yet given these questions a shot. I know he knows better than all of us and all of the current NFL GMs (including BB), so I know I'd certainly appreciate his highly informed and knowledge-based answers to these questions.

Of course the system is designed to help out poor teams but teams don't always help themselves. @maineman209 pointed this out w his buffet example & I have said the same exact thing iiow as well. This holds true every single draft.

The best players are never taken in order. Teams reach for players all the time.

I'm not arguing New England won't have a shot at Nick Bosa w/out giving up a boatload. I'm simply saying it's a tiny disadvantage if any.

Add in good/great teams aren't worrying about the QB spot & that "disadvantage" becomes even smaller.

As far as draft order again you're completely showing your naivety here.

How's Jacksonville liking Fournettes contract right about now compared to NO & Kamara's? This example is plentiful fwiw.

If you miss in the lottery you not only set your team back from a position standpoint but you're paying a high cap # on a bad/wasted pick.

Also some years you're simply not going to have the talent there to warrant that high of pick.

So sure it's great to have a lottery pick unless you're picking RB's, missing on players or the talent simply isn't there that particular year. Doesn't mean it's a bad draft by any means but why pay a lot of money for a player that doesn't fit that bill.

 

[brdmaverick]

Oh when read the title I thought it was a bad thing, which surprised me. I was thinking ‘well the qbs May have a good rating against him but he seems to pass the eye test’

Then I opened the thread to find it was a positive post

 

[Ring 6]

Of course the system is designed to help out poor teams but teams don't always help themselves. @maineman209 pointed this out w his buffet example & I have said the same exact thing iiow as well. This holds true every single draft.

The best players are never taken in order. Teams reach for players all the time.

I'm not arguing New England won't have a shot at Nick Bosa w/out giving up a boatload. I'm simply saying it's a tiny disadvantage if any.

Add in good/great teams aren't worrying about the QB spot & that "disadvantage" becomes even smaller.

As far as draft order again you're completely showing your naivety here.

How's Jacksonville liking Fournettes contract right about now compared to NO & Kamara's? This example is plentiful fwiw.

If you miss in the lottery you not only set your team back from a position standpoint but you're paying a high cap # on a bad/wasted pick.

Also some years you're simply not going to have the talent there to warrant that high of pick.

So sure it's great to have a lottery pick unless you're picking RB's, missing on players or the talent simply isn't there that particular year. Doesn't mean it's a bad draft by any means but why pay a lot of money for a player that doesn't fit that bill.

What is a lottery pick?

Are you saying New Orleans has a better draft slot in the 3rd than Jacksonville in the first?
Jacksonville could have taken Kamara if they wanted to.
That’s the advantage, you have more players to choose from.

Your argument is like saying having more $ available in free agency isn’t an advantage because the guy who gets the biggest contract doesn’t end up playing the best.

If your argument was that you can overcome the disadvantage of picking later with smart or lucky picks that would be one thing but saying there is no advantage is just wrong.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You may be right. I don't know who he is in real life, and I've never seen anything you're talking about here, so I couldn't tell you anything about his evaluations relative to the rest of the NFL.

But on the topic at hand (that was, uh, a major derail from JC Jackson, to be sure), he's dead wrong and he knows it.

EDIT: And to put a second-grade thought out there.... I only started with harsh language to (or about) him because he started in with me. Let's make that clear. As I said in an earlier post, I'm normally non-combative here (except with Deus) but he pushed all the right buttons with me so I'm only gonna take partial responsibility for that.

Idk man it seems people take this sh it a lil too seriously. It's all fun for me. The draft is a hobby I've studied & participated in by grading players since 2011. Im far from perfect & this isn't being ****y or w/e but I've done very well. It's all there before the draft & doesn't change. If anyone wants to say I don't know what I'm doing I challenge you to look at those & come back.

Again I really want to emphasize I'm not saying that in any type of way. Grades speak for themselves.

As to this topic again there's no reason to get seriously upset over this.

 

[ivanvamp]

Of course the system is designed to help out poor teams but teams don't always help themselves. @maineman209 pointed this out w his buffet example & I have said the same exact thing iiow as well. This holds true every single draft.

Exactly. The system is designed to help out the worse teams *by giving them an advantage in the draft by allowing them to pick ahead of better teams in every round* (barring trades or NFL penalties and such). Hence, we can conclude that picking earlier in rounds gives a team an advantage over teams picking later in rounds. Elementary, my dear Watson. That teams don't always help themselves is their fault, not because they don't have an advantage picking at the top.

Plenty of NFL players have huge athletic advantages over others but they waste it on drugs or crime or whatever (see Aaron Hernandez). Doesn't mean they don't have an advantage to start with. Just means they blew it.

The best players are never taken in order. Teams reach for players all the time.

No argument there. Teams quite often make bad choices. Sometimes they make excellent ones. It's an art, not a science. EVERYONE makes mistakes...lots of them. What makes you better than the other guy is making fewer mistakes than him.

I'm not arguing New England won't have a shot at Nick Bosa w/out giving up a boatload. I'm simply saying it's a tiny disadvantage if any.

