ELITE PASS-RUSHERS, Over-analyzed

[bucky]

Seems to me that, under BB, the Pats have always had a utility DL or two on the roster who ended up contributing as a "specialist" situational sub-rusher after 2-4 years of development. IIRC, neither Green nor Wright really had more than a sack or two per season until their 3rd/4th years. I think Pryor and Deaderick are guys intended for a similar career on BB's roster. If they don't come along fast enough or have "other issues" (Deaderick), he can cut them without losing much investment and just pick up another late-rounder.

I agree. I just think Pryor hasn't shown much in that role. Jarvis was much better than Pryor even as a rookie. And Wright really wasn't asked to be a 3rd down specialist until Seymour left town. Deaderick, IMO, has the potential to be a 3-down DE and a real steal. But his "other issues", whatever they are, need to be resolved.

 

[sg14]

So the OP says what is the point moving way up in the draft for a pass rush, when history doesn't prove it is worthwhile.

Sounds good to me.

But we all want a pass rush.

I have been looking at this as "How do you replace Seymour?".
I see it as needing two players to replace Seymour, one for run defense, Stroud maybe, and a speed guy, maybe that Bailey kid from Miami.

The Super Bowl DL was second to none, and even with Warren coming back, are we to expect the 2011 DL to be as good, I can't see that.

I hope to pick up 2 DL and 2 OL in the first 4 picks. Have no clue as to who.

 

[jeffbiologist]

What the statistics tell me is that in the top of the draft are unique athletes that can play both the run and pass, stay on the field and get sacks. In the second round and lower are the guys that can do 1 thing but have to be taught the 2nd. Makes sense for the disproportion. Next, it makes sense that many of the sack leaders also have another elite pass rusher on the team. Meaning that a single player can be gameplanned around but a scheme with multiple players causes more than double the problems. Third, our lack of reliance of a big time pass rusher means that rotation/injury/pricetag(value again). Getting a individuals numbers isnt near as important as filling holes and increasing overall depth of the rotation. Our young D is a work in progress and our O might have to carry us another year but its gelling. If you have anyone that is that much better than anyone else that means you have to PAY him, BBs design of defense with lowered stats/increased reps for backups plays into the sweet spot. Its much more important to not miss than it is to HIT in this system. In the era of salary cap and the constant medical issues its far better to have 5 guys with 5 sacks each than 1 guy with 15 and 4 guys with 2. BB knows a guy like Moore can be had on the cheap because he isnt a complete player, teams can gameplan against a passrush specialist and run over him all day. We want guys that accept coaching alot more than guys who think they know/can do anything. If we pick up a "elite athlete" type I would guess it would be a guy that is coming off an injury simply because we dont "value" them the way other teams do.

 

[patsfan-1982]

when i think of Elite pass rushers in the NFL i think of DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison, the pats are not going to get that kind of a player in this Draft.

we forget that this defense was on pace to set a record for most yerds gaven up in NFL history befor Brady started scoreing 30 + points per game... so no a pass rush alone wont fix this defense but it would help hide some of the weakness at DB OLB and DE this defense still needs a few years to get to a top 5 defense

 

[MaineMan]

when i think of Elite pass rushers in the NFL i think of DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison, the pats are not going to get that kind of a player in this Draft.

we forget that this defense was on pace to set a record for most yerds gaven up in NFL history befor Brady started scoreing 30 + points per game... so no a pass rush alone wont fix this defense but it would help hide some of the weakness at DB OLB and DE this defense still needs a few years to get to a top 5 defense

Well, based on the admittedly crude and incomplete "stats" in the original post, the Pats may not get a "DeMarcus Ware" pass rusher in this draft without trading up to #11. However, the only thing preventing the Pats from getting a "James Harrison" out of this draft is the fact that there won't be any UDFAs allowed this time.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Agreed. But, again, I think the root cause was D-line deficiencies. Aside from Wilfork, the D-line couldn't tie up blockers or stop the run. Aside from Mike Wright in sub-packages (not a great run-stopper himself), the D-line couldn't get much interior pressure. This had the effect of making the run a legitimate threat for LBs to cover, even under fairly ridiculous 3rd-and-long circumstances. In turn, play-action, especially by strong running teams like the Jets, became inordinately effective against us (also see the Browns game). THIS, in turn, took any potential "first step" advantage away from our pass-rushers and allowed opposition pass-pro schemes that extra half-beat to get well-set and more difficult to dislodge. No matter how great a guy's "first step" may be, if he has to hesitate even for a fraction of a second, it becomes largely irrelevant.

