Comparing Strength of Schedules

[Buchanty]

I was intrigued by the often stated notion that the Jags and Colts had the best chance to upset the Patriots run in the post season. The rationale behind such protestations most commonly has been strength of schedule. The AFC South is the strongest and the AFC East is the weakest is the popular refrain.

I can understand fans using this excuse to justify their homer opinions, but as more and more pundits seemed to be reflecting the same thoughts and opinions, including bestowing the honorable title of "team to fear most in the playoffs" on the Jags, I felt compelled to review the statistics one more time.

Certainly the AFC South has the best win loss record for the season, however the AFC East is by no means the weakest:

1. AFC South 42-22
2. NFC East 40-24
3. NFC North 35-29
4. AFC North 32-32
5. AFC East 28-36
6. NFC South 27-37
7T NFC West 26-38
7T AFC West 26-38

Admittedly the AFC East is only 2 games better than the worst (interesting enough both west coast divisions).

The biggest nag in my mind has been the belief by some that the Patriots benefitted from a weak division and the "gift" of 6 easy games. For some reason the 6 easy games were used to offset the 7 games against quality opposition (thank you CHFF). I guess it is easy to ignore data that contradicts the sound bytes. Anyway this strange logic got me curious to find out what other easy games were faced by the Pats and just as importantly the Jags and Colts.

Not that I need to remind everyone but the schedule for the AFC East brought them up against the NFC East and the AFC North, while the AFC South met the NFC South and the AFC West.

Well needless to say the Pats met 8 teams with a collective record of 72-56, which more or less reflects the CHFF Quality Wins stats. But what was more revealing was the fact the the two playoff teams from the AFC South were the beneficiaries of a much easier schedule against teams with a collective record of 53-75. In another thread I contended that the Bills could have beaten the Titans and no doubt if they had played in the AFC South they too would have had a winning record.

Of the remaining games (2 games against 2006 AFC division counterparts) the Colts beat Baltimore but lost to NE, and the Jags beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Ignoring the intra-divisional games the Colts record against quality teams is less than stellar at 1-2, while the Jags had a very respectable 3-0.

I just thought the message board might be interested to learn that the biggest beneficiaries of a soft schedule appear to be the AFC South not the East.

PS the Colts ended up 4-3 in the CHFF Quality Standing, which might be OK for home games but not for a post season run (unless its with happy feet).

 

[mgcolby]

I made the same exact point on the Jags board, 7 of the Jaguars wins came against those two terrible divisions. Ironically the Jags were 2-4 within their division.

But overall the Jags and Patriots had a lot of similarities between their schedules.

 

[alamo]

Certainly the AFC South has the best win loss record for the season, however the AFC East is by no means the weakest:

1. AFC South 42-22
2. NFC East 40-24
3. NFC North 35-29
4. AFC North 32-32
5. AFC East 28-36
6. NFC South 27-37
7T NFC West 26-38
7T AFC West 26-38

It's meaningless to evaluate division strength for a particular team without removing their own record. Removing NE shows the AFC East at only 12-36, which is much much easier than JAX's adjusted 31-17.

But I believe the much more important metric is record against quality teams, and the Pats have had much more success there compared to the Jags. And if anything the easier division for the Pats translates into some easier games (and presumably less wear and tear, though that's by no means a direct correlation).

 

[Buchanty]

It's meaningless to evaluate division strength for a particular team without removing their own record. Removing NE shows the AFC East at only 12-36, which is much much easier than JAX's adjusted 31-17.

But I believe the much more important metric is record against quality teams, and the Pats have had much more success there compared to the Jags. And if anything the easier division for the Pats translates into some easier games (and presumably less wear and tear, though that's by no means a direct correlation).

I agree that the record against quality teams is more important, and had acknowledged as much in my reference to CHFF. Yet many people ignore these stats preferring to concentrate on strength of schedule which includes divisional play. So in playing that strength of schedule game I did acknowledge that the AFC East is much easier than the AFC South (ie record with adjustments). However that is only for 6 games. If strength of schedule is to be used as an argument then the relative strength of the other divisions played should be taken into consideration especially since it covers 8 games, or to put it another way - half the season schedule.

Either way quality wins or strength of schedule the Jags dont compare.