It's a tiny disadvantage to not be able to draft the best players?

Add in good/great teams aren't worrying about the QB spot & that "disadvantage" becomes even smaller.

The Pats drafted QB nine times since 2001. They're ALWAYS worried about the QB position, even if they don't always look to invest first round resources there.

As far as draft order again you're completely showing your naivety here.

No. It's how the system is designed. The earlier you pick, the more advantageous it is. Period. What you DO with that advantage...well...your mileage may vary.

How's Jacksonville liking Fournettes contract right about now compared to NO & Kamara's? This example is plentiful fwiw.

Right. Teams make mistakes. This is supposed to be some revelation?

If you miss in the lottery you not only set your team back from a position standpoint but you're paying a high cap # on a bad/wasted pick.

So are you suggesting that it's actually better to draft later in each round, to save yourself from making costly mistakes? If so, why wouldn't EVERY NFL team choose that route? Why would teams prefer to pick earlier (which they ALL would) rather than later? Because it puts them at a competitive DISadvantage?

Also some years you're simply not going to have the talent there to warrant that high of pick.

Then you trade out of it if you don't think it's worth it. And by doing so you'll add picks for the next year's draft most likely. See, even in bad draft classes it's STILL better to have higher draft picks rather than lower ones.

So sure it's great to have a lottery pick unless you're picking RB's, missing on players or the talent simply isn't there that particular year. Doesn't mean it's a bad draft by any means but why pay a lot of money for a player that doesn't fit that bill.

All you're really saying is that teams often screw up their draft advantage. Well no kidding. Belichick screws up less than other teams do, on the whole, and he does so despite starting out at a big draft disadvantage. Which we'll all happily accept because it means they're consistently successful.

Just talking about DRAFTING here.... if you were an NFL GM and could have any slot #1 through #32, which would you take and why?


Just in closing, it dawns on me that we may be talking a little at cross-purposes so in the spirit of magnanimity, I'd like to see if we can clear it up. This whole time, I've been arguing that DRAFT POSITION confers a draft advantage to teams picking near the top of the draft versus those teams picking near the bottom of the draft. Those high draft picks are currency that can be used to select better players (or perceived better players anyway) OR they can be used as trade currency to get other things they might prefer, things that they might not otherwise be able to obtain.

It seems from this post like you are talking about what teams ACTUALLY do with that draft advantage, and it seems like you think I've been arguing that having a draft advantage sort of automatically means that those teams are going to have better draft results. If that's what you think I'm arguing, let me dispel that right now. That's NOT what I'm saying. CLEARLY some teams completely screw up their drafts (Jamarcus Russell?) even when they have the #1 pick in the draft. And clearly some great players are picked in later rounds (Tom Brady?). It's an art, not a science, and some people are much better at this than others. Nobody is arguing otherwise - certainly not me.

All I'm saying is that if you have the #1 pick, you have a draft advantage - more draft currency, if you will - than other teams. What you DO with that advantage (extra currency) is up to you, and it's entirely possible you could screw it up badly, just as people with less draft currency (a draft disadvantage) could perform really well and make the most of it.

 

[ivanvamp]

Idk man it seems people take this sh it a lil too seriously. It's all fun for me. The draft is a hobby I've studied & participated in by grading players since 2011. Im far from perfect & this isn't being ****y or w/e but I've done very well. It's all there before the draft & doesn't change. If anyone wants to say I don't know what I'm doing I challenge you to look at those & come back.

Again I really want to emphasize I'm not saying that in any type of way. Grades speak for themselves.

As to this topic again there's no reason to get seriously upset over this.

Well I still don't know who you are so I have no way of knowing where to look for your stuff.

And let's be clear: the only reason I got combative is because you started insulting me.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

What is a lottery pick?

Are you saying New Orleans has a better draft slot in the 3rd than Jacksonville in the first?
Jacksonville could have taken Kamara if they wanted to.
That’s the advantage, you have more players to choose from.

Your argument is like saying having more $ available in free agency isn’t an advantage because the guy who gets the biggest contract doesn’t end up playing the best.

If your argument was that you can overcome the disadvantage of picking later with smart or lucky picks that would be one thing but saying there is no advantage is just wrong.

Andy go to bed. You don't even know what a lottery pick & want to be taken seriously?

Yes Jacksonville obviously had a chance to draft Kamara. They didn't, he fell & NO took ADVANTAGE of that.

Sure having a boatload of money in FA is great unless you're the Jets & spend foolishly or that particular FA class isn't great.

Seriously Andy go to bed

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Well I still don't know who you are so I have no way of knowing where to look for your stuff.

And let's be clear: the only reason I got combative is because you started insulting me.

Lol ok man I'm sorry & hope ur New Year's in great & safe. All my grades are posted in my thread & Bob's in the draft forum

 

[Ring 6]

Andy go to bed. You don't even know what a lottery pick & want to be taken seriously?

Does the NFL have a draft lottery?
And you think you are an expert?

Yes Jacksonville obviously had a chance to draft Kamara. They didn't, he fell & NO took ADVANTAGE of that.