Getting back Ty Warren (healthy) at LDE, and adding a legitimate run-stopping, blocker-eating RDE who can also contribute some pressure on his own - would allow Wilfork to move back to the middle and should significantly reduce that run threat and the effectiveness of play-action. The domino effect should help our existing pass-rushers deploy whatever first step they have more often and to be more effective at getting that disruption, if not more sacks. This is a basic part of what the Jets were able to do against OUR offense and its relatively weak running threat.

This is why I think we need to draft Wilkerson and Taylor in the first round. We are one injury away from being in the same predicament next year if we do not draft two D linemen early.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Well, based on the admittedly crude and incomplete "stats" in the original post, the Pats may not get a "DeMarcus Ware" pass rusher in this draft without trading up to #11. However, the only thing preventing the Pats from getting a "James Harrison" out of this draft is the fact that there won't be any UDFAs allowed this time.

I do not see any OLB/DE types in this draft as athletic as Ware. The closest is Quinn, who reminds me more of a Merriman in his prime.

 

[mcsully]

I do not see any OLB/DE types in this draft as athletic as Ware. The closest is Quinn, who reminds me more of a Merriman in his prime.

Preaching to the choir.. Adding a player of this calibur along with last years rookies having a full season under their belts, I can envision us getting over the hump and making a real run at another SB


I'm with a select few, who feel sitting back and picking BPA isn't the way to go.. BB has turned over the roster in 2 years with 20+ draft picks. A good part of these picks are starting and showed steady improvement during their short time.

It's time to address our weakness at pass rush, specifically at RDE and OLB.

How much impact is a LT, Guard, 1st WR, safety going to have on our wins and losses this year? If you could walk away with a Quinn and Watts/Jordan by giving up your 1st 5 picks, would you? How this team is currently built, would an Orlando Pace or D.Ware have a bigger impact in the win column?

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Look how many Steelers and Giants are on those "lists" Look any team can block one guy, what I have been saying for a few years now, is that the Pats need someone who will open up the pass rush for everybody. Right now nobody fears anyone in the Pats front seven, there isn't a pass rusher in the lot of them. BUT if you add a Robert Quinn/Justin Houston, maybe (I'm not exactly sold on him yet) Aldon Smith, then you have to account for him and then you still have Cunningham bringing constant pressure from the other side (hoepfully he is practicing tackling as we speak). Then this will open up the Warren and (fill in the blank) at the DE positions. Mike Wright led the team in sacks, because he was left one on one all the time. Look NT is responcible for draws, the DE have screen responcibilities, what the Pats need is a force at BOTH the OLB positions, two guys who rush the passer relentlessly.
Now say the Pats go hole hog and draft Quinn/Houston AND a Cam Jordon, then you are really talking about bringing it. I still can't sleep at night watching Dirty Sanchez just sit back in the pocket and toss up prayers that got answered. What was the best game the Pats played last year? Clearly it was the game that they brought the heat on the Jocktupus (rotheliesberger), they were coming at him at all directions. That is what the defense needs, look, you can have 5 all -pro DBs, but they can not cover forever, you need to make the QB throw the ball, moving, and before he wants to (see Brady not finding the open guys in the loss to the Jets for details).

I don't think I can take another year of TBC, he is god awful, Ninkovich is a fine special teamer/back-up, Cunningham seems to be the answer on one side. I thought that he set the edge very well, did not allow anyone to get outside him, and brought some pressure on the QB. Now imagine a truck coming from the other side, and that is what they need.

Again no one guy can be an "elite pass rusher" without a team behind him, BUT you can't just make an "elite pass rusher" regardless of how well the rest of your front seven is, if you don't have the athlete on the outside that the offense HAS to account for.

 

[mcsully]

Again no one guy can be an "elite pass rusher" without a team behind him, BUT you can't just make an "elite pass rusher" regardless of how well the rest of your front seven is, if you don't have the athlete on the outside that the offense HAS to account for.

I'm standing up and clapping right now..

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Mike Wright led the team in sacks, because he was left one on one all the time.

Not on my TV, Wright was splitting double-teams and drawing the heat inside. It may not have been coincidence when Cunningham faded down the stretch, I'd love to see the coach's scoring on QB pressure and hits for each game to see if Wright's injury coincides with the drop-off late in the season.

