Brady, in the MVP race?

[RodThePat]

Yeah, can't expect him to avoid throwing picks with Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garçon on his team.

And add to that the fact that he was screaming at Blair White after the Sean Lee pick 6 when that one was ENTIRELY on Manning. Even if White wasn't where he was supposed to be, he was already out of his brake and Manning simply threw it to the defender. He locked into White from the snap and just chucked it carelessly without regard to the coverage. It was Favre-like.

 

[PittPatriot]

Interesting factoid from WEEI. The Patriots are #1 in scoring, despite being last in the league in possessions per game.

So that either goes against the media's idea that this is a "dink and dunk" offense that can't get a quick strike.

It also shows a little bit that our defense doesn't get off the field quickly enough. Hopefully that is corrected against the Jets.

I agree on the D not getting off the field...but I don't think it has anything to do with quick strike. In fact, it may have more to do with long, deliberate drives. Some call those "dink and dunk."

 

[ivanvamp]

I just love that the argument went from "Peyton Manning is the GOAT, just look at him getting it done with a bunch of no name receivers!" to "Peyton Manning is the GOAT, but how can you expect him to get it done with a bunch of no name receivers?".

Either way, he wins.

Agreed. And it's frustrating for sure. When Brady was winning Super Bowls with no-name receivers and Peyton was getting drilled in the playoffs but putting up huge regular season numbers, they said Peyton was the greatest. Then when Brady finally put up huge stats (and won the MVP in 2007) they still said that Peyton was the greatest. Then when Peyton's team suffered a few injuries and Peyton struggled (2010), they say that Peyton is the greatest.

I mean, you want winning? Brady has it over Peyton in spades. You want unbelievable stats? Brady has the greatest single season in history. You want head-to-head? Brady wins that too.

Peyton's career vs. NE (with Brady), including playoffs: 287-462 (62.1%), 3411 yds (7.38 ypa), 22 td, 17 int, *4-8 record

Brady's career vs. Ind, including playoffs: 253-381 (66.4%), 2836 yds (7.44 ypa), 22 td, 12 int, *8-4 record

 

[BradyManny]

Interesting factoid from WEEI. The Patriots are #1 in scoring, despite being last in the league in possessions per game.

It's pretty damn impressive - and I think this is the factor that goes most unnoticed. Brady and the O's margin for error is so slim playing with this defense.

On the flipside, you can probably guess that this defense is in the bottom 3rd in scoring and is likely similarly low in possessions per game.

 

[Lampshade]

Agreed. And it's frustrating for sure. When Brady was winning Super Bowls with no-name receivers and Peyton was getting drilled in the playoffs but putting up huge regular season numbers, they said Peyton was the greatest. Then when Brady finally put up huge stats (and won the MVP in 2007) they still said that Peyton was the greatest. Then when Peyton's team suffered a few injuries and Peyton struggled (2010), they say that Peyton is the greatest.

I mean, you want winning? Brady has it over Peyton in spades. You want unbelievable stats? Brady has the greatest single season in history. You want head-to-head? Brady wins that too.

Peyton's career vs. NE (with Brady), including playoffs: 287-462 (62.1%), 3411 yds (7.38 ypa), 22 td, 17 int, *4-8 record

Brady's career vs. Ind, including playoffs: 253-381 (66.4%), 2836 yds (7.44 ypa), 22 td, 12 int, *8-4 record

Their comparative numbers can be parsed in a million ways (against good defenses, against bad defenses, in bad weather, in a dome, with great supporting cast, with average supporting cast, in playoffs, etc etc etc), and Brady's numbers are always superior. I wonder how their careers passing stats would look if Manning played half his games in Foxboro, and Brady played half his in a dome.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Matt Ryan seems to be moving into consideration,he is as close to resembling a young Brady as there can be right now.

 

[BradyManny]

I said after the Falcons beat the Ravens that Ryan should be considered in the MVP voting, and he should. If Brady has a good game tonite, then the MVP candidates will be down to Brady, Vick and Ryan.

As I said before, ultimately, I don't care who much wins it as long as Manning doesn't get it undeserved again. Which, at this point, looks unlikely. Manning shouldn't even be in the Pro Bowl at this point since he's directly responsible for their last 3 losses with his Favre-impersonations.

