Any & all Rush Data, info is appreciated here!
So I ran some numbers last night based on this study. While it's not a perfect predictor, it does seem to be useful. I've slightly adjusted some of the parameters to include some players that are on the fringes but have traits that mitigate production / athleticism (exceptional physical profile, advanced technique, extenuating circumstances, etc).
Prime example: Tyquan Lewis was part of a heavy rotation at Ohio State with the Bosa brothers, Hubbard, Holmes, etc. All things considered, his production is quite good, since he wasn't a full time player in that program.
He ran in the 4.6s, broad-jumped 10-7, had a 7.1 3-cone, and had 37 tackles for a loss in his career. Again, he missed out on the 1.36 per game TFL mark, but based on playing fewer snaps, I think it evens out. I'm putting him borderline in the blue chip category.
Hercules Mata'afa easily exceeded the TFL mark, and he also eclipsed the 40 cutoff, but the site didn't mention him (probably because he's not listed with the edge defenders).
Duke Ejiofor had great production, and also more than met the TFL requirement, but a labrum surgery prevented him from performing at the Combine or pro day. Based on tape, I don't think he's a 4.6 guy, but I definitely think he would be able to meet the 4.82 listed in the article. He might not be any faster than that, but with his long arms and advanced hand skills, I don't think it matters.
Based purely on athleticism, Sweat and Carter have a chance to make their mark. Sweat is further along as a traditional DE, but Carter has more experience in coverage, and he looks good in space. Untapped potential for him to grow into his frame.
Joe Ostman also meets the TFL and speed requirements. The Patriots have worked him out already. He could be good value in the later rounds, although he doesn't have the size the Patriots have traditionally prioritized in the draft.
Genard Avery also fits both requirements, but he's more of an inside linebacker who took some pass rushing snaps. 22 tackles for a loss is impressive, though. I know
@manxman2601 likes him.
Zach Sieler from Ferris State ran a 4.78 at 6'5 #290. 31 reps, 32" vertical. In case no one is familiar with his production, last year he set a school record: 29.5 tackles for loss, 19.5 sacks. Low level of competition or not, that's impressive!
Just missing the cut: Dorance Armstrong. His junior year he had 20 TFL, but that tailed off his senior year to only 9.5. He also ran much slower than expected at the Combine (4.87). Most people thought that he would be a 4.6 guy easily. I wonder if he had a nagging injury? He didn't run any faster at his pro day, either, but did manage to jump higher and improve his BP reps. I don't like his tape as much as some do, though.
Marcell Frazier is the last guy I wanted to mention. He's a shade under the magic 1.36 TFL per game number (in the 1.2s), but that's because he dealt with an injury for the first half of the season. After returning to health, he had 5.5 sacks in their last 7 games. He also ran in the 4.6 range at his pro day, after shedding 6% body fat and working hard to improve his testing numbers. He worked out along with Bradley Chubb, and pushed himself to match or exceed Chubb. I like the Missouri pedigree at DE. He's a guy to watch in the later rounds.
'Scouts were shocked:' Mizzou's Marcell Frazier has strong pro day
