Cian Fahey on Tom Brady

[K. Dog]

Cian Fahey's analysis of Brady's 2016 season is available at Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue 2017 ($19.99) Note that the Brady chapter can be obtained separately. That site is known for introducing the "interceptable passes" statistic and for its all-22 based stats analysis.

Obviously, Fahey notes Brady is "historically before the snap" with "lightning quick release" and "post-snap processing". He is "one step ahead of the defense in everything he does".

The area of profound concern for the 2017 season, however, is that "Brady's arm strength declined as the season wore on." Only 2.79% of his passes were interceptable, 8th in the league. Brady only threw seven interceptable passes in 12 regular games - but he threw nine more passes in two playoff games against Texas and Atlanta. Like me, Fahey argues that there is statistical support that the 4-game suspension helped Brady. (I argued in another thread a while ago that Brady should sit the first 4 games of 2017 for that reason).

Fahey called the addition of Cooks "odd" because the Patriots already have a deep threat.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Fahey called the addition of Cooks "odd" because the Patriots already have a deep threat.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Brady only threw seven interceptable passes in 12 regular games - but he threw nine more passes in two playoff games against Texas and Atlanta.

At least in the Atlanta game, most of those can be credited to clever defense. Not to mention the sheer volume of passes.

Fahey called the addition of Cooks "odd" because the Patriots already have a deep threat.

But Cooks is a tremendous threat after the catch on slant routes and the like. And the mere presence of Cooks and Hogan (or Hawkins if he makes the team) on the field will likely force teams to more zone - they don't have guys that have the speed to cover both in press man.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Slater doesn't count as a deep threat .

 

[PatriotReign]

At least in the Atlanta game, most of those can be credited to clever defense. Not to mention the sheer volume of passes.



But Cooks is a tremendous threat after the catch on slant routes and the like. And the mere presence of Cooks and Hogan (or Hawkins if he makes the team) on the field will likely force teams to more zone - they don't have guys that have the speed to cover both in press man.

We have a nice group of speed merchants this year.

 

[primetime]

Fahey's analysis is sometimes interesting, but he's overly contrarian at times and suffers from a healthy dose of confirmation bias. He worships the ground Aaron Rodgers walks on, for instance, and any bad play or game by Rodgers is blamed on his receivers. He tends to dislike Brady for whatever reason.





Honestly, he often comes off as kind of a prick, and not because he doesn't like Brady. Probably because Twitter is hell and anyone who lives their life on there is deeply broken.

 

[Oswlek]

"Brady's arm strength declined as the season wore on." Only 2.79% of his passes were interceptable, 8th in the league. Brady only threw seven interceptable passes in 12 regular games - but he threw nine more passes in two playoff games against Texas and Atlanta.

Is there additional evidence for the decline of Brady's arm strength? That statistic alone is a very poor basis for drawing that conclusion.

 

[bormio]

Is there additional evidence for the decline of Brady's arm strength? That statistic alone is a very poor basis for drawing that conclusion.

Yeah, those 2 passes to Edelman and Hogan in OT had nothing on them. In fairness, loss of arm strength shows first when you don't have clean feet.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cian Fahey's analysis of Brady's 2016 season is available at Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue 2017 ($19.99) Note that the Brady chapter can be obtained separately. That site is known for introducing the "interceptable passes" statistic and for its all-22 based stats analysis.

Obviously, Fahey notes Brady is "historically before the snap" with "lightning quick release" and "post-snap processing". He is "one step ahead of the defense in everything he does".

The area of profound concern for the 2017 season, however, is that "Brady's arm strength declined as the season wore on." Only 2.79% of his passes were interceptable, 8th in the league. Brady only threw seven interceptable passes in 12 regular games - but he threw nine more passes in two playoff games against Texas and Atlanta. Like me, Fahey argues that there is statistical support that the 4-game suspension helped Brady. (I argued in another thread a while ago that Brady should sit the first 4 games of 2017 for that reason).

Fahey called the addition of Cooks "odd" because the Patriots already have a deep threat.

Thank you for this. I now know that I can completely ignore anything Cian Fahey ever publishes.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Honestly, he often comes off as kind of a prick, and not because he doesn't like Brady. Probably because Twitter is hell and anyone who lives their life on there is deeply broken.

He's a FootballOutsiders columnist. What the hell else would you expect? Their numbers are interesting, but too many of their staff are total sh*tstains.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Maybe not having Gronk, making life easier on secondaries, had something to do with more throws into tighter coverage.

Regards,
Chris

 

[PatsFanInVa]

He's a FootballOutsiders columnist. What the hell else would you expect? Their numbers are interesting, but too many of their staff are total sh*tstains.

You'll be sorry if we miss the DVOABowl this year.

 

[Jackson 2]

I've never heard of this jackwagon and from my limited scanning of these posts, I fully understand why. He can kiss off...

 

[K. Dog]

Is there additional evidence for the decline of Brady's arm strength? That statistic alone is a very poor basis for drawing that conclusion.

Fahey analyzes a number of plays to reach the conclusion but I think that the explicit analysis is illustrative - my sense is that Fahey concluded the arm strength was weakened based on his viewing all the plays, then gave a lot to illustrate the conclusion. For example, he notes that in Brady's first game back from suspension, against the Browns in week 5, he had "velocity and deep precision" in the 43-yard pass to Chris Hogan in Q2 and then later in a pass that was 53 yards in the air and high velocity all the way. He also notes the "precise pass" between two defenders in week 6, and then the pass to Gronk 25 yards the next week; then against the Bills the TDs to Hogan and Gronk, as >50 yard TDs. He then says Brady started to revert to normal after the bye week. Fahey analyzes a number of plays from the Steelers and Texans playoff games. For instance, in the Texas game he pointed out a number of interceptable balls, including one to Edelman that "hung in the air forever and arrived 5 yards further infield than it was supposed to".

 

[Galeb]

When Brady is down by multiple scores towards the end of the game, he will naturally take more risks with the ball. The Pats rarely trailed in the regular season and were down huge for much of the game vs. Atlanta. That alone explains much of the large number of "interceptable" passes thrown in the post season.

 

[holyredeemer]

I too cannot wait until we dump this bum. His best days are clearly behind him. Get rid of Brady and this team is goin' up! Heck, we might even be in the playoffs year after year and win a few SB's with someone who can actually throw the ball. Is that Mallett guy available? I heard he has a rocket of an arm.

 

[Deus Irae]

When Brady is down by multiple scores towards the end of the game, he will naturally take more risks with the ball. The Pats rarely trailed in the regular season and were down huge for much of the game vs. Atlanta. That alone explains much of the large number of "interceptable" passes thrown in the post season.

It was such a poor piece that Football Outsiders should really think of firing him. If he's so incompetent as to pen that, what the hell do they want him for?


And that's coming from someone who's talked about the Patriots having to keep an eye on Brady's arm strength, and really being the only ones who'd know about it for certain.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

this ****ing idiot. of course his arm isn't going to be as strong as 2007. he is fixing to be 40

 

[QuantumMechanic]

It was such a poor piece that Football Outsiders should really think of firing him. If he's so incompetent as to pen that, what the hell do they want him for?

Well, they keep Scott Kacsmar around, so clearly they're not against blatant incompetence.

 

[Wiluven]

Julio Jones was the best player on the field during the SB? The guy had 4 catches, no TD's, and less than 100 yards. He wasn't even in the top three or four best players on the field that day.