Bill Barnwell with a great, in-depth analysis of Pats vs. Falcons

[skinnydog]

That's the crazy thing about the playoffs.. all a team needs to do is put 3-4 wins together in a row to be Champs.. which is tough to do, but flukey crap happens..

Like in 2006, the Colts defense was a total joke against the run.. it was embarrassing how poor that defense was, but suddenly in the playoffs they started shutting everyone down and also running the ball effectively themselves... its like they completely morphed into a different team for that playoff run, minus that game against the Pats that I don't ever like to talk about lol

As for the 2006 Colts, see Bob Sanders. He returned at the end of the season and did turn that D into a run stopping machine. I have never seen a safety that small have that big of an impact on a run D. He was fearless in throwing his body into the running back. I don't see the Falcons adding a Bob Sanders to this defense.

 

[SVN]

Games change on small plays. If coates catches that bomb from ben r or any of those 2 TDs before the half , our defensive stats dont look the same. Yes we played good defense but also relied on other team making mistakes which is also kinda expected but its not like every big play the defense has been lights out.We have been helped by some bad drops by opponents. Thats why saying we hold atlanta to 17 in a superbowl sounds overly optimistic to me.

 

[The Gr8est]

Definitely a good read. So...you're superstitious you say; the Karma gods have decreed that unless you transfer 10k to my personal account by Saturday that the Patriots will lose on Sunday and Tom will contract some virulent form of VD from a Houston steakhouse bathroom stall.

So glad I read your post, and I see that money is an issue for you, fortunately for you I am a Nigerian prince, and I think you may be able to help me out with an issue that could be beneficial for both of us....

 

[Pats2000]

We are debating this one on the Falcons boards today as well. The general take is that the article is very well thought out and spot on in the analysis. The only break between here and over there is if the conclusion he made naturally come from that analysis.

I work with stats, so I let a little of that wander into my though process. His main point seemed to be that the Falcons are going to experience a regression to the mean in terms of the QB pressure percentages. Assuming the Falcons game stats are exhibiting normal process variation, it would be hard to argue with his conclusion. To have a 3rd straight data point 50% above the mean would be...unlikely. Therefore, they won't get any pressure on Brady and the Patriots will score at will.

On the QB Pressure % point, if you want to believe that, go ahead, the logic is sound. My problem is with the assumption that the Falcons QB Pressure % change in the post season is due to normal process variation. It could well be that the change is associated with an actual change to the Falcons defensive process. If that is the case, it could lead to a sustainable shift in the process mean. His article actually does reference at least one process change. The Falcons are blitzing more often. He goes on to say that while that is a fools game vs. Brady, they really have no choice but to continue with that. In other words, maintain the process change that began two games ago. On one hand he is saying that the process should regress to the mean (implying the mean of the 16 game regular season process). On the other hand, he's saying they will keep using the new process. In my opinion, that is where his conclusion breaks from his solid analysis. He sited a process change and then said he expected the mean to continue as if the process had not changed.

The truth is, none of us really know if the blitz percent is predictive of a higher QB pressure % or not. They are correlated, but their isn't nearly enough data to say their is a causal relationship. Ultimately I believe that his analysis is sound, but his conclusion is suspect. We will all find out together on Sunday.

I think the difference between blitzing Rodgers and Wilson like that and Brady are light years apart. Unless you can get pressure up the center, and cover the short crossing route for at least 3 seconds. You are not going to stop Brady. No one is better at rotating coverage and protecting against the blitz, because Brady tends to know the blitz that is going to happen from the film study.

So if you guys send additional personnel on a blitz package and it doesn't get there. Atlanta is going to get eaten up on defense. Additionally, the Pats offense is just as potent as Atlanta on big plays. They are tied for 20+ yard passing plays, and 40+ yard passing plays on the year.

 

[SVN]

here is barnwell on espn saying falcons pass rush could change the game
Barnwell: Falcons' pass rush could change the game - ESPN Video

One thing is from sure watching that GB game. They going to hit brady early and hard even after he rids of the ball. Wonder how our oline does vs their speedy rushers.

