Check Breer's Camp Recap Blog

[zippo59]

Speaking only for myself, at least, had MIA, NYJ, IND, BAL, PIT, CIN, DEN or SD made the same 2nd-day selections as the NEP, I would have laughed myself off the chair, and then toasted their demise.

Honestly, wouldn't you have felt pretty good if we came out of Sunday with, at the very least, KBrown, OL Doug Datish, S John Wendling, DB Courtney Brown, RB DeShawn Wynn, Oldenburg, ILB Brandon Siler and Justin Rogers? I know I would have. I could have felt better, esp. about Saturday, but I could live with that list.

The don't draft to make you feel better they draft who they think is best for their team. Just because they don't see those two as the same thing does not mean they did anything wrong.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots do not draft to please you, or draft so you can live with them.

With regard to Saturday, most of us are fine with Meriweather, Welker, a SF 2008 first and an Oakland 2008 3rd.

With regard to Sunday (4th round), Moss and Brown are certainly a good start for most of us.

Summarizing, I think that this is a fine haul through the 4th round. Meriweather, a SF first, Welker, an Oakland third, Moss and Brown.

I'm fine if we get any help at all from the rest, although I am high on Oldenberg and Lua.

With regard Sunday (late round and later), these choices would all be expected to be long-shots, given the weakness of the draft. We shall, see but I expect at least a couple to make the Practice Squad.

Speaking only for myself, at least, had MIA, NYJ, IND, BAL, PIT, CIN, DEN or SD made the same 2nd-day selections as the NEP, I would have laughed myself off the chair, and then toasted their demise.

Honestly, wouldn't you have felt pretty good if we came out of Sunday with, at the very least, KBrown, OL Doug Datish, S John Wendling, DB Courtney Brown, RB DeShawn Wynn, Oldenburg, ILB Brandon Siler and Justin Rogers? I know I would have. I could have felt better, esp. about Saturday, but I could live with that list.

 

[arrellbee]

No, it doesn't; it also doesn't mean that I, and ALL the scouting reports that I read prior to the draft, are flying blind, either.

Now, I did know about Kareem Brown, and Richardson - because he played at ND, and Hairston and Hilliard, but I literally had no effin idea who Oldenburg or Lua or Elgin were. Did anyone see even one of these picks coming? In what Upside-Down universe does Oldenburg get drafted ahead of Doug Datish? Or Hairston ahead of DeShawn Wynn? Or Lua ahead of Brandon Siler? Maybe you can take a chance with one of your 7th-rounders, or even one of your 6th-rounders, but NOT with your only 5th-rounder, and 2 of your 6th-rounders, and BOTH of your 7th-rounders. Sometimes it's better to take someone with a lower ceiling, but a higher floor, every so often.

BTW, I wouldn't pay top dollar for Maroney's backup, either. But if Brown's asking price comes down, then I'm listening.

If you have so much faith in the scouting reports, do you have an explanation for why they get even first round picks around 60% wrong as to players who will be solid starters in the NFL ??

On the other hand, if you rate Jarvis Green as a starter on most teams, the Patriots have almost 20% of their 4th thru 6th round picks starting. If you were to say that James Sanders would become a starter, the Patriots would be over 20%.

So if you don't mind, I'll figure that the Patriots are better at making draft picks than the scouts - or your conviction that you [the scouts] would have picked better than the Patriots.

By the way, the Patriots success rate at making 1st round picks who are starters - is 100% - compared to the leagues (and scouts) 30plus % success. Again, I think I'll go with the Patriots.

Oh, and yes. The Patriots second round picks - 3 out of 7 are starters. and if Chad Jackson ends up as a starter next year, it would be 4 out of 7. Again, the Patriots beat the scouts first round success rate with their second round picks.

Oh, and yes. The Patriots third round picks - 2 out of 6 are starters. And if Dave Thomas becomes a starting TE on 2 TE formations next year, that would be 3 out of 6. Hmmm.

Oh, and from the 7th round, the Patriots have Patrick Pass and David Givens.