 

[RodThePat]

Matt Ryan seems to be moving into consideration,he is as close to resembling a young Brady as there can be right now.

That's the reason I'll be pissed if he wins it. Young Brady had better season than Ryan is having right now and wasn't even considered for the award.

 

[Lampshade]

Peyton is gonna have four great games and steal the redemption votes that Vick was gonna get.

 

[ivanvamp]

Their comparative numbers can be parsed in a million ways (against good defenses, against bad defenses, in bad weather, in a dome, with great supporting cast, with average supporting cast, in playoffs, etc etc etc), and Brady's numbers are always superior. I wonder how their careers passing stats would look if Manning played half his games in Foxboro, and Brady played half his in a dome.

Brady's career stats in a dome (includes playoffs):

15 g, 330-513 (64.3%), 4140 yds, 33 td, 11 int, 11-4 record

Ridiculous. Keep in mind that for Brady, all his dome games are either true road games or, at best, neutral site games (for Super Bowls). Peyton has never played a Super Bowl in a dome, so all his dome games have been home games (thus he's never played in a loud and hostile dome). Here's his dome stat line (including playoffs):

2495-3817 (65.4%), 29876 yds, 222 td, 97 int, 80-31 record

Project Brady and Manning's career dome #'s over a 16 game season and here's what you get:

Brady: 352-547 (64.3%), 4416 yds (8.07 ypa), 35 td, 12 int, 12-4 record
Manning: 360-550 (65.4%), 4306 yds (7.83 ypa), 32 td, 14 int, 12-4 record

Again, remember that all those dome games for Peyton were home games, while for Brady they were either neutral or (for the most part) road games, which are *much* harder. And yet, Brady's numbers in a dome are still better than Peyton's (though they're very close).

 

[sieglo]

Brady's career stats in a dome (includes playoffs):

15 g, 330-513 (64.3%), 4140 yds, 33 td, 11 int, 11-4 record

Ridiculous. Keep in mind that for Brady, all his dome games are either true road games or, at best, neutral site games (for Super Bowls). Peyton has never played a Super Bowl in a dome, so all his dome games have been home games (thus he's never played in a loud and hostile dome). Here's his dome stat line (including playoffs):

2495-3817 (65.4%), 29876 yds, 222 td, 97 int, 80-31 record

Project Brady and Manning's career dome #'s over a 16 game season and here's what you get:

Brady: 352-547 (64.3%), 4416 yds (8.07 ypa), 35 td, 12 int, 12-4 record
Manning: 360-550 (65.4%), 4306 yds (7.83 ypa), 32 td, 14 int, 12-4 record

Again, remember that all those dome games for Peyton were home games, while for Brady they were either neutral or (for the most part) road games, which are *much* harder. And yet, Brady's numbers in a dome are still better than Peyton's (though they're very close).

Someone needs to run the numbers on average performance of QBs in a dome vs. QBs outdoors over some reasonable period of time. Whatever the average difference is should be considered a handicap for dome QBs when comparing stats with outdoor QBs, in order to create an apples to apples comparison.

Okay, so who wants to run the numbers?

 

[ivanvamp]

Someone needs to run the numbers on average performance of QBs in a dome vs. QBs outdoors over some reasonable period of time. Whatever the average difference is should be considered a handicap for dome QBs when comparing stats with outdoor QBs, in order to create an apples to apples comparison.

Okay, so who wants to run the numbers?

That's a pretty massive undertaking (and I already did my part ). In baseball there's a stat called ops+, which means on-base-plus-slugging percentages, contextualized for ballpark and such. Because hitting 30 homers in cavernous Petco Park is very different than hitting 30 homers in Philadelphia's bandbox.

Similarly, Peyton Manning's career stats are, one would think, definitely skewed because of the number of games he plays in a dome (well over half, since half are automatically in a dome, and quite a few road games of theirs are also in domes).

Not only that, but Brady doesn't just play the vast majority of his games outdoors. He plays in frigid New England, which has more bad-weather games than almost any other place in the league. So he's putting up ridiculous numbers in the worst environment possible. It's very different than Rivers in San Diego.

