ELITE PASS-RUSHERS, Over-analyzed

[jukes]

uhm... last time I checked the packers had ryan pickett and howard green as their defensive ends and clay matthews was still a beast. I don't know about you but I don't exactly consider ryan pickett or howard green as guys who clear the way for Matthews. Try again bro.

i'm talking about guys like raiji and cullen jenkins and pickett, if u look at the play in the superbowl it was actually picket who helped clay get that fumble.

 

[NePatriots]

uhm... last time I checked the packers had ryan pickett and howard green as their defensive ends and clay matthews was still a beast. I don't know about you but I don't exactly consider ryan pickett or howard green as guys who clear the way for Matthews. Try again bro.

11 guys play on defense in the NFL.

 

[jukes]

I'd give an arm and a leg for a guy like cullen jenkins on our team, we would have a very talented dline

 

[woolster22]

Fair enough.. And while I understand your point and see where you are aiming. I just feel from my point of view we've turned over the roster in two short years. During this time, we've been able to add youth, talent and clean up our salary cap (not that it was in bad shape.. but tough decisions were made.. ie Seymour)..

My only point is, we've add 24 picks in the past two years and our defense looks fairly talented in a lot of different areas. But the two glaring areas we are lacking is RDE and OLB. Two key positions regarding pass rush. Instead of adding another 10 guys, of a vast majority won't start, why not add 7 and fill in the two glaring holes.

Its funny how I asked in two seperate occasssions, who would you want more "Ware or Orland Pace".. And I have yet to receive a response.. The truth is, people know how this team is currently constructed and a LT is not as benefical as a pass rushing LB.. BB has proven this time and again by throwing money and draft picks at the position (Colvin, A. Thomas and Burgess). I think people (not saying you Maine), are trying to justify BB reasoning.. And as I, he is not perfect and has made multiple mistakes in this area..

While I love BB coaching style and am glad to have him with our team (hopefully another 10 years), sometimes you need to change things up and take a different approach..

**edit* -- was going to finish but had to add this

In the past 4 years, the Jets and Packers have been able to identify positions of need and address them by moving up in the draft.. Its worked for them, why not for us? I am totally confident in our scouting department..

I'll take Ware every time. Offense wins games, defense wins championships. Still can't believe we got out BB'd in 07...:bricks:

 

[Sciz]

uhm... last time I checked the packers had ryan pickett and howard green as their defensive ends and clay matthews was still a beast. I don't know about you but I don't exactly consider ryan pickett or howard green as guys who clear the way for Matthews. Try again bro.

If anything, it was the Packers' secondary that was helping Matthews out, not his DL. For the most part, teams knew he was coming. It was just a matter of getting the ball out before he got there, which is easier said than done when all the receivers are blanketed, even when the DL are only taking up one blocker.

 

[manxman2601]

Does everyone know about the Sackseer projection system? It was an attempt at Football Outsiders to project college pass rushers to the NFL. I'm not sure how accurate it is as a system but I wonder whether anything can be learned about the current crop of prospects. Unfortunately, being a newbie, I'm not allowed to provide a link but I'll try and summarise.

The author of the report found that generally there were four measures that, when combined, suggested a successful conversion to a an NFL pass rusher. These are:

1. No of sacks per game in college (the more the better obviously)
2. The length of time played in College
3. The short shuttle time at the Combine. As the author writes, "No elite edge rusher has emerged from any round of the NFL Draft since at least 1999 with a short shuttle slower than 4.42 seconds."


4. The Vertical leap at the combine.

Some caveats. The author points out that the system only applies to those prospects at the top end of the draft and is more useful in projecting potential busts than potential stars.

