Bedard says Brady was bad against Jets?

[SBLIII]

Im on the side that bradys game has diminished somewhat this year, but he was nearly perfect in that game and id gladly take that for the playoffs.

Brady still ranked 7th in DVOA (6th if you don't count the limited sample size of Fitzpatrick) with a weak WR corps and washed Gronkowski. That's a lot better than how people portray him this season.

 

[1960Pats]

That reminds me something I've noticed all year. The hitches and passes to the flat often don't have the zip on them they used to and too often force a receiver to reach for them or even jump a little instead of hitting the receiver in the breadbasket so they can immediately start running.

That was one of the major flaws that I remember about Drew Bledsoe. He was constantly making the RB's adjust on swing passes. I haven't noticed that happening with Brady though.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Brady still ranked 7th in DVOA (6th if you don't count the limited sample size of Fitzpatrick) with a weak WR corps and washed Gronkowski. That's a lot better than how people portray him this season.

Yea id still say hes s top qb performance wise, which is still a drop off from what he was previously which was imo the clear cut best heading into this year. But still among the best

 

[SBLIII]

Yea id still say hes s top qb performance wise, which is still a drop off from what he was previously which was imo the clear cut best heading into this year. But still among the best

I agree but I think it's more about what's around him. I think he can be better next season if we draft a quality TE and WR even at 42.

 

[luuked]

Brady looked good, but he did miss open guys and made some poor reads. The question is why?

The first question is if the amount of times or the way how he missed those guys was significantly more often than on average. And only if that is a clear yes we need to proceed to the question why.

If he is well within his own average then all of this is the cost of playing NFL QB and nothing more than the usual statistical noise and a waste of time to do a deep dive on.

 

[Nunchucks]

The first question is if the amount of times or the way how he missed those guys was significantly more often than on average. And only if that is a clear yes we need to proceed to the question why.

If he is well within his own average then all of this is the cost of playing NFL QB and nothing more than the usual statistical noise and a waste of time to do a deep dive on.

I think the point is that Brady has rarely made the wrong reads in the past and he has done so much more frequently this year. If you kept up with the game analysis each week, Beddard points this out. Beddard also pointed out that in most of the KC game, Brady was his normal self and contrasts that with his play throughout this year. Brady is not up to his usual standard and that is the point.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think the point is that Brady has rarely made the wrong reads in the past and he has done so much more frequently this year. If you kept up with the game analysis each week, Beddard points this out. Beddard also pointed out that in most of the KC game, Brady was his normal self and contrasts that with his play throughout this year. Brady is not up to his usual standard and that is the point.

I think that is what other posters are challenging Bedard on. Hes implying that it's Brady and not the quality /change of players he is throwing to.

There is no question he has dealt with a lot of change.

8000 WR candidates in camp.
DA Gone
Cooks gone
Lewis gone
No Jules for 4 games and then integrating him
Diminished Gronk
Integrating Josh Gordon
Integrating Cord
White pulled back
Integrating Michel which might have impacted passing rhythm
No Burkhead for a while who he targeted 36 times last year

 

[luuked]

I think the point is that Brady has rarely made the wrong reads in the past and he has done so much more frequently this year. If you kept up with the game analysis each week, Beddard points this out. Beddard also pointed out that in most of the KC game, Brady was his normal self and contrasts that with his play throughout this year. Brady is not up to his usual standard and that is the point.

Bedard is only slightly ahead of Felger or Giardi when it comes to actual insight. He half asses his tape reviews and throws **** against the wall regularly to advance his narratives. Not to forget him still trying to make everyone forget his promise to investigate the LoyKKKo situation or trying to screw over other media members who dare to question him.

That being said, I have kept up with game analysis each week via the other numerous sources and to me Brady's issues are just being blown out of proportion. And keep in mind this comes from a guy who was criticizing Brady during the first half of the season for making brainfarty decisions.

Apart from that one really bad miss to Hogan there was next to nothing to be nitpicky about in the game against the Jets. I think people like to forget the amount of brainfarts Brady has had all across his career. They remember the improbable Saints comeback in 2013 but forget the bad INT he threw shortly before the 2min warning.

They remember him connecting to Gronk on those fourth downs in the AFCCG at Denver but forget the brainfarty INT he threw to Von Miller.

They remember our comeback against the Falcons but forget how high percentage of an INT that pass to Edelman was in the final drive. Or his two turnovers in the SB against the Seahawks.

He was never football Jesus that was infallible but made mistakes like others did as well. Just at a much lower rate than most other QBs.

Which brings me back to my point. The main question is if he is making those mistakes significantly more often than before. Because if he is well within his usual range over a sample size of multiple games then any deeper analysis is likely just delving through noise caused by the randomness inherent in the game.