 

[MaineMan]

I do not see any OLB/DE types in this draft as athletic as Ware. The closest is Quinn, who reminds me more of a Merriman in his prime.

Ummm.... I was really making more of a joke about not being able to get a "Harrison."

 

[MaineMan]

Not on my TV, Wright was splitting double-teams and drawing the heat inside. It may not have been coincidence when Cunningham faded down the stretch, I'd love to see the coach's scoring on QB pressure and hits for each game to see if Wright's injury coincides with the drop-off late in the season.

Conversely, I'd like to see how much more effective the pass rush from Ninkovich and Cunningham becomes once we restore a 30-front that offenses have to respect.

 

[mcsully]

Let me throw out an idea to the people who want to site back and pick BPA


When Brady retires and if we don't have a viable option, do we continue with the philosphy of sitting back and picking BPA or target a QB and move up and get him?

Pat Kirwan and plenty of ex NFL management, on Sirius, say next to QB, Pass Rusher is the hardest and most important position to fill (its a passing league and after you can pass, you gotta stop the other guy from passing

I'd like to understand why standing pat and picking BPA is the way to go.. And how people make it a point to push the idea that its a good strategy..

 

[MaineMan]

Let me throw out an idea to the people who want to site back and pick BPA


When Brady retires and if we don't have a viable option, do we continue with the philosphy of sitting back and picking BPA or target a QB and move up and get him?

Pat Kirwan and plenty of ex NFL management, on Sirius, say next to QB, Pass Rusher is the hardest and most important position to fill (its a passing league and after you can pass, you gotta stop the other guy from passing

I'd like to understand why standing pat and picking BPA is the way to go.. And how people make it a point to push the idea that its a good strategy..

Well, I'd say that most teams ARE looking for "pass rusher" more than "run-stopper" at DE/OLB and even at DT. Prospects who have demonstrated the potential to become "elite" pass-rushers are in high demand, even if their run-stopping potential isn't as clearly evident (which is not to say "non-existent"). By the law of supply-and-demand, such high potential pass-rush prospects get pushed toward the top of the auction, displacing and pushing down prospects whose pass-rush potential is not so evident, often even if their run-stopping potential is more evident.

So, if you're looking for a potentially elite pass-rusher (almost regardless of other evident abilities), moving UP into the top 10 or so definitely seems like the way to go. If you're more interested in a guy who might be a good run-stopper early on in his rookie season with the potential to develop a good (if not elite) pass-rush later, then you're probably better off staying put and allowing the BPA to fall to you, or even to follow them down by trading down, as they naturally fall, and pick up some extra picks along the way (hypothetically to be used to upgrade your second-level needs, specialists, role players, reserves and developmental stable).

So, it really depends on what you want.

Now, whether or not BB actually wants a pass-rusher, and whether or not BB SHOULD want a pass-rusher - these are two totally separate questions. Those here who answer "No" to both these questions would probably favor staying put or trading down.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Let me throw out an idea to the people who want to site back and pick BPA


When Brady retires and if we don't have a viable option, do we continue with the philosphy of sitting back and picking BPA or target a QB and move up and get him?

Pat Kirwan and plenty of ex NFL management, on Sirius, say next to QB, Pass Rusher is the hardest and most important position to fill (its a passing league and after you can pass, you gotta stop the other guy from passing

I'd like to understand why standing pat and picking BPA is the way to go.. And how people make it a point to push the idea that its a good strategy..

NE trades for Tebow and all's well. :snob:

BB's biggest trade-up in recent years was into the high second for a WR, in hindsight a waste of draft picks. Smaller trades to move up in the early rounds seem to have worked out better. I look at the top rated kids by draftniks and think Von Miller is the safest edge rusher in this draft, and NE will need to do a "Ditka" to make that happen. Having frightened myself into a rare moment of rationality, I think, of other ways to improve the pass rush, perhaps by staying put or by being a little less profligate in my trade-up scenarios or by trading down and bringing in more competition for the role ... or competition for improved coverage ... or for taller DL to clog passing lanes, or more explosive DL to collapse the pocket faster ... so many choices! :woohoo:

 

[mcsully]

NE trades for Tebow and all's well. :snob:

I bet people actually think this will happen.. Kind of like Fitzy joining our team.. hehehehe..

 

[AzPatsFan]

We've all heard the claims.

"We need an elite pass-rusher or we'll never make it back to the Superbowl!"