 

[C'est La Vie]

I was intrigued by the often stated notion that the Jags and Colts had the best chance to upset the Patriots run in the post season. The rationale behind such protestations most commonly has been strength of schedule. The AFC South is the strongest and the AFC East is the weakest is the popular refrain.

I can understand fans using this excuse to justify their homer opinions, but as more and more pundits seemed to be reflecting the same thoughts and opinions, including bestowing the honorable title of "team to fear most in the playoffs" on the Jags, I felt compelled to review the statistics one more time.

Certainly the AFC South has the best win loss record for the season, however the AFC East is by no means the weakest:

1. AFC South 42-22
2. NFC East 40-24
3. NFC North 35-29
4. AFC North 32-32
5. AFC East 28-36
6. NFC South 27-37
7T NFC West 26-38
7T AFC West 26-38

Admittedly the AFC East is only 2 games better than the worst (interesting enough both west coast divisions).

The biggest nag in my mind has been the belief by some that the Patriots benefitted from a weak division and the "gift" of 6 easy games. For some reason the 6 easy games were used to offset the 7 games against quality opposition (thank you CHFF). I guess it is easy to ignore data that contradicts the sound bytes. Anyway this strange logic got me curious to find out what other easy games were faced by the Pats and just as importantly the Jags and Colts.

Not that I need to remind everyone but the schedule for the AFC East brought them up against the NFC East and the AFC North, while the AFC South met the NFC South and the AFC West.

Well needless to say the Pats met 8 teams with a collective record of 72-56, which more or less reflects the CHFF Quality Wins stats. But what was more revealing was the fact the the two playoff teams from the AFC South were the beneficiaries of a much easier schedule against teams with a collective record of 53-75. In another thread I contended that the Bills could have beaten the Titans and no doubt if they had played in the AFC South they too would have had a winning record.

Of the remaining games (2 games against 2006 AFC division counterparts) the Colts beat Baltimore but lost to NE, and the Jags beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Ignoring the intra-divisional games the Colts record against quality teams is less than stellar at 1-2, while the Jags had a very respectable 3-0.

I just thought the message board might be interested to learn that the biggest beneficiaries of a soft schedule appear to be the AFC South not the East.

PS the Colts ended up 4-3 in the CHFF Quality Standing, which might be OK for home games but not for a post season run (unless its with happy feet).

Each AFC South member has a more difficult SOS than the Pats. This according to Sagarin. The obvious reason is the two very weak teams in the Fins and Jets. IIRC, South went 3-1 Vs. East. No matter, it is close enough that it's a toss up. Colts are 6-3 against top 16 BTW.

What are you sayine here? Last season, when the Colts went through the NFC East, it was an "easy schedule". Yet this season, it's a death march. None of this really has much bearing on the final eight, IMO. They all played 16+ games against NFL competition. No one will be taken by surprise by their opponent.

 

[KCSVEN]

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs the record for Pats and Jax

Jax: 3-3 L's: Indy twice, Tennessee, Wins: Tampa, Ten, Pit
PATS: 6-0: W: S.D., Dal, Was, Indy, Pitt, NYG PLUS they beat Cleveland who lost on tiebreaker for playoffs

Record against the final 8(or the other 7):
Pats: 4-0: San Diego, Indy, Dallas, Giants
Jax: 1-2: losses to Colts, WIN SD(EDITED FOR SD WIN)

It's clear the Pats schedule was much harder, people get confused because the mediocre Titans and Houston make people think it was some great division. Buffalo was equal to Houston, also Jax was not great in their division and they got to play the really weak NFC South while the Pats played the NFC East, Miami and the Jets skewer these statistical evaluations of SOS but it's clear from above the Pats played more games against upper enchelon teams and were successful, The Jax played 1 team in the top 8 in the league and lost both times.

IF the Pats beat Jax, Indy and then Seattle or Green Bay they will have beaten 8 of the 11 other playoff teams and 6 of the other 7 top 8 playoff teams. There schedule was WAY harder than Jax and it's not even close and if they run the table they will likely have done so with one of the hardest post-season schedules as well.

 

[mgcolby]

NE:

vs 10 win teams 5-0

vs teams with a winning record 7-0

vs playoff teams 6-0 (would have been 7-0 if Indy didn't let the Titans in)

vs division winners 4-0



Jax:

vs 10 win teams 3-3

vs teams with a winning record 4-3

vs playoff teams 4-3 (thanks to Indy letting the Titans in) otherwise 3-2

vs division winners 3-0 (excluding Indy 3-2 if you include them, NE can't play themselves)

It would appear that the teams played a fairly even schedule when you look at the particulars.