 

[maineman209]

Yea id still say hes s top qb performance wise, which is still a drop off from what he was previously which was imo the clear cut best heading into this year. But still among the best

Here's the thing for me ...

In spite of all the trials and tribulations the 2018 offense has endured, personnel-wise, Brady's 2018 season stats aren't significantly different this season from what he did in 2014-2017.

Same thing with Gronk in the first six games before he hurt his back - no significant statistical difference from 2017 (a very good season for him).

Honestly, I believe what's happening is that the relentless dismal takes of the Negative Nancy's in the media (and elsewhere) have finally worn us down to the point where we're also constantly nitpicking Brady's game, and looking for "telltale signs", and relying on the "eyeball test" almost exclusively.

Stats aren't everything. However, when your "eyeball test" is telling you one story and the stats are telling you something quite different, that may be the time to take a step back and look at the forest in its entirety again.

Tom Brady Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[borg]

The question is why?

Soy Boy lifestyle starting to take its toll. Someone send the Brady’s a case of Omaha steaks

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Stats aren't everything. However, when your "eyeball test" is telling you one story and the stats are telling you something quite different, that may be the time to take a step back and look at the forest in its entirety again.

But that overlooks that there can be signs of decline that don't turn up in the usual stats.

For example, assume some QB has a completion rate of 68% in year 1 and in year 2 and similar yardage in both years. But that in year 1 one-tenth of his incompletions were off-target passes (passes that were to a specific receiver, not throwaways, but were a yard or three too short, too long, too much to one side, etc.) while in year 2 one-fifth of his incompletions were off-target passes. Or in year 1 the average reception point was 8 yards downfield but in year 2 the average reception point was 5 yards downfield. (Those are all totally made up numbers, BTW.)

There might be something going on there that completion percentage and passing yards aren't going to have visibility into. And of course there might not be. But I think it's very naive to look at the usual stats, see they're the roughly the same, and thus assume nothing's changed without looking deeper.

 

[maineman209]

But I think it's very naive to look at the usual stats, see they're the roughly the same, and thus assume nothing's changed without looking deeper.

I'm not assuming that "nothing's changed". I'm simply not limiting my examination of "what has changed" to just an eyeball test of Brady alone.

My point is that context is everything, and that leaving comparative stats out of the discussion - as well as leaving the changes in the state of receiving target personnel from week-to-week - make for a far less than complete context.

 

[Nunchucks]

Bedard is only slightly ahead of Felger or Giardi when it comes to actual insight. He half asses his tape reviews and throws **** against the wall regularly to advance his narratives. Not to forget him still trying to make everyone forget his promise to investigate the LoyKKKo situation or trying to screw over other media members who dare to question him.

That being said, I have kept up with game analysis each week via the other numerous sources and to me Brady's issues are just being blown out of proportion. And keep in mind this comes from a guy who was criticizing Brady during the first half of the season for making brainfarty decisions.

Apart from that one really bad miss to Hogan there was next to nothing to be nitpicky about in the game against the Jets. I think people like to forget the amount of brainfarts Brady has had all across his career. They remember the improbable Saints comeback in 2013 but forget the bad INT he threw shortly before the 2min warning.

They remember him connecting to Gronk on those fourth downs in the AFCCG at Denver but forget the brainfarty INT he threw to Von Miller.

They remember our comeback against the Falcons but forget how high percentage of an INT that pass to Edelman was in the final drive. Or his two turnovers in the SB against the Seahawks.

He was never football Jesus that was infallible but made mistakes like others did as well. Just at a much lower rate than most other QBs.

Which brings me back to my point. The main question is if he is making those mistakes significantly more often than before. Because if he is well within his usual range over a sample size of multiple games then any deeper analysis is likely just delving through noise caused by the randomness inherent in the game.

I think that the point I am trying to make is that Beddard has been doing his game analysis for two years. Last year, this kind of criticism didn't exist and he found is surprising to see Brady making these "misreads." He has answered your question.

Brady is playing well enough, but he isn't playing great. I think that is a fairly safe analysis based on how Brady has played this year. He hasn't been great. You can point to the stats all you want, but the truth is that Brady is not a top 5 QB this year. What happened? Did everybody else get better ? The answer is yes and no, it seems that defenses declined, why hasn't Brady feasted on bad defenses like these other QBs?

He did against KC.

 

[PatsFanNM]

If you really wanted to know all the mistakes or bad reads Brady made you would want to be listening to him and Belichick go over the Jets game -- they're certain to be much more critical and see a lot more than does Bedard or anyone here. Unfortunately, we don't get to hear that.