Looking at the combine stats, this may not be the best bunch to project as pass rushers:

Ryan Kerrigan - Obviously matches well with the first two metrics but only an OK short shuttle (4.39) and vertical leap (33.5)


Jabal Sheard - Ran a 4.65 short shuttle at his pro day which (see above) could be a big red flag

Brooks Reed - Good short shuttle (4.28), but poor vertical leap (30.5)

Aldon Smith - Fairly good vertical leap (34.0) but a poor 4.5 short shuttle (4.5)

Sam Acho - OK in both short shuttle (4.32) and vertical leap (33.5)

Ricky Elmore - Short shuttle (4.32), VL (31.5)

Akeem Ayers - Good short shuttle (4.28), OK vertical leap (31.0)*

Justin Houston - Pretty consistent (SS: 4.37, VL: 36.5)

Von Miller - Will probably be an elite pass rusher (SS: 4.06, VL: 37.0)

One name stands out head and shoulders ahead of the above (except Von Miller)**:

JJ Watt - (SS: 4.21, VL: 37.0)

Some comparisons

Demarcus Ware (SS: 4.07, VL: 38.5)
Brian Orapko (SS: 4.45, VL: 39.5)
Clay Matthews (SS: 4.18, VL: 35.5)

I cannot make a judgement on how reliable these metrics are as a predictor of future sack success. But if they are, with the possible exceptions of Moch, Kerrigan, Houston, Ayers and Miller, this is an unexceptional bunch of OLB's. I'm not yet fully in the JJ Watt camp. The only full game I saw him play was in the Rose Bowl against TCU and I thought they made him look foolish as they exploited his gap penetration, but if these two combine metrics are a useful predictor, maybe he should get more consideration.


*Ayers boosted his vertical leap to 34.5 at his pro day.
** Dontay Moch had an OK short shuttle (4.38) but the best vertical leap of them all (42.0)



FWIW

**Edit** Speaking from the perspective of a Lions fan, the author of the report is not as down on this crop as I am:

Most definitely. I'm saving the projections themselves for an updated article, but suffice it to say that Von Miller looks like a stud, Watt looks like he has serious potential as a 4-3 end (even though he might ultimately be a 3-4 end), and that in general this class looks much better than last year's. Also, there's not a lot of good sleepers at the position in this draft. The Lions should either take one early or leave the position alone. I would obviously be very pleased with Watt.

 

[Off The Grid]

Yeah, I like SackSeer. Here's the Link:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing SackSEER

I'm also a big fan of Pat Kirwan's Explosion Index:

The Huddle Report - NFL Draft Research and Analysis

For my money, you can drop the Broad Jump from that: If your Vertical and Bench Reps add up to 60, that's a good indication that you can get after it.

Needless to say, Justin Watt, my Super Binky, JACKED the Explosion Index.

Some Numbers ~ Target is 60 for Adjusted Kirwan Index

Justin Watt ~ 34 + 37 ~ 71 ~ INSANE.
Phil Taylor ~ 31 + 30 ~ 60 ~ RIDICULOUS at his size.
Brooks Reed ~ 30 + 30 ~ 60
D'Aundre Reed ~ 30 + 36 ~ 66!! Reed's mate!! Pat Chick's find!!
Ryan Kerrigan ~ 31 + 34 ~ 65

 

[MaineMan]

Totally agree, vrabel consistently brought pressure to the quarterback as did McGinest. Cunningham was not highly thought of as a great pass rusher coming out of college anyways so we cannot depend on him to take a big leap forward and become our best pass rusher, he just doesn't have a great set of pass rushing skills. Ninkovich while probably make a few lucky plays bfor himself every now and then, but let's face it, he's a mediocre starter, should be a backup and has probably less pass rushing talent than Cunningham. Banta-Cain took a big step down as well and was not nearly a disruptive pass rusher as he was last year. There's only really a couple of guys on this roster who have great pass rushing talent, one being eric moore. It's not just about the pass rushing either, Vrabel and McGinest were both team leaders ad nobody on this defense has stepped up yet to become the leader and they need another scrappy pass rushing, high energy guy to lead this defense and give it some life. Mayo has been around for a few years and has just not stepped up as the leader of this defense.

I've heard this before about Ninkovich, especially in comparison to Vrabel. And yet Ninkovich, at age 26 in 2010, put up identical stats to what Vrabel did at age 26 in 2001 - except that Ninkovich had one more sack and two fewer starts.