"If only we had an elite pass-rusher like McGinest again!"

"We NEED to stop screwing around and trade UP this time to get an elite pass-rusher!"

Such claims annoy me partly because, hell, I have no idea if they're accurate or not without doing my thing and digging into them. And that's the other part that annoys me - it takes TIME to dig into this stuff, whether to verify or disprove (and I honestly try to be neutral), but I have other crap to take care of.

It's like with "news" reporters and politicians. They're always making these claims in grave and authoritative or fear-mongering tones and I'm sitting there thinking, "JAY-zuz! REALLY?" so I go look stuff up and run some numbers so I can get a sense of proportion and perspective. And, of course, 99% of the time*, those news people and poiticos are just unloading another pile of stinky crap (*NOT a verifiable percentage). You'd think that the newspeople, with all their resources would have the professional courtesy to actually do this kind of thing FOR us, BEFORE they open their mouths and pass along pure cant. But, y'know, it's a caveat emptor world. Always has been.

Generally speaking, folks on this board are much, MUCH better about this (yet another unverifiable pseudo-quantification). But still, it's often worth looking a little deeper. So, I did.

I started by listing the sack leaders for the past decade, noting their draft position and, because it was there, recording total team sacks and how their team finished in those years. Yeah, I'm not close to done yet. But I have some preliminary results that seemed worth reporting.

-------------------

Eliminating one-year-wonders that might skew things, this is the list of guys (regardless of position) who've appeared among the sack leaders multiple years.

PLAYER / DRAFT POS# / Appearances among leaders

Mario Williams - #1 - 2
Julius Peppers - #2 - 5
Simeon Rice - #3 - 4
Andre Carter - #7 - 2
Terrell Suggs - #10 - 2
Dwight Freeney - #11 - 4
DeMarcus Ware - #11 - 5
Shaun Ellis - #12 - 2
Shawn Merriman - #12 - 2
John Abraham - #13 - 3

At this point, things start to get "disjointed", not to say, weird. So, I decided to throw back in a couple recent draftees who haven't really had a shot at multiple appearances yet (still leaving out those guys whose careers were pretty much over by 2001). It didn't really help, as you'll see shortly.

Orakpo - #13 - 1
Matthews - #26 - 1

Patrick Kerney - #30 - 3
Michael Strahan - #40 - 4
Aaron Schobel - #46 - 3
Lamarr Woodley - #46 - 3
Osi Umenyiora - #56 - 3
Leonard Little - #65 - 4
Jason Taylor - #73 - 4
Justin Tuck - #74 - 2
Bertrand Berry - #86 - 2
Shaun Phillips - #98 - 2
Jared Allen - #126 - 5
Elvis Dumervil - #126 - 2
**** Mathis - #138 - 3
Trent Cole - #146 - 2
KGB - #149 - 3 (If you don't know who "KGB" is, I'm not going to spell it out for you. Because I can't.)
Rod Coleman - #153 - 2
Aaron Kampmann - #156 - 3
James Harrison - UDFA - 2
Cameron Wake - UDFA - 1

So, WTF happens between #13 and #30? Going back to the "one-year-wonder" list, there are six guys total, including Matthews, selected between #13 and #30. Three more between #30 and #40. Still very thin at those spots.

Beyond that, it breaks down like this
- Top FIVE: 3 guys, 11 appearances
- Top TEN (tot): 5 guys, 15 appearances
- Top 15 (tot): 12 guys, 32 appearances
- (ahem)
- four 2nd-rounders, 13 appearances
- yadda, yadda (technical term used by data analysts to mean, "Meh.")

So, recognizing that this is possibly distorted by "player era", I need to go back and include "year drafted." S'okay. I was going back to the store anyway.... BECAUSE, for instance, there needs to be some weighting done to distinguish between, say, Carter - who's had 3 seasons of 9+ sacks in an 10-yr career - and, Mathis - who's had 6 seasons of 9+ sacks in an 8-yr career. There's also year-by-year pass defense to tie in somewhere.

Anywho, here's another (possible) trend I noticed and need to follow up on. It seems as if, no matter how many sacks one of these guys gets in a given season or how many times he's on the list, the lower his percentage of TOTAL TEAM SACKS, the better the team fares in terms of W/L record and post-season wins for that year. There seems to be a turning point somewhere between 30% and 40%. E.g., Allen gets 42% of teams sacks (15.5), the team goes 4-12; he gets 32% (14.5), the team goes 12-4 and wins a playoff game. Or, Peppers gets 34% (10.5), the team goes 8-8; he gets 24% (8), the team goes 11-5 and wins a playoff game.