The overall records of opponents

NE: 120-136

Jax: 132-124

Miami obviously had a significant impact on the numbers for NE, as did Indy for Jax.

The majority of the wins that Hou and Jax had were against the two weak divisions.

Houston was 6-2 against the AFC West and NFC South.

Jax was 7-1 against the AFC West and NFC South and 2-4 against their division.

Ten (5-3) was the anomaly. They were 4-2 within their division and split the Jets and Bengals games.

 

[patriotshomer]

I am new to this forum however I have been lurking for a few years. I could not help but reply to this thread. I looked at the SOS a few weeks ago and sorted out the SOS for non-divisional oppenents. I felt the Patriots were not getting the right amount of credit when it comes to the SOS due to the week AFC EAST.

In no particular order

Non-Divisional Oppenents SOS
SD 98 - 62
New England 96 - 64
GB 76 - 84
Indy 74 - 86
Dallas 73 - 87
Jax 70 - 90
Ten 64 - 96

 

[Bostonian1962]

I was intrigued by the often stated notion that the Jags and Colts had the best chance to upset the Patriots run in the post season. The rationale behind such protestations most commonly has been strength of schedule. The AFC South is the strongest and the AFC East is the weakest is the popular refrain.

I can understand fans using this excuse to justify their homer opinions, but as more and more pundits seemed to be reflecting the same thoughts and opinions, including bestowing the honorable title of "team to fear most in the playoffs" on the Jags, I felt compelled to review the statistics one more time.

Certainly the AFC South has the best win loss record for the season, however the AFC East is by no means the weakest:

1. AFC South 42-22
2. NFC East 40-24
3. NFC North 35-29
4. AFC North 32-32
5. AFC East 28-36
6. NFC South 27-37
7T NFC West 26-38
7T AFC West 26-38

Admittedly the AFC East is only 2 games better than the worst (interesting enough both west coast divisions).

The biggest nag in my mind has been the belief by some that the Patriots benefitted from a weak division and the "gift" of 6 easy games. For some reason the 6 easy games were used to offset the 7 games against quality opposition (thank you CHFF). I guess it is easy to ignore data that contradicts the sound bytes. Anyway this strange logic got me curious to find out what other easy games were faced by the Pats and just as importantly the Jags and Colts.

Not that I need to remind everyone but the schedule for the AFC East brought them up against the NFC East and the AFC North, while the AFC South met the NFC South and the AFC West.

Well needless to say the Pats met 8 teams with a collective record of 72-56, which more or less reflects the CHFF Quality Wins stats. But what was more revealing was the fact the the two playoff teams from the AFC South were the beneficiaries of a much easier schedule against teams with a collective record of 53-75. In another thread I contended that the Bills could have beaten the Titans and no doubt if they had played in the AFC South they too would have had a winning record.

Of the remaining games (2 games against 2006 AFC division counterparts) the Colts beat Baltimore but lost to NE, and the Jags beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Ignoring the intra-divisional games the Colts record against quality teams is less than stellar at 1-2, while the Jags had a very respectable 3-0.

I just thought the message board might be interested to learn that the biggest beneficiaries of a soft schedule appear to be the AFC South not the East.

PS the Colts ended up 4-3 in the CHFF Quality Standing, which might be OK for home games but not for a post season run (unless its with happy feet).

Just curious, did the Jags beat the NFC's 1 seed @ Dallas, and the AFCs #2 Seed @ Indy? I didn't think so. Pats did.

 

[ALP]

I am new to this forum however I have been lurking for a few years. I could not help but reply to this thread. I looked at the SOS a few weeks ago and sorted out the SOS for non-divisional oppenents. I felt the Patriots were not getting the right amount of credit when it comes to the SOS due to the week AFC EAST.

In no particular order

Non-Divisional Oppenents SOS
SD 98 - 62
New England 96 - 64
GB 76 - 84
Indy 74 - 86
Dallas 73 - 87
Jax 70 - 90
Ten 64 - 96

thank you for those stats, and welcome

 

[ALP]

ohh, btw

of the final 8 teams left in the post season, the pats have beaten 4 of 7...

 

[BeantownRox]

The Pats beat 6 playoff teams.

Enough said.