Vrabel came into his age 26 season with four years experience as a regular sub-rusher in the Steelers' 3-4. Ninkovich entered 2010 with one year's experience as a sub-rusher with the Pats preceded by 3 years getting very little playing time as a reserve DE/special teamer with NOL and MIA.

Vrabel was playing with a very strong, veteran D-line and veteran McGinest on the other side. Ninkovich was playing with the weakest D-line the Pats have fielded in BB's tenure and a rookie on the other side.

ATC, folks who are saying Ninkovich is crap based on his 2010 performance, probably would have been saying the same back in 2002 about Vrabel's 2001 performance. Good thing BB doesn't listen to us.

 

[MaineMan]

I do believe you'll be proven to be a prophetic soul -- post draft.

Also, MM - BB has stated that from a gameplan perspective, having two OLBs (left and right) with similar skillsets is his preferred roster of choice. Each one able to set the edge, with a dose of pass rush ability. If one side of his D was weaker than the other, the opposition would gameplan vs the weaker side. This is why we probably won't see one-dimensional pass rushers donning a Pats uni, as he wants them (the OLBs) to be balanced players. His thoughts are similar with the two TE offense, preferring two TEs who can block and catch.

Agree entirely. Strength across the board up front, especially against the run, enables pressure (and coverage) to come from anywhere, anytime without allowing the opposing offense to key on any ONE guy every time.

 

[MaineMan]

I agree, there's plenty of run-stuffing types on the roster now with the impending return of Ty Warren, Brace, and the addition of Stroud.

But how about 4 down players? I think that's the term BB used when he was speaking about why he wanted McCourty in last year's draft. I think Watt can fill that criteria. Does he need a little filling out and coaching so he gets stronger against the run? Sure. But as a final product I think he has the ability to be that 3 down or even 4 down lineman (he can block kicks with his length and vertical). And getting after the QB, that he can do with a variety of moves on passing downs.

But I don't know if he lasts till 17. There are some that say Dallas will take Watt at 9, but I think that's a smokescreen. Dallas needs DB help badly so I don't see them passing on Amakamura unless he gets taken top 8 somehow.

The scenario I see is the Pats trading up to 13 for a 3rd round pick with Detroit to secure Watt. Then moving down from 28 and picking a quality player in the 2nd round, perhaps an OL or OLB, as well as stockpiling a future pick for 2012.

Don't know that I'd necessarily call Brace a "run-stuffer". He wasn't much of one in 2010. But then, I see him as more of an "in the phone booth" guy who was playing out of position at DE were he had more area to deal with. Similar with G. Warren, which is why he got kicked inside most of the time with Wilfork at DE ( who was very good, but not his optimal position). Basically, the D-line, anywhere Wilfork wasn't, didn't stuff much of anything.

Stroud, I think, is going to be interesting. He may be one of those players that BB has "long admired from afar" but hadn't been able to acquire until now. Stroud is a solid veteran who's never missed much time to injury and appears to have some leadership qualities that could help a young team. WRT his supposed "failing to adjust" to BUF's move to the 3-4, he still out-performed G. Warren and didn't have to be kicked inside. I think it was more Stroud's contract - IIRC, he was due something around $8M for 2011 - and the Bills may well have re-signed him had BB not swooped in. Stroud also has a bit more length and less heft that G. Warren, so seems more BB-prototypical at LDE.

I still think Stroud is scheduled to be a reserve/insurance policy, but perhaps a "high-use" one, at least in the early stages of the season while a rookie adjusts/develops and Ty Warren re-adjusts. So, we may see a lot of him and I think we'll be happy about it as he should do a much better job of fortifying the 30-front than G. Warren was capable of.

 

[MaineMan]

Does everyone know about the Sackseer projection system? It was an attempt at Football Outsiders to project college pass rushers to the NFL. I'm not sure how accurate it is as a system but I wonder whether anything can be learned about the current crop of prospects. Unfortunately, being a newbie, I'm not allowed to provide a link but I'll try and summarise.