 

[skinnydog]

It was certainly unconventional to blitz Rodgers. To do that, you play man. That turns the DBs backs to Rodgers. The theory is he will run wild. That is basically what happened in the 2nd half of week 8. He ran a lot in the 2nd half once we made our adjustment to aggressive man coverage, but all his running only led to 8 points because we sacked him a few times to kill drives.

I've always thought Rogers was pretty susceptible to the blitz. First, he tends to hold onto the ball and look for the downfield throw first. The shorter dump off throw is more often than not his last resort. Instead, he trusts in his ability to scramble to avoid the rush. Second, and his problem, is that when the rush comes he tends to look down at the rush rather than keeping his eyes downfield like a Brady or Manning. He makes a lot of big plays by escaping the rush, but he also takes more sacks than you might expect because of how he fails to keep his eyes downfield and holds onto the ball too long. So that Atlanta style of bringing an extra rusher that worked well for Atlanta at home, will not work at all against Brady and the Pats.

I saw a few screen caps of plays form the Falcons/Packers game where Atlanta was putting pressure on Rogers and closing in on a sack. In one, the Packers receivers in the screen were all still heading downfield. None had turned to look for a pass. That won't happen Sunday. In another, the Falcons blitzed and left the middle of the field wide open. No Packer's receiver cut off their route to find the empty space. Again, that won't happen Sunday. So Falcons go ahead and blitz. Brady and the Pat's receivers will make the hot read all day long.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

One thing the Falcons do have going for them is that it's being played in a dome, which fits perfectly into how they're built around speed

 

[juny]

here is barnwell on espn saying falcons pass rush could change the game
Barnwell: Falcons' pass rush could change the game - ESPN Video

One thing is from sure watching that GB game. They going to hit brady early and hard even after he rids of the ball. Wonder how our oline does vs their speedy rushers.

not too concerned about the tackles, it's the interior that could pose problems if they shift their pass rushers inside

 

[TBR]

I think it's important to note that Barnwell isn't a Pats fan. For example, he thinks the Pats benefitted greatly when Bell went down in the AFCCG, almost sounding like a Steelers excuse maker. He calls it like he sees it.

His analysis on Beasley's 15 sacks was interesting.

Regards,
Chris

He should also realize the Steelers benefited greatly with Gronk on IR and Bennett playing on a broken ankle.

 

[1960Pats]

Definitely a good read. So...you're superstitious you say; the Karma gods have decreed that unless you transfer 10k to my personal account by Saturday that the Patriots will lose on Sunday and Tom will contract some virulent form of VD from a Houston steakhouse bathroom stall.

Luckily, for only 5k more, he can get a dose of my magic potion to erase that curse.

 

[DaveEG]

I think the difference between blitzing Rodgers and Wilson like that and Brady are light years apart. Unless you can get pressure up the center, and cover the short crossing route for at least 3 seconds. You are not going to stop Brady. No one is better at rotating coverage and protecting against the blitz, because Brady tends to know the blitz that is going to happen from the film study.

So if you guys send additional personnel on a blitz package and it doesn't get there. Atlanta is going to get eaten up on defense. Additionally, the Pats offense is just as potent as Atlanta on big plays. They are tied for 20+ yard passing plays, and 40+ yard passing plays on the year.

You are correct. However, I think they Falcons are perfectly willing to roll the dice on defense. The coach's and team's mentality since Trufant went to IR has been to go down swinging instead of sitting back and letting the offense call the shots. I support that approach. I think Brady and Blount will hang one eight-minute drive after another on us if we sit back and play safe.

I don't think Atlanta is going to blitz a bunch. I think that aggression is going to come in the form of trying to get physical with the receivers. I think D. Jones is going to play shallow crossing routes very aggressively. I think that disrupting the timing between Brady and his targets will be the emphasis.

So yes, our defense approach will be high risk, high reward.