Would you consider changing your opinion? Just asking.

 

[captain stone]

I'm not concerned about name players. Honestly I prefer no names on day two because then I feel like it's someone the Patriots have been eyeing as opposed to well known players who everyone has passed on time and time again.

Nothing at all wrong with the occasional no-name on the 2nd day; David Givens is Example A.

However, there is a much longer list of no-names who never even made it to the PS, e.g.: Dan Stevenson, AKA the next Joe Andruzzi.

I'm just a little apprehensive about an entire 2nd day of no-names. I prefer my bets a bit more hedged, just in case.

 

[captain stone]

Why? C'mon Stoney, quit painting yourself into a corner. For starters, are those draft sites evaluating talent based on how it might apply to the NEP? Pioli's team knows intimately what NE wants to do on offense, defense, and special team (news reports have noted Pats' Scouts coaching during Training Camp, they aren't just observer drones). They apply this understanding to evaluating how a player would "fit" within the NEP scheme. None of the draft sites out there even come close with their generic analysis.

Seven months? I expect this team, regardless of who makes the roster, to be in the playoffs. More than that is gravy.

Sometimes, as Coach Freud might say, a RB, CB or TE is just a RB, CB or TE.
In other words, I would rather draft a player who is less of an ideal fit, but is significantly more talented, than a player who is a somewhat better fit, but significantly less talented, with all other things - health, character, coachability - being relatively the same. There are exceptions, of course, e.g.: 3-4 front 7 personnel vs. 4-3 front 7 personnel. The FO would then need to be confident that the Coaching Staff can teach the inexperienced rookies the general modus operandi of the NEP.

The seven months of which I earlier wrote refers to the time it may take to learn if any of these 2nd-day picks has a future here. The NEP are most definitely making the playoffs, incl. winning the division. A first-round bye is an absolute must, however. There will be no SB without it.

 

[captain stone]

If you have so much faith in the scouting reports, do you have an explanation for why they get even first round picks around 60% wrong as to players who will be solid starters in the NFL ??

On the other hand, if you rate Jarvis Green as a starter on most teams, the Patriots have almost 20% of their 4th thru 6th round picks starting. If you were to say that James Sanders would become a starter, the Patriots would be over 20%.

So if you don't mind, I'll figure that the Patriots are better at making draft picks than the scouts - or your conviction that you [the scouts] would have picked better than the Patriots.

1) By the way, the Patriots success rate at making 1st round picks who are starters - is 100% - compared to the leagues (and scouts) 30plus % success. Again, I think I'll go with the Patriots.

2) Oh, and yes. The Patriots second round picks - 3 out of 7 are starters. and if Chad Jackson ends up as a starter next year, it would be 4 out of 7. Again, the Patriots beat the scouts first round success rate with their second round picks.

Oh, and yes. The Patriots third round picks - 2 out of 6 are starters. And if Dave Thomas becomes a starting TE on 2 TE formations next year, that would be 3 out of 6. Hmmm.

3) Oh, and from the 7th round, the Patriots have Patrick Pass and David Givens.

Would you consider changing your opinion? Just asking.

1) The FO does an outstanding job with 1st-round picks, thus my disappointment that one of those was traded to an up-an-coming 49ers team who may draft no higher than 20 next year. One of the reasons for the FO's success is its aversion from character risks and slow learners (e.g: WRs); another is its proclivity to draft players somewhat higher than their talent commands, but who are much less likely to bust (the Lower Ceiling/Higher Floor Method). Logan Mankins is Example A.

2) Don't count your Jacksons before they hatch. I was glad that they traded for and drafted him, but let's see how he fares this year.

3) Pass was at times fairly productive, but more often just frustrating. TBC is a better example, but he was already a borderline top-100 talent in the 03 draft, hardly a no-name like Givens was in 02.

My basic opinion is that too many no-names were drafted that Sunday, and not enough talents, like TBC and Brady, who dropped because of health, poor fits, or whatever.