The author of the report found that generally there were four measures that, when combined, suggested a successful conversion to a an NFL pass rusher. These are:

1. No of sacks per game in college (the more the better obviously)
2. The length of time played in College
3. The short shuttle time at the Combine. As the author writes, "No elite edge rusher has emerged from any round of the NFL Draft since at least 1999 with a short shuttle slower than 4.42 seconds."


4. The Vertical leap at the combine.

Some caveats. The author points out that the system only applies to those prospects at the top end of the draft and is more useful in projecting potential busts than potential stars.

Looking at the combine stats, this may not be the best bunch to project as pass rushers:

Ryan Kerrigan - Obviously matches well with the first two metrics but only an OK short shuttle (4.39) and vertical leap (33.5)


Jabal Sheard - Ran a 4.65 short shuttle at his pro day which (see above) could be a big red flag

Brooks Reed - Good short shuttle (4.28), but poor vertical leap (30.5)

Aldon Smith - Fairly good vertical leap (34.0) but a poor 4.5 short shuttle (4.5)

Sam Acho - OK in both short shuttle (4.32) and vertical leap (33.5)

Ricky Elmore - Short shuttle (4.32), VL (31.5)

Akeem Ayers - Good short shuttle (4.28), OK vertical leap (31.0)*

Justin Houston - Pretty consistent (SS: 4.37, VL: 36.5)

Von Miller - Will probably be an elite pass rusher (SS: 4.06, VL: 37.0)

One name stands out head and shoulders ahead of the above (except Von Miller)**:

JJ Watt - (SS: 4.21, VL: 37.0)

Some comparisons

Demarcus Ware (SS: 4.07, VL: 38.5)
Brian Orapko (SS: 4.45, VL: 39.5)
Clay Matthews (SS: 4.18, VL: 35.5)

I cannot make a judgement on how reliable these metrics are as a predictor of future sack success. But if they are, with the possible exceptions of Moch, Kerrigan, Houston, Ayers and Miller, this is an unexceptional bunch of OLB's. I'm not yet fully in the JJ Watt camp. The only full game I saw him play was in the Rose Bowl against TCU and I thought they made him look foolish as they exploited his gap penetration, but if these two combine metrics are a useful predictor, maybe he should get more consideration.


*Ayers boosted his vertical leap to 34.5 at his pro day.
** Dontay Moch had an OK short shuttle (4.38) but the best vertical leap of them all (42.0)



FWIW

**Edit** Speaking from the perspective of a Lions fan, the author of the report is not as down on this crop as I am:

That may well be true in terms of these guys being primarily edge-rushers who are appropriate for most systems. But I don't think BB is looking exclusively - or even primarily - at this for OLBs in his scheme.

 

[MaineMan]

I'm not sure whether these are the exact claims that have been made, but you're probably right. I'll certainly take your word for it. But maybe it's fair to say that this team just needs to improve the pass rush, which does not necessarily mean getting an elite pass rusher.

And when it comes to improving the pass rush, there are 2 areas of need IMO:

First, the 3rd down "specialists" are far from special. Pryor doesn't get to the QB much. The jury's out on Moore, but before him there certainly wasn't anyone to speak of. Wright is a good sub rusher, but his future is in doubt now. TBC is someone I'm OK with in that role. So the upgrade shouldn't be so hard - replace Wright, upgrade Pryor and Moore. The better players we get, the better the 3rd down D will be, but "elite" is not even in the vocabulary here.

Second, we need a better pass rush on 1st and 2nd downs. Our base D has a lot of good run stoppers who are not good at getting to the QB - Brace, Wilfork, Cunningham, Warren, Love, Nink. The solution here is much more difficult - we need to get some players who are good against both the pass and the run. This is the area where guys like Vrabel, Seymour, McGinnest were eilte. Of course the added benefit to this is these guys area all 3 down players and will improve your 3rd down defense as well. That's the kind of players I think we need to be getting even if it means moving up.

Seems to me that, under BB, the Pats have always had a utility DL or two on the roster who ended up contributing as a "specialist" situational sub-rusher after 2-4 years of development. IIRC, neither Green nor Wright really had more than a sack or two per season until their 3rd/4th years. I think Pryor and Deaderick are guys intended for a similar career on BB's roster. If they don't come along fast enough or have "other issues" (Deaderick), he can cut them without losing much investment and just pick up another late-rounder.