Jacksonville has the advantage of being able to pick either.

Sure having a boatload of money in FA is great unless you're the Jets & spend foolishly or that particular FA class isn't great.

So having more and better resources is an advantage unless to want to argue it isn’t?

Seriously Andy go to bed

Real intelligent discourse there.
I can understand why you want me to stop, because you know you are wrong and aren’t capable of admitting it.

 

[maineman209]

There's one thing in this draft discussion that I take issue with. It's likely that most folks will dismiss this as merely a matter of semantics, but I believe it goes to the core of how people perceive the draft.

Folks keep referring to the draftees as "players". They're not ... yet. None of them.

They're "college prospects" - prospective "players" who have yet to participate in an NFL practice, much less take even one live-fire snap against experienced NFL-level players (actual "players") in an NFL-level contest that is meaningful.

So, when teams are selecting in the 1st round, they're not selecting from among the "best players", they're selecting the as-yet-unproven prospect that looks best to them (for whatever reason). They're taking a stab at possibilities.

There are no guarantees attached to any of these prospects, regardless what round they're selected in, and regardless how much (or little) hype their names have received from any draft analyst.

 

[Kontradiction]

There's one thing in this draft discussion that I take issue with. It's likely that most folks will dismiss this as merely a matter of semantics, but I believe it goes to the core of how people perceive the draft.

Folks keep referring to the draftees as "players". They're not ... yet. None of them.

They're "college prospects" - prospective "players" who have yet to participate in an NFL practice, much less take even one live-fire snap against experienced NFL-level players (actual "players") in an NFL-level contest that is meaningful.

So, when teams are selecting in the 1st round, they're not selecting from among the "best players", they're selecting the as-yet-unproven prospect that looks best to them (for whatever reason). They're taking a stab at possibilities.

There are no guarantees attached to any of these prospects, regardless what round they're selected in, and regardless how much (or little) hype their names have received from any draft analyst.

Especially when the first round is littered with bust after bust. It's not when you pick, it's who you pick and making the best decision with the capital you have. Of the top 10 rushing leaders from 2018, 6 were picked outside of the first round (one undrafted FA). Of the top 10 receiving leaders from 2018, 6 were picked outside of the first round. Antonio Brown, #11, was selected in the 6th. Quarterback is really the only one where you can make a sound argument that picking early is more beneficial than picking late and, as we know, that isn't even always the case.

 

[mgteich]

I disagree. Earlier is likely to be better than later.

Take any position and look at the analysis. We probably have had some posted in the last week. DE's picked in the top 20 of the first round are much more likely to succeed (by any measure) than those chosen in the top 20 of the 4th (or the 2nd or the 3rd).
======
The issue is how much better. How much more is it worth to pick at 20 than 40? Many believe that the GM's overrate the early picks, and also the difference between 20 and 100. I tend to agree. There are indeed blue-chippers who a team has rated highly and is well worth a top 15 or 20 pick (the break is different each year). After that, it it often worth trading down unless there is value in a player that you have rated very highly.

So, sure, if we are looking for a RB, picking one at 25 often isn't much better than 45. More often the difference in value is based on scarcity rather than projected productivity.

. Quarterback is really the only one where you can make a sound argument that picking early is more beneficial than picking late and, as we know, that isn't even always the case.

 

[ivanvamp]

Lol ok man I'm sorry & hope ur New Year's in great & safe. All my grades are posted in my thread & Bob's in the draft forum

Ok all good Bacon. I had no idea about the draft forum. I’ll check it out and see what you’ve got. Happy new year and be safe.

 

[Kontradiction]

I disagree. Earlier is likely to be better than later.

Take any position and look at the analysis. We probably have had some posted in the last week. DE's picked in the top 20 of the first round are much more likely to succeed (by any measure) than those chosen in the top 20 of the 4th (or the 2nd or the 3rd).

Out of the top 10 players in sacks, 7 were DE/OLBs and 3 were selected outside of the first round. Others were selected later in the first.

 

[ivanvamp]

Especially when the first round is littered with bust after bust. It's not when you pick, it's who you pick and making the best decision with the capital you have. Of the top 10 rushing leaders from 2018, 6 were picked outside of the first round (one undrafted FA). Of the top 10 receiving leaders from 2018, 6 were picked outside of the first round. Antonio Brown, #11, was selected in the 6th. Quarterback is really the only one where you can make a sound argument that picking early is more beneficial than picking late and, as we know, that isn't even always the case.

When you pick matters. That’s why everyone in the NFL would prefer to have the #1 pick in the draft.

It’s like if you need a job done around your house and you are hiring. If you have more money, you’ll be able to afford more expensive plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc. odds are you’ll be able to afford a better worker than your neighbor who has half your money.

Doesn’t mean you’re gonna make a wise choice though. You might still pick a crappy guy. Conversely, the guy with half your money may know more about this than you and pick a better guy. But having more resources OF COURSE is an advantage. This is self-evidently so.

It’s why everyone would like to make more money than they do. It’s an advantage.