 

[jimnance]

I

You are correct. However, I think they Falcons are perfectly willing to roll the dice on defense. The coach's and team's mentality since Trufant went to IR has been to go down swinging instead of sitting back and letting the offense call the shots. I support that approach. I think Brady and Blount will hang one eight-minute drive after another on us if we sit back and play safe.

I don't think Atlanta is going to blitz a bunch. I think that aggression is going to come in the form of trying to get physical with the receivers. I think D. Jones is going to play shallow crossing routes very aggressively. I think that disrupting the timing between Brady and his targets will be the emphasis.

So yes, our defense approach will be high risk, high reward.

.

If that is the case, Atlanta will get blown out. Edge rushers are irrelevant to Brady. You must get consistent nonblitzing pressure up the middle vs. Brady to have any chance. 2 problems with that are 1. Pats have excellent ol 2. Falcs don't have the personnel to do that. Jarrett has done it only a little. Same with Jones but hes a rookie. Can't see it happening consistently.
Get physical with Pats wrs? Good luck with that. Edelman and hogan are two of the most physical wrs in the nfl. Pats are BY FAR a more physical team than falcs on BOTH sides of the ball. Falcons are a finesse team. Patriots are widely considered the most physical team in the NFL right now.

 

[Pats2000]

You are correct. However, I think they Falcons are perfectly willing to roll the dice on defense. The coach's and team's mentality since Trufant went to IR has been to go down swinging instead of sitting back and letting the offense call the shots. I support that approach. I think Brady and Blount will hang one eight-minute drive after another on us if we sit back and play safe.

I don't think Atlanta is going to blitz a bunch. I think that aggression is going to come in the form of trying to get physical with the receivers. I think D. Jones is going to play shallow crossing routes very aggressively. I think that disrupting the timing between Brady and his targets will be the emphasis.

So yes, our defense approach will be high risk, high reward.

Hrmm, after considering what you said, I'm going to go with my original prediction of a Pats win , lol. It's almost game time and I can't be logical anymore...go Pats, we gonna beat up on the dirty birds. Good luck man!

 

[DaveEG]

I
.

If that is the case, Atlanta will get blown out. Edge rushers are irrelevant to Brady. You must get consistent nonblitzing pressure up the middle vs. Brady to have any chance. 2 problems with that are 1. Pats have excellent ol 2. Falcs don't have the personnel to do that. Jarrett has done it only a little. Same with Jones but hes a rookie. Can't see it happening consistently.
Get physical with Pats wrs? Good luck with that. Edelman and hogan are two of the most physical wrs in the nfl. Pats are BY FAR a more physical team than falcs on BOTH sides of the ball. Falcons are a finesse team. Patriots are widely considered the most physical team in the NFL right now.

I've been polite since I got here, but if you speak about the Falcons and use the word "finesse" you lose credibility with both me and knowledgeable Patriots fans.

Keanu Neal

 

[Nikolai]

You are correct. However, I think they Falcons are perfectly willing to roll the dice on defense. The coach's and team's mentality since Trufant went to IR has been to go down swinging instead of sitting back and letting the offense call the shots. I support that approach. I think Brady and Blount will hang one eight-minute drive after another on us if we sit back and play safe.

I don't think Atlanta is going to blitz a bunch. I think that aggression is going to come in the form of trying to get physical with the receivers. I think D. Jones is going to play shallow crossing routes very aggressively. I think that disrupting the timing between Brady and his targets will be the emphasis.

So yes, our defense approach will be high risk, high reward.

If you don't blitz, you're going to have to trust that four rushers will get there and then much depends on how your coverage is being run. If it's a Cover 3 zone, you and everyone else knows it'll be a long day for the Falcons. If it's Cover 3 man under, the Falcons are going to be susceptible to the various rub and pick routes the Pats run. Also, in Cover 3 man under, I would expect Dion Lewis to have a pretty nice day with YAC in the flats.

A "high risk, high reward" approach "may" yield dividends early on (I'm skeptical), but the Pats ability to adjust on the fly is pretty good. It's one of the reasons they don't panic. I've noticed it a lot more this year. Sometimes, the Pats start really slow and the opposing defense tips its hand on the gameplan, and then the Pats make adjustments the other team usually can't match. The third quarter is a big quarter for us this year, and I'm expecting the same in this game.