Vrabel, Seymour and McGinest WERE elite. Seymour was elite more or less from the get-go. McGinest was an established elite veteran when BB inherited him, but Vrabel became elite as time went by. As for the run-stoppers - that's really where every defender starts in BB's system. Brace and Love, like Wilfork, are primarily interior guys whose job is more to tie up blockers and stop runs up the middle than to apply significant pressure. Cunningham and Nink were both effectively 1st-year guys playing with an overall weak D-line (and Nink still performed as well as Vrabel did at a very similar stage in his career).

 

[manxman2601]

That may well be true in terms of these guys being primarily edge-rushers who are appropriate for most systems. But I don't think BB is looking exclusively - or even primarily - at this for OLBs in his scheme.

I agree, which is why I'm less keen on making the edge rushers part of the equation. Of the aforementioned, only Kerrigan is high on my board because he strikes me as a Patriot type player (high energy and commitment, forces fumbles). I would much rather we get one or two elite level players on either side of the ball to turn this team from playoff also ran into a superbowl winning team.

I don't have a 'big board' as such, but if I did, the top of it would look something like this:

Almost certainly unavailable but would be prepared to trade up in to the #8,9,10 range:

1. Marcell Dareus
2. Von Miller
3. AJ Green
4. Patrick Peterson

Players I'd be prepared to trade up in to the early teens for:

1. Robert Quinn
2. JJ Watt
3. Ryan Kerrigan
4. Prince Amukamara

Players I'd be prepared to take at #17 but wouldn't like to see a trade up for:

1. Cameron Jordan
2. Julio Jones
3. Tyron Smith

Trade down from #17 to take

1. Muhammad Wilkerson
2. Mike Pouncey
3. Mark Ingram

@28

1. Cameron Heyward
2. Ben Ijalana
3. Nate Solder



I'd work to that order, providing of course that the price on a trade is right. Those are the players Id be happy taking in round one, those not on the list (like Bowers, Aldon Smith) I'd be reserving judgement. Other than my list, I'd be looking to trade down for longer term high upside prospects like Allen Bailey, trading in to next year or filling out gaps with quality JAGs like Jarvis Jenkins, Rahim Moore or Clint Boling.

**Edit** I should add that these are the only players I think will make the Pats considerably better in '12 or '13. I'm conflicted about Costanzo and Carimi who aren't on the above list. I prefer the upside of Tyron Smith or Ijalana.

 

[tricktak]

i'm talking about guys like raiji and cullen jenkins and pickett, if u look at the play in the superbowl it was actually picket who helped clay get that fumble.

cullen jenkins didn't even play last year.

 

[MaineMan]

cullen jenkins didn't even play last year.

Jenkins appeared in 11 games and started 8 in 2010 (he was hampered by wrist and ankle injuries, IIRC). He ended up with 7 sacks, second only to Matthews.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I have seen elite offenses without a an elite running back. Or without an elite wide receiver. Or without an elite left tackle. Or without an elite tight end.

I have seen elite defensive without an elite defensive tackle. Or without an elite linebacker. Or without an elite cornerback. Or without an elite pass rusher.

Unless you are talking about the QB position, there is much more to offense and/or defensive units than one part. We are talking about 1/11th of the players out there.

In the draft:

Take the best 3-4 defensive player available with the first three picks.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I have seen elite offenses without a an elite running back. Or without an elite wide receiver. Or without an elite left tackle. Or without an elite tight end.

I have seen elite defensive without an elite defensive tackle. Or without an elite linebacker. Or without an elite cornerback. Or without an elite pass rusher.

Unless you are talking about the QB position, there is much more to offense and/or defensive units than one part. We are talking about 1/11th of the players out there.

In the draft:

Take the best 3-4 defensive player available with the first three picks.

And who would those players be according to you?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We've all heard the claims.

"We need an elite pass-rusher or we'll never make it back to the Superbowl!"