This seems a GENERAL trend and there are exceptions, but I'll follow up.

Might be important to note a couple of things at this juncture.
- The Pats have had a guy among the sack leaders only once in the past decade - Vrabel, 2007 (12.5).
- Pats "sack leaders" over the years have represented a very low % of total sacks:

(SB) 2001 - Hamilton - 7 = 18%
---- 2002 - Seymour (or McGinest) - 5.5 = 17%
(SB) 2003 - Vrabel - 9.5 = 23%
(SB) 2004 - McGinest - 9.5 = 21%
---- 2005 - Colvin - 7 = 21%
(AFCCG) 2006 - Colvin - 8.5 = 19%
(SBL) 2007 - Vrabel - 12.5 = 27%
---- 2008 - Seymour - 8 = 27%
---- 2009 - TBC - 10 = 32%
---- 2010 - Wright - 5.5 = 15%

That's why I'm compelled to play the "what-if" game WRT the 2010 season. We had 20% more sacks than in 2008-09 and yet a much broader distribution that was also more like the earlier Superbowl years. If Ty Warren had been able to play.....if Mike Wright had been able to stick around.....

Superb analysis. BB emphasizes "Bend don't Break" Defenses. He wants the defense to come up with plays from many sources, so no particular player can be overused, and/or his attacking tendencies taken advantge of. The new-comers, as youngsters WILL get better; and DID SO before our very eyes last season.

Don't forget we beat every one of the League's Iron, in both Conferences last season. So we were not dominated by anybody, including both Superbowl contestants. But the Jets did manage to win two out of three against us, as they shot thier wad with last year's aging FA imports.

Ellis and Pace had good, not great years, and the three score and ten or more years of age between them will lead soon, to their demise. I don't see the Jets with a lot of rising youngsters, except if Gholston suddenly "gets it", or is he cut already?

Belichick would rather have 5 good players and no All Pros, as opposed to those who demand one Superstar, and accept that they can afford to carry only four scrub ciphers, in a capped league. He has also proved he will consistently win out and dominate with a strategy of "no holes" and lots of just good, and above average players.

I question whether the Pats in the BB Superbowl years ever had more than 50 sack. I know they never had a 60 or 70 sack season. I suspect their best sack year might have been around 45, but typically around 40. Not too far from where they ended up last season.

 

[MaineMan]

Superb analysis. BB emphasizes "Bend don't Break" Defenses. He wants the defense to come up with plays from many sources, so no particular player can be overused, and/or his attacking tendencies taken advantge of. The new-comers, as youngsters WILL get better; and DID SO before our very eyes last season.

Don't forget we beat every one of the League's Iron, in both Conferences last season. So we were not dominated by anybody, including both Superbowl contestants. But the Jets did manage to win two out of three against us, as they shot thier wad with last year's aging FA imports.

Ellis and Pace had good, not great years, and the three score and ten or more years of age between them will lead soon, to their demise. I don't see the Jets with a lot of rising youngsters, except if Gholston suddenly "gets it", or is he cut already?

Belichick would rather have 5 good players and no All Pros, as opposed to those who demand one Superstar, and accept that they can afford to carry only four scrub ciphers, in a capped league. He has also proved he will consistently win out and dominate with a strategy of "no holes" and lots of just good, and above average players.

I question whether the Pats in the BB Superbowl years ever had more than 50 sack. I know they never had a 60 or 70 sack season. I suspect their best sack year might have been around 45, but typically around 40. Not too far from where they ended up last season.

Thanks.

It was 46, actually, in 2007. We had 44 in 2006, 45 in 2004 , 41 in 2003 and 39 in 2001. And 36 in 2010 with our crappiest D-line in a decade.

 

[mcsully]

Thanks.

It was 46, actually, in 2007. We had 44 in 2006, 45 in 2004 , 41 in 2003 and 39 in 2001. And 36 in 2010 with our crappiest D-line in a decade.

Thi is why stats make me laugh.. 07 defense wasn't as nearly as good as 04 and 05.. 07 had the advantage of pinning their ears back and going after the QB




Bottom line, we need a couple of guys to get to the QB.. I've yet to see someone explain why targeting players and moving up is a bad idea.