 

[Lampshade]

Good stuff, ivan. It's strange how rarely the elements get mentioned when discussing stats in the NFL.

 

[ivanvamp]

Good stuff, ivan. It's strange how rarely the elements get mentioned when discussing stats in the NFL.

Agreed. In baseball, if the weather is too bad, they postpone the game. Basketball is an indoor sport so weather is moot. In football, though, they play in all kinds of weather, so you get massive extremes and everything in-between. Remember the game in Buffalo a couple of years ago, when the wind was like 60 mph or something ridiculous? The Pats won 13-0, and Cassel's line was: 6-8, 78 yds, 0 td, 0 int. So a starting QB in a real NFL game (not from 1941) attempted just 8 passes. It was only due to the weather. But you're right...that isn't taken into consideration generally. It should be though.

 

[Nikolai]

Someone needs to run the numbers on average performance of QBs in a dome vs. QBs outdoors over some reasonable period of time. Whatever the average difference is should be considered a handicap for dome QBs when comparing stats with outdoor QBs, in order to create an apples to apples comparison.

Okay, so who wants to run the numbers?

What's a reasonable period of time? If there can be a consensus here (and it's reasonable, i.e. not ten years), I might run those stats over the holidays. I'll hvae a little time on my hands

 

[Nikolai]

That's a pretty massive undertaking (and I already did my part ). In baseball there's a stat called ops+, which means on-base-plus-slugging percentages, contextualized for ballpark and such. Because hitting 30 homers in cavernous Petco Park is very different than hitting 30 homers in Philadelphia's bandbox.

Similarly, Peyton Manning's career stats are, one would think, definitely skewed because of the number of games he plays in a dome (well over half, since half are automatically in a dome, and quite a few road games of theirs are also in domes).

Not only that, but Brady doesn't just play the vast majority of his games outdoors. He plays in frigid New England, which has more bad-weather games than almost any other place in the league. So he's putting up ridiculous numbers in the worst environment possible. It's very different than Rivers in San Diego.

What you probably need is a game time weather condition handicap. Domes are always clear and 75F or whatever, though 75F and clear is different than 80F and a rain storm like you might get in Miami in October. If I were to do the analysis, I'd take that into account.

 

[Deus Irae]

Someone needs to run the numbers on average performance of QBs in a dome vs. QBs outdoors over some reasonable period of time. Whatever the average difference is should be considered a handicap for dome QBs when comparing stats with outdoor QBs, in order to create an apples to apples comparison.

Okay, so who wants to run the numbers?

CHFF had that data a few years back. I don't know if they've updated it lately. You could probably contact the site and ask them.

 

[Shed83]

There is an almost identical argument in Soccer about Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo and generally the opinion is that they both are so unbelievably good that it really is down to personal preference.

However at least in that argument there appears to be a fair comparison within the media and is almot split between the two players.

In this argument though it doesnt appear that the media look objectively and most have decided on Manning and wont reassess their opinion despite all the stats and such like suggesting Brady is at least on a par with Manning.

At least Jason Whitlock on Fox Sports is flying the flag for Tom.

Peyton Manning can't compare to Tom Brady - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

 

[RodThePat]

There is an almost identical argument in Soccer about Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo and generally the opinion is that they both are so unbelievably good that it really is down to personal preference.

However at least in that argument there appears to be a fair comparison within the media and is almot split between the two players.

In this argument though it doesnt appear that the media look objectively and most have decided on Manning and wont reassess their opinion despite all the stats and such like suggesting Brady is at least on a par with Manning.

At least Jason Whitlock on Fox Sports is flying the flag for Tom.

Peyton Manning can't compare to Tom Brady - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

Brady wins more often and will very soon be better statistically. There should be no debate, really.

 

[sieglo]

At least Jason Whitlock on Fox Sports is flying the flag for Tom.

As much as I agree with his conclusion that Brady > Manning, Whitlock's argument is weak. Brady is tougher than Manning? Maybe, but Manning is pretty tough. Didn't he play with his jaw wired shut at one point in his career?