"If only we had an elite pass-rusher like McGinest again!"

"We NEED to stop screwing around and trade UP this time to get an elite pass-rusher!"

Such claims annoy me partly because, hell, I have no idea if they're accurate or not without doing my thing and digging into them. And that's the other part that annoys me - it takes TIME to dig into this stuff, whether to verify or disprove (and I honestly try to be neutral), but I have other crap to take care of.

It's like with "news" reporters and politicians. They're always making these claims in grave and authoritative or fear-mongering tones and I'm sitting there thinking, "JAY-zuz! REALLY?" so I go look stuff up and run some numbers so I can get a sense of proportion and perspective. And, of course, 99% of the time*, those news people and poiticos are just unloading another pile of stinky crap (*NOT a verifiable percentage). You'd think that the newspeople, with all their resources would have the professional courtesy to actually do this kind of thing FOR us, BEFORE they open their mouths and pass along pure cant. But, y'know, it's a caveat emptor world. Always has been.

Generally speaking, folks on this board are much, MUCH better about this (yet another unverifiable pseudo-quantification). But still, it's often worth looking a little deeper. So, I did.

I started by listing the sack leaders for the past decade, noting their draft position and, because it was there, recording total team sacks and how their team finished in those years. Yeah, I'm not close to done yet. But I have some preliminary results that seemed worth reporting.

-------------------

Eliminating one-year-wonders that might skew things, this is the list of guys (regardless of position) who've appeared among the sack leaders multiple years.

PLAYER / DRAFT POS# / Appearances among leaders

Mario Williams - #1 - 2
Julius Peppers - #2 - 5
Simeon Rice - #3 - 4
Andre Carter - #7 - 2
Terrell Suggs - #10 - 2
Dwight Freeney - #11 - 4
DeMarcus Ware - #11 - 5
Shaun Ellis - #12 - 2
Shawn Merriman - #12 - 2
John Abraham - #13 - 3

At this point, things start to get "disjointed", not to say, weird. So, I decided to throw back in a couple recent draftees who haven't really had a shot at multiple appearances yet (still leaving out those guys whose careers were pretty much over by 2001). It didn't really help, as you'll see shortly.

Orakpo - #13 - 1
Matthews - #26 - 1

Patrick Kerney - #30 - 3
Michael Strahan - #40 - 4
Aaron Schobel - #46 - 3
Lamarr Woodley - #46 - 3
Osi Umenyiora - #56 - 3
Leonard Little - #65 - 4
Jason Taylor - #73 - 4
Justin Tuck - #74 - 2
Bertrand Berry - #86 - 2
Shaun Phillips - #98 - 2
Jared Allen - #126 - 5
Elvis Dumervil - #126 - 2
**** Mathis - #138 - 3
Trent Cole - #146 - 2
KGB - #149 - 3 (If you don't know who "KGB" is, I'm not going to spell it out for you. Because I can't.)
Rod Coleman - #153 - 2
Aaron Kampmann - #156 - 3
James Harrison - UDFA - 2
Cameron Wake - UDFA - 1

So, WTF happens between #13 and #30? Going back to the "one-year-wonder" list, there are six guys total, including Matthews, selected between #13 and #30. Three more between #30 and #40. Still very thin at those spots.

Beyond that, it breaks down like this
- Top FIVE: 3 guys, 11 appearances
- Top TEN (tot): 5 guys, 15 appearances
- Top 15 (tot): 12 guys, 32 appearances
- (ahem)
- four 2nd-rounders, 13 appearances
- yadda, yadda (technical term used by data analysts to mean, "Meh.")

So, recognizing that this is possibly distorted by "player era", I need to go back and include "year drafted." S'okay. I was going back to the store anyway.... BECAUSE, for instance, there needs to be some weighting done to distinguish between, say, Carter - who's had 3 seasons of 9+ sacks in an 10-yr career - and, Mathis - who's had 6 seasons of 9+ sacks in an 8-yr career. There's also year-by-year pass defense to tie in somewhere.