And they're also not talking about Brady's decline or comparisons to previous years. Only what he can do better in the next game. And what the team and coaches can do to enable that.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Here's the other half ...
BTW BSJ's coverage of not only the Patriots but the Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins & Revolution
is way worth the price of a subscription ... I got the 3 year and I enjoy it. There is also a comments section after each article and the writers will engage you at times ... good stuff over there. They work very hard at covering everything for every game and transactions.

Bedard's Breakdown: As regular season concludes, Tom Brady still not near his MVP level | Boston Sports Journal

14:10, second quarter: From the pistol, the Patriots fake the run into the line and Brady has Dorsett going into the flat and Chris Hogan running a go. The Patriots run a version of this play in different ways, normally faking the receiver screen. It’s designed to read the cornerback. If the corner plays the flat, Brady goes up top for the big play. If he goes with the vertical route, the flat is wide open. In this case, the corner plays Dorsett, leaving Hogan open. Brady still goes to Dorsett and nearly gets him killed for 4 yards.

12:43, second quarter: Rob Gronkowski may have run wrong route, as he’s the only receiver running away from Brady. But we’ve seen the Patriots run this type of play before. All Brady has to do is stop and throw back to a wide-open Gronk for the touchdown. Instead, Brady doesn’t even consider that and throws it away.

12:10, third quarter: Brady’s wide-open miss to Hogan in the end zone. I don’t recall ever seeing Brady miss that badly to a player right in front of him with no pressure on him. But brainfarts happen. I debated whether even to include it.

12:33, fourth quarter: Brady reacts to pressure that isn’t there and doesn’t throw to a wide-open Edelman to his right or White down the left sideline. He finally finds Hogan for 17 yards.

 

[Soliel]

If he plays this awful next game, we will be in the afc game. Hopefully, the horrible play continues and we hoist another Lombardi

 

[Deus Irae]

Might wanna reconsider the Gronk play:

Greg Bedard's analytical credibility hardest hit?

 

[Deus Irae]

You’re first two responses are inaccurate. Sometimes even a film viewer with limited knowledge can guess reads. It’s football not theoretical physics.

I didn’t hear Belichick say that. Let’s assume he did. What would we expect him to say? He does’t usually call out individual players and he shouldn’t.

I don’t think he’s in decline. Brady is either playing hurt or bothered by personnel changes or something else is up. I’m sure he’s dissecting his performance himself and will find a way to improve or correct it.

Nothing I posted was inaccurate, sorry.

 

[patfanken]

I get BSJ and really enjoy the more in depth coverage you get for all the sports. You don't have to agree with everything they write. That's what makes it so interesting. They are always trying to report what happens, and occasionally offer takes that make the reader think. Its not just throwing out a "hot take" and wait for the sh!t to hit the fan.

I thought Bedard's take, in this instance, was spot on. Brady was good, but not great in that game, Plus he takes the time to try and validate his position rather than just throw it out there. You certainly disagree with some of his analysis, like the missed Gronk throw, but overall his views were legitimate.

Remember Bedard isn't some newbie turning on his all 22. He's been doing this for several years. He's taken the time to look at film WITH NFL coaches so he can learn what's they are looking at.

I can tell you from a HS experience that I've been watching film with 4 of my staff, and sometimes get 3 different opinions from looking at a single play. (of course mine was the only one that counted ). Often it's all in the eye of the beholder

And DI, we are all entitled to an opinion, even if it disagrees with you.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I do not think anyone felt Brady was great in the JETS game. Brady was better than good, but great is probably too strong. It was just nice to see him moving in the pocket, rolling out and hitting a lot of his passes. We have seen him better, but that was good enough, and with a week of rest, we can hope that he is great for three playoff games (which rarely happens).

IMO, Bedard is "good at best", never great. I do not find it riveting analysis to show a picture of Brady rolling to his right and argue/discover that Brady could have stopped and thrown it across the field to a wide-open Gronk while getting nailed by a JETS D-lineman. Why Gronk was even running that route would be my question - not why didn't Brady throw it to him. It is a play about Gronk, not Brady. That is why Bedard is good at best - he only states what is obvious, what anyone could see watching the ALL22.

You can argue that Bedard is "better than good" because the other sports writers in town, by comparison, are lousy and lower the bar. Boston is a fun sports town, but the sports writing is limited. Now we have DJ Bean and Chris Forsberg so the needle is not pointing up.

I did not see where DI said others are not entitled to an opinion, he just very strongly disagrees at times. Strong discourse, including disagreement, is OK amongst us big girls and boys. Even a RED X for disagreement will "never hurt me" (Google sticks and stones).