 

[DaveEG]

If you don't blitz, you're going to have to trust that four rushers will get there and then much depends on how your coverage is being run. If it's a Cover 3 zone, you and everyone else knows it'll be a long day for the Falcons. If it's Cover 3 man under, the Falcons are going to be susceptible to the various rub and pick routes the Pats run. Also, in Cover 3 man under, I would expect Dion Lewis to have a pretty nice day with YAC in the flats.

A "high risk, high reward" approach "may" yield dividends early on (I'm skeptical), but the Pats ability to adjust on the fly is pretty good. It's one of the reasons they don't panic. I've noticed it a lot more this year. Sometimes, the Pats start really slow and the opposing defense tips its hand on the gameplan, and then the Pats make adjustments the other team usually can't match. The third quarter is a big quarter for us this year, and I'm expecting the same in this game.

Everyone tries to put the Falcons in cover 3 because Quinn is from Seattle. The truth is, I can't think of a game since week 8 where we spent more that half the game in it. We played quite a bit in week 17 vs. the Saints because we had a huge lead. An onsides kick late made that game a lot more "fun" than it should have been.

I think the adjustment chess match will be really fun to watch. While Bill gets all the credit, Quinn and Shanahan are incredibly quick on in-game adjustments.

 

[Nikolai]

Everyone tries to put the Falcons in cover 3 because Quinn is from Seattle. The truth is, I can't think of a game since week 8 where we spent more that half the game in it. We played quite a bit in week 17 vs. the Saints because we had a huge lead. An onsides kick late made that game a lot more "fun" than it should have been.

I think the adjustment chess match will be really fun to watch. While Bill gets all the credit, Quinn and Shanahan are incredibly quick on in-game adjustments.

I'd go back and look at the Falcon's D alignments, but frankly I'm researched out at this stage. I THOUGHT what I had seen later in the year was the same Cover 3 but with man (which seems better for disguising blitzes) under rather than zone, which is what they ran earlier in the year more often. I admit I didn't get into the weeds with it, though. I spent my research currency more on numbers this time around.

 

[Th3Birdman]

While Bill gets all the credit, Quinn and Shanahan are incredibly quick on in-game adjustments.

Unfortunately for your Falcons, Quinn and Shanahan, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL at adjustments.

 

[n6249c]

You are correct. However, I think they Falcons are perfectly willing to roll the dice on defense. The coach's and team's mentality since Trufant went to IR has been to go down swinging instead of sitting back and letting the offense call the shots. I support that approach. I think Brady and Blount will hang one eight-minute drive after another on us if we sit back and play safe.

I don't think Atlanta is going to blitz a bunch. I think that aggression is going to come in the form of trying to get physical with the receivers. I think D. Jones is going to play shallow crossing routes very aggressively. I think that disrupting the timing between Brady and his targets will be the emphasis.

So yes, our defense approach will be high risk, high reward.

I think if the Falcons count on being physical with receivers as the cornerstone of their Super Bowl defense, they will learn a painful lesson about Blount Force Trauma.

Also think that the recipe about trying to disrupt the timing will be vulnerable to Lewis or White chipping Beasley and then curling up behind him in the flat for some nice easy YAC.

How good are the Falcons at defending screen passes? And didn't I read somewhere that it's likely 6'5" 265# Marty Bennett is likely to get matched up against a 5'10" CB?

 

[luuked]

Unfortunately for your Falcons, Quinn and Shanahan, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL at adjustments.

Boggles my mind that some people think that Atlanta might have a coaching advantage.

McDaniels has been doing what Shanahan does for years just more consistently, Patricia put together an actual defense that deserves that name and Quinn is a couple of decades of experience and sustainability away from being mentioned in the same sentence as BB.

If I were a Falcons fan the last thing I would look forward to is a "chess match" between the two coaching staffs.