Anywho, here's another (possible) trend I noticed and need to follow up on. It seems as if, no matter how many sacks one of these guys gets in a given season or how many times he's on the list, the lower his percentage of TOTAL TEAM SACKS, the better the team fares in terms of W/L record and post-season wins for that year. There seems to be a turning point somewhere between 30% and 40%. E.g., Allen gets 42% of teams sacks (15.5), the team goes 4-12; he gets 32% (14.5), the team goes 12-4 and wins a playoff game. Or, Peppers gets 34% (10.5), the team goes 8-8; he gets 24% (8), the team goes 11-5 and wins a playoff game.

This seems a GENERAL trend and there are exceptions, but I'll follow up.

Might be important to note a couple of things at this juncture.
- The Pats have had a guy among the sack leaders only once in the past decade - Vrabel, 2007 (12.5).
- Pats "sack leaders" over the years have represented a very low % of total sacks:

(SB) 2001 - Hamilton - 7 = 18%
---- 2002 - Seymour (or McGinest) - 5.5 = 17%
(SB) 2003 - Vrabel - 9.5 = 23%
(SB) 2004 - McGinest - 9.5 = 21%
---- 2005 - Colvin - 7 = 21%
(AFCCG) 2006 - Colvin - 8.5 = 19%
(SBL) 2007 - Vrabel - 12.5 = 27%
---- 2008 - Seymour - 8 = 27%
---- 2009 - TBC - 10 = 32%
---- 2010 - Wright - 5.5 = 15%

That's why I'm compelled to play the "what-if" game WRT the 2010 season. We had 20% more sacks than in 2008-09 and yet a much broader distribution that was also more like the earlier Superbowl years. If Ty Warren had been able to play.....if Mike Wright had been able to stick around.....

There is more to a pass rush than a sack. In my mind a pass rush is the ability to disrupt the timing of the offense. Dice or slice the stats any way you'd like, the bottom line is in our loss to the Jets, Brady got happy feet and lost all sense of timing and patience. Meanwhile Sanchez had time for tea and caviar on a cracker while waiting for Jet receivers to come open in our secondary.

 

[MaineMan]

There is more to a pass rush than a sack. In my mind a pass rush is the ability to disrupt the timing of the offense. Dice or slice the stats any way you'd like, the bottom line is in our loss to the Jets, Brady got happy feet and lost all sense of timing and patience. Meanwhile Sanchez had time for tea and caviar on a cracker while waiting for Jet receivers to come open in our secondary.

Agreed. But, again, I think the root cause was D-line deficiencies. Aside from Wilfork, the D-line couldn't tie up blockers or stop the run. Aside from Mike Wright in sub-packages (not a great run-stopper himself), the D-line couldn't get much interior pressure. This had the effect of making the run a legitimate threat for LBs to cover, even under fairly ridiculous 3rd-and-long circumstances. In turn, play-action, especially by strong running teams like the Jets, became inordinately effective against us (also see the Browns game). THIS, in turn, took any potential "first step" advantage away from our pass-rushers and allowed opposition pass-pro schemes that extra half-beat to get well-set and more difficult to dislodge. No matter how great a guy's "first step" may be, if he has to hesitate even for a fraction of a second, it becomes largely irrelevant.

Getting back Ty Warren (healthy) at LDE, and adding a legitimate run-stopping, blocker-eating RDE who can also contribute some pressure on his own - would allow Wilfork to move back to the middle and should significantly reduce that run threat and the effectiveness of play-action. The domino effect should help our existing pass-rushers deploy whatever first step they have more often and to be more effective at getting that disruption, if not more sacks. This is a basic part of what the Jets were able to do against OUR offense and its relatively weak running threat.

 

[b72s]

I agree for the most part with maineman

It really is a system that requires people to do their "joB" not
produce individual stars

I always go back to Seymour a top pick and he was great here.

But in his prime in another system he may have got much higher Star stats aka sacks etc.

Gifted big men only come along once in a while so you need to address whether they can play in pats system and not a one trick pass rush pony. I think we will take a DE if we can

Someone said already top pick needs to be a 3 down player...I agree